Certainly it is positive tailwinds when it comes to thailand as we open up the market up a fifth of 1 , the thai baht is strengthening. Counting down to india we will see if the equity rally extends. Throughout the session, you are seeing multiasset risk on the table on the back of not just the fed, officials being less hawkish but signs of state lying when it comes to china. Rishaad you look at the ruby it is edging off lows as the dollar weakens and markets overall are higher. Asian shares rising. Thanks doing well given that the Sovereign Wealth Fund is buying 65 million u. S. Dollars into big banks. An oil price on the way down and well, what do we have . Interest rates, expectations, just being i suppose people are more optimistic, the glass looking helpful halffull. Yvonne we heard from christopher waller, Suzanne Collins from the boston fed on their outlook when it comes to rates. The real side of the economy seems to be doing well. The nominal side is the direction we want, so we will watch and see what happens. This transition to a patient approach, taking the time to assess information, was warranted. It reflects the fact that we are near and perhaps at the peak for the tightening cycle. With the risk of inflation remaining high, more closely balanced with slowing activity more than needed to achieve price stability. Rishaad those are the fed speakers and the focus is one of higher for longer but perhaps we will wait and see, maybe they are done. Yvonne im surprised by the messaging from the fed. Did not think they would talk about financial conditions but here we are, more than one have talked about how they have to reassess what this means when it comes to policy, so that is helping things. China markets rishaad weve seen stabilization taking place for the yuan, so that is perhaps down to the weaker dollar and that may be part of the reason for the rally in chinese markets. Weve got the bank story and lets get to the asian stocks managing editor with banks getting a much needed boost from the National Team you could argue. What happens next i guess . Yeah, so far people are not looking yonder the banks because if you look at all the market activities, they are surrounded about banks. Not just bank shares leading gains, were talking about traders actually actively accumulating core options at the big for banks in hong kong and the one most actively traded option is actually a core option. China Construction Bank stock price will rise 29 by the end of march so right now people really think of ways to benefit from this bank rally. Yvonne yeah, it seems like how much theyre buying is minimal. Its almost like a drop in the bucket but in terms of science and symbolism, that is kind of key here. Yeah, that is definitely right. All the people we spoke with are saying that in the near term it is very significant signal because it is the most direct intervention by the government because previously the government has done many things curbing ipos and cutting stacked duties but this is fresh funds in the market and buying shares, something people were asking for in the last two months or so. So right now it is a confidence booster but if you look at historically speaking in the past a handful of experiences where the fund went in, in terms of performance, they were down from where they bought the shares. Yvonne broadly speaking in asia what is driving the rally that we have seen . Mostly the fed discussion . We got earnings right around the corner. Earnings is one big thing people are watching out for. People are pessimistic about this season when it comes to china. Hsbc came out to say they are going to lower msci china target and they are pessimistic going into the fourth quarter. Broadly speaking, chip sector in asia is something we are looking out for because those are bellwether stocks and earnings showed positive signs and we have tsmc next week. That will show us that the chip bottoming cycle is here in the previous quarter. Rishaad thank you indeed, asia stocks managing director. Looking at this data point, a Producer Price of eight figures, how do they translate . In terms of estimates, indeed the inflation forecast in the core cpi number will be key here. 4. 1 is the estimate but we are looking at if we get a strong rate what does it mean . And stirring up the pot when it comes to thinking within the fomc . They talked about inflation for the september 21 meeting, this is what they had to say. It was dated but the first time all year that they did not mention the word recession. There were three mentions of term premium which is something the fed is watching. They also said the balance of risks seems to be twosided now between over and under tightening here. Many see Downside Risks to growth as well. Lets get perspective from the macro strategist at ubs wealth management. It is interesting why we see this risk rally. If u. S. Inflation comes out tonight and it is hot, does that keep the dollar party going . Yeah, i think it could throw a spanner in the works but from the pbi last night, stronger than expected. Rising Energy Prices in the month of september. Core cpi is in line with expectations so i think the readthrough is that while you might get cpi rising, the. 3 month on month, it will be quite stable at. 2 or. 3 and that is what the market is thinking about. If the month on month is. 4,. 5, the dollar effect that weve seen should be based on that if the fed starts pricing. Rishaad premiums are in focus. What is up telling you . Tells us that the fed cares about tightening financial conditions, the longer end of the curve as well and to the extent that the long and has risen significantly since the september meeting, i think the fed pays attention to that. Like what mary daly said last week, she believes that the rising is equivalent to the 25 basis point rate hike. That is the calculus of the speakers we have seen in the 28 hours and a key reason why we believe the benefit is not hiking in the benefit cycle. Yvonne you think that dollar could be a good bid until the end of the year. Im wondering when it comes to a pet currencies, weve seen headwinds, are they likely to persist, how are you adjusting your forecast . I think our view for the Dollar Strength to the year and is built on the fact that while there is a change of tone from the fed, it is not dovish. It is hawkish, holding rates higher for longer. Catalyst for us to expect the turning point of the dollar is toward the mixture we get evidence that the u. S. Economy is slowing. Were getting help from the china growth dynamics where the previous month we did not. So we would watch how it is continuing with next weeks data. The turning point for asian currencies would be the early part of next year and we believe it should betroth thing in the coming months but have a modest recovery starting from next year onwards. Rishaad i mean from what you are saying, it would seem that youve got the dollar at an inflection point. Is it . Yeah, that is what we are saying. I think we tend to look out the Dollar Strength as a function of the diverging growth dynamics between asia and the u. S. The u. S. Has been strong and that is reflected in the rising yields and at this point in time is fair to say the u. S. Yields are overshooting for technical reasons and by the same time next year, we expect a much lower profile when the economy starts to slow, when you get past the issuance, then would come along dollars to provide relief not just for asian currencies but developed currencies as well. Yvonne ok, in which stand to outperform . Where could we stand to see pressure across asia . I would say for the next two to three months, the dominant driver is around if the u. S. Use will be elevated for longer. There is upside risk even though it pulled back. The more vulnerable it is within asia would be those that has a current account deficit and the likes of the philippine peso which has a growing deficit at this point in time. One benefit on the other hand would be the beneficiaries. Outside of asia, there is the norwegian krone. The Australian Dollar has an opportunity given that we are looking out for Infrastructure Spending from the Chinese Government and the relationship, so the aussie stands as one of our frequent currencies. Rishaad just wanted to talk to about japan as well. We had a leak to report of course about them thinking deflation would hit 3 . The thing is if it did and it is true, what would it do to their policy if it is true us well . What would it mean for the bond market because they would have no choice but to abandon the Monetary Policy they have been pursuing . Yeah, the excitement around boj policy for this year has been disappointing. Theres been occasional speculation and changes in thinking and the reality is more conservative. Even if they were to signal that inflation is hitting a target, toward fiscal year 24 and 25, they would taper down. The reaction on the yen might be limited especially in the context where if you think about july, that you cap for the 10 year yield, the speed would increase. So that would happen again if they were to raise it. Yvonne ok, year and 145 for the dollaryen yen and 146 only get to september. Rishaad ubs wealth management. Lets have a look at what is happening. Goldman sachs sues malaysia in Arbitration Court in london over the 1mdb fund scandal. It got a task force looking at this and responding to the lawsuit. They view goldmans actions as premature and they will take action to ensure the interests of malaysians are safeguarded so that is the latest. Breaking on toshiba. Yvonne we followed this for years, the toshiba story. They will be delisting from the Tokyo Stock Exchange on december 20, so about two months from now, they will hold a Shareholders Meeting on november 22, cancel 543,000 or more shares on the 21st of december but that is the latest on toshiba. Rishaad coming up tcs earnings short and they concerning economy that could curtail tech spending. For joined by the coo later on. Yvonne Israeli Defense minister is bowing to wipe hamas off the face of the earth. The possible ground offensive in gaza next, this is bloomberg. My sister has told me so much about you. Thats why its more than advice worth listening to. Its advice worth talking about. Ameriprise financial. Dramatic music [flight attendant alert] [baby crying] [snoring] [luggage rattling] [baby crying] dramatic music upbeat music begins for everyone whos endured the bad seat, finally, sweet, sweet redemption. The lexus tx. Threerow luxury that treats every seat like the best seat. i spoke with Prime Minister netanyahu i dont know how many times but again this morning and already we are searching additional assistance. Replenishing the iron dome and removed a u. S. Carrier fleet to the mediterranean. We are sending more fighter jets and we made it clear, made it clear to the iranians, be careful. We expected china to say much more. We expected china to mention hamasatrocities or condemned terrorist attacks. We expected china to Say Something about the need of israel to protect itself and bring selfdefense. This did not come from beijing, not yet. China is a member of the Security Council and we think it should act responsibly. Yvonne President Biden outlining military support for israel and issuing a warning to iran. The ambassador speaking about chinas response to the hamas attacks. Antony blinken says he is bringing a message that the United States has israels back as he heads to tel aviv after the assault by hamas. Joining us is bloombergs oliver crook. Where do we stand this morning . This is exactly as you mentioned, the political dimension has been the formation of the war cabinet, the wartime government bringing in the opposition so he presides over this cabinet that will include his minister but the x defense minister and leader of the opposition. All normal government business will be suspended, no bills, nothing outside of the war effort and this comes after the attack that left 1200 is really stead. We heard from netanyahu, how to listen. How they listen have a listen. We are fighting with all of our strength, we went on the offensive. Hamas is isis and it will be crushed and eliminated just as the world crushed and eliminated isis. Those attacks are underway we understand an hour and a half ago the is really defense source force executing attacks and they have been pummeling gaza since saturday, since the attacks. It has left more than 1000 palestinians dead and there is no water, food, electricity, so it is desperate on the ground. Rishaad whats it like on the ground and what is next . What is next is Antony Blinken arrives to shore up support for israel and key Political Support but we have 300,000 reservists brought out and they need equipment. Of course the question is not if or when the israelis will move in on gaza, this will be the key question this morning. Rishaad good stuff, oliver crook in tel aviv. Lets turn to former secretary Larry Summers saying the Global Impact of the conflict will not be as large and long as conflict. It may cause investors to move into haven assets in the short term. If it does not spread, i do not think the global Macro Economic consequences will be large. There may be positive impact on the price of oil, there may be tendency to move to safe havens, like u. S. Bonds. The effects will not be large as long as this conflict stays contained but we do not really know about the iranian nexus with respect to this conflict. We do not know about the possibility of spread involving hezbollah, so i do not think we can be confident as yet that the conflict will remain contained as much as we might hope. There can be no excuse for some of the things coming out of gaza. There are underlying issues on the west bank and gaza, do you see any room for hope that maybe there could be progress . Look, you never know and it is often darkest before the dawn. I am no expert on the politics of that region but it seems to me terribly important to distinguish hamas, a creature of terror committed to the destruction of the state of israel from many palestinians who have legitimate claims about the lives they have been forced to lead and i hope that a pertinent israel will give no quarter to hamas terror but will at the same time recognize that there are many palestinians who do not stand with hamas terror and that peace depends on arrangements that reflect their need to live lives with opportunity and security. Yvonne former u. S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers speaking with david westin. Plenty more ahead, this is bloomberg. Yvonne a beautiful shot of the hong kong harbor this morning and it is a good day when it comes to hong kong markets. We are in the longest winning streak since july for the hang seng and it is the financials that are driving the gains. Icbc, china construction, china and up 5 this morning and we are watching bonds. Rishaad this is off the back of fed minutes which are backward looking but yields have been falling back. Have we seen the bottom of the bond market is the question people are asking. What are the takeaways from that federal reserv when people come, they say theyve tried lots of diets, nothings worked or theyve lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. They need a real solution. Ive always fought with 510 pounds all the time. Eating all these Different Things and nothings ever working. Ive done the diets, all the diets. 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The rocket fund takes all of the work that were doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. The idea that we have saved five Million Peoples lives, its overwhelming. Its everything. Rishaad look at shanghai at the moment, looking at an unchanged currency and equities as we go into the lunch break being up and largely material stocks that are responsible for that. That is the csi 300 up, to the relief of beleaguered stock investors. Lets have a look at the different Industry Groups which are making moves here. The only one which is showing weakness is energy, and that even is it there . Gaming is down by. 5 , financials, materials and industrials are moving to the upside as we head into the lunch break which has just about to be gone begun. Hong kong asking in the positive mood we are seeing on the mainland. As china goes off for lunch, japan returns from theirs. Yvonne this is how the reopen of the japanese market is looking this morning. We have been talking about the solid gains throughout the morning session, up 1. 4 in tokyo. And the yen seems to have stabilized, we have to talk about earnings coming out. We are watching toshiba, the announcement method to the listing the delisting. We talked about how the earnings season is underway. U. S. Kicks off tomorrow with the banks and japan today, fast retail. Lets get a preview. Rishaad fast retailing saw good numbers last time. Can they repeat that . Guest apparently many Market Players seem to think that is possible. If you look up the price performance, they did quite well , some people think that reflect how bullish markets are. The main source of their growth is overseas business. The last time the u. S. Business was very strong. This time Market Players expect china to do better because of the reopening there. That said, one of the most interesting events for many Market Players is in this earnings call, the companies companys new ceo will be speaking. He is the key architect of fast really fast retailings u. S. Business. That is something to keep an eye on. In terms of possible risks, the yens weakness could be a negative factor. But overall Market Players seem to be confident that the fast retailing could deliver good results this time. It is the second biggest retailer in terms of market capped market cap. It is Important Company for investors. Investors have been last upbeat about this company. Its share prices have not risen much at all which is an underperformance given that accessories is more than 20 so far this year. The last earnings from seven i was also disappointing for many investors because it is a u. S. Business its u. S. Business was a bit sort of downbeat. Mainly because of costs overrun. Investors are still a little bit nervous about how its u. S. Operation is doing. Yvonne thank you, our senior asia stock reporter on what to look out for when it comes to the retailers that they report this week. Birkenstock shares sank in new york after their 1. 5 billion ipo. It is the worst first day showing in over two years for a u. S. Listing above 1 billion. Goldman sachs has agreed to sell its installment lending unit greensky to a group led by six street partners. It is exciting to take a hit to Third Quarter earnings. It prepares to sell the unit. Microsoft says it will appeal an irs ruling that it owes 29 billion in taxes, it relates to how microsoft allocated income and expenses among global subsidiaries. The company says it believes it acted in accordance with irs rules and regulations and its position is supported by case law. Rishaad lets show the show you what we have, we are looking at the indian tech consultancy industry, tcs latest earnings falling shy. This is bloomberg. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Rishaad we are looking at futures unchanged and looking at the rupee which is largely sort of their but just coming away from those record lows. A move to the downside by about overnight. We are looking at what is going on in the tech space, and Tata Consultancy services kicking off earnings for the i. T. Sector in india. A bit short of analyst expectations. Lets get to in mumbai. Guest middle and earnings, a sluggish quarter, a reflection of what Global Demand looks like. Let me go through the highlights. Revenue growth has come in week, in dollar terms it has declined. This is the First Time Since the main covid quarter in 2020, it is up. 5 percent. The ceo of tcs acknowledging that the i. T. Industry growth has moderated on the Global Economic outlook. Why that is not translating into revenue momentum is the question we can put to the management in a few minutes. Prophet missed bloomberg estimates by a bit, some improvement in margin. That is mostly because tcs has contracted its workforce. Not layoffs, but they hired less than the attrition they saw. The final point i want to leave with you is that it announced a buyback. The buyback size of 170 billion rupees is smaller than the one they did last year. 100,000 strong food of strong pool of ai consultants standby to grow the business. A quick headsup on what to expect from that i. T. Bellwether, set to report its lowest Revenue Growth in five years. There could be some improvement in rupee terms because of the depreciation. The street will be watching to see if there is further downward adjustment to its revenue forecast, which they cut last quarter. Yvonne stay there, we will have more. We have the coo of Tata Consultancy services joining us. It seems like growth has slowed down, what is your outlook like looking forward . Can it continue to impact tech spending and is there any sort of hope of demand reviving . Natarajan i think customers across the globe are concerned about the macroeconomic uncertainties in the geopolitical risks which are clearly in place on their mind. In terms of other bookings, we have had three consecutive quarters of more than 10 billion. Which we are executing well, the rampup of the new plans on these project are in line. We have a couple of programs we exhibited, that came to completion in this quarter, which meant that your typical revenue we take from those projects that reduced. It present a muted Revenue Growth for this quarter. However the margin sequentially as well as 1. 3 billion has meant it is credible part of the circumstances. Menaka explain how come we are seeing a reasonable rise in the automobile, but that is not translating into Revenue Growth . Natarajan those projects are translating into Revenue Growth, but customers take on every quarter. I want so many people, so many resources, those kind of shortterm calls they are not taking. Except in cases like i want a proof of concept, proof of value. But overall i think the net projects that are going out, there is a revenue reduction that happens, and how much we are able to put on top of it on executing the days that we want. There is an imbalance that we see in this quarter. Likely to continue into the next quarter as well given that it is the year and for most of our customers, traditionally it is a we quarter it is a weak quarter. Menaka can i press you more on that . Our clients are clients saying they would like to extend the delivery date as a result of financial pressure or not very keen to spend at this point in time . Natarajan typically those timelines are generally accepted at the time of contracting. The longterm projects, growth and transformation projects, they are being executed and they are doing good. Some of the projects we started 4. 5 years ago, that is a step back and see, what does generative ai mean menaka they are dealing some of the project execution, is it on account of the economic environment . Natarajan i dont think they are delaying, they may recalibrate. But i will not call it a trend that happens. Rishaad i want to get a sense of what your results and your company can tell us about the state of the global economy, the hotspots where you are feeling it and where there has been a surprise to the upside or the downside. Natarajan the Economic Situation is playing out in their mind quite a bit. While everyone acknowledges the economy seems to be resilient, some recessionary or inflationary trends, the growth projections they are seeing in the market is below the global average. Which creates a cautionary sentiment in terms of which one they should pause and take a step back. The focus is on if the return on investments on projects is visible on something that can be delivered in one or two quarters, those projects are being taken up. And the return on investment will take more than two quarters, and then they would much rather wait. It is a broad sentiment in the i. T. Industry that i see today. Yvonne how is your business in the u. S. . This is an economy where inflation Interest Rates are continuing to be high. Are you seeing pricing pressures in that market . Natarajan pricing is somewhat stable, some of the strategic calls we take, especially in new technologies and affects related to and things like that. But the demand is under pressure in the u. S. Market. It is a tad low then what we normally use to do on a quarter upon quarter basis. The demand is there, but the return on investment on projects needs to be within the next one and a half to two quarters. Otherwise they are being taken a pass. Rishaad what about europe . The u. K. Was a surprise last time we talked. The u. K. Continues to do well for us. But europe continues to be a challenging market. It is doing well and we see signs of it turning around. Other countries are a larger question and people are not taking decisions on the large programs. Primarily wait and watch and they want to see how this geopolitical situation and the war situation is going to move forward. And while we have seen that some green shoots in europe have grown compared to the last quarter, which is something that we see after three or four quarters, there are dangers but we have to wait and see. Menaka you have about 6,300 seats as a contraction of your workforce, will we see a deeper contraction . You have 100,000 jen ai trained employees, what is the revenue potential of that . Ganapathy if you look at wherein when attrition was heavy, we hired a lot from the market in the last 1214 months, we had less pressures. They have all been trained and have been brought into the mainstream. Given the current quarter, what happened was there is enough to meet the man to meet demand that we had. We continued to hire as we needed in the marketplace but then the number of people who left us versus the number of people menaka sorry to interrupt, will you be cutting the workforce further in terms of hiring less than attrition the next few quarters . Ganapathy we have not cut workforce, it is just natural people who choose to leave tcs. We continue to hire, talent from universities abroad, all of that is part of our plans. Rishaad always a pleasure, Natarajan Ganapathy subramaniam of Tata Consultancy services. You can get all of the latest updates on all things india, menaka has a newsletter, you can subtract to our india addition newsletter. Yvonne the tech sector in focus after what we heard from tcs, hcl tech, such a report. It is a slow start when it comes to the indian markets, slightly up compared to the rest of the region. Tcs shares lower by. 8 . We saw Inflation Numbers coming out from the India Government when it comes to september so we will see how that plays out for the rest of the session. Plenty more ahead, this is bloomberg. background noises this is a clustomer. Hello its what happens when Marketers Group customers with very different behaviors. Into one tangled mess. This is a mess with mailchimp, marketers can use realtime behavior data, to personalize every email for every customer. Turning clustomers, into customers. Intuit mailchimp. The 1 email marketing and automation platform. Rishaad u. S. Futures looking like this, this could all change when we get the Inflation Report , it could mean we accelerate the gains or it could go in the other direction. All bets are off. Yvonne then there are earnings on friday with banks kicking things off. Really starting off things when it comes to the lenders. Next week it is bank of america, morgan stanley, the first to show really see if it confirms the optimism many wall street analysts are looking at on the u. S. Earnings season. Rishaad lets have a look at what citigroup says about the lender as it works towards streamlining its operations. Expecting a simpler bank in two years. He talked at the imf in marrakech. Lets see how he is handling the restructuring. This is something that jane has been thoughtful about and decisive about. And laid out this vision for simplifying the bank, it had been on a path like that to really much more simplify the bank. Starting out with divestitures of our nonus consumer businesses, which we had all over the world, particularly in asia. And secondly in spending a good bit of time transforming our risk in controls in the operations and technology, supporting them. And getting that underway. This is what i would describe as the third leg of that stool of change to simplify the company and it follows from the other two. By getting rid of and having divesting, we do not need to the same significant geographic managerial layers that otherwise were there, so it is getting rid of those. And bringing core businesses closer. In two years i am getting to the answer to your question in a couple years i think we believe it will be a simpler bank. Our expenses will go down, our revenues will go up as a result of being simpler and i think you will really those cost will begin to start coming down. You have also sold a big chunk of a china unit, does that impact your ability to serve its clients . No not at all. That is a very smooth transition we are going through. We have had now coming on nine closings of nine u. S. Consumer businesses. I am pleased to say they have gone very smoothly. And we have gotten good premiums for the ones that have closed. And in some other cases we have had to engage in wind and downs of the business. China is one of them. This works the ability to smoothly sell a chunk of the business, so all of that is going very well and our business that remains behind, our core institutional business that we have all over the world, is operating very smoothly, in fact it is making it easier. Because of the changes in restructuring, do you have a final number in job cuts . No we dont, jane is quite decisive about the direction she wants to go but she is specific about doing it in the right sequence. This is not about hitting a number, it is about making sure we get the rolls right to simply fight the company to get the most efficient is this. Those numbers will come over time but we are not targeting a particular number. Yvonne the citigroup chair in marrakech. I decent day when it comes to risk assets as we count down to the u. S. Inflation print. Equities are up led by the likes of japan and hong kong, up close to 2 in the city. Given the news of the state banks buying in on these lenders. Commodities are doing well. The dollar is mixed but we are still on course for a seventh straight day of declines, and yield heading lower for the most point. The most part. Rishaad taking you now to daybreak middle east and africa, coming your way. This is bloomberg. ® app. Use it to set and track your goals, big and small. And see how changes you make today. Could help put them within reach. From your first big move to retiring poolside and the other goals along the way. Wealth plan can help get you there. J. P. Morgan wealth management. Explore endless design possibilities. To find your personal style. Endless hardie® siding colors. Textures and styles. Its possible. With james hardie™. The power goes out and we still have wifi its possible. To do our homework. And thats a good thing . Great in my book who are you . No power . No problem. 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