Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703

Off of the highest of the year. We will see a 10 drop, a correction until we are done around 4100 but we are headed in that direction. U. S. 10 year yield coming up. Yesterday morning we saw the 10 year go to 4888. Across the curve, the rise in yields has been the story and it is fascinating. Bloomberg and dollar index coming down, 1,274. Mainly as we have seen yet and against the u. S. Dollar and the nymex crude, what an incredible reversal this has been. Last week were up over 95 a barrel and now we are down to 82 and 77 since. Lots going on in price action across assets and in terms of the macro picture, San Francisco fed president mar ly spoke about how these high yields are affecting her thinking about the banks Interest Rate path. The bond market has tightened considerably. 36 basis points since we met in september. That is equivalent to about a rate hike. The need to do tightening additionally is not there. Matt mike mckee who covers all things fed. One possibility as to why yields has bike so much higher in recent weeks is the market finally leaves the feds narrative that they are going to go higher and hold for longer. Would you take from lisas interview with mary daly . Mike mary daly think it is a good possibility, not the only reason out there people are thinking yields spiked up, but the fact that they have does the feds job for it. If the rates they about where they are, the fed would not have to do that last rate hike, they put in the dot plot for 2023. Matt what are we expect om the fed. With a whole stud at these levels . Weverd similar to what daly was saying from others in terms of passive tightening, as long as inflation continues to come down, the real yield is higher . Mike that is what it looks like for right now and that is the anticipation we have to see if inflation comes down, daly speaking cautiously saying it is going to be a slow process, it is going to take a while to get to 2 and the fed is committed to doing that. They get to thousand 20 four and they see this passive tightening of real rates has really affected financial conditions they might look at whether or not we should cut rates a bit to keep the same amount of pressure on the economy. At this point, they are going to leave rates where they are. Thats what they want the market to take away. Matt is the concern we see something break again like we did with svb and the other Regional Banks in march . Mike there is a concern, but it is something they are supposed to be concerned about. She said the banks are in better shape and they have looked at a lot of banks. Ve made foion likeations they this where their assets decline in value she did not thin igoing to be a major problem and again she went back to svb saying it ws unique situation. Matt im looking at the whisper number on the terminal. For the nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow. How important is this . What you think, the survey is 170 and whisper is 188 . Mike it is interesting because the numbers we got this week, adp numbers suggesting there might be weakness in the overall nonfarm payroll numbers. The market does not think so. The market is learning into a stronger economy. Daly was asked that and said she does not see any alarm bells ringing about the economy and that there has been a slow down but theres no cliff u. S. Economy is going off in terms of hiring. She is not worry about it and things are proceeding as they should be. The interesting thing tomorrow if that whisper number stays where it is, is will the markets react, if we get a very weak or strong number . Two they think is going to be stronger than consensus. I will be here for that. Matt we will what you live tomorrow. Buy now Pay Later Services will hit a record high this season according to adobe. Leslie patent has the details. We are gearing up for the Holiday Season at a time when consumers are getting putting more on credit card, glinka sees going higher on credit cards deliquencies are going higher on credit cards. We are seeing a number of things,. Inflation is still out there. It is moderating but we are so see higher prices for some of those basic goods like food and essentials, Charlie Hebdo toilet paper. We are going to see people utilize the buy now pay later vice from amazon, spread out the payment is to the pink it up front. Instead of paying it up front. Matt what are shoppers going to do, are they going to try to use less gas . Are they going to try to drink cheaper wine . What else are you hearing . Leslie people are going to be willing to pay for a premium or expedited shipping. Theyre going to do standard shipping, way longer, or even drive to the store, just to save a few dollars. Were going to on buying the essentials and practical gifts this year, instead higher ticket items. Matt are there any bright spots for this Holiday Season the . Are there any retailers that are going to have big benefits . Leslie we are still going to see the occasional splurge in certain areas but some of the big ticket items are going to be pressured, maybe we see people so i reached on fancy food for holiday dinner and some of the retailers that are likely to benefit from this number may be not surprise you, but discounters like walmart and t. J. Maxx or marshalls or apparel. Matt in the past, the worry about inflation is it makes things too expensive. Deflation people go out and get stuck because they think prices will go higher. Is it something you are hearing from shoppers this Holiday Season . Leslie people are going to be looking for discounts. Maybe they will splurge during that week period when that since to have the steepest discounts. Buying extra toys or things like that to get next year but i think the important point is people are going to be more constrained this year. Matt thank talking to us about the consumer, Holiday Shopping season, and retailers. Think of, kkr Peter Stavros sits down with nali basak as part redit becomes a huge part of not only the pe business but global wall street. This is bloomberg. Matt this is bloomberg markets. Kkr cohead of Global Equities says the greatest concerns for ceos right now is retaining talent. Heres some of his conversation about dealmaking in 2023 including acquisition of Simon Schuster with sonali basak. Peter in every control reaction in u. S. We rolled this model out which is about employee ownership, giving people a voice, teach financial literacy. That the package of what we are doing. At Simon Schuster, keep in mind this was a very small part of a very big company, paramount, so we got this opportunity to create our own culture. This is going to be its own standalone business and a part of the culture is going to be around inclusion and around, not just financial inclusion, but again making people feel they understand what is going on with the company, how they contribute. How we develop the plan to create value we will do it with the entirety of the workforce. Sonali how much of this comes with understanding that the employees are one critical way to get returns . In this era, people are worried about the return pipe out of private equity moving forward. Where do you find returns in the era where the average is not as cheap as it used to be . Peter returns have got to come from doing Something Different with the business. I do not think you can predict where the economy is going. It is so complicated and so interrelated with other global economy. As a private equity firm you can create offal and outperform the Public Markets by dramatically improving the operations of the company. What is that dont like . We by manufacturing businesses and we work through everyone in the company to drive productivity in the plant, improve ontime delivery, Customer Satisfaction and a million Little Things we do to move the needle. Were going to do that with everyone. That is a part of how we deliver our performance in our investments. Sonali im sitting with you on the date the market has been shaky. Rates have been soaring. One of the Biggest Challenges you are facing as a private Equity Investors today . Peter this environment is when private equity outperforms the most. Public markets do amazing well liked 20102019. But markets are sideways and Public Markets are not doing as well, the further you go to that side of the Public Market, the upper forms of private equity expands. It is because if you do not have a rising tide where everyone is doing well, the operational improvement shines through and carries. I think its a great time to be investing in private equity. What are the challenges . Each house has a flipside which is is an opportunity. Theres less leveraged available. It suppresses purchase prices. People are uncertain about where the world is going. You have less competition because everyone is on their heels. Do not try to time the market but evenly deployed private equity fund over five years and remove that vintage risk. In my view you will outperform. Sonali what does the market look like to you to deploy new capital of next six months . Peter in you as we have done two carveouts. We are just staying on that steady pace. We have done most of probably what were going to do in United States. My partner and i oversee asia and europe. We got more investing we are going to do in those regions. We are going to stick with the plan which is find good businesses that have untapped opportunity, part of the ceo and entirety of the workforce to dry the changes. Sonali when you talk to the banking side of the industry they say next year. What is challenging about the rest of 2023 . Peter when i made that comment i was purring to we can hit our linear pacing guidelines for the United States kind of hits our linear pacing guidelines for the United States. Who knows where rates are going from here, not that much financial leverage. I think what we are getting past is this reluctance to sell. There was a period of time where people were looking back two years and saying this was going to be such a stellar investment for me to let go of it for anything other than what i had in my mind two years ago is hard to do. I think we cross that bridge, particularly in the Public Markets. Even in private markets i think the pages turning and people are saying i am resetting my expectations on what we are going to get for the business. Sonali theres been a lot of questions about the price of labor, the availability of labor. What is it look like for you because your portfolio today . Peter the National Association of manufacturers does a survey every quarter with a ceos what you must worried about. For the first time maybe ever the number one issue is ceos are saying i am worried about my ability to attract and retain talent. That concerns me more than supply chain. That is the biggest problem. Were going to be demographics are one of those things is happening to us so slowly that people are numb to it. We have a demographic problem. Were going to be short just in manufacturing, 2 million workers by 2030. Baby boomers fully retired by 2030. The birth rate is way down from decades ago. Immigration is down. How are we going to get there . Harvey going to go economically and part of it is we have to get Labor Participation rate back up and part of that is where we started, with the contract with labor . You want people to work and get off the sidelines, it is not to be more than what theyre getting now. I always say this as part of a different kind of way of operating, i think it can really matter. Matt sonali basak joyce is unse joins us on set. It is fascinating what he is saying. He is saying. Hes saying the demographic changes are happening so slowly we become numb to it. How important is that for the labor picture . Sonali he sounds a lot like his colleague who talks about the longterm labor challenges and also the labor strikes we see across the country. He says the social contract is broken. The think about the auto workers, you have a question of wages and negotiations, they are worried about what their ceos are making. A lot of this ceos getting their compensation in stock and employees do not have access to that kind of equity based programs. He gave us an example today about how a truck driver they had worked with was able to get a package virtual when million grew to 1 million by the end of it. It happens when you are growing companies and allowing those employees to also grow along with it. Matt what do they say about dlmaking . Everyone is waiting for it to come back. How is his view of that . Sonali where he is sitting is interesting. Kkr private equity business the largest of all their businesses. He says they are pretty much done for the year for the United States so they have done meaningful bills. Deals. These deals where you are carving out of companies or by Public Market are still attractive deals as much as valuations come down. Probably for the year you are not going to see a lot more in United States but more outside of it. Matt private equity, a lot of these big private equity shops have become private credit shops. I know they have not been completely overtaken by that but they are doing private credit as well. Sonali most of their rivals have been seeing their other businesses grow to be larger part of the pie. Kkr, the secondbiggest business is really state. You considered real estate separate from private credit are the same . Think about the Regional Bank system and you see commercial real estate loans be some the biggest areas were companies to step up in private credit and up to the floor. You take a private credit end of the state together, kkr, blackstone, apollo, they are way bigger than the private equity businesses. Are the prices in debt market frothy . Time will tell. Kkr pitching it self is a bigger finance or for the picture leveraged buyout is happening. Leveraged buyouts have to work out for these packages to make sense. That the looming question underneath the market for kkr. Matt great to have you. Sonali basak interviews the most important people on wall street and we are glad she brings them here to us. Lets vehicle adoption electric vehicle adoption hits a Tipping Point in u. S. , or has it . Talk about that its really a thinker. This is bloomberg. That first time you take a step back. I made that. With your very own online store. I sold that. And you can manage it all in one place. I built this. And it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. Godaddy. Matt this is bloomberg markets. Electric cars sales are on the rise in the u. S. And it is true outside of california as well. New energy finance, ev presented atleast 10 of all new passenger ca les in the first have of 2023. And you andrew grant joins us. This makes sense because i some on the right would say, the government is shoving them down our throats, subsidizing them and trying to push eb sales so is that working . The early stage of any market , need a policy push to get it going. We have seen that was you hit a certain threshold of electric vehicles you can Start Building back on some of those heavyhanded incentives. Then let the market start taking care of itself. I will mention china which in august had 38 of Passenger Car sales being of the electric variety, that is after they removed a lot of purchase incentive. It seems there is a threshold that can push the market forward. Matt in china, there are over 100 ev producers. That is the supply. What is the demand look like here in the u. S. . A lot of people expected 5 to be the Tipping Point. I guess youre looking for a 10 . What is the point you could take away, in the state, subsidies totaling almost 10,000 per vehicle, and still expect americans to buy these electric vehicles . Andrew the only clean answer for you there is independence on which segment it depends on which segment, which states, the income and gdp. Even some information we found around the political meetings within a certain state will influence how electric vehicles are adopted. There is no clean point. Somewhere between 5 and 10 we believe at the moment but it will vary signifiantly depending on what vehicles are in the market and what consumers are actually wanting to buy. Matt may be safer if we had a bible Autonomous Vehicles because so many people are killed in viable Autonomous Vehicles because so many people are killed in accidents. When do you see the rollout of Autonomous Vehicles . Andrew early stages of Autonomous Vehicles that are taking place in cities like austin, San Francisco, from Companies Like waymo. But what is more interesting in term getting Passenger Cars into consumer hands is the consistent interest that automakers have had is the advanced Driver Assistance Systems and partial Autonomous Vehicles. These are ways they can get vehicles to stand out. In a crowded ledge Vehicle Market with lots of vehicles on offer. Matt great to hear from you. Andrew grant talking to us about evs and Autonomous Vehicles. This is bloomberg. Welcome to bloomberg markets. A quick check on the market is at this hour. We are still seeing a sell all vstoxx. S p 500 done about half a percent. We are seeing yields retreat a little bit as investors buy these bonds, 10 year right now trading under 4. 71. Yesterday we saw it it for 88 so costly curve we saw yields take off and yesterday, today they are moderating as investors by that dip. Bloomberg and dollar index still coming down. 1,273. It is mostly from Dollar Strength against the japanese yen. Nymex crude real turnaround. Last week we saw it go up through 95 a barrel. Right now trading down at 82. 59. Jon classic correction definition, certainly that seems to be with the reality with the price of oil. Individual stocks we are tracking. We are seeing both onetwo punch, the guided story and the need to raise more funds. Lucid, cheaper version of this sedan seems to be wearing investors that demand for products is not as robust as what you would like. You get to be more competitive on the price front. A couple other names for your tracking throughout the session. Clorox, the Financial Reality of a cyber attack, the outlook for the company is being impacted. By that. The shares are down 7 in response what the company had to say. On the other side, adjusting story, it is up about 10 . For the resilient fairly resilient the business. Matt a couple of interesting economy stocks. The labor strife continues in the u. S. With tens of thousands of Health Care Workers striking across the country as well as the uaw strikes we always talk about. Kkr Peter Stavros thinks theres been a shift in expectations between employers and workers. I think the social contract is broken. Your hearing from workers, they need fair wages and benefits, particularly the inflationary environment we are in. They want more voice in their work. They want to feel trusted and respected in the workplace. I think ownership is not going to solve all of our problems, but i think it is a part of a new social contract,. Jon more than 75 thousand Kaiser Permanente workers walked out for a three day strike against the Health Care Provider and could install services for nearly 13 Million People in the United States. Health care workers on strike to demand better safer care for patience and living wages for frontline workers. Lets bring in Service Employees International Union International President Mary Kay Henry for some perspective. Maybe you can outline for us what has been the key concern from your vantage point. Mary kay Kaiser Permanente workers are burned out and fed up. They want kaiser to adjust the staffing crisis and ensure they can deliver safe patient care to every kaiser member and have living wages for frontline workers that carried us through the pandemic. I think you know kaiser made 3 billion in profits just in the first half of 2023. We are fully backing the demands of the 75,000 Health Care Workers there on strike. Matt two very important emphasis between this strike and that of uaw. Not that cars are not important, but these workers are truly essential. The workers you represent are at hospitals, nursing homes, als teachers and schools and universities, cops. We need these kinds of workers. In terms of the Kaiser Permanente strike, it is not just about the workers and what they want, there are also worried about their patience. Tell us about that separate part of it. What is the concern about patient care that seiu workers do not think is good enough . Mary kay if there are not enough staff in the or, patients who finish their surgery cannot be transported into the Recovery Room quickly enough for the surgical room to be cleaned and sterilized for the next patient so everything backs up. That is one example of thousands of examples i could give you. With short staffing impacts patient care. That is why workers who have been bargaining for months and did not want to go on strike, finally felt like they had to take strike action in order to get kaiser to bargain in good faith to address the staffing crisis and to raise frontline wages. Matt are you hearing concerns from patients . In that kind of scenario, Kaiser Permanente, if they are your insurer, they are responsible for making sure there is enough staff and if you get an infection because they have understaffed o. R. s, i would guess they are liable to be sued. Mary kay many kaiser patients stand in solidarity with the demands workers are making because they experience over the past three years since we came out of Global Health pandemic and people have returned to regular preventative care, they have experience the Staffing Shortages by longer wait times in clinics and on the phone or inability to get from the e. R. To the floor and the hospital. There are multiple impacts of the Staffing Shortage that kaiser Patients Experience and youre right, it is what make a Health Care Worker strike unique. Workers are striking on their own behalf but also because they care deeply about the mission of their employer, which is to provide quality, Safe Health Care for everyone. Jon Bloomberg Law estimate this kaiser strike will be the largest for the u. S. Health Care Industry by at least 20,000 workers and us as we have highlighted the other labor disruptions we have seen across the United States. What can you tell us about the length of time . We talk about the initial timeframe but in time when there are worries about the overall economy and disruptions to the workforces, what timeframe should we be thinking about longer term . Mary kay the workers serve the required 10 day notice for a three day unfair labor practice strike and that concludes tomorrow. Bargaining was going on yesterday during the first day of the strike. I think it has not happening today. We will see if tomorrow the employer returns to the table and is able to settle this dispute. If it is not just settle, the workers will vote again to authorize their Bargaining Committee to call additional strikes. Matt what are the workers actually asking for . Uaw wants at least 30 pay rise, defined pension benefits, definedbenefit pensions, i believe they are pushing for a four day work week. What about these Kaiser Permanente workers . Mary kay the inflation demand the wage demand was made early in bargaining and my recollection is that the initial demand was 7 annually for the four years of the contract but i think the Bargaining Committee is in discussion about that demand now. Jon you highlighted some of the stress workers have felt and request they have. How should those who are watching this as patients maybe have nonessential services and seeing these headlines, how should they navigate to all this . Mary kay the union has set up a phone center to help people navigate what we ask for is patient support for the workers demands because we want them to stand in solidarity with us to address the staffing crisis and make sure we are adequately staffed to provide the care we believe they deserve and they have been demanding. So, i think patience is the most important thing for kaiser members that are watching. To stay connected to the news about what workers are able to achieve. Matt thank you for joining us. Service employees International Union International President Mary Kay Henry talking to us about worker striking at Kaiser Permanente. How uaw strike is impacting Car Dealerships and what it does to car prices and car parts going forward. This is bloomberg. Jon this is bloomberg markets. Our stock of the hour. There been watching automakers. Bloomberg is committing delay of not striking workers to the tune of 760 thousand jobs as the uaw impact on cargo Car Dealerships is something we are also watching. Matt we are only seeing strikes at a handful of assembly plants. Youre starting to see knock on effects, especially at the parts factory strikes. It is become a problem for a lot of dealers across the country. I want to bring in george byers kauffman. You have gm stores, ford stores, stellantis dealerships. Were you looking at in terms of inventory, the parts issue because i have to assume this would delist make a lot of their money . George on the new vehicle front we got pretty decent supply of vehicles on the ground but over the next few weeks of the strike continues to play out, that will start to decrease because were not going to be able to replace certain types of vehicles. You mentioned the bronco, wranger involved in that plant. You cannot replace them. Your sales going to supper. Parkside is affecting us most. Emceeing a disruption in parts availability. We tried to get in front of that like many dealers have done. The competent parts you know you would need down the road repair customer vehicles, we have tried to buy as many as those in front of the strike as we could. Rig going to get caught we are going to get caught the one of vehicle something breaks is not a common repair, that is not going to be available. How are we going to react to that . What are we going to do . Source to another dealer . The dealer will want a higher price for it which means that a charge the higher price the customer. Trickle down effect. We are going to see we already seeing the disruption and it continued to get worse will continue to get worse. Matt wranger built in that same plant. Have you already seen situations where those buyers will say maybe i will look at any sign frontier or Toyota Tacoma instead because of the strike . George i started seeing that about even before the strike began. We saw sales start to decline a bit. What is going on with uaw strike everyone can look it up online, everyone knows what is going on. It is one of the top things that come up. Customer confidence was already starting to decline once they realized the strike was possible and now that is happening and is saying staying. You have an opportunity to buy a ford expedition, that is great, if i have it, but if something happens to it, are you able to repair it . Maybe i want to look at an audi q7. We are already seeing the effect and especially as our inventory starts to dwindle and we are Holding Strong on prices. It is going to get it has possibility to get really bad for the consumer. Jon last time we spoke, you highlighted the longerterm storyline for the traditional automakers in the United States and where they land through all of this, especially since we are also watching them navigate this shift to electric vehicles, but even there you talk about the confidence of consumers, if you are making vehicles at a price point that is difficult for people to lock in right now, that is already a business challenge the automakers are dealing with before this strike, what are things look like the next 34 years beyond navigating what is happening now . George you are going to see more change the next 35 years in the Auto Industry that i think youre seeing in the last 15. Alleging vehicles i think you start to see toyota going to start pushing hydrogen vehicle. This would be more options for people to pick and choose from. The traditional engine, go to three or four stores and i know what i want to come i think you see it change rapidly with the infant of these new technologies that are being pushed out to the public. You are going to see cars getting super for sophisticated. Matt in terms of the parts, were you seeing shortages . Are certain brands getting hit harder than others . George pretty much the same across the board with all three of the brands. I would say General Motors probably having the most strain. But all three seen disruption and shortages of parts. We also have a Large Service department. We do vehicles, service on trucks so is a lot of volume. Im feeling the effect within the other two. More than the other two. Jon you talk about your concerns over supply the longer it plays out. Is there anything anecdotally as he did terms of percentages like in an average cycle, what new inventory is coming to you and what the picture looks like the deeper we get into this . George the deeper we get into it is when it gets really bad because once what we are planning on or hoping vehicles that are already built, logistically we have had issues since covid, getting the vehicles from the plants to the dealership, their vehicles out there that are already built. My first hope we get those vehicles to our lot to cuba sustained for a while. Our lots to keep a sustained for a while. It was the inventory goes down, even with they called the strike and go back to work, it is not like you see cars again in two days. It is going to take months to build up the inventory to try to recover from having this time of no building the vehicles. Theyre not striking everything vehicle that every single vehicle but the ones that are effective it will take months to fully recover. Matt you have a unique position in terms of your view of the economy of central ohio. Your dealership chains one of the largest there and im guessing one of the oldest as well. You are interwoven with the columbus economy. How does it look when a lot of people are saying maybe we could see a soft landing . We have been previously forecasting a recession but it looks better than expected. What is it look like to you in central ohio . George columbus is just a great study. I say it all the time, the largest small safety on the planet. Degrees of separation is one. There is a lot of connections and people working together. The citi government proactive bringing in new businesses. We have the intel plant coming with tons of construction jobs individual jobs of the actual facility. Theres a lot of infrastructure going in. This is the of columbus putting their money where their mouth is and saying were going to continue to grow with it is a recession or not. It is an entrepreneurial town. Lots of people here, start ups, columbus is a great place to be. I am happy to be here. Jon got to love the great state of ohio. Matt eight president s more than any other state. Thank you for joining us. George byers kauffman there. Jon we are going to take a quick break but we come back weightloss drugs like ozempic hoping pharmacy sales like the likes of walmart, but it is starting to impact snacks sales and we will have more on that developing story. This is bloomberg. That first time you take a step back and see everything youve accomplished. I made that. With your very own online store. I sold that. And you can manage it all in one place. I built this. And it was easy with godaddy. I am doing this. With a partner that puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com sell jon this is bloomberg markets. Todays for what it is worth and our data point today is 300 which is the increase in u. S. Sales of ozempic or similar medicines between 2020 and 2022 according to industry research. What is fascinating is that is keeping parmacies at retailers like walmart busy but head of u. S. Walmart operations told bloomberg that weightloss drugs are starting to take a bite out of the retailers who do sales. Walmart is able to track customers who are buying food but also track whos buying these medicines so they are starting to see some signs of that which is a fascinating phenomenon. Matt the Data Collection is the coolest part of the story. Walmart has everything and people who go there tend to go there for all of those things. They can see who is getting these drugs and what is that person shopping cart look like preand post. After someone goes and pick up and is a big prescription ozempic prescription, they are buying fewer calories afterwards. We are also hearing a new study release that shows people using these drugs are experiencing gastrointestinal problems though i think we already knew that. I have asked the a number of people of ozempic and the ultimate is going to give you some stomach issues but if you deal with that, you will look better. The big worry is what happens ten years down the line . For the longterm Health Effects what looks to be a medical drug . Jon you have to navigate through that which we will continue to watch on that story and in the markets given those fast Interest Rate hikes we have seen, investors are adjusting all of that. We will continue to track the markets throughout the day. This is bloomberg. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Loving this pay bump in our allowance. Wonder where mom and dad got the extra money . Maybe they won the lottery . Maybe they inherited a fortune . Maybe buried treasure . Maybe it fell off a truck . Maybe they switched to Xfinity Mobile on the most reliable 5g network. 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