Higher. Up another 2 10 of 1 . It is this level that matters. Most of the summer, we have been bouncing off of that level, 470 has been really important. We are breaking through that. Lets talk about some single stocks. Heineken is fascinating. It has absorbed the input cost rises. It pushed them through the customers and the customers are pushing back. Particularly in vietnam. The markets are not convinced. Heineken gets marked down significantly. Adidas, down by 4 10 of 1 today. But a really big deal being done today with manchester united. They are trying to rehabilitate the brand. It is a huge deal being done with the premier league. It will be interesting what impact it has. It speaks to what is happening in premiership football right now. Adidas down by 4 10 of 1 . Lets bring you back with a bit of sports. Alix sports you play with your feet. All of the indices are up just a touch. J j is the biggest lag or on the dow lagger on the dow. There are cases that j j will have to deal with. Watch that as it weighs on the dow. This is my way to talk about the boj. If you have the boj exiting or expanding, tamping down the yield rise that we have seen. You could see the echoed in other asset classes. The dollar, up by 6 10 of 1 . It begs the question, are we really going to see the unwind money come out of the assets and back into japan. Are we really going to get there is the question for those assets. Guy absolutely. What happens next, in terms of the inflation will be key in all of this. Today, you get data out of the euro zone. They crossover. The question we are asking is are we going to see a gentle growing apart, can we price in a soft landing . We have leveled off and plateaued a bit. What happens next is critical. How is the market thinking about what it needs to price next . I think we are at a point of real difficulty for markets. And it is august, we are going into august. There is that issue as well. The market is increasingly believing that we can deliver this soft landing. The question is is it priced . Alix also, can we paint that broad stroke through all different regions . Is the u. K. , europe and the u. S. The same . Is a soft landing a based case . Is that question different for all those regions . The u. K. Is having some issues. Idiosyncratic, particularly for comes to brexit. Is a soft landing a base the base case . Particularly when it comes to europe. Christine, what do you think . Base case, soft landing . Christine lets break this down into two parts. Its not the base case when it comes to soft landing. But people are skewing more toward the possibility that we will see that. Let my argument is one about a hard landing . That seems to not be part of the discussions. I argue that it has to be. As you point out, the uris u. S. Is not europe, is not the u. K. The situation in europe and the u. K. Is very problematic. Inflation levels are well above the bank of england and ecb targets. Even if the fed is starting to be more data dependent, i dont know the bank of england or ecb can afford to do that. Guy i hear what you are saying but look at growth. Eddie, look at growth out of u. K. German growth is a little weaker. Nevertheless, Growth Continues to hold up. Eddie i will take the complete opposite position. I think the market is pricing a hard landing. We are still seeing recession odds from economists at somewhere about 60 for the u. S. Even more so in the u. K. And europe. We are still seeing the yield curve. We are still seeing stock markets going up. We are not pricing to exuberance , given the Inflation Numbers that we have had. At the same time, i think the market is underpricing. I think the markets should be pricing a soft landing. I think the more data that we get and we hear from the consumer and we see inflation coming down at the same time as growth holds up. I think, yes, we are headed for a late cycle rate distribution. Where rates start coming down. But, not because the fed and other Central Banks are being forced into cutting rates, because they can. They see inflation coming down and they are able to. Alix guy, this wraps around what we were talking about with what happens with earnings. At least in europe, you havent seen the big hit on the equities, if they wind up missing, which means that maybe, to some extent, eddie is right. That hard landing has been priced. So, if we dont get that, is there more upside then then verses in the u. S. . Than verses in the u. S. . Guy yes. I think you are europe started in a lower spot so it is easier to get over the bar. But i think about this issue. We are potentially in a higher nominal growth world but we will have a higher inflation rate within that. I dont know whether that is going to, from a market point of view, be a soft landing. What is a soft landing, christine . Maybe we should start there. Is a soft landing that we dont get down to 2 inflation, we learn to live with 3 and bond yields stay elevated but growth remains elevated . Is that what stocks are pricing . Kristine i think that is essentially right. The definition of a soft landing is as you described. Higher inflation for longer but growth that does not skip to the point that it is a recession. I think we are, again, my argument that a hard landing still has to be very much part of the calculation for investors. Guy but it is getting later and later. Kristine it is getting later but that does not mean we can discount it at this point. Guy distribution of outcomes. Where is the soft landing coming to the center of the and we are pushing out the recession, becoming a greater tell risk . Kristine the situation we are in at the moment, which is benign growth and still high inflation, but may be manageable , could easily turn into a hard landing situation if policymakers get complacent and think ok, growth is holding up really well. The consumer is still robust, lets keep delivering these rate hikes. That is what could create a hard landing situation. The impact of higher rates on Consumer Sentiment alone could be quite devastating, especially if they have to do it quickly. Alix this is where i feel like the a cyclical versus cyclical conversation comes into play much more in europe. If a cyclical inflammation is coming down, that can come up again. The cyclical inflation has not budged. What do you think . Eddie there are some factors here. The energy shot that is bringing inflation down fast in the u. K. , it has been Something Like 3 inflation at the end of the air because of those things. There is a lot of overproduction in things like or planned overproduction in things like chip stocks and stock building in industries where people struggled to get hold of supplies. I think that is the next wave of the disinflationary wave that we get here. I think all of those things allow the central bankers to take their foot off the brakes a little bit. At the same time, you are probably going to see china aggressively stimulate at some point. If you get those two things happening together, that is positive for europe in particular. Guy the question is is if the base case for markets . Is it the base case for markets . You are on a twoweek holiday and you come back, the stoxx 600 is breaking out to the upside. The nasdaq continues to be on a tear. Equity markets continue to push higher. I find it hard to believe that equity markets, given the performance we have seen in the first half of the year, are signaling anything disastrous ahead. They are meant to be a discounting mechanism. Alix the only time we got that selloff on the s p was on the boj on thursday. That brings up a good point about what the catalyst is. If you have already priced in slowing inflation, that is to the upside, right . What is going to move the needle . Does it have to be an acceleration of inflation or a big growth scare . Or are we looking at these two extreme binary circumstances . Kristine i think it will come from the idea of a growth scare. The trajectory of inflation has been a relief to investors. It is higher in the u. K. And europe in terms of nominal rates it is headed in the right direction. It will come down to that sudden, unexpected crumbling of, thus far, a resilient economy that we have seen. If there is anything that derails that i. E. , surprise rate hikes guy or Student Loans, there are other things coming into the economy that could hit the consumer. The consumer has held up. Kristine that has been what has precipitated this soft landing idea. Consumers can turn very easily on a dime as well. We have seen Consumer Sentiment suddenly deteriorate very quickly, once you get several series of bad news. That could come from anywhere. It could be china. It could be the bank of england. Suddenly a lot more hawkish than any of us expected. It could be that wall of mortgages that u. K. Homeowners have to refinance. That is still to come. We have not seen that. That will start in september. Alixs credit card bills. Guy two weeks in france spending money. Alix that will down my Consumer Confidence read for august. Thanks a lot. We super appreciate it. Coming up, more on the question of the day. Is a soft landing the base case . We will break it down with she seema shah. This is bloomberg. Theres different pockets of europe that are not necessarily moving in sync. I think you can make a similar argument that european stocks have discounted a lot of bad news. I think there was a lot of draconian scenarios that were priced in, especially coming out of last year that have not materialized. It makes sense there would be opportunities. Guy talking with joe gilbert, speaking to alix steel in the last hour. Lets take you to our question of the day. Is a soft landing the base case . Joining us now, what do you think . Which market are you talking about . The base case has to be a soft landing. That was a good slip. I think that is the base case. I think a lot of it depends on how do you define a soft landing, as well. If you are thinking about the u. S. For the time being, for our forecast, we are expecting two quarters of collective growth. But if you are looking at the peak to drop, it is a 1. 5 drop in annualized growth. That is as close to stagnation as you can get. In terms of the market, it is similar. You cant really see a sharp correction when you have such a small drop and you are only expecting the Unemployment Rate to rise. I think soft landing i dont think soft landing is the base case. Alix what is the base case . Seema if you look at the last couple of months and you look at the Economic Forecast for the market, i didnt see almost anyone forecasting a recession for europe. Which to me is a concerning sign. At any point of any year, there will always be someone forecasting a recession for europe. I thought there was vulnerability with the forecast. Now, you are starting to see this weakness. Whether it is a recession or hard landing, i dont think i would go as far as that. But i think there are negative surprises to come, which could be very disruptive for the market outlook. Guy i hear all of that and yet i see stocks going higher. Stoxx 600, breaking through 470. Nasdaq and the s p continuing to rise. Why am i selling stocks at this point . Seema you shouldnt be. Even if you expect equities to fall a bit, because we are not anticipating anything like the gse, where you have if there is a downturn, it is a quick recovery. You should be taking a 612 month outlook and say where do you think equities will go over that time period. It should be higher. Position under the surface wisely. I think it is difficult. Even if you think there could be a bit of a pullback. Alix it is a rally everyone loves to hate. Im wondering, can you break that down from a cyclical perspective too . Our cyclicals in a soft landing . How do you manage that exposure . Seema realistically, from an economic perspective, you should be exposing yourself to defensives. The way the market has moved suggests there are more opportunities within the defensives market because cyclicals have done ok. You almost have to be looking under the surface, which of the companies will have Pricing Power as inflation comes down will be an important decision to make. Which of the companies can continue to pass through these price increases . It almost becomes a quality of Pricing Power discussion. Guy Student Loans are about to kick in. The rate hikes have not fully been felt by the economy, yet. The list goes on and on in terms of why the big support for the economy may start to crumble. The consumers right at the center of that. Is the consumer going to be able to do what the consumer is doing now, going on nice holidays, buying houses the way they are at the moment . What could change that narrative . What undermines this economy, the u. S. Economy and the european economy . Seema its a similar thing to what you are saying. You mentioned the Student Loans. There is a discussion on when that starts to be exhausted. The postcovid fiscal support from the government is slowly starting to come to an end. Expect the consumer to be facing those factors as we get toward the end of the year. I think that is a slight there is a slight mindset shift what people would prioritize today is different from what they would prioritize before covid. I think travel will be a strong part of the economy. Maybe you pullback on a few other things. The eating out, the part that we missed out on in the last two years will probably be a fairly strong part of the economy. Alix some vacations and buying but maybe we wont pay for heineken at home. Im making a joke but in all seriousness, then you would be discerning and it is not a jump all in. Guy does this mean Service Inflation remains tight and sticky . How does the fed deal with that . If this isnt goods inflation and it is Service Inflation, that is more sticky and more problematic. Alix 100 . Our the u. S. And europe going to move in tandem with that or will it be one set of scenarios for the u. S. Versus europe and we have not distinct that yet in the market . Seema ultimately, maybe they move at different paces. But you are essentially looking at a similar story for both. I think Core Services continues to be an issue, particularly for the u. S. , more so than for europe, simply because labor market strength is so overwhelming in the u. S. I dont think you are going to see a return to inflation of 2 . You will, eventually. But it will take a deeper downturn to get you there. It will be a little more painful. I still subscribe to that. Guy good to see you as ever. Our chief strategist in principle asset management. Coming up, as we see price rises being pushed back, it is interesting. It is happening in vietnam. Key markets for heineken. We will talk about it next. This is bloomberg. Before theyre on medicare. Come on in. Youre turning 65 soon . Yep. And youre retiring at 67 . Thats the plan well, youve come to the right place. Nows the time to plan ahead. Learn about an aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan from unitedhealthcare. 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Thumbs up to that remember, the time to prepare is before you go on medicare dont wait. Get started today. Take charge of your health care. Call unitedhealthcare for your free decision guide and learn more about lowering your outofpocket medicare costs and seeing any doctor who accepts medicare patients. Oh, and happy birthday. Or retirement. In advance. People may be drinking less but they are drinking better. We see our Premium Brands across the board, not only heineken, but desperado, we are seeing more on our Premium Brands. That is really important because it is our number one strategic priority. Guy the heineken ceo speaking earlier to bloomberg television. This is where it gets interesting. They spent the first half of the year absorbing the price increases on the input side. They pushed those out in terms of price rises to the consumer. In places like vietnam, they have had a strong push back, which they are now having to take on board and adjust their outlooks. It is interesting to hear him talk about the idea of the Premium Brands. People are still paying up for holidays and things like that. And they are willing to pay for premium beers. This is the bit that i find really tricky. At some point, does that crack or is this the new norm . Alix 100 . He pointed out u. S. Demand for slowing a bit too. Are we seeing a rollover, are you buying other stuff rather than them . Analysts are skeptical of heineken, specifically their target. They have to deliver a lot in the back have to meet there even reduced guidance. There is a lot of questions on if they can actually do that. Guy i dont know. We keep waiting for the earnings season when the problems start showing up and then the market reacted. Aib, up 18. 2 . Up by 2. 2 . Star lantus, up by. 5 . Centrica is up. Leonardo is up. A big day for a big day for bank of america. We will talk about this in more next. The closes coming up this is bloomberg. Close is coming up. This is bloomberg. Sleepovers just arent what they used to be. A house full of screens . Basically no hiccups . You guys have no idea how good youve got it. How old are you . Like, 80 . Back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. We dont get scared. Oh, really . Mom can see your search history. Thats what i thought. Introducing the next generation 10g network. Only from xfinity. Guy this does not look that impressive. But in reality, european stocks are pushing through at really key levels. Markets reasonably cautious today. Equity markets, to be more specific. You have the lecture he sector having a relatively good day. Energy is having a good day. The u. K. , particularly some of the smaller companies, the government announcing that it will deliver fresh licenses for the north sea. Those kinds of companies having a really good day. We will get bp tomorrow. This is the intraday story, a gradual climb throughout the day. 470, weve been bumping our heads against that for a while now. We are only up by 0. 2 . These little gains are getting the job done. Were also going through to the end of july, it could be a quiet august, but we will wait and see. These are just incremental gains pushing higher. It has done two point 25 . The taxes up there has been some turbulence around the luxury sector. These are decent gains, 2 . They are not nasdaq gains, but they are ok gains. This is the story during the month of july. Lets talk about some of the names we are watching today. Heineken getting dinged up pretty badly. Heineken down by 7. 5 . Adidas down by 0. 6 after signing a huge deal today. That evolution, that revolution revolution is probably the wrong word. That shift in the brand they are trying to get, big banks up with serious money. We are down by 0. 6 . Lloyds bank is down by 0. 2 . British government and regulators are really putting pressure on these banks in the u. K. To push through some of the Interest Rate hikes to save us. That affects the deposit, which is interesting in terms of whats going to happen around all of this. Are we going to continue to see these banks being reticent as regulators are putting pressure . Not big reaction in terms of stock. I want to talk about the day ahead, because today is relatively quiet. Tomorrow, manufacturing pmis out of europe. Watch out for those. What will they tell us about where we are . It will be fascinating to see how that gels with the story on the isms, which we will get later in the week out of the united states. Reserve bank of australia, we will let them be on the european wall. Hbc is out with numbers, dhl, diageo. I think this we could be more important, in terms of the earnings story out of europe. I want to come back to the earnings story. Bp out with numbers tomorrow. What are they going to tell us about returning money to shareholders . What does cash flow look like . How dinged up will it be this time around you . Theres lots of questions that i think need to be answered by bp. How many we are going to get, lets wait and see. Alix and closing the gap with the likes of chevron. More on this. Paul, lead analyst, joins us now. Thank you so much for joining us. Always a pleasure to talk to you. I missed oil earnings on my vacation paired what will i learn tomorrow from bp that i did not learn by reading up on analyst notes . Paul oil was 75 per barrel in q2. That was a respectable price, but certainly yearoveryear down a lot. It is still a decent price. I think the big thing for bp was the u. S. Natural gas price, which came in closer to two dollars btu and is not showing much increase from that level as we go into q3. As you know, there has been a huge run in oil and significant moves in the dollar. I dont know how long your vacation was, frankly, but the key thing here is the saudis have cut considerable quantities of oil. Russia has cut back. That has been combined with the dollar, bullish for the past two or three weeks. Guy why is that good for bp, and is it good for bp and better for everybody else . The big question around bps return of money to shareholders. They have a whole bunch of other issues they need to factor in. When are we going to see bp shareholders being rewarded with money coming back in significant quantities . Paul it wont be this quarter. I think they have to take a step back in the buyback. Having said that, there buyback target is off 67. It is the natural gas price and significant capital movements as prices come down. Youve seen a negative effect, for example, at exxon. A significant, multibilliondollar effect. I think it will be a somewhat weak order with a lot of attention, as you rightly say, on the buyback outlook for bp, especially now that oil is back up to 85. What we saw was chevron and exxon is that despite them being kind of breakeven, they did maintain very aggressive, already with decent dividends that did not get cut during covid. Both of them actually cannot buyback for various reasons, related to at the moment. There is an opportunity here if the big guys can step up and narrow that valuation gap. Alix is that all it is going to take . Is there anything else bp can deliver tomorrow that can help close that valuation gap, or will it be there until payouts . Paul obviously, we have seen is a significant uturn turn, essentially backing off the whole renewables. We have done a great job in oil and gas, we can do a great job in renewables. Bp has done a horrible job in gas over the past 20 years. The idea that they could now become a huge Renewables Company was rightly very highly questioned by the market. What we are looking for strategically is perhaps from the ceo of more of a back of a of more of a backing off. Guy its interesting. The u. K. Government backing off, announcing new licenses in the north sea, talking about the fact that it wants to squeeze out every last drop of oil and gas from the north sea. Do you think this is going to be a trend that gets repeated elsewhere . Do you think there is going to be pushed back . If we are going to see a more open operating environment, may be taking their foot off the brake a little bit, wheres the sweet spot . Who is going to benefit the most, potentially, from that . Paul if the north sea opens up again, that will benefit bp and others. I think the irony is the Just Stop Oil movement has done wonders for the pronorth sea movement in the u. K. They have been a disaster in public support and that has led to backlash. Theyre also reviewing some of the traffic limitations in london that are steeply unpopular, with the cost of driving. Its interesting that the conservative government is seemingly backing off. It all obviously relates to the ukraine situation and energy security. And the realization that you dont want to get rid of all of your thomistic oil and gas for the benefit of mormon nefarious powers. Alix some people are saying it is not or, it is and. I wonder if you think the u. S. Is going to go the same way. It is not the case. Federal lands and leases are still under difficulty if you want to get them. It is much more of an work or. Paul policy is driven by the gasoline price at the pump. That will go higher. If you look at the wholesale gasoline, the price of crude, we are lagging quite badly at the pump. You can see them up another 20 , at least, for gasoline. At that point, the u. S. Administration starts to get very worried as we get within the year of an election. I think one of the responses will be to turn a blind eye to smuggling, for example, from russia, now that we are over the price cap of 60. I think democrats are extremely committed to the ira. That will be the defining Energy Legislation over the next 10 years, without question. They got their environmental friendly policy in place. They have blown out the spr. Theres not much they can do with the gasoline price, other than try to sell it, which is what Jake Sullivan tried to do. Guy go back to where we started, which is bp. If you were an investor looking at what the next few years brings, where is going to be the most rewarding place to park your money within the space . It will will it beat the united states, with the majors, downstream . I am curious as you see the landscape evolving in front of you, where the biggest rate of return is going to be generated. Paul the most important thing on the oil side is inventory. You see these high Inventory Companies where people are questioning this as a major issue. We will have producers, such as pioneer, reporting this week. We have special dividends as a result of low prices. Inventory in oil, i inc. The biggest thing investors wanted, and with the ukraine situation, is natural gas in the u. S. It is actually driven by ngls. That is enormous for the u. S. , and a huge benefit. We like this theme a lot. We are somewhat worried about refining here because we are in such a good environment. Alix has said she will not be taking planes anymore for a while. I think we need to slow down air travel to combine with week, distillate demand in the u. S. , and the fading gasoline demand even in midsummer. Its a bit more tougher us at this point, with the saudis screen using the saudis squeezing the crude market. I think everyone rightly loves u. S. Natural gas. Alix its true. Guy we are going to leave it there. I cannot believe that alex will never in reality get on a plane. She says that, but she also said she would not spend money in europe, but that did not turn out to be true either. Paul, lovely to see you. Thank you very much indeed. Reporter paul sankey, lead analyst, thank you very much. Energy has had a relatively good day today. Paul mentioned the harvard story. The ftse finishing a little flat, the dax down, the cac up a little. The story on semiconductors, reporting positive results earlier today. This is a Company Highly exposed to the auto industry, which is still suffering from shortages. We will talk about that next. This is bloomberg. upbeat music woah. Constant Contact delivers the Marketing Tools your Small Business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. Constant contact. Helping the small stand tall. 76 of 23andme Health Customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. Constant contact. Because they know health isnt just a future state. Health happens now. Start your dnapowered Health Journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. He snores like an angry rhino. Youve never heard an angry rhino. Baby i hear one every night. Every night. Okay. Ill work on that. Save up to 500 on the new sleep number® smart bed. Plus, 60 month financing on most smart beds. Shop now only at sleep number®. Was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com guy this is bloomberg markets. You are looking at the capital room. Sarah couldnt joining us at 2 p. M. New york time. This is bloomberg. Alix one stock we are watching today is set. Sammy whether you are looking at gross margins, margins, we have the details. What was your initial take care . Mandeep that sandy that semiconductor clearly looks pretty strong. You can extrapolate what the participant exposure is, in terms of the autos or data center signs. Those are the two pockets of demand. They continue to be insatiable. There is content growth and pricing growth. I think what we have found this earnings season is the supply constraints, especially on the fab side, those have dissipated. Thats where all of the Fabulous Companies are benefiting from having easier supply, and they are able to fulfill a lot of demand pushed out before. Guy it is guy. In the auto space, what is the problem . Is there still a shortage of chips that the autos need . Have we never really caught up or is it that the pricing is so strong that the autos dont want pay . Im curious about whats happening. Mandeep for a while, we were in a situation where the trailing capacity was lagging, in terms of fulfilling auto demand. We know what happened during the pandemic. These companies all pulled back their orders. Once we came out of the pandemic, we never really had enough capacity for the autos. Right now, we are coming to a point where the demand continues to be strong, but at least the supply has caught up. That is where he will probably see the growth may not be as strong going forward, but in terms of semiconductor content increases, you can see that on the auto side. You just did not have as much content as before. With dvds and autonomous driving, that is a secular driver that is going to stay in this market for the foreseeable future. Alix what is the qualcomm for thursday . Mandeep expectations are low. We have not seen the bump we saw with nvidia or the companies exposed to data centers. With qualcomm, smartphones continue to be weak. We saw that through tmc earnings. Smartphone demand is weak. Apple will probably print an inline quarter. Qualcomm has additional exposure to china, where everyone was opening was hoping the reopening would help the cycle, which has not been the case. But the companies always react to the upside coming forward. That is where you can probably see a refresh driving the pace of quarter divisions. Guy its amazing to see whats happening. Thank you very much. Coming up, we are going to get clues from sloughs. Investors will be watching the latest Senior Loan Officers opinion. We had a little heads up from powell. We will get you a preview next. This is bloomberg. St gave up. With miracle ear its all about service. Theyre personable. Theyre friendly. Im very happy with them. We provide you with a free lifetime of aftercare. Meaning free checkups, cleanings, and adjustments. I see someone new. Someone happy. Its really made a difference. Call miracle ear at 1800miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. Advancing flight for future generations. Welcome to a new era of flight. Alix stocks on the headline level are really struggling to find any direction here. We are solidly nowhere. Abigail is tracking the moves. Abigail very small moves, indeed. Not even up 0. 1 for the s p 500. Ever so fractionally for the nasdaq 100, earlier fluctuating slightly. You can see the two year yield, not a whole lot of movement there. The vix, earlier, even now, it had been higher, suggesting that perhaps some volatility could be ahead for stocks. As for the month of july, clear, blue skies, whatever you want to call it. Big, big gains. Here are two of the best sectors for the s p 500. Energy and Communication Services both up about 7 , showing that the breadth of this years rally started to wide now. As for movers on the month, meta is one of the top performers on that blowout quarter. Outlook, up 29 . The best month going back to 2022. I think this probably has to do with the stimulus from chinese government, or at least the expectation of that. It is interesting to note that on the month of july, this big up month, we have microsoft lower, down 1. 9 . Not a huge decline, but on that disappointing quarter, and phase energy down a bit. It really stands out in a sea of green for other tech movers. Guy quite a run there. Abigail, thank you very much. What do we need to continue to keep our eye on you . Lets talk about the earnings beginning after the bell. We have aris to networks. The fed is releasing its latest Senior Loan Officers opinion survey, or as we like to call it, the sloos. It sounds unpleasant, if u. S. Me. Im sure eiko mckee will be working his way through it a little later on. Are there going to be surprises here . I thought we got a pretty good heads up on what we will get in this michael he certainly suggested it will not be a surprise. That big thing about this is that it measures bank Lending Conditions, whether they have gotten tighter or looser, and loan demand. We saw in the april release, which was right after the kerfuffle with the Banking System in march, yes, 42 had raised their lending standards somewhat. But at the same time, the fed has been tightening monetary policy. So, you would expect lending standards to get worse. What we did not see is a big change and those who have tightened considerably. Jay powell said last week, he basically said we saw because they have the data already what you would expect to see. That is kind of a hint that the situation has not gotten any worse and we are not seeing a real tightening of financial conditions or Lending Conditions that will cause problems for the economy. Alix do we want to see a move lower in actual demand or supply . What is the best scenario with that . Michael you want a little bit of balance. We would expect banks to tighten somewhat. The question is, how many tightened considerably to the point where theyre cutting off lending . At the same time, he balance that out with what Lending Demand is. That has fallen. The commercial and industrial loans business lending has dropped off quite a bit, as companies decide that the economy is slowing enough that they dont need to borrow more to invest. But remember, a lot of them also getting some incentive from the chips act and the inflation reduction act. I couldnt even are member the name of it. Thats to build. So, they may not need to borrow as much under the same conditions. Guy mike, i remember when there was a time that the jolts was the onboard piece of data. It seems to have faded a little bit. Were you looking for tomorrow and where does the surprise come from . Michael we are looking for a decreased peer we are looking around 9 million open jobs. But do we see that continue to fall . The fed steak a lot on the idea that the number of jobs open is a representation of how tight the labor market is and there arent people to fulfill it. The biggest category where there havent been enough people to take the jobs is leisure and hospitality. As that has change, we will watch that. But given what is happening in housing, we will look at construction jobs and see whats going on there. We will look at manufacturing to see if they are releasing people at the same time we have seen the ism number, which we also get to number, we have seen that weekend the manufacturing numbers. Are they letting people go in the same time . Alix we will have analysis for you with the ism. Tune in for that. Michael i set you up for that. Alix we appreciate that very much. Bloombergs michael mckee. Guy, i feel like today is a placeholder. We are both back and thats great. But it is the ism im interested in. Today is good, a soft landing. There is a lot. Is it going to be enough to move the needle to rough in this soft landing scenario weve been talking about over the last couple of hours . Guy you have so much labor market data, i think it will be fascinating to see. Thats the one area holding up the consumer, it seems, at the moment. Plenty more great coverage coming up. Anthony noto joining ed and caroline next. This is bloomberg. 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