On the difference between 12 miles of fisheries and 200 miles of fisheries, and i can understand the delicacies. I believe as the Prime Minister tries to help mr. Mccraw by phasing in those fishing rights. We will be speaking with our fisheries expert, therese raphael. And the underlying question, how many can fish at any time, we will see if they want to sign something or whether they want to postpone it. Thats get to first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika the Justice Department is in talks about resulting charges against the ceo of huawei technologies. It is a longrunning dispute that fueled a clash between the u. S. And china. Canada arrested mag ones out two years ago, confined to the city of vancouver ever since. There are talks of a third prosecution agreement on violating sanctions against iran. That would allow him to return to china. Call for says he will americans to wear masks for the first 100 days of his administration. He will issue a Standing Order biden sayses he things all that will lead to a significant drop in coronavirus cases. The chances are higher for a deal on a stimulus package by the end of the year. A bipartisan plan endorsed by Democratic Leaders is now getting more interest from republicans. Billion, less8 than what democrats are calling for, but they say it is a starting point. Opec and its allies are finding a compromise on apple cuts after five days of difficult talks. Numbers agreed to gently ease into reducing production next year. Theenergy minister called process tiring and excruciating. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom . Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Really interesting market. There is all the news, but the markets scream higher. Futures up 10, dow futures up 1. 22. Nasdaq 100 to me is the big story, 12,500 now. Nasdaq futures, the vix really does not move in like you would expect. 21. 06. Dare i say a 19 handle on the vix . Higherd space, yields correlated out nicely with the equity move. Dollar weaker, renminbi out to new strength as well. Oil, i am on the 50 a barrel watch. Francine i am on the 50 a barrel watch, too. We are expecting to show that u. S. Employment gains probably slowed only modestly in november despite a record surgeon virus cases. Watch out if there is a surprise, but overall european stocks, u. S. Futures are edging higher. I would not write home about it, but they are gaining some 0. 3 , following recent strength in Global Equities while awaiting data. At pound. It is always good to look at pound because we are trying to understand this political posturing. Do we have a deal, do we not have a deal . Will we get it this weekend . The milliondollar question. British officials blamed the European Union for turning up with a new set of demands. Negotiations descending into disagreement over a french negotiationsour descending into disagreement over a french concern. And if there is a deal, which is not a good deal, then we would oppose it. We always said so. We have had headlights in the last 10 minute or so from reuters saying that we could see that a deal is still on the cards as soon as this we can. For more on all of this, lets bring in therese raphael. I have to say, when you look at the posturing, we say Michel Barnier on the euro star, where are we . Will we just find out once we get a deal, if we get it this weekend, or can we really look blowbyblow to understand whats going on . Therese i do think this weekend, if it is not a hard deadline, it is pretty close to it, and there are two reasons for that. Of sortust on the issue of bandwidth from the e. U. , they have their big summit at the end of next week, time is running out, the deal, if it is done, it needs to be legally scrubbed, it needs translated into e. U. Members languages, it needs to be voted on by parliament. We keep saying this, but it is truly running out. But on monday we have got the house of commons is due to vote is a streaming it is a new stream the controversial piece of legislation because it contains causes that would reach a withdrawal agreement, the deal that Boris Johnson reached with the e. U. Last year, and the e. U. Has been clear that if that passes and is implemented, that there would be no deal. There are conflicts on both sides. Whether they want to get a deal done, i think it is pretty clear that both sides do, but from macron and Boris Johnson, this tiny part of the economy, fish, has become this incredibly symbolic issue for both. So they need to each be able to ensure that they could sell whatever they whatever they do agree to the public, and for posterity, not being considered to have caved in on this totemic issue. Francine do you think we will get a deal . People are trying to figure out whether it is a sign of brinkmanship. Therese i think my guess is probably as good as yours, francine. I know think some how they will leak something out, they will eek something out. In a way, it would be no deal if the size, because so many issues with business would have to be sorted out following the deal in the new year. Everything from really the nittygritty of rules of origin to standards and certifications. I think there is so much still to be worked out. So whether they actually sign some that matters for the tone of the relationship going forward, i think the level of detail that the two sides are going to negotiate is going to carry on way beyond this year, way into next year. And even beyond that. So maybe the question of deal or no deal is not even an important one as we think it is. Tom i want to get down to the nittygritty, and this is rules restaurant in london, where, francine, you and i will sit at the james bond table in the back and we will have fish pie. Therese fish pie . Tom fish pie. Therese it is a game restaurant. Tom fish pie. Thats what this is about, fishing. Mr. Macron wants to protect the people of france. Does the United Kingdom Prime Minister need to protect the fishing people of britain . Therese it is more complicated in britain because what britain fishes it doesnt consume itself, it cells into other markets, particularly the e. U. Market. What it consumes itself, doesnt fish. The two sides are very interdependent. Doesnt help either the u. K. Or france to have no deal here. Both sides sides know it. But getting a deal on fish that is not considered a sellout is important to Boris Johnsons support teen regulars between ers. It or finding the right level of quota has been hugely difficult, and the e. U. Demands have been rejected by the u. K. , and it looks like they will try to budget with phasing in a repatriation of quotas, and it is just it is not clear what level they will reach. Tom we are reintroducing our charts here off the bloomberg terminal, and this is the brexit chart, real simple, back to a time of over 1. 40 as well. Does sterling matter to the government calculation, or are they exhorting the markets and the recent sterling strength . Think it is not unimportant, but if you list all the concerns the government has, it is probably it is understood that if there is no deal at all, sterling is going to take a hit, that is going to be bad for the u. K. Economy, so it is a barometer of that and i think the government is probably has probably got an eye on that. If it can get a deal and these elements fall into place, then i the forex markets will take care of that. You so much,nk therese raphael, on brexit. Tom, we dont have game, we dont have fish. Very festive. That is something that cannot be touched in the u. K. Lacqua just the rules, champagne and guinness together, just a remarkable sight to behold. Tom, whatever you are having. Especially in 2020. Coming up, we will talk markets. Ith Nouriel Roubini that is at 5 30 a. M. In new york, 10 30 a. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. About brexitalking with therese raphael, with a side of restaurant reviews from london. , fromget to simon french panmure gordon. It is very volatile and it changes hourly, but even if we get a brexit deal, what kind of a deal is it . Is it enough to give something substantial to the u. K. . i think talking about it, that is spot on. The difference between the deal at this stage and no deal is relatively limited, maybe 1 , 1. 5 , 2 of gdp. What is crucial will be the rules of engagement regarding Getting Services frictions to be years,ized in the coming 2021, 2022. And the trust that will be broken down as a result of no deal, given the impact it will have on the irish economy, the french economy, the dutch, the belgian economy, means that there is a much bigger accreted problem in terms of corporation of cooperation on no deal compared to francine what happens to u. K. Assets if we dont get a deal . Simon there is a very clear and persistent 20 to 25 discount if yousets benchmark u. K. Components on the stoxx 600 come you can see it emerge in 2016. If we dont get a deal, i think that will discount things further. Probably on the order of maybe 5 or 10 . But it would have to be said that considerable frictions are already in the price. And there is perhaps the upside potential that is more focused and youre just starting to see the domestic u. K. Stocks catching a nervous bid, but clearly that makes them vulnerable. Tom simon, very quickly, there has to be giveandtake. Do you just assume that these political issues will be extended out one year, fiveyear, 10 year phasing . Simon that is spot on. What both sides will agree not to call in the coming furious is the transition, a difficult world per to a difficult word , particularly for the u. K. Government. Thethey go with the view to swisse. U. Relationship, where there is a dynamic dialogue. Is it actually the relationship the u. K. Will have to have with the European Union . They are too interrelated. You are absolutely right, it will move into the future. What you are looking at as an investor is to it avoid a hard that means that what the u. K. Wants to do is largely to achieve similar sorts of things on climate change, industrial policy, the European Union. From where you sit, can mr. Macron tell finland what to do . Certainly macron can what we have seen with mr. Theon is he likes invoking whether he will follow through, however, and derail the e. U. Budget process or the brexit, given the pain that that would reverse engineering to the french economy, i think it is more bluster than a statement of intent. Francine going back to the deal that we could or could not see over the weekend, when the french this week said they could veto if it was not the right deal, was that to increase pressure . I dont think it has changed much from what they had said in the past. How significant is it to bring it up this week . Think if you see bilateral discussions, or in this case, multilateral discussions, what tends to happen is that when you focus down on getting close to the deadline, issues that have been thought have been put to bed are raised, and youre right, this is not but also there is a rolling the pitch, you are preparing your domestic audience for what is to come. To be seen to negotiate it hard is an important metric because most of the electorate doesnt actually scrutinize the underlying detail. Francine tom loves the sports analogy. He is googling cricket as we speak, simon. What about the u. K. Side. We saw the tories voting against the Prime Minister, nothing to do with brexit because it was under lockdown, but if he comes back with the deal that is not seen as favorable between factions of the conservatives or more to the right, will they be vetoing it down . Then they might do, but most important political statement in the last 24 hours is the opposition, saying that he is inclined to instruct his party to vote for a deal. Now, clearly that would mean that Boris Johnson feels he can make more concessions because he would not need all the votes in order to part the deal. Be some statements may consistent, but there is a bit more room for Boris Johnson to be prepared to say i will vote down a deal because then he would be vetoing his own party. Tom we greatly appreciate it this morning, on a moving story into this weekend. He will continue with us later today. Coming up, after the jobs report, Jonathan Ferro in a conversation with mr. Kudlow of the white house. Liftis bloomberg futures, up 11. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. It turns out pfizer scaledback targets earlier this year. Problemsaker ran into getting all the materials it needed to produce the vaccine on a largescale. Now it estimates it will make half the amount. It is a dramatic change that shows how much the coronavirus is streaming, disrupting hollywood. Warner bros. Plans to release all of its theaters all of his movies next year in theaters and on hbo max at the same time. Mc plunged 16 . Wall street is on the verge of a relaxing antimoney laundering requirements. Congress has tucked the measures away in the upcoming defense spending bill. It could ease banks from compliance burdens. Legislation would bar Anonymous Shell Companies to launder money. That is the latest in bird business flash. Francine . Francine thank you so much. This is what the markets are doing. A lot of the focus will be on u. S. Jobs data. I am looking forward to seeing what happens on the markets to the markets on the back of it. The other story is oil, tom and i watching for american oil. Wti come you can see 46. 09. The first story is what is going on with brexit. We have a deal, do we not have a deal . What we have now is a lot of confusion talk, and you can see the sterling, 1. 3437 tom also the dollar weaker again today. Renminbi has been really quite something. 6. 531 per dollar. Not enough has been said about that. Maybe i will do a chart on that later here. Upures up 10, dell futures 1. 16. The vix does not really move much in early american trade. I do want to point out the continued lift in oil, and we are on a watch for global oil at 50 a barrel, which is a long way from the negative pricing of that crisis. I believe that was in march. Maybe that was in april as well. It is jobs day in america. We will have important conversation. Lawrence kudlow will join us from the white house after the jobs report. Before the report, Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley will join us. , not so recalibration much on the november report today, but will will the december report look like in 2021 . This is bloomberg. Good morning. Tom bloomberg surveillance, tom keene in new york, Francine Lacqua in london. Equity markets lift up. Simon french with us. I want to broaden it out from the u. S. Jobs data. One of the great constraints of this pandemic has been growing inequality. Labor or jobs the inequality that is out there. Ratio has savings been one of the most focused on charts during this pandemic. Frustrated consumption has been part of the story. Wifi percent to 30 savings ratio across the developed economies. High income and middle income households have been seeing a buildup of a war chest that is likely to be unleashed in Consumer Spending in 2021. Those who have lost their jobs, those who have been furloughed, those are who have struggled through this period. The rebound is going to be very asymmetrical. Tom beautifully explained. Simon, you are a great student of this. The interesting thing is the study of the United Kingdom and the United States on the and income stimulus substitution and replacement so far. Do you perceive that in britain they got it right, and they got the money to the people that need it, and in the u. S. , they got it wrong and did not get the money to the people who need i . Simon in the u k, largely fiscal policy did its job in protecting around 9 million employed incomes around its height. That is about 5 Million People that are on that scheme right now. It has got cash in the hands of those people that need it. There is a group of about 3 million selfemployed who have been less well targeted. Overall, i would give it eight out of 10. In the u. S. , it was probably a nine out of 10 initially over the summer, but whately have what we have been talking about is the lack of a second wave of stimulus has downgraded that. Francine i guess the amount of the we try to suspend economy through lockdowns, and it is unclear once we have a vaccine whether lockdowns go away. If it is contained to 12 months, how much is the limited scarring , or how limited is the scarring compared to if it had gone on for longer . Simon you are right. What we know from the history of labor Market Economics is this history affecting peoples ability to commit higher incomes after a period outside the jobs market. The longer that goes on, the more material that scarring is. What we do not know is the degree to which skills become obsolete, attachment to the labor force becomes impaired. Jobs being 9 million protected. We think about one million of those will find demand has fundamentally shifted. Businessesholds and are spending their money will not be where it was prepandemic. Is to greaselenge the wheels from people moving from the wrong side of the economy to the right side of the economy. Francine we heard from Michael Saunders of the mpc saying there is room to cut Interest Rates below zero, a move that the bank of england has never done before. Buying byly said bond itself may not be the best stimulus option, but he is laying out a rate cut with qe is better than qe alone. Do you think we will seek negative rates in the u. K. , and what would be the optimum time of going negative . Simon i do not think we will see negative. If we do see it, your second question is spot on. When will it come . Hole, wertual jackson talked about the time potential to go negative is as the economy is recovering. We talked about the savings ratio spiked. We are trying to encourage Discretionary Spending to come back. Afterhot in the arm recovery takes hold may be the right policy prescription. Potentially the likelihood for negative Interest Rates increases in the u. K. Tom simon french, thank you very much. Very interesting. This story really a movable feast right now. In new york city, ritika gupta. President elect joe biden plans to fight the spread of the coronavirus from day one of his administration. On cnn, he said he would ask americans to wear masks for the first 100 days he is in office. He has asked Anthony Fauci to stay on as the governments top Infectious Diseases expert. President trump is threatening to veto a defense spending bill unless Congress Also strips social media platforms of a key shield. The measure is expected to pass despite the president s veto threat. The first u. S. State to tell residents to stay home to fight the coronavirus is about to do it again. California governor gavin newsom warned most of the state could be ordered to shelter at home within days. He said he will order lockdowns on a regional basis. California has the fastest increasing infections since the pandemic began. Trade talks that were on the verge of a breakthrough descended into a fight between the u. K. And france. British Officials Say the European Union turned up with a new set of demands. They are not saying what the demands are. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. Our interview of the day is with the vis head of information. We will have a robust conversation on payment, cryptocurrency, and the use of cryptocurrencies for Central Banks. This is bloomberg. Erg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Bitcoin hovering at all time highs, renewing interest in the currency. The bank of International Settlements makes the case for central bank cryptocurrencies. We are delighted to be joined by Benoit Coeure. Thank you so much for joining us on bloomberg surveillance. You put out a report among Central Banks which basically sets out the Core Principles for national and digital currencies. Some Central Banks around the world are saying they are still evaluating. Are you surprised by the pace of change we can see in this space . Benoit good morning and thank you for having me. I was surprised. I have been surprised. Yearhas clearly been the research and experimenting has taken place. I am not surprised anymore. Clearly there has been a big push to contact was payments contactless payments. Thatine do you see possibly changing in the future . Benoit no. I see Central Banks around the mainly aeatening as payment instrument and change around this. The system is changing at both ends. Structures, we are bringing Central Bank Money to these new infrastructures. We are seeing a lot of new customer friendly applications and new ways to pay. We have to monitor how we bring Central Bank Money to that end of the market. Paymentimarily a discussion, not primarily in Monetary Policy discussion. Many others really question the underpinnings of bitcoin over to cyber currencies and what banking is trying to do. How can commercial banks affected this business without affect thisbanks business without the taint of the crime and scam of bitcoin . Bankt it is not central intention to stifle innovation. There is a lot of room for innovation. Safe foro see it being consumers. To so on and so forth. That is what you have seen happening over the last year as it were. Also want to see how our commercial banks can help develop the system. They have a lot to gain. This will create new services for customers. They have to embrace innovation. There,take your point and it is wonderful to see the bis leadership here. If you look at a chart of bitcoin, the major question is the underlying value of it unlike gold and fiat currencies, wha whether it is the french franc or the u. S. Dollar. Have they participated in the confidence of the underlying value of bitcoin . Benoit there is no french franc anymore. Tom there are a lot of people who say we are going to see bitcoin drift away when the underlying becomes expanded and the value goes away. Benoit i think bitcoin might be a good investment of opportunity. I am not providing business advice. You want to see currencies being stable. Policy has to be underpinned by politics. That is why Central Banks will remain at the heart of the system. Francine is there a limit of how much digital cash people can hold to avoid damaging the Banking Sector . Benoit there are lots of opportunities coming with retail cdc. Neralpurpose there are solutions. There are limits. Smart contracts in the system. You can make sure any Digital Currency will be distributed like a central bank. There are lots of ways to make sure commercial banks will not leverage, and they can the innovation to generate new services. Be thee what would best way to track and enforce it . The solution can be different in different places. There is no onesizefitsall. It can be different across countries. Just to state the obvious, privacy, data protection, data ownership can be different across countries. That can lead to different architectures. Saying at a fairly general level is tom thank you for joining us. Up 12. The vix not giving me much, 21. 05. Bonds correlate with yields up to basis points. He does not agree. Roubini. Up to say theired least. This is bloomberg. It is jobs day. Past,er pandemic, in the we have seen inequality goes up. Inequality within countries, like the tale of two ,ities, dickens wrote inequality across countries is very high. Inequality up to zero. Tom part of our jobs day coverage. Riccadonna scheduled to make an appearance. That is a good and beautiful thing. There is a job day. It will be a ministry. There is no mystery now. Extended time with Nouriel Roubini. His ability to get out front of the financial crisis was worthy. He and i had an important meeting in davos two lifetimes ago over this. Nouriel roubini on bitcoin. Scathing over the underlying value of bitcoin. What will be the catalyst that will expand the supply of bitcoin, providing a lessening s value . In the only advantage of bitcoin is its supply cannot be easily manipulated. Its supply was limited by the founders. My argument against bitcoin is not the one i have against other cryptocurrencies that are being. Ebased day in and day out it is rather that it does not have any fundamental value. Calling them cryptocurrencies is a misnomer. It has to be a scalable means of payment and a stable store of value. There is plenty of academic evidence that the price of bitcoin has been manipulated. Wash trading, front running by exchanges. It is widespread. Coin is one stable better whose supply has increased. Every time the price of bitcoin falls there is good reason to believe it is manipulated. Tom because of time, i want to cut to the chase. This believe that we can develop an adult cryptocurrency business andout crime, without scam, without the lack of transparency within the Global Financial markets. Can we do bitcoin and cryptocurrency without crime . If you have the thencement of mal and kyc, you could have some of these things regulated. They would not be used for those shady activities. We are going in a direction in which there has been introduction of central bank Digital Currency. China is doing it. Fed is going to have to do it. Bankwe have central Digital Currency come every paymentsl, we can make safely, and therefore it is going to go in cryptocurrencies that have no means of payment value, but even certain Digital Payment systems in this space, that is the future of money and currency, not crypto. Francine what does it mean for registration and enforcement . One of the questions we were asking Benoit Coeure is was there a danger to the traditional system . Someone goes to france and wants to pay in digital currencies, what data do we need to collect . It is going to be real. Banks are already doing this job. If you have a bank account, then you are converting some of your Bank Deposits in an account at the central bank. To job will be outsourced the current Financial System doing quite a good job. Central banks are not going to verify every individual. I think those issues can be managed well and in collaboration with the Central Banks. Even the Digital Payment system alipayow, venmo, square, which are linked to your bank accounts. It is the transfer of money crossborder. It always takes longer because there are these issues that are less of an issue. Those things can be managed. Think about what you are going to do you have a central bank currency. Francine when you think about covid, has it accelerated the cash flow society by a decade . Patchingin many ways, banknotes and coins can limit the disease. Negativeyou can go because excess reserve can be converted to cash. Currency,e a digital you pay in cash. You can go more negative in terms of the policy rates. In many countries, the use of cash is disappearing. They are using a qr code on their phone. We are going to a society that is going to become cashless. Central banks have to think about emoney. They are doing it. Tom we are going to come back. This is such an important aggravation. I know this will be out on fire on social today. Were going to do two blocks with Nouriel Roubini. We will do want on jobs and the economy. This raging debate about the value of the coin. Thrilled he is with us. Pandemic, Johns Hopkins university. Its moving day. And while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. It only takes about a minute. Wait, a minute . But what have you been doing for the last two hours . Delegating . Oh, good one. Move your Xfinity Services without breaking a sweat. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Xfinity makes moving easy. Go online to transfer your services in about a minute. Get started today. Tom this morning, stocks lift the dow to 30,000. 13,000 seconds for the nasdaq 100. There is new renminbi strength. Brent crude nears 100 a barrel. It is jobs day. The trend in unemployment. It is not your friend. Lastresident of the administration will administer a rally in support of two georgia senators. Mr. Trump requests a signature verification match to quickly when georgia. Roubiniund, nouriel will be with us in moments and i continue our discussion on bitcoin. Jobs day. Balance of power with us later. None of it matters. All that matters is fishing north in the path of the sea coast to get scottish