What we are get interesting the university of Michigan Sentiment survey. The headline number, way, way weaker than anticipated. That number coming in at 77. Thats down from 81. 8 last time around. When things are good well north of 100. The expectation was for 82. Current conditions, 85. 8. Thats actually ahead of expectations. But its the expectation number, the forwardlooking number here, that is really sharply lower. Coming through at 71. 3, alix, versus 79. 1 in terms of where the market, the economists had forecast that number. Down from 79. 2. A much more gloomy outlook for the u. S. Consumer from the u. S. Consumer. Alix no doubt. As covid cases are spiking everywhere here in the new york, it feels like we are headed for a School Shutdown as well. Get the read on what that means to the consirmse with ajay. Its always good to get your read. You have this more pessimistic expectation outlook from the consumer. Then you have rising covid cases and you have targeted regional shutdowns in the u. S. What does that mean for your business . Ajay you can see it impact Consumer Spending. Nobodys traveling the. Nobodys going to the theater. Nobodys out in public entertainment events. We have been managing our company through four stages. And the first one is containment. That was the marchapril period when everything began to shut down. The second is stableation. And then normalization which is a big word for better than stabilization but not really normal. A new normal. We are in some stages of that. It goes back and forth. Increasing cases and the like. Then finally when you get back with vaccines and like maybe sometimes toward the second half of next year. Well look back at getting back done sumer spending domestically, pretty good shape. Most countries have been growing Consumer Spending domestically. The second wave laughing through of the u. S. Could crimp some of that. In our case we get to others, one is that everything is cyclical. People using cash are using some for of contactless card. The second part in our data analytics, these are doing very well. In the environment where everybody is going. Its a mixed bag. Guy plenty to unpack. Lets segment it a little bit. Talk first of all about what is happening with travel. You talk about the weakness we are seeing with travel. I talked to a number of c. E. O. s and asked them the question how much are they traveling . They say a lot less. I talk to the swiss c. E. O. Said his budget will be down by 30 . Probably more than that. In terms of what they ultimately come into. What do you think when does travel come back . When does Business Travel come back . And how different do you think Business Travel will be when it comes back . Business travel will be last. China and japan they are the greatest in normalization of the environment than we have here today in the u. S. It looks like pleasure travel will come back quicker. Travel per se requires not just a vaccine thats out there sometime, but it also requires a decree of testing and cross border possibilities. For travel. You can see singapore experimenting with corridors with countries as is china as is japan. Australia is beginning to talk about it. I think travel would begin not domestic. Domestic travel has demands. More than a million passenger as day. At the bottom of the crisis in that stabilization phase, they were down to 100,000. Precovid, three million. We are back to where we used to be. But Domestic Travel is up there. This is cross border im referring to when i talk about the trends. Alix one thing we are seeing thats different at least in the u. S. , part of the reason why Consumer Spending and peoples Bank Accounts held up so well, it doesnt look like it will happen, maybe a different story over in europe. I want to get your perspective on the urgency. What is the drop dead date when your cows tomorrowers are like i cant pay my bill . Ajay i dont actually see. Im not issuing. The banks are issuing. Im not the best one to give you the perspective of a date. I can tell you that when the stimulus checks were flowing into first stimulus into the United States consumer, consumers overseas you can see Bank Accounts beginning to grow and spending in the kind of stores that even people who were lower income strata would go. I can certainly see a slowdown. I saw that as the stimulus checks dried up here in the u. S. And elsewhere. We do need to think again about when and how to provide that fiscal stimulus. I dont think its monetary stimulus. Theres enough liquidity in the markets. The Central Banks learned really well from the last crisis. I think they expect them very early and well to keep the markets growing. We need checks into peoples pockets. Small businesses even more than others. You know the impact of small businesses, minorities over the last six months is disproportionate to that of others. Guy what would you do if you were part of this administration . What would you do if you were at the treasury in terms of making sure that the u. S. Government delivers what the u. S. Economy needs . There have been rumors you are interested in serving. Is that true . What would you do if you were there ajay the rumors are wrong. Get that out of the way. Master card, im the first of january, and i have no intention of going anywhere from this role. But back to your bigger question. The question about what we could be doing in the u. S. Like i said i think fiscal stimulus is really important. Monetary stimulus, we need to make sure we can get the right kind of stimulus for small businesses. I think the p. P. P. Program, while people can cant say it was executed perfectly, in the meet of the mom in the heat of the moment it did a great job. Keep the inbloomberg. Coming to small businesses. If you have seven employees, there is nothing wrong with your business. Terrific employees. There is no flow of tourism coming in. We have to help you tide over this period with your employees and rent so you can come out the next few months. If you believe the vaccine will be widely available. We need to find a bigger title in these next months in a constructive way. Small businesses and minorities and other businesses. Alix squashing that Administration Position there. What do you think is going to happen to financial regulations, scrutiny, the fear and narrative in the market is that thats going to come under a much brighter spotlight under president elect biden. What does that mean for master card thats trying to expand into businesstobusiness payments and trying to grow their business into different areas . Ajay business has changed a great deal over the past decade. Earlier we were in the business of enabling payments for credit cards. We have gone way beyond that. Today we have gone about revenue coming from data. Analytics. Cyber security. Artificial intelligence. Those spaces. We have more a big chunk from real payments. Only true player who keck to instant payment. We announced yet that the ontactless payments to canada. And parts of saudi, latin america. I think we get money from that. We get revenue out of commercial payments and prepaid cards and debit cards. We have card in our name. That doesnt make the company only interested in the account. So my general opinion, regulation done right is actually to create a level Playing Field for allle it. I am happy with that regulation. In fact, i would want to constructively participate in dialogues that are on that topic. I embrace that in many ways. What is needed is the regulation unequal Playing Field, benefits one or the other, and i dont think government should be choosing winners or losers in business. You can certainly look after citizens. Businesses should be allowed to compete. The same way i believe that regulation that creates protectionism is bad. I believe it creates guide rails for businesses to run. And may the best one win. Guy you can tell its going to be an area the regulation will take a very, very keen look at. I genuinely cant remember the last time i used money, real money. Thats the world we now live in. Lets talk about Digital Currencies. Jay powell, the bank of england, and Kristi Lagarde were on a panel and talking about Digital Currencies. Kristi lagarde sounded on the front foot when she was talking about where we go next with digital curncy. She said this, if its cheaper for us to more secure to use those, we should explore it. Its going to have a better autonomy for the europe area, we should explore it. Ajay, how far do you think we are away from Digital Currencies from the u. S. And europe, what impact would they have on your business . Ajay Digital Currency spans a lot of spaces. What they are discussing central bank Digital Currencies which are converted into digital which what christine is referencing. And lot of countries around the world, the u. K. , singapore have looked at this. As is the u. S. Federal reserve. Im a believer in the fact if they are going to go to Digital Currencies for all the right reasons, we should be going there because the central bank supported. I am less confident about currencies that are not done because i believe currency is a social contact between a government and its citizens. It needs a lot of careful manage nthat process. Having said that, stable forms are better because it takes away the volatility angle. We dont solve for all the other topics. Im fan of central bank Digital Currencies. Master card has been investing in this space for a while. My general view, authorize 200 different currencies in the world. Authorize 200 different Digital Currencies . These people still need to connect into the systems of acceptance. We believe we can provide that. We are among the largest in the state of central bank Digital Currencies. We have large commercial banks and Central Banks to innovate together in the space. It depends where they are going if they go in the form thats the settlement between banks, thats another easy one. If its a form where there is a double tier, meaninging the central bank, commercial banks play a role. Need to find a way to connect them to consumers and businesses. Thats one kind. If its one versus central bank and consumer, thats a different game with a different risk profile. I dont think thats the one that christine is referring. To they are referring to that double tier one in the middle. And im a fan of those. Im a believer those will come and we should participate in them. Guy thanks for your time today. We appreciate it. Ajay banga. Its worth pointing out also a Founding Partner of the new Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum. Beginning monday, the new Economy Forum will be bringing together Global Leaders to discuss building an inclusive and sustainable economy in the postcovid world. You have been watching on bloomberg. Com on the terminal or live goog and Bloomberg New economy social channels on twitter and facebook. This is bloomberg. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. President trump has signed an executive order barring American Investment in Chinese Companies owned or controlled by the military. The order says china is exploiting American Capital to develop its military and other security apparatuses. China has congratulated joe biden and Kamala Harris on winning the president ial election. That ended days of speculation about when beijing would formally acknowledge the victory. China was one of the few countries that had withheld comment. State and federal Election Officials are rejecting president trumps claims of widespread voting fraud. They say last weeks election was the most secure and american history. They add there is no evidence that any Voting System deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised. Some Congressional Republicans trumpding with president over his refusal to acknowledge the outcome of the election. They say joe biden should receive residential intelligence briefings. President trump started getting briefed a week after his election in 2016. So far he has refused to allow biden to get that information. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Tom lets cup and talk a little bit about what is happening in these markets. It started off with everyone getting very excited about the pfizer vaccine, and we saw this huge shift to the other side of the boat as everybody went into the value trade. The week is wrapping up with everybody refocusing on what is happening with the virus, the fact it is picking up aggressively in europe and the United States. So what are investors to do . What do you make of this narrative . Which one do you invest in, now or the back half of next year . Joining usovich is with his thoughts on this. What did we learn, and what does it mean for investors . Tobias we have been of the mindset that investors need to think about the value trade prior to this. On instance, we were focused a number of issues bond yields moving up since Early September and showing some pressure on the stoxx, and as a result, really having some impact here. We started to see the loss of leadership of a number of the big mega cap tech names over the past couple of months. The vaccine news just continues to suggest the value trade has more opportunity. Alix you still , so how do youh position correctly . Tobias you dont have to own tech. Theres no have to own anything. I think evaluations already reflect that very low Interest Rate environment, but i would take it a step further. As you move into february, march, april, irrespective of which wouldng probably be more impactful in the latter half of the year, youre going to see some very dramatic changes in comparisons for what you would call the covid beneficiaries, the ones getting stronger Business Trends because of work from home. They were booming in 2020, and they are going to see their momentum slow just because a very difficult comparisons. Conversely, those who have been in compared industries may see their business down. This is going to last for several months. It doesnt mean it is going to go away. We have over weights in semiconductors and technology hardware. We are worried that software and ares are b particularly aggressively valued. Guy when i commit to this value trade, how do i know the difference between a business and a sector that is going to bounceback, and a sector that is going to have longterm structural changes that are likely to be negative as a result of covid . I appreciate theres going to be a rebound probably for everybody, but the order of magnitude is going to be significant. Some businesses simply arent go to come back. Tobias lets look at travel. We think Corporate Travel is going to be damaged. Companies dont necessarily need as many of the people traveling to see other people. Client engagement will still come back, but not necessarily intercompany travel. People are going to use videoconferencing and things like that to run their business think people can watch drones flying around the coliseum in rome to give them a tour, but they are going to want to do that themselves when they can. Athink theres kind of difference, and we have to thing about where there is going to be more of an impact, but entertainment, hospitality, leisure, those things will probably come back once people feel comfortable. I think theres another thing that you kind of hinted at may be, and that is particularly leveraged industries may find themselves forced to do equity issuance and dilute shareholders , for example, as we saw with banks in 2009, 2010. What is the right time to make this pivot . If we learned anything this week from the pfizer news, it felt like it was by the news immediately and then sell it. Stack up against moderna and the timing of it. Tobias i think the problem is there such a crowding in these covid winners at the inability for people to have moved a lot those one or two days causes these incredibly volatile conditions. So maybe things move forward a down it ar two. I dont think you can wait into all the news is out because it will probably be a bit too late to do that. In some instances, stocks dropped 20 a day and go up 30 in a day, and that is just where they were positioned and the illiquidity in the trading activity. I think any time some of these mega caps tech stocks really run, there will be some sellers who want to get out. Every time there is pullback in some of the value areas in the cyclicals, the travel, has but halep he, and leisure group, to some extent financials travel, hospitality, and leisure group, to some extent financials, there will be some coming off of it. It will happen over several months, not one or two days. Guy you are not a bond analyst, but lets talk about the relationship between what is happening in fixed income and equities. We have heard from a variety of Central Banks this week making it very clear that they will continue to provide lots of liquidity. That is likely to keep a lid on yields. We may get up to 1. 2 . We are not going to go much further is certainly the consensus trade. How does that limit the value . Strategistsrates , butalking about 1. 25 another 30 basis is pretty significant for the financials and the value trade, the banks, things like that. They can get more upside, and they are pretty attractively valued. There are other issues in terms of fintech disruption, but you could see that trade continue. Two, if you were to look at the inability, Interest Rates arent driving activity. You need confidence in the Business Community to actually take on those loans, no matter what the cost. Why would have are a money if i am not going to do capital expenditures. We are kind of seeing that. The fed or other Central Banks cant force anybody to borrow money. Int is more about confidence business to actually provide that. Third, as the economy gets better, call it mid next year into the latter part of next way, ind a more durable suspect Central Banks are saying we dont have to provide as much support as we did before because we are getting back towards normal. I dont think we are going to be back towards normal for a good ,hile still, but it is the path and then the verbiage will probably change for Central Banks. Alix tobias, it is good to catch up with you. Also talking about what we have seen this week, heres a stat for you from bank of america. U. S. Equities had their second largest inflow ever, taking you to30 due . 5 billion 32. 5 billion. The question is, are we done . Where do we go from here . Coming up, restaurants are bracing for a brutal winter. We will speak to the ceo of plans for inventory. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg markets. Restaurants in new york are preparing for another potential lockdown as winter approaches. Here to break down what it means for the industry, bloombergs Michael Mckee is here with more. Michael this chart kind of tells you what is going on. These are the highfrequency indicators economists are watching. Since we saw a rebound back in may, june and july, all of these things have pretty much flattened out until very recently. Now we are starting to see the rollover as more things shut down. The one thing i want to point out to you, this is the mobility , and airplane loading, but the white line is the opentable restaurant reservations. They have really rolled over. These are sevenday moving. Verages one thing from that, we are starting to see the lockdowns again. Remember what we saw earlier in the year, now we are starting to see more restrictions on who can gather and how money people can gather. As you can see from the yellow notes here, it is not as bad as it was in the beginning of the year, yet people are more reluctant to shut things down. Theres also a lot fewer restaurants out there because they have closed. But we are getting into the winter, when restaurants who have been serving people outdoors are going to have a much harder time doing so. That raises questions about where we go from here. You look at employment in the industry, and it is terrible. We have gained back a lot of the jobs that were lost, but we are still more than 2 million restaurant and bar jobs short of where we were back in february. A major impact from this virus on that industry in particular. Guy thank, indeed. The virus clearly having an on theon the virus old food industry. Ceo, hourican, sysco joining us now. You want to know about this company . It is the Worlds Largest mobile Food Services distributor. Kevin knows what he is talking about. What are you getting right now . What are you hearing . . What is the industry telling you . Kevin as you just heard, the restrictions that are happening again with this covid waves are pretty significant in the industry. We are doing more to help those restaurant customers than anyone else in the industry to be successful and to make their way through this pretty difficult time that will be in front of them. We announced today the thertunity to waive all of minimums to take stresses off of their backs so they can focus on serving the customers, while also helping them be profitable. Alix lets break down what you are seeing. Anecdotally, here in new york, diningdining is outer is pretty compulsory. What are the supplies restaurants are asking you for, and how is that changing over the last few weeks as we have seen targeted lockdowns . Question,is a great and i am being after that often. To be crystal clear, it is restrictions on the customer. We have not seen significant differentials in Business Performance for coldweather versus warmer weather. It is when on premise dining is or 25 in 75 , 50 , some locations, so what we have been working with our customers is to ensure they have a vital capability, that the website has been converted to a mobile version that is easy to use. As it relates to your question on what they are ordering, they are ordering the same things they were ordering before. They are just ordering and lower volumes, which is why today weve announced we will eliminate those minimums. Guy guy can i talk to you about what impact you think the vaccine news will have . Do you think the effects will be that people will look at it and say there is light at the end of the tunnel . It is going to be really difficult throughout the winter, but if i can just keep my business going, i now know that there is a way out. Is that what people that are running restaurants are telling you . What is the optimism at the moment . Kevin that is a good question. I think it is the confidence in therapeutics, having the death rate come down, and the vaccine component, the light at the end of the tunnel. Bunch. E a resilient these independent entrepreneurs are fighters. We are doing more to help them survive and succeed in this crisis. There were reports back in the april, may timeframe that we could see 30 , 40 bankruptcies in this space. We believe that is greatly exaggerated. Our customers are currently closed at less than 10 . That could tick upward through these winter months, but we believe it is going to be much less of a permanent closure than what some media has been reporting. We are doing everything to help them survive, increasing the profitability through consultation. Alix in the market, boom got that pfizer headline, it was in the market, when we got that pfizer headline, it was literally off to the races. When we get a vaccine, is Economic Activity going to be the same kind of thing . Theres a vaccine, lets all herd mentality go to a restaurant. Our business is preparing for that . What do you think the on off switch is going to look like . Kevin what we are seeing is that the consumer is ready, willing and able to go back out to eat as soon as it is safe to do so. In locations where there are fewer restrictions, our performance is actually quite good. It is almost a direct line between restrictions on the customer and performance. We can clearly see the consumer is ready to go out to eat. There is pentup demand. And yes, we anticipate a robust recovery as soon as it is safe, and safe will be driven in part by that vaccine, and there is a light at the end of the tunnel coming hopefully in the early part of next year. Guy how different is thanks giving going to be this year . Kevin it is going to be very different. The holidays in general will be very different than in the past. One of the things we have launched is what we call a holiday toolkit. The largest salesforce in the industry is going one by one with our customers to help them with things like take out thanksgiving, take out holiday parties, were obviously the size of the number of people gathering will be much smaller this year, but we want our Restaurant Partners to be able to produce takehome meals that can in fact be served to a family that you can say is covid free if they come over, so we believe there will be much more take out. Think of it from a meal kit perspective. That is something we are very focused on right now. Alix give us perspective of how you are running through the day today. How many levers do you feel like you are the restaurants have to pull to help their pricing power, help their cash flow . The easy, low hanging fruit with probably already pulled already. Give me some insight into that. Kevin we just posted our q1 results, and had a very strong performance. Operating income positive, we produced over 900 billion of Free Cash Flow in an environment where our business is down more than 20 . So really proud of our team and the work we are doing to manage expenses, manage accounts receivable, really Strong Financial returns. Our concern is our customers. They dont have the financial strength that we as a Large Company do, and we are extending ourselves meaningfully to be able to help them. This announcements of waiving the order minimum is just that. They will be fluctuating up and down through the coming weeks and months. We want to just take that worry of Inventory Management off their plate, if you will. Frankly, from a takeout and delivery perspective, how they run the restaurant is very different than a dining environment. Many customers are learning that they can be profitable at a much lower level of volume. It is just quite different than it was prepended. Alix interesting point. Kevin, thank you so much. Always good to get your perspective. Thank you very much. We want to turn to some breaking news in connecticut. There are reports of deaths and serious injuries following an explosion at a Veterans Affairs hospital. State and federal investigators have gone to the v. A. Medical center in west haven. A television station reported that smoke could be seen rising from the building. We are going to continue to monitor and bring you any of those to filaments. This is blimp those developments. This is bloomberg. Alix coming up later today on the close, we will hear from the draftkings ceo. That is at 3 30 p. M. In new york, 8 30 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, im alix steel, with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell is setting up a confirmation vote for judy shelton at the Federal Reserve as early as next week. She has drawn criticism for her past support of the Gold Standard and her question of the need for a central bank. At the same time, president elect joe biden is on the hunt for his treasury secretary. While brainerd is reportedly at Lyle Brainard is reportedly at the top of that list. What would that mean, if she was head of the treasury . Sonali the most important thing is she was a little harder on the banks. Youve seen a lot of the other fed governors harder on the bank then you have seen a lot of be during the trump era. You can start to see a picture that might be a lot harder on the entire Financial System than initially expected. Guy theres a story on the bloomberg that is getting a lot of traction today. It is about the sec, about people like gary gensler potentially moving into that post. That would certainly have wall street worried. Is that where the focus would be . Sonali absolutely. There is a timeline to look at, too. Preet aurora is also being to arara preet preet bh is another being discussed. He is another that is tough on wall street. When we are talking not just the treasury, but treasury, sec, all of these agencies put together, whoever makes up that group of regulators starts to create the picture of just how hard this administration could be on the industry, despite what you think Congress Might look like in the future. Alix to that point, i am wondering which part is wall street most worried about. Theres a crackdown on whitecollar crime, more restrictions in general, Capital Gains issues, more m a scrutiny. Where is everyone freaking out . Sonali the m a scrutiny is not of immediate concern to the bankers at least. It would regard a lot of antitrust issues at doj, and you are worried about the crackdown on big tack, but not necessarily worried about a lot of what is going to drive deal activity in the next couple of years, which is a lot of distress firms, pharma. You are worried about the big banks, the hedge funds being reined in on risktaking, and what allows them to take money in the first place. Consumer protections, are they going to have to pay bigger fines because of their dealing with consumers . Is that limited not just to the big banks, but all of the nonbanks as well . Remember, all of the Biggest Mortgage Companies in america are not necessarily banks anymore. Guy we are going to wrap it up there. Thank you very much, indeed. Wall street a little worried. Sonali pesek, thank you very much, indeed asked sonali basak, thank you very much, indeed sonali basak, thank you very much, indeed. Judith hartmann is going to be joining us. Nowassociated press is reporting that two were killed following an explosion at a Veterans Affairs hospital. We are going to continue to monitor that situation and bring you the key developments. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel is a new york. This is bloomberg markets. The ongoing ballot count in the United States and a Covid Vaccine on the horizon sent markets into a frenzy this week. Scarlet fu is here to break it down. Scarlet we had a mixed week in the cash market, although the are muted compared to the cash market. It all comes back to the between themes that have dominated this week, a divided government led by joe biden and progress on pfizers vaccine. A vaccine signals a pass to normalcy. The reopening of the economy. Consumers getting on planes and employees getting into their cars and driving into the office, which means demand for oil. Take a look at oil futures. They have shut up in the past week. The bgi wti up almost 9 . That would mark almost a third 9 move in a month. In the two previous spikes we had seen, they were followed by big declines in consequent weeks. Something to keep in mind there. Something else that has come up a lot if the collapse of the vix futures curve. What you want to keep in mind is that the november futures contract, the yellow line, stops trading next week. In the weeks leading up to the election, we had seen a big bump up in the vix futures curve in the october and november contract. As joe bidens lead in the polls started to widen in the days before the election, people started to bet on a drop in volatility, and that has come to pass. Alix scarlet, thank you so much. Lets stay with energy and commodities. In europe may have an effect on demand for power and natural gas. Hartmann, is judith cocfo, the and biggest utility in europe. From a power perspective, what are you seeing . Judith we are seeing an improvement certainly versus the second quarter, where of course, the strength of the lockdowns come but also the fact that a lot of the big countries were in lockdown all at the same time had a really big impact back then. But now what we are seeing is that they are roughly back up to andelow a normal level, countries going down into lockdown measures, it could go down to 5 or 6 below. Many of the governments are very committed to keep the economy running, so we are seeing a lot of activity, and really the small dip coming from the industries, some of them that you have just mentioned, including from airlines, but also restoration and so on, where the demand is just not there at the moment. Guy what happens when we get a vaccine . If theyre suddenly going to be huge demand for energy . Is it people going back to the office as a different type of Energy Consumption . How do you see it checking out . Do you think it will be a sudden surge in terms of that shift . Judith the vaccine is obviously something we all hope for to get back to a more normalized life. Not sure it is coming that quickly in terms of having a full impact on the economy, so i think we need to be ready to live with the virus for some time to come. But obviously it would be very much a positive topic if we had the vaccine. Our share price went up upon the news that there was a closer solution now, and clearly that goes to show you that yes, indeed, a lot of hope goes into get usccine that could back to a more normal life and more normal consumption pattern. Alix does it change your Energy Distribution or reaction function . What kind of energy, how you distribute it if things open up . Judith for us, we still keep the view on the longterm. As an energy company, investment that you make are for decades ahead of you. Our assets are longterm assets, so we have made a very strong commitment to renewables. We are installing three to four gigawatts already per year, and even in this covid year, we are investing a lot into the future of energy, and that is what needs to happen. We are not going back on the contrary. This shows that collectively, we have the fragility of the Economic System at times, so you dont want to add Climate Change as another negative on top of covid. That is why we see an opportunity to continue to invest into renewables, but also into Energy Infrastructure in how to distribute green energy. The financial markets, many of the analysts that cover your stock were a little bit surprised when you confirmed your guidance. There was fear that you might not be able to do that. What gives you the degree of certainty to be able to commit to that guidance given the volatility that we see in just about every aspect of all of our lives right now . Judith judith this is a very volatile world, and i understand the concerns. What i would say is this is a team that has been working very hard. We had a difficult second quarter. We have been very impacted by covid. In the first nine months, about one billion of our results have disappeared into the covid crisis, so you can imagine that as a headwind. A lot of effort has gone into looking at all of the processes, making sure to include social distancing, and everything is being integrated in what we are doing. We have really communicated with the governments around us that we have to keep the economy running. The governments will not be able to substitute themselves for the real economy, which means you end in whoever is watching this need to be out there, need to be able to work. Of course, while ticking care of our health, but it is really important. That is what gives us the confidence. We are much better prepared to go into the fourth quarter. We are in a locked down and some of our main countries. France is a point in case. But our levels are very close to normal rates. To give you an example, in april, our activity rates were down to 65 . We are now above 90 . So quite frankly, we are committed to making this happen, and we were very happy to confirm the guidance at the end of the day, and it was well received by the market. Alix when do you have to review your position on nord stream 2 . We asked you that last time. The u. S. Is drawing up additional sanctions on the pipeline from russia. When do you have to change the position . Judith right now there is no reason to change any position. Theres different steps in the contracts that would come into play here. December is when the construction will have been stopped for a year, and of course, that will be a big time to rediscuss with all of our partners. As of right now, we are still hopeful that this pipeline is going to happen, and of course, we are working on this and watching this very closely. Guy in terms of some of these statements you have put out on various components of your business, a lot of work ahead apparently to prepare for the carveout of your services activity. Can you define what that means, how long this process is going to take, and when we see the endgame being fulfilled . We havetwo main topics talked about with the market, confirmation of the guidance on the back of a huge recovery in the Third Quarter in comparison to a very difficult second quarter, and the second topic was indeed the strategic progress. We are really looking at this year. Theres of course a lot of Crisis Management ongoing, as i just explained, but the Strategic Direction is very clear, and speed is of the essence here. We have worked on our supplication our simplification already in this quarter. Partve sold a significant of the patents. We have talked about what we have defined for client solutions. Guy edith, i am going to judith, i am going to have to wrap things up. Sorry about that. Thank you very much. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkinbath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkinbath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkinbath provides independence with peace of mind. Guy friday the 13th. Live from london, im guy johnson. What do you need to know from europe this hour . Germany crushing hopes for a normal christmas. Austria signaling it will extend its regional lockdown instead of having a national one. The virus rather than the vaccine is setting the agenda at the back end of this week. Will the departure of Dominic Cummings from number 10 downing street deliver a brexit reset . The pound rises on occasions that without the vote leave architect by his side, johnson will compromise. Santander says it plans to cut another 4000 jobs in spain, 13 of the workforce. Santander stock this week up by 30 . That is as banks in europe and europe generally has actually had a very strong week. Today it is a