Razor thin margins in places like georgia. Tom i do want to note, very importantly, the japanese out to new strength moments ago. Joe biden out to new strengths, and theres no question the key gone bidenrgia has ever so slightly. Ahead for mr. Es biden in georgia. Jonathan everyone doing the math and saying the passed for the president just gets narrower and narrower. The president overnight continuing to push back in a uniform manner from the whole campaign. Tom really extraordinary to see that. I know we will have some images of that press conference last night. , wethose of you worldwide will have our experts on that. What is so important to me is the idea that this is just not the president. He has galvanized trump nation to send a message out that this is fraud. Georgia, pennsylvania, nevada, arizona, the counting continues. That is the focus through this morning. Toa we are waiting to hear see whether we can pencil in joe biden as the next president. That does seem to be what is on the table. Depending on what you look at with respect to electoral votes, joe either has 264 or 253 versus the 214 of President Trump. The key issue is it is going to be tuesday night in america for a very long time because theres going to be a lot of litigation. , 8 30 a. M. Ay of course, we are focused on the election. There is expectation of a deceleration of the jobs recovery. A big question is where these recovery will occur and how much we are pressing in the ramping end of the covid pandemic. Again, this really will be the center stage story next week when you start seeing some of these record numbers and the prospect of possible lockdowns in the United States. Tomorrow, Berkshire Hathaway reporting results. Usually people care. Perhaps this. Much perhaps this week, not so much. Opportunityame out in an environment that is still so uncertain . Jonathan did you just struggle to get a third thing. [laughter] lisa what would you say . Please, i would love to you this. Jonathan at least you are honest. Lets get the price action. The s p, we are down 0. 7 . Eurodollarrket, 1. 1880. Euro firm or by another 0. 5 . The dollar headed for the worst weekly loss going all the way back to march. In the bond market, yields unchanged. It has been the struggle of the week. How do you explain what has happened in this market over the last several days . Tom the market has been extraordinary. The correlations yesterday pretty tight. On the dollar dynamics, it is an advantage to speak to alan ruskin of Deutsche Bank and Catherine Mann from citigroup. They really pushed against a substantial weak dollar thesis. Jonathan equities lower, the dollar still weaker. Vice President Joe Biden calling for calm as votes continue to be counted. Mr. Biden we continue to feel very good about where things stand. We have no doubt that when the count is finished, senator harris and i will be declared the winners. Calm,sk everyone to stay all the people to stay calm. The process is working. The count is being completed. We will know very soon. Speaking last night at the white house, President Trump still in talking still attacking the integrity of the election. He says the courts will decide. Pres. Trump we think we will win the election very easily. We think there is going to be a lot of litigation because we have so much evidence, so much proof, and it is going to end up perhaps at the highest court in the land. We will see. As you know, i have claimed certain states, and he is claiming states, but ultimately, judges are going to have to rule. Jonathan Kevin Cirilli is going to be joining us in a moment. If you have so much evidence, so much proof, why dont you show someone the evidence and the proof . The allegations keep coming. The evidence and the proof isnt coming with it. Tom maybe it will be a sharper message in the coming hours and days. Two judges yesterday asking the same question. Where is the evidence . Futures at 23 on this job stay. Kevin cirilli joins us now come our chief washington correspondent. Ive got to go to your wonderful knowledge of philadelphia and pennsylvania state. When we speak of votes in philadelphia, what are we speaking of . Urban philadelphia, or does that include the affluent counties that circle it . Kevin the margin of Philadelphia County is going to be remarkable simply because that margin is going to be whether or not joe biden is able to take pennsylvania. There is a huge difference in in in af a joe biden w predominantly democratic county, and quite frankly, that margin of victory could be the deciding factor of whether or not the keystone state and its electoral votes go to joe biden or to President Trump. That is where pennsylvania is in play. As biased as i am as a political reporter about the importance of pennsylvania, it might not even come down to pennsylvania because overnight, joe biden taking a very small but still a lead in the battleground state of georgia, just a couple of thousand votes. That makes it incredibly remarkable that, should he just get one more state, he would surpass that magic 270 vote threshold. Georgia,ant to get to and yet that idea that he would get to that threshold is predicated on the fact that arizona would stand, and yet we are going to be hearing more of an update on Maricopa County in particular, the most populous county in arizona. How close is this . Kevin that is a really great point. Just in terms of the chronology of the next 72 hours, youve got pennsylvania officials saying they might not get to additional vote counts through saturday. Maricopa county providing an update within the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, nevada, they are still counting votes in clark county, where las vegas is, 2 3 of the electorate in nevada, throughout the weekend. North carolina could be headed for a runoff, which would take several days. It is unknown if people are asking when will this be over. It is unknown. But we are still, i would say, based upon the chronology still coming out, maybe a day or so. But people are carefully watching the lead and where that is going to be factored in. Tom did kevin just say we are going to be doing this monday . Jonathan he did, unfortunately. Lisa and tuesday. Jonathan we are still going to be doing this monday, wednesday, maybe even thursday . Kevin lisa gave me a heart attack. [laughter] jonathan just quickly, on pennsylvania, who would you rather be right now . The president leading, or joe biden chipping away at that lead . Kevin i am going to dodge that question. I think in terms of the trajectory of the race and where the votes are coming in in Philadelphia County, that would lend itself for the democrats. However, i would note that the president yesterday, speaking in the brady breathing room, continued to suggest that there is going to be a legal case. I would also add that from a strategic standpoint, there is a very real fight happening in real time, some of it publicly on airwaves, as well as in conservative media, about will the Republican Party hold and continue to back President Trump in his legal pursuit of this. Theres a lot of contours to this context, chief among them the 2020 for president ial prep the 2024 president ial primary. This is important. Theres also a fight happening for whether or not Speaker Pelosi has a mandate in the house of representatives. There was a call yesterday with Democratic House members, and that really matters how a Biden Administration would be able to govern, if it is aggressive or centrist. It he goes out to2024 like is nothing. Hes a political junkie. Thank you. Right now, to link the equity performance we have been seeing into this political moment, sebastien page joins us with t. Rowe price. Two days out, maybe three days out, ive lost count. Can you go along based on the election surge . Sebastien i would stay neutral here, in terms of equities versus bonds. Now is not the time to be a hero. In our portfolios, we are still long what you would call the recovery trade. The price action of the last two days has been favorable for growth. What is happening is you have a risk on reaction to this purple outcome, if you will, or constrained biden possible you are also covid on. You take tax hikes off the table, but then probably get a weaker stimulus. The market wants to rally. Weve had 30 yearoveryear increase in money supply. The stock market wants to rally. But we are still covid on, so you see Growth Stocks doing well. Long story short, we are neutral here between stocks and bonds. It is going to be a bumpy ride. You are probably going to see more volatility and opportunities to get in and either direction, but under that position, now is probably a good time to dig advantage of attractive valuations in the recovery trade. Smallcap, value credit, emerging markets. Jonathan how useful are these neat narratives about why things have happened over the last three days, when as you say, this market wants to rally . Shouldnt that tell you everything you need to know right now . Sebastien i think there is a tremendous amount of liquidity. There is still cash on the sidelines. The narratives get mixed up and change over time. I know you have had a really tough week in the media business, and it is probably going to continue for a while, as you were saying earlier. All of this is creating uncertainty for markets, but at the end of the day, we have had 25 trillion in current and potential measures in terms of stimulus globally, between monetary and fiscal policy. Rates are near zero. The market wants to rally. Nonetheless, lets not discount the fact that it looks like we are taking tax hikes off the table. This is meaningful if using of the market as a weighing machine between may be lower stimulus, but we take the tax hikes off the table. Then also, with a president biden, you probably get less volatility in terms of trade isotiations, but all of this dominating the headlines. Meanwhile, we are in a new wave of the pandemic. That explains a little but the Growth Stocks performances. Lisa i really enjoy the neat narrative, and i am looking at markets right now at the highest conviction narratives, that the dollar will continue to weaken. We are seeing a new post 2018 weakness today in the bloomberg dollars but index. Do you expect it to continue bloomberg dollar spot index. Do you expect it to continue to weaken . Sebastien we have a relatively bearish view on the dollar. This is a function of the fact that the fed is going to continue to be incredibly dovish. We didnt get a lot from the fed this week, except asset purchases are still on the table. When you think of the dollar, it is all in relative terms in the currency world. You have to think of relative growth between the u. S. And the rest of the world. You have to think in terms of relative inflation environment. We are not seeing a lot of inflation on our six to 18 month horizon at the moment. Look at the equity market, and the great debate here is what we have seen or some form of rotation in the midcaps, small caps, and indeed international. The legacy of t. Rowe price on these kind of calls is just enormous. They basically invented this on the buy Side Research side. Are we going to see that rotation . Sebastien i think over the next six to 18 months, we are likely to see the great rotation, if you will, especially between growth and value. It is incredible. Last is down 44 over the 12 months relative to growth. As we move into a covid off environment, at some point we get through this. We will get through this. There are vaccines on the way. Hundreds of millions of doses being produced. As you move into that risk off that risk on but covid off environment, you get an environment where you could get value stocks outperforming. Some stock analysts are starting to upgrade banks, for example. Cyclicality in a normal economic recovery tends to outperform. However, i wouldnt say put all of your money into value. Right now we are close to neutral. We are just incrementally building into value methodically, if you will. Jonathan appreciate it. Very nuanced. Sebastian page of t. Rowe price, thank you. I love the calls for asset allocators because we always forget to ask about the calls in six to 18 months. It is playing out right now is almost bizarre. If you didnt know what happened tuesday night and i showed you the price action, almost the only explanation for any of this is that on tuesday night, wednesday morning, the fed announced 500 billion of extra qe. Is also the reprice of gridlock. I think theres not been enough said about that, and of course, that is most uncertain this friday morning. Gridlock in a good way, as chris harvey of wells fargo said. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Brown up next, dr. Larry dr. Lara brown of the George WashingtonUniversity Grad school of political management. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden is tightening his hold on the race for the white house. He has now taken the lead in georgia, and also leads in nevada and is catching up to President Trump in pennsylvania. Biden is closing in on that 270 electoral votes needed for an election when. He says on election win. He says he has no doubt that when the count is over, he will be the winner. President trump has promised lawsuits in four states, saying the election is being stolen from him, despite no evidence of widespread illegal voting. Fed reserve chair Jerome Powell has opened the door to a possible shift in the Central Banks bond purchases. He says that more fiscal and monetary support is needed because of rising Coronavirus Infections that threaten the economy. For now, policy makers agreed to maintain bond buying at the current rate. Economists expect the u. S. Governments latest job report to reflect a slowdown in the labor market. The median estimates in the Bloomberg Survey says that 593,000 jobs were created last month. The jobs report is out as a is out at 8 30 a. M. New york time. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. The vote in america, is sacred. It is how people in this nation express there will, and it is , no one,of the voters not anything else that chooses the president of the United States of america. So each ballot must be counted, and that is what we are going to see going through now. Pres. Trump our goal is to defend the integrity of the election. We will not allow corruption to steal the election, and we cant allow silence, we cant allow anybody to silence our voters. Jonathan good morning to you all. President trump and vice President Joe Biden. In georgia, Vice President biden taking a slender nominal read in that race nominal lead in that race. From london and new york this morning, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. We count you down to a payrolls report which is well off the radar this morning. Here is the price action in the equity market. Several days of gains into friday. The losses, down 0. 7 percent on the s p 500. Dollar weaker, euro from her. What a rally in the bond market. Tuesday night into wednesday morning, a pretty 1 seemingly on the 10 year yield, and then the rally kicks in. Yields settle down at 77 basis points on the 10 year. Tom it was almost a four standard deviation move from plus two down to minus two. That is a lot of movement. You wonder who has made the money here, and who has lost money as well. This is going to be a timely interview, and then it got more timely last night. Lara brown is with us. Her study at the graduate school of political management at onrge washington is president ial discourse. ,he book describes it all amateur hour. Youve got to be kidding me. Were you taking notes during the . Residents press conference speech, which was just full of falsehoods and lies , was so frustrating and disheartening for anyone who believes in the sacredness of my vote in the process of democracy. To watch aning to me president from the white house claiming that there was widespread fraud. Tom i look at the history of this, and i am going to go to late andrew jackson, where he really fell apart. I dont know if we are going to get three volumes on trump, but is it a continuum . Has there been a deterioration . Or is it just a moment for this unique president . Dr. Brown one of the things i argue in my book, the more we elect individuals who have no relationship to politics or knowledge of our legal system, then what you are going to see is people who have no internal commitment to upholding the norms of democratic politics. What that means is for them, everything is fair game, and there is no such thing as a below the belt hit. I think that is what we are seeing. We have seen it progressively over the last 30 years, 40 years, but i dont think that anything compares to this moment and what we have seen with President Trump. Lisa this country does have a long history of nonpoliticians becoming president , whether it is Ronald Reagan or some of the Founding Fathers who had other disciplines as well. That is the reason why donald trump has the support he has. Is thereis argument, any validity in his complaints that could be mixed in with other things that you take issue with . Dr. Brown let me take issue first with your question. That is actually not accurate. Every president before donald trump has had some level of political experience or a law degree. Or they had military experience. It is true that every single one of our president s before had some level of governmental military or legal service. , who has really had no Elective Office experience. Is certainly in our system, anyone who has legitimate, valid claims can bring those in a court, and the court can decide whether or not they have standing, and those claims should be remedied. What we have seen so far is none of that. We have seen baseless allegations that are not even followed alongside lawsuits. What we have is a rhetorical action on behalf of the president , which really amounts to demagoguery. Jonathan you make an interesting argument that i would like to explore just for a moment. Are you saying that anyone who doesnt have political or legal experience should exclude them from becoming the president . I am saying is you would not fly a plane if you have never been a pilot. One of the things that is important to realize is that you inuldnt learn to drive politics at the level of the presidency. Sake, start ats city council. Start at the mayoral office. Jonathan but thats not for you to say, is it . That is for the people to vote. If you want to become a pilot, you have to get a license. But to become the president of the United States, you need to be born in america and it is for the people to vote for you. Lara your absolute right, but in politics, it is the only profession in which we think no experience is good experience. I thing that has had a detrimental effect on our system over time because it is just a myth that the framers were farmers. They were not. Thomas jefferson had the most Elective Office experience of any president who has ever served prior to his term in office. Jonathan we appreciate your perspective this morning. Thank you. Professor, associate and director of the school of political management at the George Washington university. Not the only one making that argument. Nicholss alludes to tom and his incredibly important book, the death of expertise. If you get a biden presidency, if you get the pushback and the reformation of the Trump Movement off of a given president ial loss, you are going to see a raging debate about expertise within the beltway. Jonathan coming up on this program, the expertise of Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief u. S. Economist, with a payroll report around the corner. The counting continues in the United States of america. Our coverage does as well. This is bloomberg. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning tea while. I know many of you have not slept over the last several days. For our audience worldwide, we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. A 60 minutes, you will have payrolls report. I have no idea how long you will look at those numbers, but we will do it for you right here. , 1. 1783. R higher yields creep up a little bit. What a rally we have seen on the 10 year to 0. 77 31 . In equities, down 28 points on the s p. We shave about 0. 8 off of the s p 500. Tuesday. N monday, wednesday, thursday with a different flavor. Hugeech coming back in a lay following that election. Cure,ou sound like the they are. Whatever that song was years ago. Lets not forget gold, up 50 over the last number of days in this rally. We need an update. Emily wilkins is of the biden camp in wellington in wilmington, delaware. Emily i think the Biden Campaign has to be feeling pretty good right now. The last three days, they have been having the optimistic and positive message, but have also urged patients, urged americans to wait, to remain calm. But all of that weighting might finally pay off today if we see the results from pennsylvania, georgia, nevada, or more Networks Call for arizona. Lisa given the fact that we are likely to get calls for recounts, legal challenges, etc. , what is the threshold for joe biden to get on stage and declare victory . Emily that is a wonderful question. We have already seen some of thrown out. Ts be they have not brought forward a lot of evidence that there is fraud in the election. That could certainly change. We could wind up having a big lawsuit. One of the things to look for is how many of these wind up getting called today. Called forts nevada him, pennsylvania called for him, he is over 270. More states that contribute to pushing biden over the line, the harder it is going to be for the trump team to pose actual, credible legal challenges in all of these states. Jonathan i think it is really important to keep saying they are narrow paths for a whole range of outcomes, including Mitch Mcconnell losing his majority in the senate. I want you to speak to that because a lot of our listeners right now in this market are thinking about the prospect of maybe a blue wave in some way could still be on the cards. Theres a narrative right now of divided government, and that is what the market has been trading on over the last two days. Can you talk to that . What is going on in the senate with the voting, especially in georgia . Emily i might not call it a blue wave. Maybe a blue mist might be a good one for it. At this point, weve got four races that are left uncalled. The ones in alaska and North Carolina are trending towards republicans. That brings us to the two in georgia. Can pull off both runoffs, we will go into the next congress with a 5050 tie in the senate. If biden has the white house, that means the democrats have the upper hand come but that is incredibly slight because that means they cant lose a single senator. So that ambitious episode we saw , the major climate bill, all of that is going to probably have to be scaled back a little bit if we are looking at a Biden Administration, and right now, the best Case Scenario is a 5050 control of the senate. Tom emily wilkins, thank you so much, in delaware with the former Vice President. We will see an eventful friday. Its friday im in love, the song we were talking about earlier. Jonathan great song. Lisa got it in my head. Yesterday,d meeting where we focused . This labor economy, how can we be focused given the politics . Ellens and her of morgan Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley is focused. Is the Unemployment Rate of this . Ation under 8 but it hasllen no, the longest history. Tom what is our Unemployment Rate . Ellen there are statistical errors that put that 7. 9 that is currently on the books as really 11. 2 roughly. Then youve got underemployment, which is higher than that. Anyone that would like a job that doesnt even look right now, and there are a lot of those given the issues out there with covid, some businesses shutting back down after having opened up, nervously eyeing what is going on in europe. That underemployment rate could rise rapidly. We just dont know. We are going into what could be a winter of discontent if we all move indoors. I dont think we should be surprised if after todays report, because i do think job growth was still strong in october, if that doesnt worsen over the winter. Lisa lets talk about what youre looking for in todays jobs report to give us a sense of just how much the labor market could worsen, or at least deteriorate in parents of improvement, if we continue to see the virus spread we are seeing now in the United States. Ellen it is a good question. The number we are expecting is quite a bit above consensus. Consensus around 600,000. We are looking for 900,000. That is a big number. It is still a lot slower than where we were. It is a lot slower than the three month moving average. But we are continuing to bring jobs back to the labor market. We would like for it to be at a quicker pace, and of course, you would expect that pace to slow down quite materially over the winter, especially if more of the Service Sector is having to retrace some of the opening. You can fall into the area of 300,000 or lower, depending on how bad the winter might get. That could be enough to send the under limit rate higher after tracking lower this whole time after reopening. you and the Team Jonathan you and the team made a massive call that the u. S. Economy would climb back quickly. What i here in the last couple of minutes, just a few cracks that maybe the right wing of that v starts to flatten out. Is that fair . Ellen i think that is fair when you think about the risks to the economy. Why has the fed not shifted their views despite the long string of upside surprises in the data . Because covid is still be number one risk, the significant risk to the economy. It is not going to matter what the data looks like going into the winter. It is not going to matter how much more stimulus the Congress Puts in. It is all about covid, and until we get out from under that cloud , it is not really going to change monetary policy. One reason why we have had that very strong vshaped coming out of lockdown versus a much more sluggish recovery in the labor market, if you look at the labor market, it certainly doesnt look like a v. That is because the less laborintensive parts of the economy are what is driving gdp. For instance, the goods sector moved back to the precovid levels as early as june. But the more laborintensive parts, the Service Sector makes up a greater share of the labor market. The labor Market Recovery is going to be a lot more lagged than gdp. Told that to have vshaped story, but that doesnt matter. What is going on with Labor Force Participation rates, especially of women, of Unemployment Rates, of minorities, that is what matters. Om we will continue pennsylvania shows a little bit of early return of votes here before the 8 00 hour. The gap has been narrowed from 18,229, all 180 two points. Mr. Biden behind by 18,047, so it is a little bit in his direction, but just a little bit of a tweak of what we see in pennsylvania. Much more according to our Kevin Cirilli to come. What is our wage doing . I really am fascinated by the two americas and the partition of wages. Were wages initially being driven higher by those returning to work in getting hazard pay. Occur forat had to some of those lower wage Service Sector areas of the economy to get greater pay. Youve got to do it under duress. Not under duress, but hazard pay in order to compensate you for taking the risk of going back to work in this environment. That has shifted wages higher on a yearoveryear basis than they have been the entire prior 10 year recovery. The question is how sticky is that. If things normalize after a vaccine, does that hazard pay tock, or do employers start graduate that back downward . I think it is going to be very difficult for employers to take back that hazard pay. I think it will be entrenched by then. I think it will pressure labor costs in the Service Sector. That is something that remains to be seen, and summing that Equity Investors will have to weigh. Jonathan ellen, wonderful as always. Ellen zentner of Morgan Stanley. Just a few cracks in the outlook. The latest news from earlier this morning in georgia, vice President Joe Biden taking a very small nominal lead. He has some momentum there. He has moment to men pennsylvania, though he still is lagging behind the president. The accounting does continue. Right now in this market, about 50 minutes away from payrolls in america, hardly anybody is paying attention to it. 100,000 cases covid in america. We can when we get past this phase, how quickly do we get back to covid and looking at the outlook for a vaccine . Tom instantaneously. The vaccine is a separate story, but this labor economy and the mysteries we just heard from Ellen Zentner, that is not going to go away. It is apparent right now. I would go back again to john two americas,f and the new two americas to me is extraordinary. I am sure you see it as well in london, the partition of those not prospering, but surviving comfortably in this pandemic really aggrieved. I have never seen anything like it. Jonathan lets get to this price action. This friday morning, we look a little bit some thing like this in the equity market. On the s p 500, we rollover on the s p. We are negative after four Straight Days of gains. Here is one. I feel so privileged to be in this position because my audience is so much better at this than me. Mondays rally didnt fade. Tuesday came the biden trade. Wednesday, big tech had it made. Its friday, im in love. [laughter] you skipped thursday, but thank you. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden has overtaken President Trump in the state of georgia. The latest tally of votes gives the democrat a slight lead. Biden has also cut into the president s advantage in pennsylvania, getting closer to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election. President trump says the election is being stolen from him, but has offered no evidence to back that up. His campaign promised to File Lawsuits in several battleground states. President trumps special treatment on twitter would end in january if he is not reelected. Twitter has often left up tweets from the president that violate its policies, although it adds a warning. If donald trump were no longer president , his tweets could be removed entirely if they include hate speech or false information. U. S. Has become the first country to have 100,000 new coronavirus cases in just one day, according to data from John Hopkins University in bloomberg. Indiana, ohio, michigan, and illinois were among states reporting record infections yesterday. Chinas president xi jinping is signaling a different sort of longterm vision for the countrys economy. Xi calls for an expansion of less than 5 a year, well whats your well below the trend of the last 30 years. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. It is going to take time. We anticipate having the count done 10 days after the election. That is when we are done because there are ballots still coming in. There are provisionals that need to be verified. We cant know how long the process will take. Jonathan Voting System implementation manager for georgia. Tight races in georgia, in nevada. Tightening races in pennsylvania and arizona as well. We will talk about that in just a moment. From london and new york, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Away from the payrolls report in america this friday. This is the price action going into that number. We look a Little Something like this. Down 30 on the s p, negative about 0. 9 . For day winning streak on the s p. Big week of gains on the cards, even with those losses. In the bond market, just a bit softer. Yields a bit higher. Other basis point to 0. 7748 . Moment,he story of the for anyone in Foreign Exchange, the belief is if you can get a biden white house, you flush through some real dollar weakness into this Foreign Exchange market, and of cap essay, over the last several days, that is precisely what has happened. Acceleration of that trend has been substantial. I would also note really specific pacific rim strength as well. What we like to do is speak to experts. We just talked to laura brown of George Washington about the need for experience. On election law come out of and now theyale, dean of the university of Wisconsin Law school, they know Daniel Tokaji joins us now. What does election law and a recount look like . Daniel it looks like a lot of Different Things in a lot of states, where several states are still in play. But the bottom line is that while there have been a number bysmall lawsuits brought trump and the Trump Campaign allies, i dont think any of them are going to decide this election, and that is really good news for our democracy. It is dubiousn whether several these lawsuits have any merit to them, but people are entitled to file cases if they believe there has been a violation of election law. In the cases that have been brought so far, at looks to me like all of them are small cases affecting a small number of toes, and highly unlikely make any difference in the end. Lower on960, the chicago mayor daley in illinois, the reality is the real narrowness was hawaii. I believe it was 115 votes in favor of jfk. How narrow is narrow for pros like you . Daniel it really depends upon the size of the state and how many ballots can legitimately be called into question. Ago were had 20 years really narrow elections decided by hundreds of votes in the critical state of florida. It doesnt look at this moment like any of the states are going to come down to that margin where it is going to be pivotal. It is possible arizona could wind up being super close, for example. It is possible pennsylvania could wind up in that territory, though on the trajectory biden is on, it looks like he is likely to pull ahead. I dont think we are going to see an election coming down to the hundreds of votes where these very small lawsuits the Trump Campaign has brought are being supported and are looking to make a difference. Lisa can we zoom out a little bit . There is a question overall as to whether this election was fair in a voting inclusion type of way, whether the absentee ballots were done and conducted in a good manner. Long lines reported in certain municipalities were prohibitive to certain people voting. What is your overall take on how well the nation did this time around, with voter inclusion and freedom of speech . Daniel i am so glad to hear that question because it is a really important one. It is really easy to get lost in the details and miss the big picture. To me, the big picture is this election has really gone incredibly well, despite the enormously challenging circumstances that election officials, poll workers, and voters have been operating under. That got five states havent been called because they are really close, and yet the Serious Problems that we have encountered in this election quite sane from an election perspective. Compare this to florida 20 years ago, or ohio 16 years ago. Those were the pivotal states in those years, and both of them were just a complete mess from an Election Administration perspective. The fact that we are really just seeing small problems in this election is testament to the enormous improvements in our Election Administration infrastructure over the last 16, 20 years. Lisa that said, there is a question about the Postal Service and their role, the number of cases where they had to disclose they did not track possibly thousands of votes, and when they actually got delivered in pennsylvania. Does that concern you, the increasing role of mail if this serves as a template for future elections . Daniel i think there are some risks with mail voting. In true, male voting is reliable, but there are in every election in number of people who try to vote by mail, where at some point they or their votes leak out of the pipeline. Whether it is their initial request for an absentee ballot, there absentee ballot isnt received, there are some technical problems like socalled naked ballots or the failure to return them on time. There are some leaks in the absentee ballot pipeline, and the coastal system and if the postal system isnt reliable, those are going to be greater. So that is concerning. I would pick that apart a little bit from our Election Administration system that are actually running elections, but the postal system doesnt work well when we are increasingly relying on voting. We are going to have a greater number of people who dont wind up having their votes counted. Fortunately in this election, despite these problems, those numbers still seem to be reasonably small, as far as we can tell, and probably not likely to affect the result. Jonathan daniel, great to catch up with you. Tokaji there. Republican senator to me senator toomey saying the president s allegations are not substantiated. A little bit more distance, some daylight from some republican senators coming through with their president. Tom also, we have 54,000 votes outstanding in philadelphia. I just interpolated that. Biden needs 58 of those votes to take the lead in pennsylvania. Up on thisoming program, michael holland, holland co. Chairman. This is bloomberg. Patience is the real key here. The market wants to see something that is orderly. The biggest Downside Risk is that we get divided government and gridlock. The longer the uncertainty, the more the stimulus talk is going to be delayed, people are going to be worried. The economy is slowing to noticeably below the consensus expectation. It is going to get worse before it gets better. A lot of regions may see doubledips. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom