Over the next couple of days and weeks. Am my first calculation of fivestate differential this of 143 was 150 3000 out 153,000 out of 143 million votes. You wonder if we would have a five state recount. Im kidding. That wouldnt occur. Battle was in hawaii. The differential between john f. 1960 between john f. Kennedy and Richard Nixon was all of 115 votes. There was a recount in hawaii, and there was a swing from nixon to kennedy in 1960. You really wonder, is that what we have in store as we stagger to december . On georgia, just to add a bit of color, i was very focused on georgia over the last , becausenth and a half it is an important state. I believe it is a state that has only voted three times for a democratic president. If those times before it does go to a democratic president , two of those were when jimmyn 1990s carter was on the ballot, and in President Trump won the state by a 5 difference. Anwould even be symbolically important point if it is a razor thin majority. We need to wait and see, but that is what it is pointing to at the moment. Lets get to first word news with three. Ritika joe biden is tightening his hold on the race for the white house, now taking the lead in georgia, also leading in the vada, and is catching up to President Trump in in nevada, and is catching up to President Trump in pennsylvania. He said he has no doubt that once the vote counting is over he will be the winner. Filedent Trumps Campaign promised lawsuits in four swing states. He says the election is being stolen from him despite no evidence of widespread illegal voting. Federal reserve chair Jerome Powell has opened the door to a possible shift in the Central Bank Bond purchases. He told reporters that more fiscal and monetary support is needed because rising Coronavirus Infections threaten the economy. Policymakers agree to maintain bond buying at the current rate. Economists expect the u. S. Governments they does jobs report will reflect a slowdown in the labor market. The median estimate in the Bloomberg Survey says the economy created 593 thousand jobs last month, down from 661,000 back in september. Jobs report is out at 8 30 a. M. New york time. There has been a Record Number of new coronavirus cases. Thanrities report more 58,000 new infections, and the france started a second lockdown last week. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i read. Countries, this is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. The data. It has been two days up i was going to say two weeks up, wrong. Two days up, with strong correlations yesterday, particularly an explosive dollar. It is a statement on american unemployment with a lot of people unemployed in america. One statistic i saw was 12 million jobs have been lost over the recent months. Futures take a pause. The vix moves back almost two points, 29 point 41. Francine, i will keep it short. 29. 41. Francine, i will keep it short. It francine if you look at what we have been seeing, the global stocks rally seems to be stolen, european equities are dropping, technology is down. The dollar is pretty much study on the twoweek low, and i am seeing some movement in emerging markets as people feel more confident about a risk on move. Treasuries, just a bit more context, little change after fed officials kept near kept Interest Rates near zero. If we have a second wave, how will that impact hiring and fed projections and u. S. Jobs . Tom right now i think the best thing to do, and particularly after the moment last night of the president speaking at the white house, let us listen to the two candidates. Feeliden we continue to very good about where things stand. We have no doubt that when the count is finished, senator harris and i will be declared the winners. So i ask everyone to stay calm. All the people to stay calm. The process is working. The count is being completed. We will know very soon. Pres. Trump a lot of litigation because we have so much evidence, so much proof. It is going to end up perhaps at the highest court in the land. We will see. As you know, i have claimed certain states, he is claiming states, but ultimately i feel the judges are going to have to rule. Tom the two candidates are as exhausted as everyone else here. Onalculated we are 56 hours from what wouldve been concession and victory speeches on tuesday. Amy pope joins us. We are talking to each other way, way too often in the recent days. What i really want to know is when these two parties go in the talk tom, to statelevel judges, the president talked about we are going to go to the Supreme Court. Before that, they have got to go maybe into a federal courtroom or maybe a state court room. Who is actually at those tables . This is not. Mason. What actually happens in those courtroom . Instance irst amy in the first instance they have to present evidence of wrongdoing, and most of what the president is alleging as fraud is not fraud at all, and that is why you are seeing so many cases get tossed out so quickly. The claim that you cannot count the votes for example after election day, there is no basis in law for that. Some of their claims about access to the voting booth or observation, all of these things a court is going to take a good look at it, but they are not the deciders of the election, they are just making sure that people have an opportunity to vote, it is being done fairly, and there is no fraud. So far the president s claims are just not standing up. When you look at some of the recounts, we will see a couple of states having to it is aonly because very razor thin majority in certain cases. Is that correct, or could we actually see no recount . See i think we will likely a recount in a place like georgia, where it looks like we are talking about a very, very small difference in votes. But if we are talking about thousands or tens of thousands of votes, then it is much less likely. The president has claimed he wants to seek a recount in the midwest, for example, but the impact of that is not really clear. If youre talking about several hundred votes, as you go back to bush v gore, youre talking thet vote differences in hundreds. This is not that so far. What is the most surprising thing you have seen over the last 24 hours . President trump claiming that this is almost unlawful in havein cases will this an impact on his voters . How much of the democratic process does his words actually change the way people feel their vote is being counted . Amy in the first instance, lets be clear, it is not unlawful to vote against President Trump. That is democracy in action. Why the president insists on going down this path is really puzzling, even from a Strategic Point of view. In some ways he is doing a credible he well. The race was not a landslide for Vice President biden and senator harris. He is still very much in play in key states, and it is a puzzling strategy. Wife oh meant anxiety and civil unrest when you are actually doing relatively well. It suggests to me that he thinks he wont win. Tom i should point out that mr. Biden has a Record Number in the popular vote, and i believe mr. Trumps 69 million is the second most votes ever seen in a president ial election. To your good point there on the tension of how the republicans are doing versus the democrats great, but what he really comes from is a distrust of elites within the system. It is those guys at a given Convention Center who we really dont trust. What is the solution for the elites to straighten out our voting process so there is a Greater Trust among democrats and among republicans . Of the keyk one issues here is campaignfinance reform. There is so much money going into fund these campaigns, money coming from outside the jurisdictions. That causes a lot of frustration and anxiety and distrust in the system. There are not a lot of limits on how people can fund money. There are limits on individual contributions, but there are all sorts of loopholes around that. That means there are influences on the system and on the outcomes that are not rightly related to the people who live in that particular district. Tom amy pope, thank you so much. Too short a visit today. With chatham house, also working in Homeland Security for president obama. The linkages of economics and the finance and investment. A good time to speak to andrew sheets of Morgan Stanley on the surge we have seen in the markets even with the pause today. Let us not forget it is jobs day in america. Biden leads in georgia. This is bloomberg. Perhaps a president like joe biden who is focused on making compromise might be a very positive outcome for the country going forward. Ive been in the room with then Vice President biden, and ,ajority leader Mitch Mcconnell and they can work well together. It looks like trump and obama and like cheney before him will do governing through executive order, and until it a lot of cangs that trump has done stop doing, but will that satisfy people . No. Global markets dont seem to be too worried about that. They seem pretty comfortable with the gridlock. We have to take a step back from the election, even though that has been the central focus, and realize covid is what is driving this market and this economy. Amy the more the more unstable things are in the next six days, we get a bigger stimulus. They have made it clear that taxes are not going up and people can go buy risk assets. Francine top investors and economists discussing the contentious election between donald trump and joe biden fulltime joining us for market perspective is andrew sheets, Morgan Stanley chief cross asset strategist. If you look at what the market is thinking, it seems that it is priced in it has priced in a biden presidency very close, a razor thin margin, with a senate that his republican. What happens if there is a surprise . Andrew i think there are a few things to keep in mind. Even though this was a real roller coaster of an election night, i think we have landed on a scenario that is most likely one of the less volatile for the markets. It means the least amount of policy change relative to some of the other scenarios that are out there, the least amount of shifts that investors would need to do to their portfolios given the less amount of policy change, and we have very high levels of expected volatility going into this event, which could then moderate. I think that is one important take away. The other important take away is that this election is also not completely finished. We still have the potential for these two Runoff Senate races in georgia, and so the balance of power in the senate, which remains very important for that policy outlook, could still hang in the balance. Let me ask you a question which i have never asked before about the u. S. , which often we talk about european countries. But given the election is so close, is the u. S. Actually governable . Andrew i think the answer is yes, but i think it is a question of the scale of policy shifts. This is why these two senate races in georgia could become so important because a senate that is 50 50, democrats and republicans, where Kamala Harris has the ability to break a tie, is a very Different Senate that is 4951 in terms of a Biden Administration ability to do things. I also think that if we end up with one of these divided government outcomes for the senate as very close but biden has taken the presidency, i think they are two key conclusions from that. One is the outlook for covid becomes more important because the ability of fiscal policy to respond to it aggressively is more restrained, so the market will be more sensitive to news on a vaccine or news on new cases. It might mean Foreign Policy is more important because that is one thing that an administration can have more leeway on and doesnt need as much, doesnt depend as much on congress. In new york. E we have had in four trading days, ab five, and almost four standard deviation maybe five, and almost four standard deviations round trip you saw the surge yesterday in japanese yen. I have never seen such an abrupt move. What does it signal . Andrew i do think it means that the market was, ironically, by reducing some of the tail scenarios around this election, there were many investors expecting a larger democratic sweep, which could have meant some really transformative policy shifts. I think many other investors were thinking back to 2016 that thought the president would be reelected, that they would be another surprise, so cutting off each of those kind of extreme events, i think you actually had markets that need to do some initial adjustment to bring them back to where they were a couple of weeks ago. We have been shopping around, but we have been shopping around in this range. I think that is the key dynamic. Francine andrew sheets stays with us. We will look at the markets, and also u. S. Jobs given what powell said. Thats not forget because this election craziness we look at electoral colleges, districts in certain states, but we cannot keep forgetting what is happening with coronavirus, the fact that there is a big second wave of infections in the u. S. That will have a significant and clear impact on hiring. Coming up in the next hour, catherine mann, citigroup chief global economist, ickes 00 a. M. In the u. S. And 11 00 a. M. In london, 6 00 a. M. In the u. S. And 11 00 a. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am ritika gupta with your Bloomberg Business flash. Is a promising sign from one of the worlds biggest automakers in the midst of the pandemic. Toyota raised its profit outlook for the fiscal year by almost threefold. Quarterly earnings and sales beat analyst estimates. Pull your to meet growing demand. Trying to reassure investors after posting a wider loss in the third quarter. The ceo says he is confident the ridehailing service will post a quarterly profit by the end of next year. He also predict that ubers Delivery Service sales have been hampered, down 18 per have been hammered, down 18 . The san franciscobased Payments Company underscore to surge in demand for stock purchases and other Financial Transactions by customers, up during the pandemic. Theyre using a payments application that lets you send money to friends, buy stocks, and store money like a back account. Like a bank account. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Francine we will have plenty more on the u. S. Election race. We understand 99 of the vote count has been happening in georgia, and it still gives joe biden with a razor thin lead. The markets are focusing on that, focusing on a number of things, including what we are seeing in terms of infections around the world. We are looking at global stocks. That rally is stalling. I dont know if i dont know if i have my board up, but maybe you do, so you can take it away. Tom there is a flatness here, even a pullback. Futures at 36, the vix reverses by a figure, 28. 85. The litmus paper there, that would be sterling advancing, 131. 26. Euro, we heard from lord oneill in the last hour making clear how these currency movers put a pinch exports or some countries off a weak dollar. Speaking of weak dollar, yen 100 103. 39 is really struck neri. 107. 56. , withg up, ian bremmer david westin, balance of power. This is bloomberg. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. Tom election 2020. Good morning, everybody. Bloomberg surveillance. As we continue, well into tuesday evening. If youre just joining us, georgia has gone positive for mr. Biden by ever so a bit. Under 1,000 votes but it is noted as well. There are many other stories among the five states. San francisco. He is hoping the race is decided so he can focus on chelsea tomorrow. Arizona and nevada, ive been dying to ask you about arizona. There is a presumption that mr. Trump is gaining but he literally will run out of time and votes of those counts. What happens in Maricopa County that gives the president any hope as he letterly runs out of countable votes . The ballots that remain around 300,000 statewide will be heavily skewed toward joe biden and the democratic party. What the republicans were hoping for were a big surge of inperson voting. Thats what the president told his supporters to do. They were happy with the voters that turned out on election day but when i spoke with officials that night at the Trump Campaign event they were worried about the volumes. Now they are trying to play atch up. Sources are telling me it is not narrowing by enough and they are pretty confident and even though it is fight. It was always going to be a tight race. There are the ballots still to be counted, mailin early ballots will be skewed to joe biden and what im hearing is they think joe biden will hold on. Francine how many recounts are we looking at . Recounts, did you say . Francine recounts. I dont think there is any as big a question in arizona over the validity of the ballots that are being cast. Arizona is very good at counting votes. It had this system in place since 1992. The president has been tweeting today on the legality and validity of the votes. In arizona there is high confidence on the validity of the votes that will be counted. Om do we watch vegas or do we also need to watch reno . Las vegas. It is a blue county where there is a high number of votes to be counted. It is hit hard by the coronavirus. People are still voting for President Trump based on economic platforms. What im hearing in nevada, even in cases by democrats, those are the hardest hit areas. In some cases they are voting for the president because they like what he did reopening the economy there. Thats the one to watch. Tom thank you so much. Folks, i want to make clear the distinction here is even in arizona, we have 89 of the vote counted so there is a real runway for mr. Trump. He experts say not enough. Some n smaller nevada, i would say 11,000 vote difference in nevada. Well be following that. Again, mr. Biden ahead in georgia. We continue now with andrew from Morgan Stanley. Andrew, i want to talk about the lawyers say a carefully diversified portfolio. How do you diversify with the zero bound . I think it is clearly a large challenge. Saw this in the week that preceded the election. You saw the s p selloff at 5 and 10year Interest Rates rise. Clearly that highlights the challenges the bonds have provided diversification at these levels and thats a challenge that is greater in markets like europe and japan. I think there are a few things investors are looking at. I think this is something that has drawn investors toward assets in china where the fixed income market and equity market are significantly lower than other markets and have been that way for a long period of time. There is a long history of those asset markets being correlated to others. I think that is important. I think this will cause people to look at credit as an alternative to government bonds in the sense that it provides a little bit more yield and provides low volatility assets. Tom we have a number of houses to the g a resurgence pacific rim. Do you buy it . We have been more cautious on e. M. Equities compared to other reasons. The last five days e. M. Equities have badly lagged in europe and the u. S. I do understand there is a narrative out there. It is not born out of the postelection performance. We have some concerns that the evaluations and e. M. Are less cheap than they are sometimes made out to be. Sometimes our preference in the equity markets is europe at the top and u. S. And japan in the middle and e. M. Equities at the bottom of our global allocation. Francine what about china . Does china have the space all by itself . They seem to have a handle on the crisis. If joe biden becomes president , he could be more predictable in his possible trade war with china. I do think this is a scenario that probably does reduce some the markets tail risks and uncertainty around china. We have to balance this out of a market that has done really well. Almost triple what the s p 500 has done. I think we do have a pretty optimistic view on the chinese economy. We think that strong growth we rmance will continue continue to have a view and onathan gardner continues to have a very strong view of preferring china over broader e. M. And that continues to be way were viewing those markets. Francine andrew, are we losing sight of what has happened with covid . Is a double dip session a given . I think that is an important question to focus on. I think we have had an event that has pushed covid off the front page so to speak but the cases are getting worse in the u. S. And trending up in europe. The pandemic has not gone away. If anything, it is getting more serious. I think you have potentially arrived at an election outcome where the market would care more about covid. If we had had a democratic sweep or republican sweep the market might have said i can look beyond the mizing covid cases because were going the get such aggressive policy next year that it wont matter to economy. I think were log at an outcome more likely to generate gridlock and impede policy. I think those carry far more weight to where the market will go. I think that is absolutely the right questioning. This elections one of its conclusion is that the market will be more sensitive to covid developments than other scenarios. Tom what is the mike wilson on equity markets i think the way we have been thinking about it. Mike has done a great job being clear over the next month or so. Bound. He s p has range 3550 on the upside and 3150 on the downside. We do not think were going to get a big breakout in the near term in equity markets as a result of this election but at the same time we think the downside is also pretty well capped. You have removed some uncertainty. You have a very dovish fed. As you get closer to 3,200, you will be accumulating. That is the way we try to think aboutette and go forward. Om thank you so much. Len will join surveillance later. Ritika the latest tally of votes gives the democrat a slight lead. Biden has cut into the president s advantage in pennsylvania. He is getting closer to those 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election. President trump said the election is being stolen from him but has offered no evidence to support that claim. President trumps special treatment on twitter would end in january if he is not reelected. Twitter has often left out tweets interest from the president. His tweets could be removed or ely due to hate speech false information. The u. S. Is the first country to have 100,000 coronavirus cases in just one day. That is data from Johns Hopkins university and bloomberg. Michigan and illinois were among states reporting Record Number infections yesterday. Inas president jinping is calling for their economy to expand at an average pace of 5 a year. That is well below the trend over the last few years. He addressed the top Decision Makers behind closed doors last last week. He had called for 6 postseason 5 growth. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you. It is jobs day. Coming up as i mentioned, ellen will join us with Morgan Stanley. Pretty good data. Unemployment rate down to 7. 6 . Stay with us. It is election 2020. Important results from new jersey from nevada. This is bloomberg. Francine good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance day three of the election special. Im Francine Lacqua with tom keene in new york. We try to break down the counties and look at the number of votes that have been cast and counted. We have two dives rallies. It was very clear to see for everyone. Global stocks, that rally is halting a little bit. We had a little fluctuation with the dollar here in europe. Now were on the lower side of things. The dollar is Holding Steady but i think President Trump attacking the credibility of the elections may be casting a doubt on the vote and that is maybe pricing in on the markets. Treasuries little changed after the fed kept Interest Rates near zero. Did have some comments on hiring and coronavirus. U. S. Payroll day today. Tom it is. We call it jobs day. On the data front. It is real simple. 1. 32. En quen has been stunning. 103. 26. Much stronger as well. Futures negative 28. Coming up as we continue the political analysis, kevin scheduled to be with us. Mark shenker will join us as well and Wendy Shiller from brown university. Most our best on this historical moment. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Americans want the democracy that they have. They want democracy. Im not sure this election is not showing that democracy is not working. I would say just the contrary. It shows there is a democracy working. Tom and the democracy is working. We thank kevin for his attendance yesterday. Tick by tick of the president ial election. What we saw from mr. Biden and mr. Trump yesterday. It is about the legislative ranch as well. Our chief content officer joins us now. I love the phrase, marty. The republicans flipped a seat in the senate and the democrats lipped seats in the house. Why the disappointment . Well, there were really great hopes that the biden candidacy senate ing along some seats in maine for instance where Susan Collins pulled out a victory there. So there is disappointment. It might be a little bit premature. Whats happening in georgia is interesting. There will be a runoff on those two seats as of this moment. As you know, anything is possible. Tom anything is possible and of course georgia will be critical. What this comes down to is the value of the Vice President in the senate. When Vice President harris if we have a biden win, if Vice President harris walks up to the lectern, how will this new senate be different . If it turns out to be a 5050 split in the senate, Kamala Harris will cast that tiebreaking vote. Essentially it means the democrats have taken the senate. The whole issue of what kind of agenda can joe biden pursue will change dramatically if that happens. Francine were still counting a lot of the ballots. Could some of these states still flip . What kind of razor thin majority are we talking about . What are the states that you think were calling a little bit too quickly . I think the elephant in the country is arizona. As you know, fox news now famously or perhaps infamously called that very early tuesday night. A. P. Followed early in the Morning Hours later. The trump administration, the Trump Campaign was very upset that was called and in fact no other organizations have who are tracking this race have called that race. So it is still in play. There will be more votes tabulated today. I think it is still an issue of whether arizona has in fact gone to biden. I had rather be in joe bidens place in arizona than donald trumps, but it is still up in the air. Francine marty, republicans have a legal fight to stop counts. A lot of these have been thrown out. Where are the ones that actually have not been thrown out . Well, there is this case before the Supreme Court that was decided 44 which basically tabled it involving the separation of certain ballots in pennsylvania. Even if the Supreme Court were to take that one on, it only involves a couple 10 or tens of thousands of votes rather than hundreds of thousands of votes so it really wouldnt have much of an impact and it looks like joe biden is headed to overtake donald trutch in pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is ground zero for this legal battle in my opinion and that will play out over the next days and weeks. Tom is the team in washington yet seeing a republican distancing from the president . Not really. I think like we all are, were waiting to see just where this election stands before positioning themselves. I think the real person we should be looking at is Mitch Mcconnell. He has a relationship with joe biden. What kind of relationship will he try to develop . I believe joe biden is going to have a honeymoon if he does become president and that he has a working relationship with Mitch Mcconnell that can actually produce results in the first 100 days. Tom just really, really interesting. One final question if i could, marty. What are you going to look for this morning besides eight hours sleep . Im not getting those hours, tom. Were going to get a big vote dump in nevada. I would look at nevada this morning and if any of the monitors of this race call georgia, call pennsylvania and take joe biden over the top. Francine marty, we have the president saying some of the vote counting is illegitimate but we dont have foundation for that. And we have his son asking people to go to total war because of this election. How uncomfortable is the Republican Party right now . You know, i mentioned Mitch Mcconnell earlier. I think he is kind of the critical figure here. If the polls show that joe biden has won the electoral vote, i permanently think it is incumbent upon the republicans to stand up and acknowledge that fact and Mitch Mcconnell is going to be the person who we need to see do that which i think will lower the temperature around the country. Tom thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. Leadership in washington through this historic week. I do want to make one point which has come up a bit but maybe less of the 146 million votes that we have seen. The popular vote, it is extraordinary to see the lurality that mr. Biden has. What. 8 greater than Hillary Clinton did a few years ago. Take. 8 and divide it by 2. 1 and you get a huge popular vote pickup by mr. Biden over what was seen from the democrats in 2016. It is jobs day. It is a pressured america on so many fronts. An important timely interview. Katherine mann will join us from citigroup. Look for nevada results. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning. Passfriday, 56 Hours Tuesday evening victory speeches, will we have a new president . Calm andn requests patient. Team trump wants any vote that came in after election date not be counted. Registrars want to not count fast and make sure we are being accurate. Some judges they show us fraud evidence. President trump says they are trying to steal the election. Anh this pandemic, it is american jobs date where 12 million jobs are gone. Good morning, everyone. From london, it is still tuesday evening as our colleague says. Francine, remarkable to see the fracture of this election and how it is across all of the