And tom keene. A postdebate bloomberg surveillance. We welcome all of you on bloomberg television, Bloomberg Radio across this nation after an extra ordinary evening observed by all last night. We have good analysis through forward in the view towards october 15 and the second debate. I know we are going to try to focus on where we are in economics, finance, investment and that. Ive just got to go to your observation of seeing the debate from london. Was london engaged in that of a last night in the debate last night . Jonathan it was the talk of breakfast this morning, i can tell you. I was watching it on my phone and the waitress came over and discussed what she thought as well. I think many were surprised come about at the same time, what else did you expect when you were going to put these two people in the same room on the same stage . Tom you are absolutely dead on. When they started in last night with Chris Wallace, at times almost debating with the president , to see what they did last night right from the getgo, to me it was widely expected. But then the question is now, what forward . I know cbs has a poll out right now on the details, but what do you see forward . Jonathan from the market perspective, there was lisa from the market perspective, there was a little bit of a hope of a more orderly election season then people perhaps feared. You saw some people trying to position for perhaps an upside surprise of an election that is actually normal. In that sense, it was shattered last night. The sense of a contested election, of a prolonged, protracted battle over chads or whatever else over chads or the mailin ballots, that was simply confirmed by what we saw last night. That is bleeding into the market mood today. Tom lets listen to some of those moments last night in cleveland. Take a look at what hes actually done. Hes done very little. His trade deals are the same way. He talks about these great trade deals. He talks about the art of the deal. China has perfected the art of the steal. We have the highest trade deficit with mexico. Pres. Trump china ate your lunch, joe. Tom just a vignette into what we saw last night. Jon ferro, the backandforth here, and i really want to drive forward as we have all morning to october 15. Steve scully of cspan in a town hall meeting. What will you try to observe in a second debate, as a gentleman from england . Jonathan how about a better question, what do i hope to observe . . I hope to observe a conversation about policy. There were soundbites on china. Was the policy . When you lose jobs, what is the policy . When the labor market is still in pain through 2020 one, what is the policy to offset that pain . Its got to be about policy, and unfortunately, last night we didnt get much of a conversation on that. Tom good morning on radio across this nation. I look at one final observation before we get to mr. Morris. So much of this seems to be at the margin of garnering the suburban voter. Who succeeded, in your opinion, last night . Lisa ive been reading the polls. Some say that biden had a little bit of an edge with women in particular. I am not going to say that with any conviction because i will wait for the polls to come out and i will be sandblasted on every level. I will say that neither of them seems to engage voters enough to bring more people to the polls, to bring more people to the voting booth then they would have otherwise. I think that is the key question and challenge for them both. Tom that is the challenge, including for the labor economy, with the report tomorrow and jobs day friday. With us now is daniel morris, bnp paribas investment strategist. What is the theme now for the economy . Daniel what you always look to see for the labor market, especially when you have shocks like you have now, is really the flexibility. With that flex ability can come quite a bit of suffering, but when you have some any jobs being lost in an Unemployment Rate that we have right now, and clearly very difficult for people, when at the same time you dont have the sustained increase in unappointed benefits the way you have in europe, the advantage of that is we realize the world is different and is going to be different permanently, so the economy needs to change to reflect that. The advantage of the u. S. System is it is going to do that relatively quickly, relatively efficiently, and reorient itself to whatever that new model turned out to be. I think that is what you see in the u. S. , in contrast to europe, where it is a much more soft approach. Jonathan lets talk about the potential for policy and the outcome for this election. Everyone is doing the same thing, going through the same permutations and trying to work out what it means for financial markets. What are the team at bnp paribas doing ahead of this election . Daniel the first point is that our perspective is, to some degree, irrespective of the outcome that should be positive for risk assets and supported for equities and credit. We really dont see a scenario other than a contested election, but even that will be limited in time if we go back to what did happen in 2000. You had the decision after five weeks. Markets continued to selloff, but by the end of the year, they had rebased. If we have any kind of upset this time, there will be a decision. We will have a president. At that point, we do think the outlook for the economy overall is positive. You are recovering from a recession. The unappointed rate is going to continue to fall on the margin. The news is going to get better, and that is really what equity markets focus on. Lisa can you square your more positive outlook for markets and the economy with the layoffs that jon was laying off, 30,000 expected from the airline industry, 28,000 that disney . Is this all priced in . Daniel i would say it probably is priced in, and it is reallocation as opposed to permanent destruction. Admittedly, not everyone is going to be working in retail and the same way they were before. Probably also in the airline space. It is going to take time for the new opportunities to present themselves, but it does come back to the idea of Creative Destruction. We do have to go through this destructive phase to get to whatever is on the others. That is where government needs to step in and provide a cushion to get over that period, and where the u. S. Is arguably less generous than it should be. If we think about all of the debt being incurred by governments globally to try to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and the effects of the lockdowns, ultimately you need Economic Growth generate the income to do that. So it is ultimately kind of the only model you see able to achieve that, but it can be quite tumultuous in the meantime. Jonathan i just wonder, from your perspective, the countries, the economies that embrace Creative Destruction relatively more like the United Kingdom is saying it will be when the coming months, do you think they are the economies that will have that little bit more dynamism in the recovery, and maybe leave the recovery in the years to come . Daniel we do. If you think about your perspective on the longterm trend growth of the u. S. Versus Continental Europe prior to the pandemic, you always have the assumption that the u. S. Is higher, and flex ability of the labor market is one reason for that. But whatever that cap was before the pandemic, it is probably wider now than before because the u. S. Is going to adapt, whereas what you see in europe, even more than postfinancial crisis, is this retention of the supportive policies which absolutely are good in the short term for consumer demand, but impede the necessity to adjust to what is going to be a different landscape. If you look at the Furlough Program you had in germany, that is being extended through the end of next year. You can really argue whether that is something that is good for the economy. Tom one of our themes this week, we started with john normand of jp morgan, is the correlation value of bonds now. Bounds loss to their ability to hedge other assets, including equities . Daniel absolutely. I think that is one of the Biggest Challenges for any multiasset fund right now, trying to find those hedges. Unpleasant events are always going to occur. There are always going to be negative surprises, and you cant count on bonds anymore. Without question, it is becoming more challenging. Have seen that with the reaction of gold. Real Interest Rates have risen again. It is a challenge. I think everyone is struggling with it in the way we have been struggling. It is just part of this new financial world that we are having to adjust to, and one that we all understand is going to persist for a very long time. Jonathan who needs yield curve control when this market is doing what it is doing already . Daniel morris, bnp paribas asset management, thank you very much. Overnight, i believe the new export orders are positive for the first time in quite a while that is encouraging. Tom the president was not really able to articulate it last night, but definitely his feeling is with other optimists on the economy, that there is a trend of recovery going into this mystery of the Fourth Quarter. Jonathan we hope that continues. I am not sure if you saw the note from kit juckes at socgen this morning. The first line, asia is winning. Right now, china seems to be leading the way, engineering a recovery that looks a little more sustainable. Early days, the data is still very noisy. Kent always just be the mechanical reopening, but it is there and being talked about. Lisa this is a health issue. This is a health rices. Curtain countries in asia are handling it objectively better than the west. They are coming up with better tracing, faster and more prevalent testing. These are the things necessary to keep the viral count down, to give people confidence to go out and live life. I think that maybe what we are seeing in the data. Jonathan they said that about europe only a couple of months ago. Lisa fair point. Jonathan coming up on this program, Bloomberg Contributor and former Campaign Manager ruth davis. This is bloomberg. Lisa with the first ash ritika with the first word ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Last nights first debate in cleveland quickly slipped into chaos. At one point, President Trump joe biden battled over the coronavirus. Mr. Biden he knew it was a deadly disease. What did he do . Hes on tape acknowledging he knew it. He says he did not tell us because he didnt want to panic the american people. You dont panic. He panicked. Pres. Trump we have done a great job. The only thing i havent done a good job, it is because of the fake news. They give you good press. They give me bad press. Because thats the way it is, unfortunately. Let me just tell you something. I dont care. But you could never have done the job we did. You dont have it in your blood. Mr. Biden i know how to do the job. I know how to get the job done. Pres. Trump you didnt do very well in swine fule. In swinerator flu in swine flu. Wallacemoderator chris tried keep things calm, mostly in vain. Boeing will move all assembly of to 787 dreamliners california, a blow to the seattlearea. Boeing said in july it was studying options to handle a slowdown in demand for the 787. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Jonathan upside surprise on the Economic Data in america. Lets get the data was bloombergs Michael Mckee. Daniel it is the adp michael it is the adp employment report. 749,000 jobs in the month of september, according to adp. That is more than forecast. The consensus had been for 649,000. The history of adp is that it doesnt match up very well with what we have seen from the government numbers. However, in recent months, if you want any kind of encouragement, the adp numbers have come in lower than the government figures for private sector employment. Adp, 749,000. Large businesses were the big contributor. Service providing jobs 552,000. Tom we will leave it there. Mr. Mckee getting ready for a really important interview. Stay with us in this hour. Michael mckee with the richmond fed. Right now, we consider the debate with the gentleman admiral mccain over the years. He has been wonderful as a Bloomberg Contributor. How alone was President Trump . Byi think it is pretty clear now that nobody manages donald trump but donald trump. This is a strategy that he concocted on his own. I cant imagine sitting around air force one, flying back from an event, saying i think you ought to be way over the top. I think you want to interrupt Chris Wallace and Vice President biden as much as you possibly can. That is really going to convince those women, suburban voters that you lost in 20 to come to the fold. I think this was all concocted by donald trump, and i think he is going to pay a price for that. Tom if a switch goes off, you move to the middle. Did the switch go off for Vice President biden last night to move from a progressive liberal left back over to the Democrat Party middle . Rick i think that probably went off during the primaries. It was pretty clear that part of his job less night was to defend himself from the same attacks he got from the liberal left, but this time coming from a conservative republican president. Trump tried to hold him accountable for the liberal left, and he was having nothing to do with it. If there was a clear moment in this debate, it is exactly what you bring up, that joe biden positioned himself in the center of his party, basically in the center of American Public thinking, and was able to defend that pretty well. Lisa you said that President Trump may pay a price for coming hot. Hop coming in too how is he going to pay a price . Rick he is down in nearly every battleground state now. He is down nationally. There are states that arent even battlegrounds that are now in play. Hes even behind in arizona. So he had to make up ground last night. We are now within about a month of elections. A Million People have already voted, and he is running out of time. Last night was an opportunity to get back in the race, and there was nothing i saw that but in their. That put him there. Jonathan on this whole debate about owning the center, do you think the republicans of energized the left to such a degree now because of the Supreme Court that it has enabled former vp to be a little bolder about owning the middle ground . Ick sam i think rick think this is who biden is. It didnt help him in the early primary states, but he stuck to it. Now he is going to get the benefit of that. Thehe old days, you ran to right of the Republican Party, get the nomination, and then run in the center. Opposite for the democratic party. And dealsew head nods with Bernie Sanders and elizabeth warren, but stuck to his centrist positions that hes held most of his life, and that is now paying dividends for him. Jonathan debates october 15 and 22. If you were still on the campaign trail, but would you be saying to the president . And who is left undecided ahead of november 3 . Rick i think the whole audience for this debate is the same audience the president needs to be talking to. The disaffected republicans who voted for him in 2016, that enabled him to build a winning coalition, even by the slimmest margin, and to abandon him in 2018 and who abandoned him in 2018 and brought a huge Democratic Victory in the house of representatives. He needs them back. By and large, they are suburban women. I think hes got a message he can portray to them come about last night lacked any cohesion. Four years ago, he could talk about make america great. We heard nothing like that is a core message last night. I think hes got to start taking the debates seriously. He cant just fake it, which is most of what he did last night. Hes got to get into debate prep and start focusing his message both on biden and all his own central core, what am i going to do the next four years for you. Lisa lets say you had the thankless job of moderating the next debate. [laughter] nonow thank you, thank you. Lisa what would you do to try to bring more order to the discussion . Rick i think you have got to set the tone very early. The moderators that tend to have a good debate are the ones who really set the rules upfront and require everybody to adhere to the. I think Chris Wallace lost that debate in the first question. The contestants didnt even adhere to the question they asked. They got off track. He didnt pull the back soon enough. I think if he had stayed on the beat and tried to keep these two consistence these two contestants in message, he would have been better off. Tom what do the republicans do after a one term trump or a two term trump . What do you republicans do . Rick i think a lot of that matters, whether it is a one term or two term trump. It is really questionable in my mind as to what is the Republican Party after this. One of the things that its going to be a price to be paid is the comments that donald trump made last night, or maybe the comments he didnt make about White Supremacy and some of the more radical elements of that movement. By not actually actively going out and putting that down and disavowing them, he has now created a new story that is going to be attached to republicans, not just his campaign, but senate republicans, house republicans, governors, legislative candidates. Theres got to be a reckoning within the party as to who we are, what we stand for. We have lost our physical response ability messaging. We are all our fiscal responsibility messaging. We are all over the map. These are rock bed republican views that are now out of a junkball. Maybe the democrats will adhere to some of them. Jonathan rick, great to catch up. Got to get some bricking news in the last 10 minutes or so. It comes from continental think auto parts. It comes from continental. Think auto parts, tires in europe. They could be cutting 30,000 jobs. They are restructuring, and that could lead to layoffs. This after the Walt Disney Company slashing 28,000 jobs. Change ofking 10 and the workforce, just like that. Tom thats what you do, folks. You go to the terminal, it is usually 3 or 4 . Jonathan coming up, a conversation with thomas barkin, Federal Reserve president of richmond, live on bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning to all. For audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. With equity futures bouncing off the lows, almost getting back to positive territory, down one third of 1 . Eurodollar 1. 1715. In the bond market we do nothing. Every single guest trying to answer one question. What an earth you do when a debate goes Something Like this . President trump i paid millions of dollars in taxes, millions of dollars in income tax. There was a story in one of the papers that i paid 38 million one year. I paid 27 million. En show us your tax returns. Jonathan everyone trying to answer the question, the answer is no idea because of the aotinaturef how the debate went. I do not think a Single Market participant knows what to do with that. Tom the Vice President debate, not all that important, but coming up. Forward, and we do it on the backdrop of an economy moon shot and moonshot up your now there is no other way to put it into the Fourth Quarter, the immense mystery of the american economy. Jonathan we turn the attention, unlike the debates, to policy, and we turn to bloombergs Michael Mckee for more. Michael we are joined by thomas barkin, president of the Federal Reserve bank of richmond. We welcome you to Bloomberg Radio and television worldwide. I will tell you i will not talk over you or insult you this morning. That ishe questions sometimes asked in washington, but always on wall street is has the economy started to slow in the later half of the summer going into the fall. What do you see . Pres. Barkin the economy took a deep dive and did come back quickly. You would expect to see that recovery be more gradual. Where i see the real challenge is getting the last 5 of americans back to the workforce. That is where i have my focus. Michael is that going to happen . What are Business Leaders telling you about their plans to invest and spend more money . Pres. Barkin there is a lot of uncertainty starting with the virus and also with the demand picture here. In that context, i think companies are streamlining, taking the last 5 or 10 and funding those efficiencies. Im starting to hear in the last month or so some amount of pivoting to tomorrow. What i mean is we will get this behind us. Lets talk about where we go from here. I think it is streamlined, but im hopeful that as we get into next year we will see it starting to grow again. Michael do we see Significant Growth in the coming year . Pres. Barkin sure. First of all, you have a significant drop. We will grow out of that significant drop. I think you will see a strong third quarter. Even going into next year, part of the legacy of rounding over the comps we have from this years you will see Growth Numbers that look strong. I look at more level. I think the question will be what we look like yearoveryear. I still think by the end of the Fourth Quarter this year we will still be down yearoveryear and it will be hard to get back to where we worked until the end of next year. Michael is your forecast assuming we get a stimulus package . What happens if we do not . Pres. Barkin i do not try to assume anything in terms of what happens in washington one way or the other. They are talking and we will let them figure out whether there will be a stimulus package. If there is not one in the short term, there are people down there luck who will get less support than they otherwise need. I want to focus on some of the longterm issues or may mediumterm issues. We know a lot of people who used to be waiters are working amusement parks who now need new jobs, and their classic next job would been working at a retailer or maybe another restaurant. If those places are not hiring, how do we get them reemployed . Issues of job retraining, issues of getting grants and getting them funded. Those are the kinds of things important if were going to bring the economy all the way back. Michael another major issue, and you have one of americas biggest banks in your district, whether or not the economy can withstand come as forbearance comes to an end and we see rising business debts and increasing default for commercial real estate. How do you see that playing out . I think the stimulus we have done has been helpful to the financial industry. There are people whove been down on their luck whove gotten stimulus payments and easy credit card outstandings down. We have Small Businesses that wouldve gone under that got ppp money. Airlines might have been more significantly challenged if they had not gotten the money they had gotten. What imnock on wood, seeing from the banks is still pretty healthy. Michael what about in terms of loans and lending . There been concerns expressed in commercial real estate will have a wave of defaults. Pres. Barkin i think there will be challenges in commercial real estate, particularly on the retail side. The question is are those defaults going to overwhelm the capital system. My sense is there has been a lot of Capital Building in the last 10 years, the exposure they are compared to the capital in the system do not seem to compare. Michael if the economy is slowing, things do turn south, is there anything more the fed can do or is it up to the folks in washington . Pres. Barkin we have done a lot, and i like to think there is fiscal and monetary and you want to pull both of them as strongly as you can. In this crisis you can put Public Health on that list. We three of those are levers want to pull as hard as we can. The fed has done a lot. There is still more we can do additionally. I am more hopeful on where we are headed next year and im hopeful what we have done and also fiscal and Public Health authorities will put us in a much better place. Michael are using demand for credit . Pres. Barkin auto credit has been very strong. Mortgage credit has been very strong. On the business side, people took down their lines in march and april. They have repaid those. I am not seeing quite as much demand on the business side, in part because they spent most of the year in strong cash positions. Michael one of the questions about lending over the main Lending Program the fed runs is you issued a special Senior Lending officer by that had bank seeing over restrictive terms for borrowers or discouraging them from approving more loans, and others cited the unattractive terms for lenders for not making loans at all. Not offering them. What you do about that . Pres. Barkin i have not seen that survey, but we designed the main Street Lending facility to play a particular role. If bad be a bigger role news happens in the economy goes south. If there are loans coming into banks, they get the option of whether to keep them or whether to sell 95 into our main street facility. I am not sure it is bad news if theyre making the loans and keeping them. Michael the fed in june manned buybacks by banks and cap their dividends into the Fourth Quarter. Should that ban be extended . Pres. Barkin i think we put in place a protocol that allows us to have a deep investigation into the quality of capital levels of various banks. My view is we ought to do whatever we do on a bank by bank basis. Those banks that need to conserve capital ops to be conservative cap conserving capital and those that have sufficient capital off to be distributing ought to be distributing it. Michael i want to ask about the new framework than your view the economy will pick up does that mean inflation will pick up as well . Pres. Barkin there may be inflation in the near term if demand comes back stronger than people think at a time when supply chains are stretched. Our framework is not around any particular month or quarter inflation. It is much more around where we headed in the longterm inflation expectations. My hope is those will start to creep up toward our 2 target. Michael the new policy is appropriate Monetary Policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 . For tom barkin, what does moderately mean and how far above 2 . Pres. Barkin lets see when we get there. I gave a speech, you were there in idaho, i said i am supportive of range around 2 and a moderate range around 2 , 2. 5 ,r that is 1. 5 to im not focused on the difference between them. That is something close to as somebody put it, the word moderate means moderate. Michael that somebody was the chairman who also took pains to say in his News Conference that the new guidance is strong and powerful, which does not seem to be the read on wall street. Why do you think there is a disconnect . Pres. Barkin i do not know if there is a disconnect. Michael the analysis on wall street is you can move Interest Rates but you will not have much impact on the economy and less demand for credit picks up, unless something is done on capitol hill. Pres. Barkin there is a difference between looking backwards and looking forwards. For the last six months, we have gone strong in terms of what we can do to support the economy. Now we are looking forward over the next year or two. I think Forward Guidance is particular powerful when the economy comes back as i think it is going to. If you see a strength in the economy, if you see modest inflation, i think we will have a different conversation. Michael one of the other things people are watching is the equity market. Lower for longer raising Financial Stability concerns, particularly with ratios getting where they are. Are you worried the money youre putting into the economy they be ending up in the long in the wrong place, stimulating equity acquisition and share buybacks instead of stimulating growth . Pres. Barkin i am not a believer lower for longer means zero forever. Somet to normalize at point and i want to normalize as a response to a healthy economy. The equitytch markets as much as i watch leverage levels. The thing i would be nervous about this if you start seeing leverage in particular sectors that may be concerned. That is not where we are yet. Michael you are not seeing changes in borrowing patterns . Pres. Barkin credit card failings are down. I do not think at this moment in time when you do have low rates, that is one of the things you want to watch. I think at this point the banks are tightening standards, not the other way around. I do not see that as todays issue. Michael before i let you go, i have to ask you, has the financial crisis we are undergoing change the dynamic for the economy in terms of inequality . Shape talk about ak a k shaped recovery. Pres. Barkin if you look at the last 30 to 40 years the story has been the decline in middle income jobs and the growth in the high end jobs and those of the lower end. The sad part about the crisis is the low end jobs, which are disproportionately low income, personal service workers, waiters, amusement parks, retail folks. Those are the jobs that have been hit the hardest. I worry that group of people whove been brought in on the sidelines over last five or 10 years are now displaced, and the next best job is also displaced. The question of what are the things we can do to help those people reengage in the workforce and rebuild their careers into some of the places that are hotter, whether they be healthcare or manufacturing or construction or whatever. That is pretty important for us to work on. If we do not do that, i worry about what that will do for inequality. Michael thomas barkin, richmond fed president. Thank you for joining us on bloomberg. Pres. Barkin thanks, mike. Jonathan Michael Mckee, great work as always. A sneak peek at the s p 500. Were just about to turn positive. Well off the session lows. Negative just two points on the s p. Pretty much dead flat. I get the sense the market and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. The Federal Reserve keeps talking about higher inflation. The market and Market Participants want to know how you will engineer it. The Federal Reserve is talking about not hiking if things get better, and Market Participants want to know what you will do things get worse. I do not think either side is on the same page. Tom i would say they are not on the same page. The first thing i did was look at five year breakevens. There is a whiff of disinflation which is that market worry and pushes some of the fed optimism that is manufactured. Tom the conversation jonathan the conversation will continue on bloomberg. Coming up, we catch up with mike wilson, Morgan Stanleys chief u. S. Equity strategist. Ritika with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. Last nights president ial debate made one thing clear, the two candidates cannot stand each other. President trump and joe biden hurled insults. Biden . Everyone knows he is a liar. Trump you are the liar. Last in his class. Wrong guy, the wrong night, the wrong time. President trump you agreed with Bernie Sanders. Mr. Biden there is no manifesto. President trump you just lost the left. You agreed with Bernie Sanders on a plan. Mr. Biden you have any idea what this clown is doing . Ritika moderator Chris Wallace of fox news try to stay in control but had little success. The Trump Administration reportedly is widening Immigration Enforcement arrest. The rays would take place in cities and jurisdictions that have adopted sanctuary policies. Underlining the president s law and message. Counteringley is demands the coronavirus will crush the demand for office space. Bloomberg is reporting the bank is looking for a new headquarters in london. It is looking to move from its current premises in canary wharf. The sameey will neighborhood or the city of london. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. World,e are strong as a we all to come together. Can makeated stimulus it so we have a better economy on the others then we had in 2019 on the other side then we had in 2019. Tom good morning. Rgieva of the International Monetary fund in conversation with David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group cochairmen and cofounder and peertopeer conversations on bloomberg television. Interesting always to see these interviews with executives. Right now David Rubenstein joins us this morning. David, it is so interesting to see our International Institutions adapt to a pandemic , but also to the collapse of a multilateral world. What is your scorecard on the va . From lagarde to georgie how are they doing in this new world . David Christine Lagarde took over after a from her predecessor and shored up the imf and then left to become the European Central bank head. , youoman who replaced her do not have to be a woman, but there were two in a row, but the woman who replaced her is not that wellknown. She is unlikely to be the president of the world bank when you think about it. She is from bulgaria. Normally you get someone from western europe, france or germany heading up the imf and somebody from the u. S. Heads up the world bank. She was so impressive that she was the chief executive of the world bank, and then she became the head of the imf. During the pandemic they had to extend credit to countries that really needed money. For those that did not pay attention, the imf job is to shore up the Balance Sheets of countries in financial trouble. They also had to put a moratorium on loans being repaid by a number of countries because some of the countries cannot pay them back. When we look at the imf, it is the pulse of International Trade. Your work with carlisle speaks to international business. Do you by what we are seeing on the bloomberg terminal of not collapse just trade and good trade over the last decade . David i would say in the last year or two trade has been down a bit because there of been tariffs, their been trade barriers and other discussions, and also we have had a bad pandemic that slowed down the global economy. I think it will come back. I think after the election, whoever wins will begin to see International Trade pickup. There are a number of countries suffering from the pandemic and it will take it will take a while for them to recover. One aspect of your discussion had to do with china and asia, which is a big part of the emerging world and cannot be continued as such. Betterthanexpected Economic Data overnight. Is it doing a better job in controlling the virus, or is there Something Else at play . David china, if we believe the statistics, has had fewer people die than we have had in the United States. I think most people are going back to work in china. In the United States people are still working remotely. China in our lifetime may be the biggest economy in the world, it may be getting there quickly than we once thought. Chinese economies are in better shape. In some ways better shape than we are. Lisa how do you and other big investors position . David a lot of investors want to invest in china. There is no doubt the population is so big that when you have a good product or service you have three times as many customers. A lot of great investments have been made in the last 10 years by western investors. I think they will accelerate their investments in asia and particularly china. Withel with your tom your Public Service in the carter administration, i have to ask, has there ever been a carlisle meeting like the debate we watched last night . David no. It brought back memories. 40 years ago i was one of the advisors to president carter. It was a little more civil, you do not have people interrupting each other. It was something to see. I am out of the debate preparation world so i will watch and let others do that. I will say we did not usually have those kinds of salvage those kinds of shouting matches. Tom James Earl Carter was brandnew at this. I have the clearest memory of him watching off walking off airplane steps to greet mitch to stanza and there was Ronald Reagan driving to the middle of the Republican Party. Can either of these candidates find a middle territory in american politics, or are those days gone . David tougher than it used to be. In the 1970s when i worked on the capitol hill and the white house, democrats and republicans came together for bipartisan legislation. Since the Affordable Care act, you do not see any legislation that is bipartisan. That legislation had no republican votes. Most major legislation in the United States has had bipartisan support. I think that has gone away for a while. I do not see it happening any time soon. Lisa apart from the political circus we witnessed, there is a question about the reopening or read closing of the economy. I know was a major employer you have a perspective on this. Given the fact that restaurants are trying to reopen, where are you in terms of your staff coming back to the office and your expectations of how new york city will feature in your footprint . David we are moving into a new video into a new building. We are scheduled to move in in january. I think most employees are not dying to come back to work yet. Most of them are feeling i can work and home and maybe i will work five days a week, maybe three days a week. Probably it will be quite a while before all employees go back to their offices in new york because of the elevators and because of the commute. It is safer and easier to stay home for a while. Jonathan tom thank you so much. Peertopeer conversations tonight and seen around the world. The headline from the managing director of the imf, we will never have 100 staff working in the office. That is the reality we are driving to. What there is a question, is the future of the office, what is the future of cities, how much is this a transformative moment and how much is a pause . These are existential questions when people worry what else 2020 has to offer. Not to be dark. Tom we will see. We say good morning to all of you on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. A simulcast. Lisa abramowicz and tom keene. We say particular thanks to our Clinical Team for Global Coverage over the last hours. I came in this morning in the first person i saw was kailey leinz who is helping out asia with their interpretation of this debate. Lisa youre making our office sound like a sweatshop. Tom david westin with the coverage and was basically incoherent after a spirited evening. Lisa he nailed it. Kevin, if youre listening, you nailed it. Tom Kevin Cirilli nailed it. We look for the Vice President ial debate in a number of days. And then october 15 they do it again. Dow futures 48. Ferro. Up, Jonathan Paul sweeney and i will assist you on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning. Jonathan from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. Equity futures recovering. Down just four on the s p 500. We begin with the big issue. Fight night in cleveland. President trump you can never have done the job we have done. Biden you should get out of your bunker and get out of the sand trap. President trump this is not going to go well. Mr. Biden man. You shut up, trump ukraine with a billion of dollars. Mr. Biden that is not true. Guess i amrump i debating you, not him. Jonathan here is through