Attendance today, and the attention, i should say, is focused on the nations capital. Maybe it is an uproar to you. Maybe it is not. It is certainly an uproar inside the beltway. If you have been sleeping overnight, the Trump Administration takes fertile judicial action takes further judicial action against the former National Security advisor john bolton. His book is out, and trust me, it has been. In the news ritika gupta it has been in the news. Ritika gupta will give you the latest on that. Jonathan ferro, i am thrilled to talk to you about this. It must seem so foreign to see this. How do you, being from the motherland, how do you see all of these First Amendment debates within america . Jonathan i am not sure the United States would like to refer to the u. K. As the motherland this morning, so i will avoid my personal opinion on the matter. I do think it is amazing to witness what is happening, which is a man, john bolton, with the rare ability to upset pretty much everyone. I reflected on this in the last hour. Upsetting the democrats because he did not testify, and the fact they did the fact that the democrats are upset is fuel for the white house, saying that this is just a disgruntled employee who waited to save them when he published his book. Tom what is interesting, and this harkens back to 1971 and the pentagon papers, the distinction of classified and nonclassified, i was really vehemence,he the energy of First Amendment experts such as noah feldman, writing for bloomberg opinion. They were forceful in their essays yesterday. Lisa i think there is the legal consideration whether the book can be published. A lot of people saying it will just sell more look that this will just sell more of them. I think this is an issue weighing on some people in markets, saying this could be considerable risk. I am trying to understand what this risk is, how much the market will selloff if president wont gets like he reelected. That seems to be of the feeling in the tape yesterday. It seems to be an ongoing theme going forward. Tom tom of the bolton uproar tom maybe one of the linkages of the bolton uproar to our the withe is president xi. Meg mcclellan is at j. P. Morgan. One of her great distinctions is not only is she in the gaming of investment, the strategy of asset management, but she had a wonderful career as a trader as well. Is the bid right now in the market a real bid, or is it just fragile and fictitious . Meg i certainly think from the price action, you are seeing some real money. One of the interesting dynamics following the rally and the drop in developed markets rates has been a surge in overseas interest, specifically passing through and the credit markets. On top of extraordinary stimulus, you are seeing heightened for a few months lisa a lot of people are talking about the shadow banking industry, the private credit industry, and how it has played such a big role in intermediate in the banks. Are wondering how much you seeing delinquencies and defaults in that space, as a similar manner as we are seeing in public firms, more or less. What are we seeing their . Meg what are the one of the great things in the private credit market is to think about structure. I think in our markets, they. Ill be a while for example, a number of stressed advisors asked congress to appoint 250 more bankruptcy judges, just to get a sense of what may be coming. So certainly, i would keep an eye on the data coming into our understandingthe that there is a bit more lag and a lot more flex ability and a lot more flex ability in working with borrowers. One of the ways we do have Interesting Data coming in is with our real estate team. We are seeing rents and rent collection start to stabilize, but there is still a huge bifurcation between retail, coming in around potentially half or lower than that, versus that are fatal lysed that are fatalized. Certainly, that is flowing through in terms of our outlook for how different lending markets look going forward. Lisa lets go to real estate, in particular, commercial real estate. People have been talking about the death of the office in the wake of the pendant. Are you starting to see value there . Or are you optimistic that there will be more returning to normal after this . Lisa meg we are seeing a huge amount of opportunity for lenders to step in, where traditional lenders have had to step back a little bit. Estate debthe real funds, with have funds, which have some issues. The banks are taking a bit of a breather and thinking about their credit risk and portfolio. The markets are opening back up, but there is still a huge amount of dislocation and bifurcation. Is a huge role for private lending there. Whether it is performing loans or nonperforming loans, you want to be careful about the type of underlying assets you are buying. Where is their temporary disruption in the cash flow versus value destruction . That may be some of the play in the of the retail space. Lisa do you see any permanent destruction . Meg i think it will be more of a value shift. Even within retail, thinking about things like how people the notp going forward, is a much better collection. So i think in retail, there will be strength emerging in certain places. Maybe it is accelerated by the pandemic. Tom ive got one final question, and i want to take it back to chicago mathematics. The geometry we are in right now is a complete fiction off of all the theory we learned in the. Extbooks what siri are you using day today what siri are you using day today what theory are you using day today to give you confidence in the markets . Meg what we are seeing is where the stimulus has missed, the opportunity persists. So what is happening is in credit markets, a number of the may be getting the extra merry stimulus in place. There are still significant touchedere it cannot be by the existing programs. That is really where we are seeing value, where we see the underlying assets have a strong case if you do wind up becoming a number becoming an owner operator. We are confident we can make our way through this at a really attractive riskadjusted return. You are looking at the private markets, the Public Market just captains who forcefully. Just so much in credit spreads this morning, recovering to a half wave off of the wides. In the private market, we are still lending near alltime gets, where we can actually more protection for our lenders, and that is the same level of confidence we have in terms of the Property Valuation and the underlying value estimation. I dont know if i need textbook. He tell me that. It is really just this extraordinary nature of private transaction, where we really can risk assess and structure to meet a good riskadjusted term for investors. Jonathan good morning to you. My best to you and yours. Megan mcclellan there of j. P. Morgan asset management. We are down 32 on the s p, negative around 1 . 20 minutes away from claims data and america. Flighty, to say the least. If you take a look right now, and then the enthusiasms of unnamed tuesday, i cant give why except now, or maybe the nervousness of that data. Jonathan lisa was talking about credit spreads. They are not quite as tight of the year, and certainly not the last cycle, but if you look any borrowing cost for Investment Companies in isolation, what am i borrowing costs what are my borrowing costs . And they are low. Lisa they are actually at a new record low of 2. 17 , which to me is pretty interesting, considering the fact that the actual fundamentals are getting worse. The leverage is increasing. It raises a question about the future. , how will these Companies Pay it back, and are investors getting compensated for the risk . Right now, investors are getting compensated not too much for. Jonathan you can thank the for that one as well. Coming up on this program, we turn the conversation to china. John bolton doing what he does best, dropping some real bombs, this time on the trade deal between china and the United States, with Leland Miller of the china beige book. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Fora is vowing retaliation a u. S. Law that sanctions beijing for imprisoning more than one million muslims. It requires President Trump found toindian visuals be aiding the imprisonment of uighurs or other religious minorities. Book appearsom the in the wall street journal, a devastating per trail of the president s conduct of Foreign Policy. President trump called bolton a liar, and the Trump Administration has asked a federal judge to stop the book from being published. Critics of a national secured a law and hong kong warned that it would threaten the Financial Centers unique freedom. The measure would punish acts of ession, collusion, secession and hong kong. According to boston consulting group, as much as 16 trillion of wealth could disappear. Plus, growth could be slowed for the next five years. The report says the biggest losers could be rich people in north america and japan. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Not a uniquely chinese phenomenon, but in china, certainly this year, there has been a marked tilt towards a more nationalistic bias in terms of the conduct with international relations. Jonathan George Magness of the university of oxford on the geopolitical tension we are seeing at the moment, with china at the heart of much of it on many levels. From new york this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. Bloomberg surveillance this isbloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. Just ahead of Economic Data in the United States, still negative on the s p 500. A bid came into the bond market in the last hour as well, down to 0. 7 . Your 30 year right now sub five basis points on the session. 1. 48 is your yield. Tom 12 minutes away from the claims number, and we will give you that discuss further in our next halfhour. Right now, you just heard from George Magnus and his wonderful book on president xi. Who does George Magnus listen to . He listens to Leland Miller. Miller has come out of washington and Lee University and carved out a career as the absolute definitive micro analyst of china. No one, and i mean no one, does it better than Leland Miller at trying to figure out what real traffic or what electric utility rates are doing to china, and what it signals. Let me get right to it in your china beige book. What do you see of interior demand dynamics across great china . Lelan one of the major problems leland one of the major problems, fading the year hasnt been synchronized with the economy shutting down, and most of the rest of the world shutting down after that. Factory orders are doing really poorly right now, which means the coast. In the interior, you are seeing much better numbers simply because they are banking on a domestic rebound, which you will see as the chinese recovery incrementally gets better over this year. Right now, china doesnt want to be reliant on its interior provinces, but that is where the growth is right now, while the coast really feels the pain. Tom lets talk about beijing jonathan lets talk about beijing. Really hard to get a read on what is happening on the ground right now. What they say is that they have a small outbreak of covid infections. What they are doing is canceling flights and closing schools again. What is your read at things at the moment . Leland if you look at the numbers, it looks like this micro blip you see all over the world now. But beijing has symbolic power for the Chinese Communist power. If they lose control of that city, you have a potential political crisis on your hands in addition to economic repercussions. So what the government is doing is pretty much the opposite of what they were doing three months ago. When they started the shut down, they forced everyone back to and damn the consequences. When it comes to beijing, they are being extremely careful. They want to make sure that beijing is not the center of a new outbreak for symbolic reasons, as well as the fact that it is the major center of power. Lisa one Major Political issue is the jobs picture. We heard from George Magnus that while the official rate of joblessness is about 5. 9 percent, he estimated it at more than 15 to 20 . Is that what your figures are showing as well . Leland i think george, as usual, was right. The problem is when you track unemployment in china, the government gauges dont try to get into it because they dont want to tell a negative story, but even if you do things like beige books, firms typically report on them limit. And there is this hiatus from being repaid right now. Some have been furloughed, some havent been rehired back. In thewill see a bump jobs number even though they havent been laid off in the first place. If they said it was 15 or 20 , people would lose their minds. So these are the types of numbers that you know the situation is much worse, but you dont know what the exact numbers are behindthescenes. Lisa one thing we are seeing is that the pboc is starting to increase credit in the economy by nearly 1 5 this year, according to an announcement overnight. A lot of people saying this isnt enough. What is your take . Leland it is not enough come but theres a couple of things going on. If i look at our credit gauges come i am shocked by what i am seeing because you would expect the same type of liquidity. Ollout in the United States they are worried about nonperforming loans come up at the levels are quite shocking. We will have levels on those out next week, but it is looking pretty surprising. The opposite of that is the demand picture, and the fact that a lot of firms arent asking for loans right now. We have this reduced loan demand that begs the question, why, during this extremely trying time, our firms not more desiring of loans . Is it because they dont like the economic horizon, they are worried about piling on loans during an uncertain environment . This is really the big picture. Look at supply, but loan demand is going to be the key thing to watch over the next three or four months. Jonathan Leland Miller there right now. Fascinating stuff. The labor market absolutely critical, and the very fact that people think the chinese coming of party cant tell you where , social instability is a risk for the Chinese Communist party, it makes it so difficult to get a clear read on the second largest economy in so many ways. Tom theres no question about that. What is so important is we are staggering from valentines day in march, and everybody had a nice framework out to may, and now we are in the middle of june, and there is no framework. Nobody has a framework in america, or certainly in china, until, say, the middle of september. Unprecedented. Jonathan lets talk about the june data as well, five minutes away from jobless claims. Everybody is trying to work out what the balance looks like coming out of this contraction. We all assume it tails off in the coming months, but i dont want to completely disregard what we have seen, including retail sales this week. Are we going to see that validated in a significant improvement in claims . The data is five minutes away. Lisa we didnt see it last week. We saw a less than expected decline in continuing claims, which i am watching very closely. In the u. S. , it has been very difficult to even collect the data because more distressed households havent written responding havent been responding to the Service Claims in the way they would have. Jonathan full coverage here on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. This is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. Equity futures bouncing off the lows, down to 0. 6 . From new york, this is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. From new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. Alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro together with lisa abramowicz. Jobless claims on deck with equity futures recovering, bouncing obsession lows, down. 6 . Heres the data. Lets cross over to Michael Mckee. Michael a bounce in the wrong direction in terms of jobless claims. 1,580,000 that is a decrease week was because last revised. G. Little confusing t much more than anticipated by the markets. The Consensus Forecast was 1,298,000. Continuing claims number is 20 million 544,000, that is a decrease of 62,000 from the revised previous week. That is two weeks ago. Initial claims last week, continuing claims two weeks ago. We are seeing a bit of a decline. Pandemic insurance claims rise 760,526. Of 66,000. Increase these are the people who get unemployment who are not usually eligible for it. Freelance work and gig workers, things like that. Let me quickly check and see the number of people reporting big changes. California up 27,000. Massachusetts up 17,000. Want to see if theres any connection with the latest outbreaks of the covid virus. Those of the weekend of june 6. We might to keep an eye on some of those dates. Jonathan unite been talking of last couple of weeks. We have seen huge upside surprises. Here this morning with the philly fed, a massive upside surprise. Claims does not validate the improvement we are seeing in data elsewhere. This is a head scratcher. Where are you on it . Ofhael the problem is a lot these numbers are overlapping and a little bit old. The claims numbers are we called in terms of initial claims, two weeks old in terms of continuing claims. There are deferential definitional differences. The interesting thing people may want to be watching is the information on the Philadelphia Fed because the anecdotal numbers are going to be helpful in giving us a picture of what is going on, even if we do not know what the actual numbers are. The philly fed Employment Index is still negative, but it was 15. 3 last month. Companies are not hiring in the philadelphia region, but they are less pessimistic about their payrolls than they were, maybe letting fewer people go. That is about all he can do is try to square the circles. Jonathan Michael Mckee on the latest data. Great to catch up with you. Tom keene, looking at this data, it does not validate the exuberance we have seen elsewhere. I imagine for the optimists, they will look at the philly fed outlook and say people expect things to get better. Things are Getting Better week on week, month on month. The pessimists want to see the claims come down and come down quickly as we reopen. Tom i want to sit on this before we get to Tony Rodriguez of nuveen to talk about bond market dynamics. On an economic basis, all i can do is go back to the religion of those that believe in High Frequency data, whether it is Carl Weinberg for drew matus, the same idea. I cannot emphasize enough how these pros look at the weekly data as religion, and they clearly tilt to the tone of this versus the other things, as michael correctly said, like philadelphia, which is more anecdotal. Jonathan lisa, the difficulty coming into the print, collecting the numbers, the quirks beneath the labor market, things that distort the number for the may payrolls report and the things distorting the number this morning we are still trying to work through and smooth out your lisa it is hard and smooth out. Lisa is hard for individuals working at the bureau of labor statistics to get in touch of all of the families. The families in the most trouble are the ones not responding to the surveys. There have not been as many responses. Theyre all of these kinks in the jobs data. How do you categorize someone who is furloughed . Are they employed or unemployed . These are questions that factored into the may report which will confuse the matter more in june. Dear point, not confirming the optimism. We are seeing 10 year treasuries at session lows. Fiveyear yields, same kind of pressures. Equity futures head lower as people take a look and say perhaps the Economic Data has not as good as other indicators were suggesting. 24athan equity futures down on the s p 500. Tom thank you for bringing that up. We have seen a deterioration as well. Joining us is Tony Rodriguez of nuveen. What is so good about him is he worked for years and the acclaimed General ElectricInvestment Fund which is smart people on the dynamics of credit. He is now with the legendary bond analyst in chicago at nuveen. Tony rodriguez, thank you for joining us this morning. How do you interpret this Economic Data over peoples ability to find a nominal yield of merit or a real yield of any substance . How do you as a bond guy hold in this difficult Economic Data . Tony good morning. Nice to be with you. I think todays data in particular brings in a little bit more sobering perspective than what people were feeling after seeing the gains in retail sales and the surprising numbers on the employment side, the employment report. This is more consistent with what jay powell has been saying in his congressional testimony, where he has been giving a more pessimistic i would not say pessimistic, a more sober view. We in nuveen are not in the camp of a vshaped recovery. We think it will be a more bumpy recovery. When youre talking about continuing claims still over 20 million, initial claims a million and a half, that speaks to the fact that there will be a bumpy recovery, because Consumer Spending is such a key driver of the u. S. Economy. If you have that many people still on unemployment claims who do not have a job, it will be difficult for the u. S. Economy to come roaring back into vshaped form than some of the optimists in the equity market seem to be thinking. Jonathan lets talk about the bounce. We have had the contraction. Now we are experiencing the bounce. Many of us expecting it to flatten out after late summer. I am wondering what you are learning from the about so far. I do not want to disregard the bounce we are seeing in the data because we are seeing significant upside surprises. How important are they . Tony the bounce is important because for us it said the debt from the Second Quarter session would not be quite so low, and the recovery would be a little faster, but not to the extent of changing into a vshaped recovery by any means. When you evaluate what is going on with the data, it makes you understand what is keeping the markets where they are, whether it is rates where they are, credit spreads where they are, i would argue equity valuations where they are is clearly coming down to the fed and fiscal policy, the primary driver being the fed. Rates are forcing people to find income elsewhere, pushing them out the risk curve. When you have a Balance Sheet that is growing as aggressively as it is along with other Central Banks, you have a fied put that gives investors confidence that if we see a deterioration in data we will see the fed and other Central Banks coming with larger bazookas and increase their purchases to support risk assets. Lisa perhaps that is what you are seeing and equities off the lows after the weaker than expected data. Given dont fight the fed and the fact that is the predominant factor in market are tiffany, in market activity, why not going to the riskiest assets . There is a conservative thesis among many investors. I am wondering what it will take for them to lose that given the fed support . Tony that is a very interesting point, lisa. From our perspective we would argue the highest quality assets , mortgages and treasuries, the fed has completely brought those markets back to where they were no longer attractive on a relative value basis. When you think about the lowest quality segments of the market, that is where we feel the fed is too fearful to tread. They will not be in the lowest quality highyield. It is the mid quality space where they are operating, so they have programs in place to going to the investmentgrade credit market, to go to the securitized market. Tot support reverberates out the highest quality segments of highyield. In the w space. Is where you can be comfortable you are benefiting from all of the fed and global Central Banks activity, but you are not as exposed to it. A very difficult economic picture receiver a lot of companies and a lot of industries as we move through the balance of this year and even through the first half and most of 2021. Jonathan Tony Rodriguez, always great to catch up with you. Joining us from nuveen asset management. Head of fixed income strategy. The data on the labor market, huge upside surprise a couple of fridays ago in the payrolls report. By as not been validated significant improvement in claims data. I think we all want to see continuing claim start to drift lower quickly. Respect. Ve i got an a massive pissing match with the late jack welch. He went after the statistical people of els, and he said all that matters is countable, and the magic of the thursday data, even compared to the jobs report is accountability of it. I thought Michael Mckee did a great job. I have immense respect for a four week moving average of continuing claims that we will see july 15 or maybe august 1. Jonathan what was that . They want match . Did you say that on tv . Lisa really . Tom that is the way you talk with jack welch. Jonathan i know what you can say after 9 00 in the evening in united kingdom. Im not sure what you can say in the morning in the United States. Good morning to upgrade alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro together with lisa abramowicz. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. John bolton has come out with a devastating portrayal of President Trumps conduct of Foreign Policy in his new book. Bolton writes the president asked xi jinping to help him win reelection by buying more u. S. Farm products. The president calls bolton a liar. The administration has asked a judge to stop the books publication but several newspapers have copies and our printing details. Senate republicans will begin debate on a Police Reform bill next week. The measure would create incentives to ban the use of charcoals. Senate majority leader mitch supportl will lead the as the forceswn sweetheart. The singer who serenaded british troops around the globe. Lynnverlin dame vera has died. Prime minister Boris Johnson paid tribute, saying she uplifted the country and some of its darkest hours. She was 103 years old. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. This does assume all of this assumes the virus remains reasonably under control and does not experience any event where the virus rises across the nation. Lets assume that does not happen. Jonathan we all hope that will not happen. Afteras chairman powell two days of testimony on capitol hill, where it got tense on the subject of fiscal policy. From new york city, alongside tom keene, im Jonathan Ferro together with lisa abramowicz. This is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. I am about to step away, but in about 10 minutes i will be catching up with Aaron Brown Pimco on browne of whether traditional valuation method still apply in a world dominated by central bank qe. Tom cannot emphasize enough how important that question is. We talked about that moments ago. I wonder of traditional valuation or core theory, if it plays out. That will be most interesting as well. What we like to do is have an important conversation with the gentlelady from utah. Is with verily. She has an important book on health care and Health Care Solutions in america. , i cannot have a normal conversation, utah and the mountain states having a new epidemic of the pandemic. Give us an update of what utah sees with the covid virus . Dr. Lee great to be with you. A couple of years ago, up until a couple of years ago i was leading the university of Utah Health Care system and have been full of admiration for the way in which that state has been managing the crisis, has been keeping it and has been among the lowest in the country. As we are seeing across the country places we thought were going to survive relatively unscathed, they are seeing upticks in the covid crisis and it is all the more important we recognize the guidance we are hearing from our Public Health officials, we need much more testing, we need to do the social distancing and masking. Those are evermore imperative now. No one is immune. Tom i have to ask the professional question, one of the most piercing comments we had was with the chief radiologist at mount sinai on the virus. You are a radiologist. What have you learned about the information around the chest cavity in this virus . What you discern about how we can battle the virus, vaccine or novak seen, in terms of the cavity of the body . Dr. Lee what is so striking about this virus is the fact there are so many people who feel pretty good. They actually are relatively asymptomatic. Even though they walk around and do not necessarily feel of fever or have a cough, they are covid positive, and we have seen from the reports and of the literature that they have findings on their chest ct scans. They have abnormal findings in their lungs. That virus is affecting them but they are not manifesting symptoms. Just yesterday the fda issued guidance that says none of these tests for widescaleapproved or testing of people who are asymptomatic, but they acknowledge that is going to be necessary. We are going to need to test people who are asymptomatic and they provided templates for laboratories and manufacturers to get that approval to be able to test a symptomatic people for covid. That will be a critical component of getting people back to work, getting students back to campuses. We will have to have a strategy because we are seeing from taking images of people who feel fine that they are infected and that means they are also infectious. They can spread that disease to other people. We need to identify those folks and be able to quarantine them to protect everyone else. Lisa meanwhile we have seen a resurgence in places like california and texas and florida , with anecdotal accounts of the icu beds getting filled up and a shortage of general practitioners and icu nurses. What you see some of the ways to fill that gap that is so sorely being reflected in this pandemic of general practitioners, of nurses who have perhaps not been favored as far as Upper National career because theyve not been as wellpaid as the more highly compensated specialist . Thelee one of the things covid crisis is laying bare is the fundamental shortcomings of our health care system. Our Health Care Hospitals are designed to focus on things that generate fees. As soon as those start going away, like the primary care clinics, like all the hospital beds that were not caring for covid, we had to lay people off. The april data showed we laid 1. 5 billion healthcare care workers off. Last year was little bit better. They rehired 300,000. That is 1. 2 million workers. That is a tragedy. The people being laid off are the people we need to care for the most vulnerable. Countryeople across the , and they are the ones we need to get back to work. Lee, i need to be in the timeout chair, because we spent no time on your wonderful book, the long fix. We will be back soon to talk about an important book on what can be done to begin to fix this amazing mass of the american medical system. Of theamazing mess american medical system. Vivian lee with us. The fix tox may be get claims back down. What you see . 210,000 . Good luck with that. Lisa we are still at 1. 5 million. The job market improvement is the slowest since the firings peeked out. We are seeing a plateau in the improvement about how much we can see the ongoing upside surprises we have seen in the Economic Data, or whether this is a bounce that will not be able to sustain itself in the upcoming weeks and months . Tom we begin the morning with Gina Martin Adams talking about the corrective move we see. Day three of that corrective move futures little soggy an hour ago. Jonathan ferro had the mathematics. Right now 17 on futures. Dow futures 189. The vix shows there may be tension with the backup of one big figure. 34. 69. We may have to watch that. I immediately go to the two year ,. 19 as well. This thursday will be not only a listing of what is going on in economics, but i want to draw your attention to the breaking news you may see from bluebird in washington. From bloomberg in washington. Goodurse kevin cirillis work as well on the matter of the bolton papers. Much more through the morning. Please stay with us. This is bloomberg. Good morning. From new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. Openountdown to the starts right now. We begin with the victim issue. The tugofwar between the pandemic data and the long recovery ahead of us. I do not think we have seen anything like this. Demand shock of unprecedented proportions. Absolutely unprecedented. An unprecedented situation. The course of the economy will depend on the course of the virus. None of us know the contour of the economy. Stabilization or a modest rebound. Definitely a comeback. Markets are discounting mechanisms. They are looking toward that improvement. If there is aan bubble, it is in the use of the word unprecedented. Equity futures down. 7