Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240713

Routes in the u. K. Is incredibly difficult. As a result of which, to be in a for Francine Lacqua this morning. Lets have a look at the markets honest, this is something that then. Was probably always going to happen. Tom as an american, i would the stoxx 600 is down by. 2 . Suggest that may be possibly we opened in positive territory because the Railroad System is lifted with talk to come. So darned better than ours. Flybe we will talk much more about that today. That puts the virus front and sentiment from center. Its get to first word news with the trading day. Viviana hurtado. Countries are ongoing headlines are weighing on things at u. S. Futures are pointing negative. Tightening travel restrictions to contain coronavirus. There are reports japan will quarantine all people arriving this is the picture on oil markets. From china and south korea. Focusedthe brent price, australia has also added south korea to its band list. On the opec plus meeting in declaring a state of vienna. I saw the Nigerian Oil Minister emergency. Focusing on how he is sure a hill, 8 billion has compromise will be achieved. Been approved to fight the virus. Saudi arabia and russia are lets get a first word news split over making bigger cuts in update. Oil production. China, where more the coronavirus has hammered the oil market. Prices are down more than 20 than 3000 people have died the since the start of the year. The saudis want to cut as much coronavirus this is according to as 1. 5 Million Barrels a day, chinese authorities. But russia wants to maintain production at current levels. Globally, the number of to u. S. Politics the road to confirmed cases is around 95,000 the democratic president ial nomination has gotten tougher infections in south korea appear for Bernie Sanders. The next primaries are in states to be slowing. Where joe biden is poised to do well. We are talking about florida, it is the biggest outbreak outside of china. Michigan, and ohio. Biden is in a strong position to they is announcing pull away from winning 10 states nationwide closure of schools and universities. Thats as the country doubles on super tuesday peer he picked up the endorsement of michael efforts to curb worst outbreak bloomberg, who dropped out of in europe. The race. Esther bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg the government is considering lp, the parent of bloomberg other measures, including a ban news. Leaders of russia and turkey are trying to patch things up. On conferences and cultural events. Vladimir putin and recep derrida neighboring regions are almost in a near lockdown. Recep early again our bailey signaled a coordinated u. K. Response to the meeting today. Coronavirus, working handinhand with the treasury. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i amthan 120 countries, speculationnting viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. There will follow the Federal Reserve in cutting rates. This is the data check. I want to center on the twoyear aldman sachs predicted reduction at the meeting. Yield in the United States, futures 48 off that giant opec plus is stuck on the issue normas upset yesterday. Of output cuts. Normasff that giant and and saudi arabia upset yesterday. Curve steepening. 32ish. To the vix, have Different Levels of cuts per day the meeting in vienna is scheduled for around 9 30. There is the close yesterday on the dow, just above 27,000 the warren andlizabeth twoyear yield, i am going to Bernie Sanders discussing joining forces. Four digits. 6308. 6379. Raday is a poor showingr guy . On super tuesday for the massachusetts senator. Endorsedloomberg has yesterdays big surge, joe biden. Unsurprising to see the xp down around the world without. 10. 8 . Global news 24 hours a day, travel and leisure is down a little bit more. That sector continues to suffer. Powered by more than 2700 eurodollar catching a bid, yesterday on dollar, brent a journalists and analysts in over 27 countries. This is bloomberg. Anna thank you very much. Little softer today, but still north of 50 bucks a barrel. Tom we have two wonderful lets get to our top story. The u. S. House has passed an emergency spending bill to fund guests to drive forward the the response to the outbreak. Conversation. Much more about the linkage of the virus, an expanding virus it is triple the amount proposed mast last week. Into what we see in finance, into economics, and into banking. Meanwhile, the imf is making billions available at zero Daniel Morris with us with bnp paribas Asset Management. Interest for the poorest nations. Is what central bankers and and joining us, quarantine in italy i make a joke of that other policymakers have told us davide serra. About the situation. There is a great deal of , in more gentle times, you and i have sat with a spread uncertainty about the longevity up in that Beautiful Lake north of the outbreak. Of milan and enjoyed the view. We will have to provide some it is a changed northern italy. You are living that in milan. Form of supply chain finances and the not very distant future give us one anecdote about you and your familys day today path to ensure thate in milan right now. Milan has taken the effects of the virus are not damaging. Davide milan has taken we do expect that growth this precautions. Year under any scenario would be tohink basically you need below the level of last year. Is how severe is limit contact. Theink they are making shutting down, it going to be and how long will it last . Anna Annmarie Hordern has been school for two weeks. In singapore, two weeks ago, looking at the expectations further easing. Everyone was working remotely, we haveugh here and i think the same, the office heard and seen a lot, there are still expectations. Was completely empty. Is price the market reactivated they are again every central bank to just do more. Asking two thirds of the we have already heard from the workforce to stay home. Fed, malaysia, and elsewhere. Because unfortunately the virus they are even pricing in a moves, in my view, with economic 25 basis point cut, so quite linkages. Huge. I dont think the outskirts of milan have great economic bullard,from james linkages with china, while the saying the situation is fluid. Rest of the world actually does. He did say not to prejudge the meeting. But take a look at what the the virus is alive since the market is pricing in our 25th of november, so whenever trade happens, travel could lead pricing in. The market is certainly to an outbreak. Prejudging. Not just in milan, but globally. Hordernanks to annmarie tom he is coming to us today for bringing that to us. From london. Daniel morris, clearly the theme set is the head of strategytthew macro this morning is all within finance and investment. Portfolio,adjust the and the cio at rathbones. Given these micro and many shocks that we see . At the start of this week, the daniel what we have been doing in our mostly multiasset question was simple. Funds is to buy the dip. We have seen the dip now bounce even though in the short term back a bit on the expectations there is uncertainty, there will we dont and and reality of support. Are you buying risk assets at this point . Think the fundamental mediumterm outlook has changed, not aggressively. But we think the goldilocks moniker for this is we feel this is the eye of the storm. Inappropriate. We will and up with lower growth, clearly no threat from i was referring to when your colleague was talking about 1987 inflation other than the in the study of human nature. Shortterm hits we might get because of supply constraints. As we have seen with the fed, very supportive Central Banks. You saw the initial selloff. Than better for equities for fixed income, especially when you have lows that have now is are going to see fallen. Guy do you think the lows were in on friday . The return of a rate cut from daniel one thing for certain, the fed and more to come. We will have these volatility it was clearly signaled of this spikes. Would be a rate cut. Timing it for today is almost impossible, which means we could go lower again before we go higher. We are trying to have a longerterm view than the next Central Banks are demonstrating week and the next day paired by they are on top of the situation. Three months we think we will be higher than today. Lines will look at supply guy european Banking Sector , luxury goods, and start looks like it is going through a bear market. Revising their numbers. Anna switzerland is reporting we are seeing the effects of what is happening here rippling its first coronavirus death. Through the European Finance sector. The number of cases is jumping. Talking of the European Finance sector, do you expect the ecb to to see more of this be doing more . The fed has been doing more, the is what Health Officials tell us. Ecb has less room to maneuver. Thatme extent, companies we will talk with jeanclaude trichet about this later in the program. Are really exposed are telling what do you think the ecb is going to do . Us things are starting to get back to normal after this daniel it will put pressure on dreadful event. Them, but it will expose the dilemma that they face, what we must then brace ourselves exactly are they going to do. What happens in europe. There was a shock in china we will be asking ourselves hopefully in a couple of years for sure and its good that the when we had a recession in the euro zone, but what has happened community is speaking up, though with the crisis. It has not resumed completely. Bringing this forward to today, to try to determine what can but this is a shock that is they do. The fed is going to do more good than harm, negative rates being global. Sense, its good that china the prime example. Up to now the view i think has become more accepted, fernley is picking up because it is certainly for the financial still happening elsewhere. Sector, has done more harm than we have yet to see what impact good. They could go more negative, especially to weaken the euro, it might have on economies as a whole. But what will it do to the mix . Anna its interesting to see twoyear watching the how much we have jumped on the u. S. Yield still above record promise of a watchful eye from the fed. Lows. With Daniel Morris, we have davide serra. You need to know not only his work in Asset Management but there is a claim in morgan is this where the new stanley years ago, European Bank information comes from . Research. Yes. Will we see consolidation in if you observe authorities. European banking . Can the virus be an excuse to consolidate . They have been drip feeding support across the whole month. Listen, inhink, i think other Central Banks could learn a lesson from that. Europe, there are about 3 million thanking employees. Say, we dont know the because banking is public 3 extent of this and cases are million banking employees. Expect there to be more going to rise before we flatten out. , think they need to do that and obviously, dont bank on happened tohat has another rate cut. Thats exactly what andrew media, telecoms, manufacturing, bailey will try in a few weeks. Will happen to the banking industry. Anna should fiscal actors be because of labor laws in europe, the only way you can facilitate it is through merger and trying for shock and all and acquisition. That is why local lows allow awe . Basically for that. I definitely think it should i do expect more inmarket mergers. Be big fiscal stimulus. Farlaws, the regulators so if this is not the case, i dont our country by country, and know when is. Hence a market mergers, seen recently with the data, with an this is the case when governments need to spend independent of their limitations. Offer for you be in italy. And if we see a bear market any spill over the demand or banks, and i would suggest that credit side, this is where the European Banking experience is different what do the bank Central Banks step in. But to tackle the direct chief executive officers need consequences of the shock, we from Christine Lagarde in ecb . Need spending. Has to be timely and effective. Think that what they enough to just pile money into infrastructure or big need is, first, from the products. It is about targeting the areas ecb,kers, more than the where more help is needed. They need a proper single the first test for the u. K. Banking market. I would say for example there is one bank in europe that makes government obviously comes next week on march 11 with the Budget Service accessible in finance, it is bache of basically the i think there will be mutual fund industry. Infrastructure spending for sure it will also be aimed at helping products sold globally Smaller Companies around the whole globe. Outside the United States, you information that go from brazil all the way to tokyo. A number of international basically it is the new Industry Standard outside america. Clearers are bringing around cards, andcredit companies they know source at a china and asking them about supply trends. Secondly, the ecb, what they need is not negative, not its happening gradually positive, just zero. Already, governments can do more basically in the industry making sure they can operate because and im sure they are on the they have fixed costs and case because they needed to be negative rates are a huge problem because basically most seem to be seen doing something. This crisis has played out importantly, there are losses on through social media which has the back ends. We arei think actually put more pressure on governments than it might have before. Julian both stay not going to see inflation and with the hong with us. Opec plus holds an kong protests, plus paris, in my emergency meeting, that meeting has gone ahead. View there is on ensuring in sachshead Goldman Europe and in china. The reason is because the of commodity research. Breaking of the supply chains this is bloomberg. That we have experienced over months, are, 9, 12 we thinking what would it matter theeep some of the costs, the delays, the complexity right now outweighs the cheap labor costs in asia. And i think over the next couple of years we will see a reon shoring of investment. All the blockage of supply chain people. Tom lets leave it there. Davide serra with us, Daniel Morris with us through the hour. We have much more coming up. Esther bullied speaking yesterday, making national and indeed mr. Bullard speaking yesterday, making national and indeed international news. The 5 00 p. M. Hour, the dallas fed president Robert Kaplan will join us. Linking business with centralbank action. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Anna this is bloomberg surveillance. Opec plus ministers are in vienna for crucial thoughts on oil output. The first meeting saw saudi arabia and russia split over the prospects of deeper production cuts. Wti crude has a raised gains ahead of the meeting. Manus cranny joins us with the latest. Manus, we saw you trying to get some time with the iranian delegation earlier on. Put off byack is not the coronavirus, it would seem. What have you learned so far . Theme coming through is compromise. Tom bloomberg surveillance the word of the minister used as come code come keene in new york he got in the car was compromise. Would you leave vienna without a tom keene in new york, guy deal . We would find a compromise. Johnson london for Francine Lacqua. I have got to respect the uae. Coming up, jeanclaude trichet will join us in this real world they were the only one that didnt get into a big mercedes experience of the french swine and drive off into the sunset. Pandemic in 2009 looking forward he walked, and as he walked, he to speaking with the former talked. President of the ecb. He made it clear this is not guy very much looking forward to that conversation. About the politics but about doing the deed. Davide serra and Daniel Morris are still with us. The market has braced for a daniel, it spoke fear. Million. Daniel the market seemingly it may be delusional to think you are getting more than that. Ultimately came to the view and the russians are either playing we go back and forth with markets going up with what is behind it. When you have an emergency cut a great piece of theater here in of that size, you start thinking terms of being bellicose. There must be an emergency. That may be the message we by the way, the russian reporter should have taken initially. Is standing behind me, so i had better not misspeak. Reaction ina better what do you reckon . The market, it may not be what the fed has done will ultimately 1. 2 on the cards . Going to be so helpful over the mediumterm, but it may be more more to go, another day of chasing. Around either the anticipated anna just me this hour. Path for the virus or the fiscal stimulus, which on the market will be more effective than monetary. Guy davide serra, joining us manus cranny in vienna keeping track of market expectations. Will have more analysis on the meeting later. With what the fed is allergic blog. On our live to, lets talk about the still with us on set is anna and dish isxisting in julian. Alluding to, how stressed is the let me come to you on the oil price. Industry in italy, and is there anything that can be done about clearly, commodities have been this . Beaten up by expectations and weak demand. Think with know, i now it seems the supply story is back in charge. What happened in china or in we need to see what opec singapore, right now basically you have tourism that was shut, decides. Take two or three weeks. If i see retail sales across the the nature of the demand shock north, in italy, it is a large is evolving. Country. Right now the out rake is a lot depends on how long it limited to a few regions. Will last. If i see retail sales go abound overall, when you think about macro analysis more generally, these prices are good for the 50 , 60 in the last week, so economy because it is good for two or three weeks, we would consumers. Expect you could knock off within the economy, a low oil probably a quarter of the price is good for consumers. Economic activity. But if they have to stay at down 0. 2,obably take home, they are not going to drive more. There are limits to how 0. 3, 0. 4 of gdp, so expect a much the Lower Oil Price can push up demand. Flat gdp number. In china i think they contained have we started to get a handle because they had a bigger outbreak, harsher. Wellect the gdp to be on supply demand in china . Will that help us understand below the official estimate. Davide, with the Global Oil Demand or is china just such a different market . Not such a different market. Credit markets, certainly on surveillance, this was a huge theme yesterday others have traffic has picked up in the voiced it as well. Evening. What do you observe in the to your point, people are specifying the staying at home more and it will but time to build up again movements in the last few days of the spread market . Davide our view is that the fed the russians are obviously playing a tough game. My suspicion is we will get to a made a mistake because treating Million Barrels. A virus with a fed cut is like means 3. 7 million and 12 if you are sick and rather than months or Something Like that. Going to a doctor you go to a spoke to the hugo boss bank. I think this is wrong. Simple,ly is very ceo. He said they are gradually unfortunately so far the u. S. Seeing stores reopen. Has been denying it. A slight segue away from oil, though slightly belated. Secondly, the correct course of action, in my view, would have are you looking at overstretched Balance Sheets . Makest to let the. Sure that basically everyone stays safe, limit contact. Ironically, Energy Companies within 2, 3 weeks, we could knock this off. Gdp,irus does not follow interestings, very it does not follow the market. That jump is something investors have been looking at. Virus. Ust an alive it passes from host to host. Obviously, junk bonds have a lot of Energy Companies. Technically, the credit market will get a slowdown for a month are Going Companies harsh technically you will under pressure. Have a knockon effect in the if the governments around the world arent help through, there supply chain, so you will reduce mobile growth by one or two are soft loans and things like points. And i think at this point in that will come under pressure. But it will take time because the supply lines will work time, aggressive fiscal reply through. Will be better off. What they did in china, and it is small operators that will really be under pressure. Wuhan, you can build Emergency Hospital beds. Seen thehave certainly that would have been a smart thing to do with every government. Clearly it takes more time. Government very actively putting pressure. Outill see how that plays think affecting the interest for china. Rate is not what we need to do at this point in time. Tom can you picture a u. S. Bond julian, thank you very much. , Goldman Sachs warns under driving price up and the coronavirus out pick yelled down . Outbreak could push towards a learnedi think we have recession. When it comes to u. S. Government bond yields, to say no, the we will talk about the u. K. Next. This is the bloomberg. Level is not attainable, we are already at levels that six months ago we would have said this is bloomberg. Were beyond conception. So it certainly could happen. I think the scenario would be, in the u. S. , clearly the virus becomes more spread, that we start to see more cases, and then you start to worry even further about the impact in the shortterm term on u. S. Growth. So not to exclude, it certainly will depend on the effect of the measures to contain the virus right now. Guy thank you for joining us this morning. We really appreciate it. Davide serra. Daniel morris from bnp paribas Asset Management, he is going to stick around. Coming up, former ecb president jeanclaude trichet will join us with his assessment of the Federal Reserve. What does he think the ecb should do next . This is bloomberg. Anna you are watching bloomberg surveillance. Coronavirus affect the u. K. Economy . Goldman sachs says it will be pushed closer to recession there one of the banks forecasting a cut. Watchers has said the bank of england could follow the fed and make an emergency move for the emergency meeting. Anna, your expectations around what the bank of england does here . It is very likely they are viviana you are watching bloomberg surveillance. Going to cut. The biggest Domestic Airline in the u. K. Collapsing, flybe it is hard for them to wait much longer given them given the fed move. Workers, most will be dismissed. Its possible they will do it virusre from the kronos earlier. Of course, they have more the coronavirus giving the airline no breathing room. Cushion to go further, but not much room. For shortagesg the focus will be on fiscal across the u. S. Carriers in the u. K. And france. Olicy are already dealing with supply disruptions. The virus bringing in much of anna julian, your dictations chinese industry to a halt their it the factories that make for the fiscal side . Phones are looking to restart production. That is your Bloomberg Business this has to look nimble and flash. Targeted. Tom . Tom lets do a data check with one would hope they are a chart right now. We have been anticipating this. Concentrating on coming up with what we see is the twoyear policies that are helpful for yield raking down, as well as industries under pressure. Many other things breaking down as well. The two having year yield obviously, tourism is going to be badly hit. Breaking down. As well as other things breaking down as well. We are moving down to lower saw flooding yesterday there levels. We are not to a lower level yet. Are going to be airlines as what do we have, guys . Well. Its easy to see where they can guy we are trading right down direct firepower. At the bottom end of the range come as you can see heard 1. 35 . A cut postnsider yesterday was a big day, tom. Budget as well. Anna thank you both for your up, jeanclaude time this morning. Trichet, and jeffrey currie. Edp. G up, to the ceo of stay with us. This portuguese renewable in for a longen time. We see how the new rules change them. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Tom bloomberg surveillance. The markets are on the move. London, tom keene in new york. Anna opening up the taps yield goes down, the u. S. House passes nearly 8 price goes up. Is there a point where there is billion in emergency spending to youst a bubble, where fight the coronavirus crisis. The inf makes 50 billion available. Division in vienna agreements cannot own them . Over output cuts proves elusive continue to go for opecplus delegates as Oil Ministers look to counter the impact of the coronavirus. Down. At this point it is hard to use and turbulent conditions the word bubble when you look at flybe collapses, airbus what the outlook for growth is what we think is going to happen with inflation over the mediumterm and the lack of considers a production cut, and alternatives. United airlines trims its at this point we dont International Flights by up to 20 . Necessarily think bonds are wildly mispriced. We will focus in on the aviation sector later in the program. But i think it does reflect the i am anna edwards in london. Outlook we face today. Checking out European Equity yearwhat does the two markets, here are details with yield show . What is the belief of people emily horton. Emily all morning we have heard pricing the 2year note to across industries more companies perfection . Coming out talking about the i think we have seen impact of coronavirus. Continental, what they said, an this off and on over the last auto parts maker, they expect couple of years. Further declines. They will be exploring potential months, thet six cost cuts as opticals of the fed has projected it is going to be raising rates and that went coronavirus way on them. Interesting time, especially for away, so we still have this manufacturing, going through a disconnect between the two big restructuring plan. Markets. I tv down more than 9 . Uncertainty around how the tv network in the u. K. , that the virus is going to play out, company is seeing less advertising. Really from the travel sector, given that these travel we think it is pretty clear the Companies Want to defer as they fed would react. Over theasis points are going later in the year. And finally, senna world, down next meeting . Nearly 9 this money. After that . Coronavirusause of but also because of james bond daniel i think you would only films. The new film expected to come have that if things started to out, now being pushed to november. Move into a recession. It was going to be a big draw for these theaters. The concern is that given they anna that is going to change have already used 50 basis of the outcome the outlook for them. Ammunition, if you subsequently did see a bigger slowdown, it is going to be the same debate we now opec plus ministers are in are having now around the ecb, vienna as we established. What is left . Output thoughts on oil and the market price. Saudi arabia and russia are split over the prospect of the markets have kind of done deeper production cuts as coronavirus weakens Global Demand or lets talk about the qe4 them. Impact on the Energy Sector and qe for them. More broadly. We are joined by the ceo of energies de portugal, antonio numbers are you mexia. Pleased to have you with us. Watching for . Welcome to london. Ifm beginning to wonder let me ask you about coronavirus. What is it doing to your companies are going to be firing Strategic Planning . Is it making you rethink any of the things you were about to do . People, laying off temporary workers. Next . T what comes it just confirms what we are doing. Ofare focusing in terms it could come from the companies themselves or if you fightingility and look at previous pandemics, you had 15 absentee rates for some beente change, we have factories at the time, so not only do we have the supply shock in terms of might micro almost daily checking with our production, but also people being ill and not able to chain in europe. More than 90 say they are able consume or be paid if they go to work. Tom lets get right to our news with a commitment, and i right now. Think it is important. Our first word news. Offshorerame for solar viviana the senate is expected to approve 7. 8 billion in is not going to change. Anna as the crisis develops and emergency spending on the moves around the globe, do you coronavirus. Have confidence in the supply chain . Some parts might be relying on yesterday, the house passed the measure, providing more than stocks that are gradually triple the amount donald trump dwindling. Proposed. Antonio more than 50 of our growth is we have mainly japan will quarantine all travelers arriving from china and quarantine from china and local production, and even south korea. Supply as 93 of our Elizabeth Warren reportedly may abandon her camping for the , they have locally democratic residential nomination. Is lookingers camp guaranteed they will be able to deliver on time. Anna let me ask you about the to help according to the washington post. The two camps are looking for a Wind Energy Projects you have planned. Where is it still attractive to way to unite and push a common develop those projects . Liberal agenda. Renewable energy is the u. S. Supreme court chief Justice John Roberts issued a rare only way to clean up the planet. Solar are the most rebuke of Senate Democratic leader charles schumer. The chief justice chastised him competitive, so it is attractive everywhere because it is the for making what he called best solution, the only solution threatening statements about two for us to keep a balance between justices. Schumer told abortion rights man and the planet. And brett gorsuch so it is not a question of no longer a question of luxury. Kavanaugh would pay the price. It is a question of you need to do it. And basically we will be more global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Byn 80 Renewable Generation 2035, more than 90 by december tom thank you so much. 30. This is a key answer for climate it is a moment for central change. Bankers to find the courage. Annmarie we have already seen a they are in dialogue and all of lot of development for wind energy. That is still new sites to take cut after an emergency rate it vantage of . By the central bank of the United States. Of course. Lets listen to some recent central bankers. Solar has decreased its cost by this coronavirus could be 80 . More severe than we were wind by more than 50 offshore. Previously thinking. A great deal of uncertainty everywhere, from the about the lung to video of the outbreak about the activity states, into china, portugal, of the outbreak. Spain, poland. We are number three in the six or seven markets in the world. To ensure that the effects of what we see is basically this, the shock from the virus every day new potential in every continent because it is the only way really to do business. That growth this annmarie and you talk and can year under any scenario would be anna and you talk about below the level of last year. Reshuffling. What are your plans it will be temporary and we structurally . Antonio to the risk of the will get through this but the question is how severe is this portfolio, we have been focused on shortterm to cash going to be and how long is this going to last . Investments and the granularity, tom looking forward to seeing mr. Bailey take over as governor marked rates together with we of the bank of england. Aat will be a real not are moving basically from ,entralization into smart grids great change in tone but certainly a man of accomplishments. The banker who is an engineer, and wind and solar, so that is the movement that the company Jon Klein Trichet joins us wants to do. Jeanclaude trichet joins us. Anna speaking of shareholders, he is the former president of sex were recently sold in adp. The ecb. Stakes were recently sold ad. New supplyss the stakes were recently sold in a shifting worldwide and demand shifting worldwide. Which are you more concerned edp. About . Supply shocks or the demand it is questioning the shocks to come. First it is a market. Pleasure to be with you. What we are seeing today is an i would say the problem is we amazing performance easing, even have both the supply shock and with the exit rate shows that we the dower one now in the demand shock in the beginning one could have said perhaps it is on the supply shock, we can do nothing and jones index. We have been there for plus 11 years. Then lets wait for the on esgightly and finally coronavirus to be a limited and and sustainability, we are probably topping. Then we have a vshaped any do you have recovery. Importantly we see now, taking into account globalization, the reservations about having china as a shareholder . There have been some who have supply chain at a global level, raised concerns about this in all the consequences of the fear the u. S. That is accompanying this antonio no, because we have been dealing since the beginning and it is not news. They have been there for years, pandemic, we see the demand and they are always a full shock as well and we have both together at the global level and component of the u. S. Regulation this of course is something in we have been able to be decisions notr only by Central Banks but by all the last year here, top three, top four, in terms of new contracts. We fully comply with u. S. Departments without exception. Regulations and everything that i am a little bit annoyed that relates to communication and governance. We hear a lot from the g7, from anna have you had to have meetings around u. S. Regular regarding this topic . The industrialized countries. Andard nothing from the g20 antonio always. Anna it is nothing abnormal, we clearly have a global issue, though. Global problems with a lot of emerging countries being at the know, full transparency heart of the problem, including is what we need in this job. China. How far ahead of the pack it seems to me that has to be taken up at the global level. Do you feel that edp is at this i do this with great point . When you see other Energy Businesses pivoting away from respect for chairman powell and fossil fuels, wind, solar, and Christine Lagarde. Other energies . Should we have seen a coordinated response with antonio we started with chairman powell the other day . , and clearly we were a did they miss a moment by not linking together their actions . First mover, so i believe that i have experienced this is a good legacy. Against what is bad legacy elsewhere. And this means that we have pipeline peak, test pipeline, myself, coordinating action in october 2008. I have to say at the time, the people, reputation, scale, and drama was unfolding in a we have been flexible in the idea of also creating the opportunity for development virtuous manner. Reshuffling,lso an absolutet we had necessity to coordinate action crystallizing value. The Market Economics in five years will be totally different from what they are today, and so was something very natural. You need to be flexible in your i am not sure it was more portfolio. Appropriate in this time. It could have also had an impact anna and you think the market of panicking or giving the passion for everything esg, environmentally conscious message of too much of a panic. Stocks, will that be tested by a it is ok, what has been done is recession . Antonio there is no ok. I dont regret the coordination actions. Alternative. Guy jeanclaude trichet, one of because it is the only way, climate, everything tactical, everything related to a fair the arguments you put forward is position in society. It is critical. That other central bankers think everybody engaged in that cutting rates is a mistake. Direction is the only people could that be the case . That will be winners. Anna antonio, thank you for again, east each coming to see us. Edp or mexia, the ceo of central bank has its own lets get to the first word news responsibility. Update. For that we go to new york and there is no general rule to viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin with the 7. 8 apply to everybody. That is one of the problems of governance in europe as well as billion emergency spending bill passed by the house. The world, it is that the is in response to coronavirus outbreak, california recommendations are not the same declaring a state of emergency for all. At this stage i would say the to tackle the virus. In the u. S. , there have been 11 main problem seems to be to make deaths. Liquidity available to all, to this declaration, the global credit available to all and the outlook has darkened, and it comes from the International Monetary fund. It says uncertainty will remain supply of liquidity, more high because of the duration of of thent than the price the coronavirus outbreak. It remains unknown. The lender is making 50 billion Interest Rates themselves. The economies of available to help countries hit by the virus. This would allow countries to the countries concerned. Step into Financial Resources in europe we have introduced the idea of giving liquidity, giving immediately on emergency ground. Supply of liquidity without any countries can draw on this money limit. If they need it right away. That is still the case. For poor countries with zero Interest Rates. Ofiana we end with leaders but of course availability of turkey and russia meeting to try to smooth out relations. Standoff coming we, something which feel is most important in the present day. Amid tensions between syria and guy do you think the ecb would the countries have much be better to do to find some greater economic ties and in the past. Way of getting credit into the global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by supply chains . Bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in im than 120 countries, Andrew Bailey was talking about that, rather than cutting rates. Viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Anna thank you very much. Got would be a better way to coming up the then cutting another 10 bits off right . Jeanclaude i have no coronavirus outbreak leaves the recommendation to make to the ecb. Carrier with no other option. We will discuss the outlook for the company the company has decisionsemely wise it. That is next. This is bloomberg. Since the crisis and i have full confidence they will do what is appropriate but it is clear that the availability of credit will be something essential all over the world, whatever the level of Interest Rates. Tom one of the great debates we are seeing right now is the idea of disinflation or following on a greater inflation. Which way will price chain price change cut . Can you worry about inflation from another time and place . Jeanclaude it is the complexity of the situation which is illustrated by the fact itselfe supply shock transmits some kind of inflationary pressure. At the same time, the demand shock which is the demand shock which is a consequence of coronavirus has exactly the reverse opposite consequence. It is a very complicated story but it is clear that the supply shock element has inflationary potential. Years sittingfive at 1 , a low for the last five years. Jeanclaude trichet, former ecb president , he is going to stay with us. This is bloomberg. Anna you are watching bloomberg surveillance. I ossa has warned that coronavirus could cost 30 billion in lost revenue this year. Flybe has gone into losingtration after talks on government bailouts. The company has ceased to trade and is no longer able to fly or take bookings. Is and julians shallow chillingworth stays with us. Talking about the coronavirus in the ok, this is very much a you care airline, isnt it . Before we were talking about that, this was a company in trouble. What we are seeing is the coronavirus has drawn back. They were already in trouble. They had already had help in january. The government seemed receptive to helping them out with some extra measures in the budget. And then what we were hearing is that was no longer on the table. I think partly because of the coronavirus, but also being it being about inevitable. It is very hard to make enough guy guy johnson in london. Money on the original route. Anna and because of the tom keene in new york. Regional development, there was a sense that the government would bail out this business. That failed. Jeanclaude trichet, former ecb charlotte that was certainly president and Daniel Morris of the sense you would get, and it bnp paribas are still with us. Probably is true that the coronavirus is one of the things changing. Into that we were talking about the supply chain shocks we are going to be experiencing. I think also back in january, how quickly do you think there was a backlash on the stressed companies in the environmental side of things. Eurozone are going to be experiencing problems . We had people questioning how you can bail out and airline how quickly do you think bad loans are going to start to pick up . While trying to commit to the jeanclaude i think of course targets to cut co2 emissions. Nobody knows exactly what is difficult positions likely to be the dynamic of the that the prime ministers are in phenomenon but it is clear that in terms of being a conservative it is unfolding and it would be where you would not normally of a duration which might be bail out private companies. Anna this is coming on top of the pacific the specific much more what we think or what we thought at the beginning. Business with other concerns, that is the reason why i make but for the aviation sector as a the point that it is important whole, it has been at the forefront of the early impact, that credit remains available. The early onset of the i would make the point also that coronavirus effect. How do you go about setting the we are already discussing the beforepeaceful weaponry prospects for aviation . The coronavirus exploded and anna well, i think this is fiscal weaponry is very modern. Perhaps an excuse, coronavirus i am happy to see that in the is an excuse not just for aviation but for other u. S. , the house of strategists to downgrade because representatives has decided to the environment is such as embark on some action precisely to deal with the coronavirus. Climate change come of her in europe it is absolute example. That is weighing on aviation and necessary, also because there are some room for maneuvering on it is very interesting. The fiscal side. It is going to be interesting to see whether we will get permanent changes in behavior from consumers and from Companies Falling into the tom go ahead. Shock. And maybe we do not need to continue. Guy lets get Daniel Morriss travel so much for business. We can do videoconferencing and take on this. Work from home. Do you think fiscal policy will come quickly enough to be able and actually the flip side of startrus is that we might to avoid fallen angels . Daniel this is always the demo behaving in a more climate will make when it comes to friendly way. Anna it could be a positive fiscal stimulus. Climate effect. Julian, when you look at the aviation sector, there will be 700 billion dollars was ultimately spent to support the the weaker and the stronger elements. Economy but by the time it hits any time the aviation sector in a company or household, it is comes up against a headwind, the well after it was actually needed. Stronger ones talk about how you it is certainly helpful but is are going to see failures in it going to be enough in the shortterm . Business elsewhere. Is it going to arrive soon i think the iag ceo is saying enough . You have reason to be concerned. Trichet, who they need government support. How do you assess the prospects for this sector . Julian i would agree that Climate Change is a headwind you worked with at the european that is not going away, and putting the coronavirus to one central bank speaks of what Everybody Knows is the backstory side. Hink peoples view travel and that is a global misallocation of capital because about travel will change, and all of these oddities, these people will use trains more. I think that that is going to be disincentives within the yield market. How misallocated are we right a grand phenomenon as well. Now . Throughout my career i have been very dubious about owning jeanclaude i certainly share the view that we had accumulated airlines for stock. With all that has happened in , we had piled up debt, the last few weeks, it confirms the high operating leverage and outstanding to an extent that the unpredictability of external has been scandalous. Events on the sector. I think that is going to whatever the trigger, continue. Coronavirus or any other anna the vulnerabilities are trigger, we have the potential problem of dealing with a there. How has the sector been hit, is very large charlotte, so far . We have seen at the forefront it fell off as a sector, on days and has continued after the crisis. Where the market is nervous about coronavirus, we have seen there is undoubtedly an issue it fall. Are there any particular would also call for airlines to keep an eye on . Charlotte already in the past a global response. 24 hours we have had united saying that they are cutting domestically and internationally. That is a real issue, a real they have approved a hiring freeze. They are encouraging staff to functional issue and of course take unpaid leave, if that is we have to live with the situation as it is and certainly to do the best out of the something they are able to do. Pretty severe impact present situation which is very dedicated very delicate and we had a conference this week again i would say, the central where a lot of the airline ceos banks are pillars of stability, it is a good sign. Anchors of stability, in a world that is extraordinarily volatile and unstable and that is the could meann it reason why it seems more important and then never that the authority of the central bank is fully preserved which is longerterm impact for the industry. Anna what do you look at for recovery from coronavirus . Not necessarily the case even in it is early to try and gauge the u. S. , when i see some tweets that, but interestingly, i asset they may recover coming from the chief of the executive branch that seems to ofto be propagating in terms in the Third Quarter. I suppose that would seem like a sensible time horizon, talking tom the economist donald trump about the trajectory of spread, ramping up for two or three im sure is listening to this very carefully right now. Months, then fading away for two or three months. Maybe Third Quarter rebound . A creativeook for destruction of this debt we have anna judging what we know so created . Far, we are not going to see a what is the best outcome for President Trump and other world vshaped recovery. Leaders . How do we get away from, how do q1 is not going to be the worst quarter. We extricate ourselves from this misallocation . The data will lift off and we will see some recovery, but it you have to cope depends on how the virus will with a crisis which is unfolding spread, and then very importantly, it is not just the right now. Virus and the number of cases, it is what measures are being and you have medium long term language and to sum theoyed to prevent up, i would say all economies in infection from spreading. The world and at the level of the Global Economy and the and another thing that we Talk International community as a whole, we should give privilege to equity and not as we did about his pentup demand. Once we see a recovery, people that there is a will start consuming more, etc. I believe that is reasonable to preference of debt over equity assume, with durable goods, which is generalized that we see in the deficits of the states, flows, but for services and and the public deficits everywhere that we also see in activities, it is different. For example, people might miss taxation which is privileging debt over equity, which is the Easter Holiday and then go stupid of course an extremely on another holiday, but they will not go on two holidays dangerous. Tom who can initiate this because of the time constraint. We are seeing a permanent demand seismic change from a focus on debt to fixed income instruments over to the risk of equity . Construction and services. Say the ifi i would demand destruction and services. In services. , the International Fund anna thank you very much for to have ans are key your thoughts. Thank you very much to ,trong message that would be charlotte. And juliantska listen at the global level and chillingworth. Of course we have to get a coming up on the program, is fed policy in the right place to consensus amongst the major , the u. S. And of face up to the challenge in coronavirus . James bullock says yes. Our exclusive interview with course china, to understand that we are not doing any good if we Kathleen Hays is next. This is bloomberg. Continue to buy the debt. Tom president trichet, thank you so much. Jeanclaude trichet is the former president of the ecb. Daniel morris with us and he has been patient. We will come back to mr. Morrison a little bit. Discussion, a timely with the world bank of canada. This is bloomberg. The opec conference and the eight meetings, the meeting has immenseace, a day of significance in the history of opec. Exactly 45 years ago, between the fourth and the sixth of march, 1975, my own country, algeria, hosted the first opec summit, to give it the correct title, the conference of guy guy johnson in london, tom sovereign and head of state of opec member countries. Inductionted in the keene in new york. Daniel morris of bnp paribas is of the organizations still with us. Lets rip on jeanclaude declaration, and it constitutes trichet. The origin of the establishment of our sister organization, expensivee from very known initially as the opec bonds into more cheap equity . Special fund. Daniel that still seems like a later as the opec fund for international development. It does seem quite expensive which has contributed things and nohen contributing nonetheless with equities, i would not con them cheap i less than 34 countries in energy, transportation, would not call them cheap. Andculture, water, aerage valuations and from education. Anna this is bloomberg surveillance. Youre looking at multiasset portfolio, i think it makes sense. Tom Daniel Morris, thank you so life pictures coming from much of thank you so much for vienna. The opec images from being with us today as we have listened to jeanclaude trichet. What you need to know right now gathering. Opec is meeting in an effort to bridge the saudirussia divide. Is news on the coronavirus. Viviana hurtado will have updates on this throughout the the group is discussing its next hour but the news is response to the crude price slump that we have seen due to tangible and it is global. The virus. With prices at the we will fold that into our market response and reaction after the large equity day yesterday. Moment, we have got oil prices howard ward of Gabelli Funds up by. 1 at 51. 19. Will join us. Timeterm investment in a losing a little bit of the momentum that we saw a early on. Of this turmoil. Much more, we will be talking to 51. 19 is where we trade on our reporters around the world about the day ahead and what you need to know that includes a new brent, 46. 80 four is where we bout of trade on wti. Lets check the markets more broadly. Started with a balance at the start of the trading day. Please stay with us through the morning. If youif you want to factor in optimism globally, fiscal stay with us. This is bloomberg. Stimulus with the spending bill to the value of 8 billion, we have heard from the world bank and the imf as well. Some of the early optimism now being unwound. When you move homes, you move more than just yourself. The californian decoration declaration of emergency, futures take the lead as you would expect this time of day in the u. S. Europe is just following suit. This is bloomberg. Thats why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Saysthis morning, the cdc quote, use your judgment in deciding who will be tested for the virus. Cities decide schools should be closed. Will use his tom this morning the cdc says, use your judgment, in deciding judgment and not travel to japan. Use their, the who has tested for the virus. Ofi there is judgment and an airline collapses. Canada. Come, including apple up 7 . Gabelli in this hour. The new per the new permanence. This is bloomberg surveillance from our World Headquarters in new york and london. Guy johnson in for Francine Lacqua. Guy, you were just in brussels. I love your British Airways interview. For the Airline Business . Guy we have seen flybe going under. It was a Retail Airline in the u. K. Its Balance Sheet was simply not up to the task despite the fact that virgin came in and tried to give them some support. If airlines, the big five that i was talking to like ryanair, these Balance Sheets are much stronger than they ever have been. It is a similar story over in the United States. The unitedon in states has provided that strength in a way that wasnt there during 9 11, during the financial crisis. They are michael they are likely in much better shape. Somei know i have seen news from united and jetblue in the last few hours. Right now, our first word news. Here is viviana hurtado. Viviana trump around the world, countries are tramp are tightening travel restrictions to contain coronavirus. Japan will quarantine all people arriving from china and south korea. Australia has added south korea to its banned list. Hill the u. S. House approving 7. 8 billion to fight the virus. Opec and its allies found themselves stuck again. Saudi arabia and russia are split over making bigger cuts in Oil Production. The coronavirus has hampered the oil market. Prices are down more than 20 since the start of the year. The saudis want to cut 1. 5 Million Barrels a day but russia wants to maintain production at current levels. The road to the democratic president ial nomination has gotten tougher for Bernie Sanders. The next primaries are where joe ,iden is poised to do well florida, michigan and ohio. Mr. Biden is in a strong position to pull away after winning big on super tuesday. He also picked up the endorsement of Michael Bloomberg who dropped out of the race. Mr. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, which is the owner of bloomberg news. Leaders of russia and turkey are trying to patch things up. They meet today in moscow. Their summit comes days after deadly fighting between turkey and russian backed syrian forces. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom lets look at the data right now before we get to mr. Ward. Dow, down 441 points right now. No clue where we will be at 4 00 this afternoon. Closed 27,100 and the two year yield really making a go. Lower yields on the twoyear. Tenyear is down nine basis points right now. European stocks are at session lows. Very much under pressure. The euro is catching a bit of a save on offer, so bouncing off of that on hundred 11 level and brent on offer once again, down by 3 10 of 1 . We continue to monitor what opec plus is going to do. Tom what we are trying to do each day is give you perspective of leaders with perspective and that would be howard ward of gabelli. Lets go to the chart and this is the chart that howard ward would never look at. It is a shortterm chart. Upe is the bottom, we come and we are now nicely above a correction level on the dow. Perspective is needed. You said you have been quiet. When can you useh to quire shares again . Howard this market has had a lot of technical district technical destruction. In three days it blew through its 90 Day Moving Average as you but typically when you have this much damage done to the market, it takes a while for it to recover and i am talking weeks if not months before you get a real recovery. The problem right now is in trying to value stocks, there is uncertainty as to what the earnings level will be. He went into this year looking for 175 of earnings. They are cut now and some people are back to flat earnings. That,t a 17 multiple on 2800 on the s p, this virus continues to grow and spread and numbers will go down. Negative earnings and falling pmis and widening credit actuallystocks could be down 20 . That is probably not your base case but your base case is probably lower. I dont see the upside to jumping into the market right now. It has been my experience and 42 years on wall street that rushing back into markets has this kind of swift substantial decline and is usually in the state. If you are a longterm investor and i mean longterm, you can begin to lay layer your money into the market. Rationalize layering in based off of the stream you get along the way, along the turmoil of the virus . You can but you have to take the context of this is going to get substantially worse and i dont mean to spread panic, i am just saying if you listen to the experts on infectious diseases, this is extremely early innings and as pointed out just a minute ago, Business Travel was being curtailed. Companies are canceling events. We canceled an event next month in new york for about 100 people. I am on the board of a charity. We canceled a trip further about for about 30 doctors who were going to do emergency surgery on children for two reasons, fear that they would not be able to get back into this country but also in the hospital where they are operating, there is already a case of coronavirus. Things are shutting down slowly but surely. Schools which are now being closed are sorting to close here. It is early innings and i would be patient. Patience is a virtue right now. Guy good morning. Equity markets have been supportive over the last for years because investors believe in the fed put. Is the fed put still active . Is the fed put going to work . Howard this is a great question. First of all the emergency rate cut that the fed had 50 basis points, that was like throwing a hail mary on the opening drive of a football game. Why do that now . If this is the bottom of the first inning, why do that now . Me, the fed message was a bit of a panic and of course we all know that the day the fed cut, as the fed was speaking the market collapsed. I would have held off on that. Y know more about that us they more of they know more about this than i do. It may be important to have that ammunition further down the road. Here we are not even a week since the fed cut. The market is already pricing in two more cuts. Another thing which i failed to mention, the fed cut a bit of a couple hours after trump was berating the fed for not cutting and i dont like the optics of that, whether they truly needed to cut or not. Guy you bring up trump as we are heading towards an election in november. Do you think the u. S. Is going to have a recession this year . Howard you look at the bond market and record low yields, yields were at record lows when the fed cut. Further recordto lows since then. The bond market seems to be concerned about a recession. Windt spreads have been but the widening is there and gdp growth could be zero for the First Six Months of this year and it would not take a heck of a lot to tilt those forecasts negative. Recession watches on the radar screen but i think the talk about that is going to become much more widely held over the next few weeks. Tom howard ward is with us of Gabelli Funds. Have a couple emails asking howard about apple computer. Right now there is a meeting moment for the world. Turkey and russia. Mr. Erdogan meeting with mr. Pruden at the kremlin with mr. Pruden with mr. Putin at the kremlin. Needless to say a historic moment. Guy . Guy a little later on today, we will get back to that conversation surrounding the fed. The conversation with Robert Kaplan at 5 30 p. M. In new york and 10 00 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Guy guy johnson in london, tom keene in new york. Some headlines coming out of opec, delegates forecasting opec is going to be cutting by 4. 5 Million Barrels a day. Did see an initial spike higher. The initial spike faded relatively quickly. We are back into positive territory but the markets concluding that 1. 5 million may not be enough given the demand story we have been talking about drought this program. Joint rey currie of of Goldman Sachs is joining bloomberg later this morning. We look forward to that in the 7 00 hour. Futures are 55 as well. We will get back to howard ward of gabelli in just a bit. Right now in washington, looking at the linkage of all affixed to virology. Mr. Fitzpatrick could join us today. It must be something to watch medicine buttress up against politics. What is the body language of the politicians if they all become epidemiologists overnight . To understand the medical questions around this virus and then put it into action in congress is clearly a challenge for lawmakers. The body language at this point is showing some confusion and concern about where exactly this goes. The information getting to capitol hill on the exact number of cases in the u. S. Is a concern. Information on exactly how many tests are being done is a concern. We have heard that we are up to 11 deaths in the u. S. If we are talking about Something Like a 2 fatality rate, which was in the range that was considered and expected, then the hundred or so cases that are known right now would seem particularly low. Lawmakers are looking for more information. They are giving the government more money. The house just passed an 8 billion bill and the senate is expected to pass it today but a lot of the lawmakers i have talked to have said we dont know if something will be necessarily another piece of legislation a few weeks down the road. There is a lot of confusion right now. The governor in california asked caught the governor in california declaring a state of emergency. Are we expecting other states to follow suit . Jack we dont know how other states are going to respond to that because outside of states that were affected early like california or washington, the internal spread is another unknown. Tom i dont mean to interrupt but guys question is brilliant. Wind is the president of the United States declare a state of emergency . What is the lineup to get the Trump Administration to equate to what the governor was doing . Jack that is an area where certain things have been left to the states. Even schools closures being handled at a local level, there is not a people stance logged working from home or staying out of their offices. There are a lot of facets of the response that are being left to states and local governments that continues to be a significant focus, allowing simplex ability. Tom federalism and the study of urology. Jack fitzpatrick, thank you so much. Watching all of this and you heard howard ward voice and interest in this. Of a sudden, everyone is a virologist. I guess the idea for you is the opportunity of it like with Health Care Stocks doing so well yesterday. Ward on the opportunity in Health Care Stocks and United Health care. Howard United Health care is the premier provider of Health Care Insurance and other medical Services Nationwide and the stock is only up 10 over the last year. This is a Company Whose earnings are relative are routinely higher. In the teens or there were fears about Bernie Sanders becoming president and then becoming abolished under the medicare for all plan. It is looking as if it is not going to happen so you had an enormous rally in that stock yesterday. Buy, it isck i would one we own in Gabelli Funds. I like that one. There other opera elsewhere there are other opportunities. Some stocks like bristolmyers which is reasonably valued. I think mark is reasonably valued merck is reasonably valued. There are some issues but i think overall, health care is a pretty good place to be. Howard, how do you think the government is going to deal with uninsured people in it comes to the coronavirus . How will that feed into the Health Care Sector because if they dont get treatment, the virus is going to spread more quickly. Howard they have to cover that. This is ridiculous that we are even having the conversation. There is athat, tremendous shortage of the coronavirus test kits in this country. A lot of people are probably carrying this virus and dont know it. There are many stories of people going to their local hospital with symptoms of the virus, asking to be tested and they are being sent home because the hospitals dont have the test kits. This has to be ramped up. Im sure it is in progress but we need millions and millions more of these test kits so we can determine how many people actually have the virus and then take steps to quarantine them. Tom we will come back to howard ward. We are watching yield as well. David westin in balance of power, an interesting and timely discussion on next tuesdays primaries. Jeff merkley with david westin. Look for that in the noon hour. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to your Bloomberg Business flash. Airline in the u. K. Has collapsed. Flybe and most of its workers will be dismissed. Pressure from the coronavirus outbreak gave the company no breathing room. A u. S. House committee blasting wells fargo for its government they said neither did enough to prevent customer abuses. Wells fargo suffering a number of consumer scandals in recent years. One involves employees creating fake customer accounts. Tom a transaction note on technology, buffeted by the virus and much more. It comes out of california. Walksno Uncertain Terms away from the xerox deal. They suggest a react a rejection of the unsolicited thecer by 0 of unsolicited offer by xerox. That will come up later. Howard ward quickly on hpxerox. Are you part of this play . Howard not at all. Tom to small, too confused . Howard i like stocks that are traditionally growing in these companies have had a hard time for years. Hp is getting its act together. Tom a lot more coming up. That important interview with the executive from hp coming up as well. Jeffrey currie of Goldman Sachs, guy johnson had those headlines on oil and a reduction in price. West texas intermediate, we are also looking at yield this morning as well. 6170. R yield the 10 year yield coming in nine basis points as well. A fragile take against futures. Stay with us. Coming up, howard ward on the equity markets. This is bloomberg. Good morning oh no, here comes the neighbor probably to brag about how amazing his Xfinity Customer Service is. Im mike, im so busy. Good thing xfinity has twohour appointment windows. They have night and weekend appointments too. Hes here. Bill . Karolyn . Nope no, just a couple of rocks. Download the my account app to manage your appointments making todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Ill pass. Tom bloomberg surveillance, another extraordinary day including an airline in the united kingdom. What has amazed me the most is the love tons a announcement theyve the luftansa announcement they would suspend flights to china into april. Tom i think most people guy i think most people will take that stance. In some ways it is an opportunity, some of these airlines were stressed in terms engine problems and other issues as well and they are planes some of these through the shops and making a virtue out of a difficult situation. Tom yield coming in at 6. 1 percent. We will get an update. Three bloomberg terminals. When he comes on in the morning, and howard ward with us from Gabelli Funds. Luke i want to go to you first. We have never seen yield like that. What do you observe in equity dynamics off of the new low yield regime . Luke what has been interesting is how volatile Global Equities have been in response to sinking yield. The s p 500 was more volatile over the past week and we now only have three sessions in the history of mark in the history of the markets for the s p is up 4 and the s p low volatility underperformed. For me it has been very interesting and very weird to see this part of the market reacting and getting the same kind of risk on, risk off treatment you see everywhere else. Tom howard your shortterm is three years. That volatility, how do you translate into confidence to own equities . Howard people are rushing to get defenses. Trading has been a good place to be the last two years. Defensive oriented stocks have outperformed over the past couple of years. I think that people still need to look at the overall metrics of the s p, earnings expectations, what is the appropriate multiple and as i mentioned earlier, it is hard to price in shortterm upside except when we are looking at individual stocks. Think of theyou credit markets right now . Everybody i am talking to is telling me this is the place to watch in terms of where the stress is going to show up. Seen double b and triple b widening out a little bit more. What are we expecting over the next couple of days in terms of what those markets are going to tell us . Are we going to start seeing more stressors showing up . Luke this is the place to watch. One thing we deftly want to keep on keep an island is looking , yourery shortterm twoyear double b discretionary spread. Ago were at 12013 sessions they were at 120 13 sessions ago. Yield at these levels, still a little below 3 on your twoyear double b all in. It doesnt look like the price is screaming stress but the thing to watch will be more access to credit. We kind of all know there is going to be whatever whenever the cycle ends, a rush to the exits. Howard ward of Gabelli Funds and bloombergs luke kawan are all going to join are going to stay with us. That theyeing said found one coronavirus case at its London Research arm. Banks here in london and in europe and the United States are examining ways to split their teams up and put them off site in order to get an understanding of what is happening. We will see what happens ultimately. Hsbc has found one coronavirus case in london. Tom guy johnson, thank you so much. We will get back to mr. Kawan and mr. Ward. We know people want to hear howard wards thoughts on apple computers. If you go up the road from washington street, it is a font of accounting excellence. Tim ryan came out of that combine years ago and has risen to be chair u. S. And senior partner for pwc and joins us with a brief this morning. What i love about you being here is not the consultancy. You have hard financial acumen as well. Now, theorld right financial responsibilities of the executives in dealing with this virus, how will that play out . We are dealing with a very unique time. We have talked to our clients and ceos and the biggest focus has been on people and making sure people are safe and that they have the right tools in place. The other big thing on their minds is business continuity, making sure there are plans in place, making sure customers are the focus. Then they are looking at how to make sure they stay safe financially. Guy what is tom what is the use of cash here . Will we see a big change in howard wards world . Shift . Tal expenditures at this point it is too early to tell. We are dealing with something we have not seen before. We are seeing societal uncertainty. It is too early to tell. Years,t several investing technology, managing cost structure, in many ways they have been getting ready for Something Like this but when you look at demand, certain behavior, it is too early to tell. Guy good morning. Can you give us a sentiment of what is happening and supply chains right now . What is happening to companies that have extended supply chains that reach around the world . A very good point. When you look at what we have at this point, the supply chain is something clients have been focused on since the outbreak in china. The planning has already been in place, so they are looking to make sure the opportunity that started a bit with the trade wars, it is important to point out the reliance on china is very significant so it is not simply unplug and move somewhere else. This is one of the reasons we have uncertainty because it does take a while to run down the supply chain and when this does get resolved, if it take a while to get that supply chain back up and running. Guy southwest cutting q1 unit outlook. Companies deciding they are going to restrict travel. They are not going to let their ofple fly around as a result what is happening with the coronavirus. What effect do you think that is going to have . What impact is there going to be as people are not quarantined but restricted in their ability to do business . That goes back to my first point of Companies Making sure theyre doing the right thing, that were seeing dozens of companies were in say nonessential internal travel, stop that and be safe right now. Leveraging technology they have made investments in, in the past, working remotely and finding ways to do things. Without a doubt that will have an impact on businesses and travel. Tom are you guessing more consolidation . Gloomy earlierty on the view of how you buy the dip or dont. Does that lead consolidation . Tim it is possible. Some companies have done a great job in managing their cost structure and leveraging technology. It will give them a buffer. Others have not done such a great job and that would make them likely prospects for an alternative. Tom i want to talk about your people. About pwc andtalk how you are deploying care and safety for employees this morning. Tim it is paramount to everything we do. What we did at the beginning is we restricted all nonessential travel. We put in additional procedures of safety and cleanliness and for the last several years we have been investing significantly in technology and upscaling. Tom i go back to yahoo a couple years ago. As working from home work . Youve got men and women monitoring this, does working from home actually work . Tim we believe that is the case. Tom why does it work . Tim with technology and collaboration, we can get work done. We can get to this talent. It can work very well. Tom i would say sometimes it works with london very well. But it dependsk what type of job you do. Some jobs are less suited than others. We are going to see the claims number coming out in the United States. Do you think companies are going to be laying people off . You think theyre going to put them on shortterm short time . Tim you raise an important point. This is going to be a test for companies. There is going to be a test because it is safe to say there is going to be a shortterm debt and the question is what do people do with their people . It is likely you will see pressure on jobs. Tom weve got too much hockey on this desk. And thethe bruins rangers, too much hockey. The bruins are doing ok this season. Too much hockey and not enough canadian stanley cups. Canada, theg of gentleman from canada later with bloomberg, about 1 00 this afternoon. We say thank you to mr. Ryan of pwc. Kaplan will link not only his knowledge on the rate cut but Robert Kaplan on the state of business that they see in texas. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. The hsbc headline again. What was that news out of hsbc . Guy they have found one case. There was some earlier speculation they were seeing evacuations. That has not been confirmed. A confirmed case has now been reported. It was only a matter of time to be honest. People come in and out on a daily basis. Tom yields lower but stable. With us and mr. Ward with us. Lets bring up a shortterm chart. Here is the chart from yell university. This goes back from yale university. Showsa chart that whatever disaster there is, every virus, things are difficult. That was the worst moment of world war ii and you have 47 excuses to go to cash. The proxy for this mr. Ward is apple computer. Everybody wants to know. What is your update on a stock you have been in for years . Howard apple surprised everybody. It had a return of 90 to 100 last year. All of that return was multiple expansion. There revenue did not increase. Revenue did not increase. Now we are in an environment where multiples are contracting. Credit spreads are widening and multiples are contracting and earnings estimates are coming down. Apples supply chain is challenged. They already told you they are not going to make their numbers. Wasstock goes the stock up 100 yearoveryear. I would not buy it here. If the market does retreat and i think it is going to be rocky, you will have a lower price and the longterm outlook remains very positive but again, patience is a virtue. Guy do you think we are going to see problems with some of the key iphone prices . You see the supply chain story may limit that but we could see impacts further down the road and later in the year as well. How important are these phones in terms of the numbers for this year . Howard i think the big part of the year for them is going to be that september timeframe, if they have to push out the anticipated 5g phone from a september timeframe then the numbers will flow into the next fiscal year, so somewhat important. The market understands this is not an apple unique product problem but it does not change my conclusion because if multiples contract, there multiple will contract as well. Going to writeou about today . Luke i do think more about local ability stocks, definitely something that is going to be on my mind, probably going to be reading things about the great trades. Turning to see people, maybe the bottom of the market and how do you kind of take advantage of that . Vix. 35. 99 on the luke still pretty extreme but the most notable thing that has happened in the vix curve is that you see amazing ebbing of the risk premium. Have you looked at the vix in the last 24 years . Howard twice but i am looking at my screen and when youre looking at more defensive names in the market, there up 6 and monday, this aint normal. This aint normal. Tom this is wonderful to have you. Luke kawa and howard ward with us with the same message. Right now we want to listen to the former president of the ecb. Nclaude taking into account the Global Supply chain, all the consequences of the fear that is accompanying this pandemic, we see that there is a at shock and we have the global level and this is something that calls for corporate decisions not only by Central Banks but by all departments without exception. Only a matter of determination. Discuss and find find ao help the market way to balance the situation. Guy we have learned that opec is going to cut 1. 5 Million Barrels a day. Is that going to be enough to balance the Oil Market Given the demand shock we saw . Tell us what we need to know about what opec has decided . All, there is no decision thus far. They come back together for opec plus. This is about a cohesive reaction i everybody and that number of 1. 5 Million Barrels, i to i have spoken that is a very lofty ambitious number. The size of that 1. 5 million pain are themuch russians prepared to endure . Ago, a fast market in the intelligent Government Bond market. There was a fast market in expectations on this size and scale and the confidence is going to take to really shore up this market. Its about a cut but it is about the credibility of the cut. The fear for opec has to be does any cut they deliver help out the u. S. Shale producers . Theyat the worry, that if cut collectively, theyre going to sustain output from the United States . Not often they come to that conclusion, they are not very bothered by shale. Theconsensus seems to be top of shale for 2020, i think this is about the preservation of the status quo. Up in 2016 to be a swing almond or producer eter producer . Dantes inferno . You dont need to go too far back to get yourself back to 2016, 30. The view at opec of what coronavirus is going to do to demand . Implode. Quite literally. Thing i caught up with a Nigerian Oil Minister this uae. Ng who walked at the they will not live they will not leave here without a deal. That seems to be the growing rhetoric being used and to that end, this is about getting a deal to preserve the union. Everybody has a little bit of face at the end. 1. 5 million is the current print on the bloomberg. You can be sure that is on the table. The question is how do you split up the pie of pain . Cranny in vienna at the opec meeting. Lets tick a quick look at where we are right now lets take a quick look at the at where we are right now with the numbers. The s p was up over 4 yesterday but at the moment, the calculation suggests we will be negative 2. 3 or 2. 4. Currently we have a situation in europe where equity markets are very close to session lows. The ftse 100 is down. The spanish market is down by over 2 right now. The s p is under pressure and it looks like wall street is going to open significantly lower after yesterdays very substantial jump. Do not miss a conversation later on with the dallas fed president. Robert kaplan will be joining bloomberg 5 30 p. M. In new york. My conversation will take place at 10 30 p. M. In london. You dont want to miss it. Central banks front and center. The First Responders to a financial crisis. The effects of their actions. Thank you very much. This is bloomberg. Alix unleashing fiscal stimulus. Asian nations pledge spending measures, and the u. S. Has a representative as profit warnings meant for investors. U. S. 10 year yield trades below 1 . Bunds flirt with record lows. In the oil standoff. Russia and opec faceoff yet again. Saudi arabia delegates push for deep Oil Production deep cuts to Oil Production. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak. Im alix steel. S p futures off by almost 1 . You are seeing a flight into safe havens. In the currency market, the yen is the outperform or. The outperformer. Yields down by about eight basis points, on