We went to a bull steepener from a bear steepener. Time never global exchange. We bring you todays market moving news from all around the world. Joining us from hong kongs frombergs karen leigh, mumbai are bloomberg executive producer, and Michael Mckee is in washington. We want to kick it off in hong kong, where chief executive carrie lam invoked Emergency Powers and banned facemasks as protests continue. Not an easyis decision to legislate to ban the masks, but given the Current Situation in hong kong, this is a necessary decision. Alix karen leigh has more. Whats been the response . Not a great response from protesters. People are gathering in the city center as we speak. They started gathering while carrie lam was still speaking. People worried this would give police power to go and arrest people, search without a warrant , and in an extreme situation, shut down the internet. It has a huge potential to impact life here. It is something people are upset about. It could fuel protester anger. There are protests planned for saturday and sunday. We will be watching to see whether this is someone that makes people angry and trusts the police and government less, or scares them into staying home, and he government achieves what it wants. Alix so far, no one is staying home. Alive shot thereof hong kong. Thank you so much for that update. Now to india come over the central bank pledges further using, cutting rates for the fifth time in a row. Harsha, what did we learn from the central bank . They cut unexpected lines. Growth has been slowing in this country to below 6 in fiscal 2019. Languishings been below the mediumterm target for over a year now. That has given the bank of india enough space to going with what theyve done today. They will make an apology make an accommodative policy stance as long as it is necessary. Arquette response has been quite tepid because they were anticipating a much sharper cut. Their view is this is not enough. Alix thank you very much. London, it is the countdown to brexit. Eu chiefs have reportedly set a deadline of dead week of one week for Boris Johnson and the u. K. Government offer their proposal. Where are we in the brexit talks . Reporter frantic negotiations before a very tight deadline. David frost is in brussels today, and Boris Johnson mako to the European Capital this weekend in an effort to seal the deal, but both sides are as far apart as ever, particularly over the issue of ireland, the border. Boris johnson wants to keep ireland out of the eu customs union, but within the Single Market for goods. The question is what happens to open checks on the border. Ireland is dead against these proposals. Question is how they will get to a compromise, possibly a timelimited backstop for northern ireland, but time is short, and both sides will have to reach a compromise on this. Alix thank you very much. We are looking at a tale of two tech stories today. Alex webb joins us in london with the news on hp. Alex hp, the legacy business of hewlettpackard printers and computers, has been the Success Story since splitting off of hewlettpackard enterprise a few years ago. Today theyve announced 7000 to 9000 job cuts, about 16 of the total workforce. They are starting to face a few more headwinds in particularly the printer business. To boost the free cash flow, they are trying to get ahead of the story because the new ceo coming in starts november 1. A little further up silicon valley, apple, the nikkei is reporting, iphone components are 10 higher than expected. That coulddude be good news for apple. We dont know if it is just a few suppliers whether really it is indicative of consumer demand. Either way, it is not bad news, and indicates that they might be a little more optimistic than anticipated. Alix thank you so much. In the u. S. , investors focusing on the latest jobs report and expecting a rise in payrolls of about 145,000. Birds Michael Mckee is here bloombergs Michael Mckee has more. Michael its not really the jobs number that matters. Its how that number compares with what wall street is expecting. You take a look at the bloomberg terminal here, and you can see that for the past year, weve been up and down, but we have now entered the red zone, an in jobere we seen misses creation at a significant level. Anything like that today would really set markets off. Investors want the blue line there, the bloomberg consensus survey, to be the number, or to have some thing better than that. If you dont, we are going to have a lot of complaints about where the economy is going. The ironic thing is we expect the economy to create fewer jobs now because we are very deep into the expansion, and also we may be running out of workers, but that is not going to matter on wall street, where it is all about is the economy slowing down, and ratification for that is going to be that headline number. Alix thank you. Another story we are watching are the developers in the impeachment inquiry into President Trump and the ukraine. Late yesterday, House Democrats released documents that showed two top diplomats tried to make a deal on the president s behalf with ukraine to investigate former Vice President joe biden and his son. Ukraine refused to make the statement that deponents wanted. Watching that throughout the day. Coming up, much more on the trade and analysis into dates first take in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for bloomberg first take. Inhouse team our of wall street veterans and experts, carl riccadonna, gina martin adams, and constance chief economist. Obviously, the first take is going to be all about jobs. Carl, what is the prediction . What do you expect . Carl we are slightly below the consensus estimate. I would focus more on the private number than the headline number because it will still be this distortion related to temp hiring for the 20 20s for the 2020 census. I think we can dial back on things like the Unemployment Rate, and the wage pressure metrics. The focus will be is really we have seen this scare of contraction in the factories sector, potential contagion into services. We want to see if that is reflected in the breadth of hiring. If we make it through that without some negative news that can push 10 year yields lower, the next focus will be on if we are generating enough Household Income growth for consumers to really carry the next leg of expansion. Alix its really been a crazy wild week. Im pretty tired. [laughter] alix wheres the asymmetric risk as we head into the number . Constance i thing its one of those things, your dam things, you are damned if you do, dammed if you dont. Situation are in the where good news is bad news and bad news is good news. Alix still . I thought we moved this week to bad news is just bad news. Carl the week number would increase the weak number would increase the chance of the fed easing further. Is trade lever there negotiations. If it is a truly bad report, perhaps the administration will decide to kick the can a little further down the road and delay those increasing tariffs, and certainly equity markets would like that as well. If we are talking more fed easing and slower implementation weak iffs based on risksrisk like this like that. Gina id think something change this week, and that was the i asked him the ism numbers flipping well below 50. Before that, there was the notion that maybe 2020 would not recover to the extent we were hoping. Obviously we were expecting pretty poor conditions to maintain in the second half of this year, but there was anticipation that this was a blip. That last months weakness in manufacturing may have been shortterm, to a small degree, and that we were likely to show some recovery. Stocks have already priced for much easier fed condition. Some of the weakness over the last month is because they question whether the fed was going to stay weak. Yesterdays recovery was nothing in comparison to the declines we had thursday and friday, so you need to have some stable growth with at least a little bit of prospect to keep stocks moving higher. Alix at least for me, the other changes that happened this week was the real rollover break. Yields are inyear canada versus the west. You had a curve steepen her. You go from a bear steepener to able steepener in two days. That says something is different. Do you agree . Constance i do totally agree. I agree with carl about the breadth. Look at the diffusion index when it comes out. Carl which has been losing momentum. Constance does that continue to lose momentum . If you look at the Employment Data in both of those ism indices, you saw a decline. So i would also look at the three month moving average and do a yearoveryear analysis, and that would suggest that consumption is going to have to pull back a little not. If we caring on if we carry on with these tariffs, these are all focused on the consumer, so that leads to consumer weakness. Carl as i look at all of the inputs into our payroll forecasting model, we have jobs plentiful, jobs hard to get. We have jobless claims, the employment subcomponents. Red mosthings flashing brightly where those components of the ism economic surveys its when there are shocks to the system, sometimes the isms objectives become more i reflect meant of sentiment. The fact those are fresh and if the fact those are flashings may be overstating the deterioration in the economy right now. We have seen a little bit of impact from the gm strike, and that tells me baby we are panicking too much about the economy tilting into recession. Mind you, it is certainly signaling a slowdown, and it is indicated if we fit gdp into it ism survey. It is still telling us that we should see growth in the. Icinity of north of 1. 5 as i dissected the services ism yesterday, it looked to me like that data was not going to be sustainable, given on business , assumingn new orders we do not have some shock on geopolitical risk or trade tensions. Constance i think its important to realize jobs as a concurrent indicator. It is not a leading indicator in any way. It is even sometimes a slightly lagging indicator. So you will not see things show up in the jobs data until we are in recession. Gina but if you really thick about what the jobs indicators you want are for the market, distress in jobs numbers lead you to distress in the economy. I think we need to watch more broadly, what is happening with services industries, and really importantly, what is happening with the weekly data on initial claims . All year long, it has been stagnant. It is really frustrating. It is not giving any sort of great signal, but not moving in one direction or another. The other thing i would say with on act to jobs is, if monthly basis you get one hastive number, you usually led to a slowdown. That usually is an indicator of much more weakness. So there are bits and pieces that are leading is what im trying to say. Alix i feel like if you are having this conversation and year ago, we would have said we are at full employment because we are so great. By not seeing that today . Reporter Richard Clarida said dont see any evidence yet the labor market was at full heating. We are not seeing that to any material degree. I dont agree with the stagnation. The euro growth rate is faster than it was, so the slope is positive for wage pressures, but we are not seeing that type of late cycle blowout that would tell us we really have hit the brick wall in terms of Spare Capacity in the labor market. Gina which frankly, is a good thing. When you think about whats going to drive earnings, if you think about businesses, if businesses are not being forced to accelerate beyond just vigilante growth. In the fed has the leeway to let the economy run hot. Just to play devils advocate here, everything is spiraling out of order in this economic cycle. Housing didnt drive us out of recession like it normally does. Consumer discretionary the bright spot. That is not usually the case in the late stage of a cycle. So jobs may have a different role as leading or concurrent indicator in the current environment because we have seen that house Income Growth is out. He out is petering the economy is going to suddenly see a significance slowdown. We are just not seeing that because of Household Income trends well outpacing inflation. There were some Great Research a couple of weeks ago that children older workforce tends to not shift jobs as frequently, and it is that job shifting where a lot of people get their wage gains. Their wage gains. The Research Really suggested that because we have such a preponderance of people over the age of 40 in the labor force, we arent seeing that job shifting so we are not seeing wage gains. Increasesl about wage being the end of expansion is no longer as good a signal as it was in the past. Qualify, iss that over 40 the end of the wage force . [indiscernible] [laughter] working age technically is from 25 to 54, but that is shifting. As you get older, you just have more brand equity within a certain corporation and people dont shift as much. Alix thats a good thing, then. Riccadonna and gina martin adams, thanks a lot. Really appreciate it. Constance hunter of kpmg will be sticking with me. You can find all of the charts we are going to use if you go to gdb go on your terminal. Browse the features, check it out. Coming up, win deal genius fails. We will take a look at the hard Lessons Learned by three big names in the m a world. Thats coming up next. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Apple reportedly has a problem it hadnt counted on. Demand for the new iphone is strongerthanexpected. According to the new k to the , it wouldan review add up to 8 million units. Job cuts on the way at hp. The giant personal computer maker will cut up to 16 of its workforce. That could be as many as 9000 positions. Its part of a broad restructuring designed to cut costs and boost sales growth. Hp facing a number of uncertainties. Sales are falling on the printing business. Next month, the ceo steps down. Also stepping down, the ceo of bp. The British Energy company saying bob dudley will lead in will leave in february. Leave in february. He will be replaced by the head of the up street division. A deadly has been with bp for 40 years. He took over as ceo in 2010 after the deepwater horizon catastrophe in the gulf of mexico, that cost the company billions in penalties and compensation. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thank you so much. We seem three mna powerhouses up m aentire three their entirep end industries, but thou they dont look so scary. What is your biggest take away right now . Reporter it feels very light cycle. We see a lot of deals, complex deals, crossborder deals, and it started to feel like the heat is coming out of the market. Theres a lot of headwinds. Have a lot of geopolitical risk. Obviously what is going on in the middle east, brexit come up potential impeachment, trade wars, plus regulators showing more muscle in the way they are willing to litigate. Even though you have good credit conditions, reasonably high ceo confidence, it just feels like it is starting to slow down. Alix is that like a harbinger, or that we are going to go look at Different Things that is going to move the market instead . Ed i think there will be Different Things they got looked at. Obviously activism is playing a part here. Its becoming more of a driver, so i think we will see more separations, these more tax efficient structures. I think the big Public Company to Public Company m a, particularly if it is not straightforward, i think those are going to start to go away. The other thing we are seeing is activists jump into deals. It may be has some questionable logic to it. Do they really need to do it . Activists are now showing a willingness to jump in and say actually, if you do this, we are going to vote you out. Alix is there a rainmaker of who is going to lose the most . Ed right now the rainmaker losing the most is softbank. They were the biggest, and they were doing more than anyone else, and that halo is really dimming at the moment. Alix well, youve got 1 trillion. Youve got to put it somewhere. Think so much, bloombergs ed hammond. Coming up, we are going to take a look at how a switch from cash can benefit factory workers and women with sue kelsey, mastercard executive Vice President for prepaid solutions, on this job stay. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. We made it to friday, but we still have to get to the jobs number. S p futures off the lows of the session, but still down 0. 4 , giving back some of that calming reprieve from the selloff we saw yesterday. The dax going nowhere. European stocks going nowhere. A weaker dollar story pretty much across the board. You are also looking at oil looking at its weekly biggest loss since july. That is one to watch as well. A look at demand fears. Also, the curve steepening pretty much all week. We are at 14 basis points, which is unbelievable because at three because three days ago, we were at six. 10 year breakevens really making headlines over the last two hours, near 2016 lows. If it is not inflation, when do we Start Talking deflation . On this jobs day, we want to take a closer look at the Garment Industry and how the worlds garment factory workers are paid. Adultsan 230 million globally, 85 of them in low income countries, get paid in cash, which can leave them financially vulnerable. That is especially true for especially true for women, who make up 68 of the Garment Industry. Mastercard is looking to change that. Joining me for more is sue kelsey, mastercard executive Vice President of prepaid solutions, and Constance Hunter of kpmg is still with me. Walk us through how you came up with this and what the Adoption Rate is like. A paymentrcard is technology company. We help people pay for things and get paid digitally, but the stilly is come there are millions of people being paid in cash, and those tend to be in very laborintensive Industries Like garment manufacturing. Weve made a Global Partnership with brands, and we are digitizing the payroll in the factories, which is of benefit not just to the supply chain because it reduces operational costs, because it is efficient and transparent, but also for the workers because it allows them receive their pay securely and safely. It also helps build financial stability. We see a 15 to 20 shift in workers ability to save when they are paid digitally. For many of these people, it is the first time they get a bank account, so it brings them into the world economy. Constance i was going to ask how many of them are unbanked. Sue the large majority of them are unbanked, actually. There is still a lot of work in this area. Theres still 1. 7 billion people in the world that are unbacked. Mastercard that are run ked. Ed that are unban the next stage, and we all need to make a difference in the area of women. Alix can you walk me through what you found when you are putting this together in terms of women in the Garment Industry . Sue in general, what we find is the solutions and the environments were not designed with women in mind. We are 50 of the population, a growth driver for the economy, but really making sure that the world is designed with women in mind is critical for us. Nearly 70 of these workers are women. We found that 75 of these people dont have basic financial literacy. So we are working on programs with nonprofit organizations, the business of social responsibility, helping us do on the ground, peertopeer training of basic things about how to use money, how to use a bank account. The beauty of what we see is not only does that help women in the factories, but women tend to pass that information onto their children as well, so it helps not just now, but also the next generation. Constance theres a lot of data that shows women will tend to spend money on their families and on education, whereas that doesnt always happen when it is men bring home the money, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. So it is really going to have, i think, some interest if, positive effects. Think those are key reasons why it is important for us to focus on women. They create this environment of healthy adoption of behaviors and habits. Alix what i also find industry what i also find interesting, people going straight to mobile. You dont have your Traditional Bank where you go in, your local bank like you would in the midwest or something. You are only on your phone. That is skipping over a lot of steps. Sue the solution that weve created here is accommodation of both. As a physical card, plus phone solution. Great equalizer because everybody has a phone. The dignity of having a card brings a lot of joy to people, so being able to be formally included. The convenience of their phone, to be able to pay utility bills, descend money to their families, typically people will have to go somewhere and physically take transportation to go to do that. Now they can do it from their home. Alix constance, have you done work on the power of women globally in the spending power Going Forward, particularly as we see things like more women drawn into the workforce, more women wind up living longer. Have you done any work on that . Constance i havent, but there is a lot of research about this, and that it is a big part of the economy that previously hasnt really been focused on. I think the fact that we have women as nearly 70 of these employees, bringing them into thy Financial System will create a really data rich environment to imagine what kind of spending they undertake, so i think theres a huge possibility to do some really Interesting Research as a result of this. Alix do you get into different industries, too . Sue garment is one of the first sectors, but this is equally applicable to other sectors. We are starting to work in farming, Coffee Farming in mexico. What we are creating here is not specific to the industry. It is globally scalable and Applicable Across Industries as well. We will go wherever our partners ask us to go. We are present in 210 countries around the world. Thatance i was thinking kpmg recently signed the Business Roundtable letter that the employees and stakeholders we need to Pay Attention to, among other things. Do you see a change in the corporate attitudes towards these things . You are kind of in a sweet spot where the technology is there, and you have this shift in the zeitgeist where there is more awareness that this not only makes Good Business sense, but it builds a strong community. Sue we are totally seeing that, and that is a core philosophy at mastercard. We aim to do well and do good. Because of the scale we bring, we can do both. Mastercard really is a market organizer. We work with all of the market i. With all of the market organizers, with governments and banks and telcos and private sectors and nonprofit organizations. Our opportunity here and what we are leaving is bringing all of those partners together to really capitalize on these big social changes at scale. Thank you so much. Really appreciate alix thank you so much. Really appreciate you coming in today. We do want to get an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. Viviana hurtado is here with first word news. Viviana hong kong invoking colonial era Emergency Powers for the first time in more than half a century. Facemasksment banned on protesters that would make it easier for police to identify them. It is the latest attempt to quell demonstrations that began in june. Chief executive carrie lam telling reporters the violence is destroying hong kong. President trump says north koreas most provocative missile test in years wont stall formal talks. This week, kim jonguns government test fired a missile from a submarine. North korea has been pushing the u. S. To ease sanctions in return for backing off its nuclear program. U. S. House democrats releasing documents shedding more light on president Donald Trumps relationship with ukraine. Officials working with the behalf of the president. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Alix thanks so much. The impeachment inquiry adding uncertainty to the market this week, and we have more risk events ahead next week, anduding the fed meeting trade talks starting in washington. Constance hunter of kpmg is still with me. What i wanted to do is tie these together. You have the impeachment, which have the impeachment, which many say is very separate, but the trade talks, and how they will wind up influencing each other. What do you thing about that as we head into the trade talks next week . Constance i think impeachment only increases the sense that china already had the upper hand. The interesting thing about abouttrade these trade talks, each side is fully convinced they are the ones with the upper hand. To me, that says that the negotiations may not go as smoothly as perceived. Alix youre not alone and that. Libby cantrell of pimco was talking yesterday on balance of power. This is what she had to say. My view is this weakens the u. S. Negotiating power, at least their perspective when it comes to the chinese. The things that are on the table are big, structural issues. The chinese have been very reluctant to make any sort of concessions. This makes them even more reluctant to make those difficult structural concessions. Constance aire with that i agree with that. Alix what do you do when you have more tariffs coming in october and december . Constance and these hit consumers. The previous tariffs hit intermediate goods for the most part, and now we are hitting consumers. We are looking at jobs growth slowing, so that feeds through consumersollars in pockets. We are adding 20 5 tariffs. It is pretty significant. It fed already estimated took 80 basis points off gdp. This will be a doubling of torage, so we go from 12. 4 almost 15. 5 2020 in terms of tariffs. That is not going to have a linear impact on the economy. Off 80 basis points this year, we are talking about 1. 8 or 2 off of gdp. Alix the counter many are saying is right, but we are heading into an election year, so President Trump will need to demonstrate something. Therefore, a deal of some sort will get done. It solidifies my view that the chinese have it the better negotiating position. We have elections, where he is going to want to, at least on paper and in the headlines, say he got this deal done. I think the chinese are going to press that advantage. Be an announcement, my the substance of that point is, we are not going back to the 3 most favored status that we had. Alix great to catch up with you. Thank you so much, Constance Hunter of kpmg. Coming up, more news from unicorn vigilantes. Investors are telling startups, get your act together before going on wall street. More of that next. If you have the terminal, check out tv. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Coming up in the next hour, luminarys ceo. One more joke for wework, telling employees job cuts will take place as soon as this month. Bloomberg has learned about 2000 jobs could be eliminated. That would be 60 of their headcount. Some of those cuts could be jobs in Business Units that may be spun out. Ever could amount of work for the street artist a record amount for a work by the street artist banksy. It sold for 12. 2 million at sothebys in london. No word on who the buyer is. Im Viviana Hurtado. Thats your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix that is some kind of painting. We turn to our weekly Bloomberg Businessweek. First finance, now getting into every corner of Corporate America and the world. Next, warnings from unicorn vigilantes. The herd is thinning after the latest ipo setbacks. And where all of the women in pe . The Glass Ceiling in the pe world is thick. Joining me is Silvia Killingsworth and sonali basak. This feature was really great. It was about private equities taking over the planet. I want to hear what you guys discovered. World it is not just the of finance, but also things like real estate, consumer stuff. Basically, one of the things about private equity, its very hard to see into it. We did a lot of breaking down how theyve been working in d. C. , how theyve been financing. They are taking on a lot of debt. They are taking off some of the manchester some of the mystery around private equity. Alix and they are like Asset Managers now. They are not really private equity. Sonali exactly. Private equity now is kind of a misnomer. It is not just private equity. It is venture capital. More companies are private than our public, and peaceful and people are lessons advised to go public these days. There are job cuts at some of these, and this has come into the political spotlight as equity, andprivate that is elizabeth warrens crusade. Alix are they too big of a player . Silvia exactly. Theres about 8000 private equity backed companies, about twice the number on the public markets. It truly is, it touches everything in our lives come from hamburgers tissues to rent. Sonali i think this piece really draws a line in the sand because private equity, as weve known it the past 10 years, may not be the private equity we know the next 10. Returns are likely to come down a bit, especially because some of these are levered as high as possible. These are more highly levered companies, and also theres so much money pouring into it, Pension Funds, endowments are going to do their own deals these days. Alix thats a really good point. This go to the secondstory, and the title is amazing. Theres unicorn blood in the streets. If theres a visual thats going to get you, it is going to be this. , or is uber and we work it more . Silvia as we know, endeavor has pulled back, others have gone for a direct listing. We are sorta seeing some injuries from pulling back. I think we are seeing vigilance from investors who are casting doubt on whether these companies are way overvalued and under profitable. Sonali think about how frustrated you must be as an investor, where the early investors really were able to cash out at higher ipos that have fallen since then. The companies in the early investors did get that higher ipo price and were able to cash out, but since theyve fallen otherthat, it is investors that have left out. Softbanks getting really hurt. Is it all of a sudden that companies are going to say, lets go get some profitability . Im not sold. One thing they need to be worried about come of these companies with multiple Asset Classes are not allowed to be listed in the indexes like s p and dow jones because of the distinction between the owner 10 shareholders who have times the number of votes, and that is not seen as welcome in the open market. Alix fair. Lets get to the third story. Talk about not having power. The amount of women in high roles in equity is stunningly bad. Very low. Silvia absolutely. Tpg and carlisle are some of the highest numbers of women, but it is very low across the board. Part of this is it is a relatively new field. Means now is that the time to change those numbers. Sonali exactly. Lets definitely not use the idea that it is a new asset class. It is such a scapegoat. Where are the women . The thing that is interesting now, even in the investors and Pension Funds are saying we are committed to having more women managers, so we need more women among these private equity firms that are also managing money. So 8 of the investment professionals at the top 10 firms was a statistic on how many women were managing money. Some of these firms only had one woman as an investment professional. Alix i am going to say three out of all of that is a lot. Apollo, kkr, that is pretty staggering. Really great, guys. Thank you. Great issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. Definitely check it out. In this weeks women on wall street, we want to feature one of the most powerful women in the industry. That is the ceo of russell eitz. Tment, michelle s we spoke with her recently and asked about the lessons she learned being a woman in finance. The thing that people probably dont talk about enough is that lives happen. Right . Taking a moment to pause, taking a moment to be strategically selfish, to make sure that you are at your best capacity, that you are taking care of what the needs are of the family in your life that matter most. So i think just recognizing that when you are in a people business, it is about people. I think more people are talking about that than ever before. Alix strategically selfish. Love it. Coming up, investors white with bated breath ahead of the jobs report. If you are jumping in your car, tune into bluebird radio, heard across the u. S. On sirius xm channel 119 and on the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for traders take. Bloomberg ira jersey, intelligence chief u. S. Rate strategist. What is the one chart you need to be watching into the jobs number . Yields, teetering at this 1. 5 level. If we break through that, i think we could retest the recent lows in the 10year gilts. Their . Nd then do we hold what is going to push it lower . Ira thatlated really depends. If we see lower jobs numbers, we may potentially make new lows, 1. 30 ng those in the area which is the low from a few years ago. I look at ism numbers, those are things that scare me. Not necessarily for this month, but for next month in particular, because those readings were pretty weak. The downtrend and that is a little bit disturbing, and something that i think the Federal Reserve might as well as the bond market, is really going to focus on Going Forward. Alix is the risk asymmetric . I thinkhink it is, and it is asymmetric to the downside. If we get a strong member, probably only a five or 10 basis point tick in yields, but yields could go bound by 20. Could go down by 20. Alix thank you very much. Looking forward to that number. Among up, our jobs to coverage. This is bloomberg. Sometimes your small screen is your big screen. And with the Xfinity Stream app, which is free with your service, you can take a spin through on demand shows, or stream live tv. Download your dvrd shows and movies on the fly. Even record from right where you are. Keep what you watch with you. Download the Xfinity Stream app today and get ready for Xfinity Stream tv week. Watch shows like south park and the walking dead october 7th through 13th. Alix welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this friday, october 4. It is jobs day in the end of the week. Im alix steel. We are just about 30 minutes away from the september jobs report, and signs indicate it could be lackluster. That could put pressure on the fed to cut Interest Rates again. For the first time in more than half a century, hong kong has invoked Emergency Powers that date back to colonial times. Facemasksment banned on protesters, the latest attempt to quell demonstrators that began in june. Lam it is not an easy decision to ban the masks, but given the Current Situation in hong kong, this is a necessary decision. Alix the European Union has given british Prime MinisterBoris Johnson a deadline to revise his brexit deal in a week. If not, johnson faces a humiliating postpone meant of the u. K. Departure. Beverly Hills Property thats bigger than disneyland on sale. The site was owned by the late microsoft cofounder paul allen. The price has been slashed to on hundred 10 million. In the markets, half an hour away from jobs. Equity futures down 0. 3 , but Holding Around the lows of the session. Still a weaker dollar story. Eurodollar up by 0. 1 . Bond yields going nowhere, but its been a fairly crazy week. Crude up by 0. 4 . Also some stabilization there, but no big positions being taken on before jobs. The jobs day book ending a week of disappointing Economic Data come with market dispense and Federal Reserve officials weighing what it all means. You have idiosyncratic factors that affect the labor market, but its not just the labor market. Trade uncertainty has been very important for the weakness in manufacturing. Ive talked to so many business executives, manufacturing executives who have indicated theres a good deal of uncertainty. If you look at the cyclical part, it is certainly correlated with tightness in the labor market. We are seeing signs of the economy slowing somewhat, and we want to get Monetary Policy positions that keep the economy growing at a sustainable pace. Everybody has been much more cautious, and we havent seen the increase in Business Investment we expected on the heels of very aggressive, strong tax cuts and Corporate Tax reform. Torsten me now on set, joining me now onset, torsten slok, Deutsche Bank chief economist, and sue bought her rajappa, socgen head of u. S. Rates strategy. What are you got what have you got . Seen prettyeady decent moves in the last week. Theres been bull steepening. The move in 10 year yield has been quite dramatic, given the fact that we got only two data prints in the last two months. A me, i feel like there is skew towards lower yields, especially if we see a miss in todays number. If you look at the jobs in the monger the jobs number, its been extra nearly volatile. It feels like the market might be a little bit more skittish given the volatility in the data. Torsten what is really interesting about this month is september 1 we got tariffs on consumer goods. This was a game changer in the tariff war. We are heading a whole new segment of companies in the Services Sector. It will begin to give some evidence of are we seeing some spreading from the manufacturing , most importantly the Services Sector. Alix jeffries had a push back to that theory, saying as long as real rates are negative, it doesnt matter. Torsten if you have the trade war hitting more on the confidence side, the answer to solving a confidence problem is not to lower the rate by 25 basis points. If you really have a confidence cloud coming in over not only the manufacturing sector, as all the fomc members spoke about, if you have uncertainty about consumer goods, tariffs going up, october 15 and december 1, and now also tariffs on europe and delisting chinese companies, it looks as though the trade war is escalating. Alix and others announcing they will see job cuts as well. The other interesting movies on breakevens, the lowest level in some ways since 2016. What do you think . What happened . What you do . Subadra i think this is the most important number for the fed watchers. Inflation expectations going below 150 makes it look like what we saw in 2016, when we saw a significant slowdown in growth. Real yields are close to zero. To me, i think the one important thing that global Central Banks want to prevent is a meaningful decline in inflation expectations. Then policy is not going to be nearly as effective, even if they do cut rates. The thing that is troubling to me, you have the ecb providing accommodation, the fed providing accommodation, and breakevens are not moving higher, so theres no response in the markets to policy accommodation. That is very troubling. Torsten but actual inflation has a move higher, and this is a problem for the fed. They like to talk about actual inflation, which has been going up, and inflation expectations, which have been going down. Subadra how much is the actual data because of tariffs or other factors, versus something which is a more secular trend in inflation . Torsten exactly. I think the fed will lower rates and should lower rates. The argument for saying inflation going down, it is not there on the actual inflation. Alix it also raises the question, before, when we had the fed coming in for rate cuts because of external factors, now it feels like the conversation is more domestic. You can see that with the treasury spreads narrowing the most in a few years because of u. S. Yields finally coming down. What do you make of all of those differential moves . Subadra the question now becomes, is it just still insurance cuts . We had 25 basis points, another 25 basis points. To act aaybe has little more aggressively and deliver maybe a 50 basis point rate cut. That is where i think the debate is going to be going at this fomc meeting. Still consider this a midcycle adjustment given the tangible slowdown in the data . Torsten theres a lot of evidence it is late cycle. We seen a number of indicators in the consumer sentiment. People today are much more optimistic about today than they are about the future. Normally, it happens later in the cycle. We are seeing the liquid see rates go up on the number of people behind on their payments on the consumer side. If you combine that with the trade war, the list of bullet points for why there are reasons to be worried to the downside is pretty long relative to the list of bullet points for upside risks. Alix i like that you brought up delinquencies. It is something similar to what we saw yesterday. The credit default cycle for this year, maybe next year, is ok, but by late 2020, we will jump from 3. 5 to 10 . What are you looking at . Subadra the demand for Corporate Bonds has been extra nearly high. The supply has lagged for a good portion of the year. We saw gangbusters corporate issuance in september and extra nearly good demand for Corporate Bonds. The question is is this just a supply and demand imbalance causing all of this demand for corporations . As we progress through the cycle, you should start seeing Corporate Bond spreads widen, especially if you start going into a sort of recession or a meaningful slowdown. It is just not happening now because of supply. Torsten lets just remind ourselves, last year the Congressional Budget Office calculated that we should have had a huge boom in the labor market. A negative print on farm bureaus. The trade war uncertainty is potentially more than offsetting the significant lift supposed to have had from the tax cut last year. Alix a bunch of positivity on step. Stay tuned. Torsten slok of Deutsche Bank and Subadra Rajappa of socgen are staying with me. Coming up, a decline for hiring and staffing with someone who speaks with ceos and hr heads weekly. This is bloomberg. Alix u. S. Employers forecasting and added 145,000 jobs in september. Tom gimbel, Lasalle Network founder and ceo, is with us. Good to see you. From where you sit, how are things . Interesting. The market is good from a hiring standpoint. Despite the news of hp and the layoffs that came out today, companies are wanting people. They cant find them. Theres hiring going on, but this chicken little sky is falling is starting to become true, where we are starting to feel that companies are a little hesitant due to what is going on in washington, d. C. , the geopolitical climate. Im a little bit apprehensive going into the jobs numbers today, for the first time in a while. Torsten could you be more precise . What exactly are you hearing . That they are cutting back hours, cutting back in specific segments affected by the trade war, or a more broad sense that the tone has changed in terms of this issue . Tom we are starting to see some of the ramifications from the trade war. I was with a ceo yesterday who runs a 50 million company. Revenues have slowed down 20 versus september 30 a year ago. That seems to be an overriding issue on small to Mediumsized Companies. We are not talking about fortune 500 companies here. But fuels jobs in this country tends to be small and Mediumsized Companies hiring on main street. That is where the slowdown is. What im also seeing is it creates opportunities, and divisions that hire for sales, for marketing, they are continuing to hire, and that is a good sign. Alix something you are wat ching also is overtime hours. What does that show you . Torsten the arms line shows a drop in overtime in manufacturing, and white line is in the sectors hit by the trade war. We are a little worried that the rns line is a leading indicator, that more slowdown might be coming. Alix when you talk to ceos, are they noticing a falloff in demand, or is this a preemptive fear . Tom a little bit of a preemptive fear is what im seeing. You look at manufacturing, whether companies are union and nonunion, what weve seen is the increase of overtime rates. So as soon as theres a little hint of a slowdown, now you are going to see that the hours worked are going to drop because the hourly pay rate has risen, and this is that influx point, and im a little nervous about that. Torsten what about wages and benefits . You also see a lot of different types of workers. Is there any change in the picture . Is there still upward pressure on wages and benefits . If is there any challenges think is newsworthy . Tom ive never been too surprised when wages dont grow at huge numbers because we really are in a global economy. I was with the ceo of a publicly traded company a few weeks ago. At the end of the day, the conversation really stops with if i can get really good quality workers to do it at a lower rate, thats who we are competing against in america. Its not the person down the street. Its not the person in another state. There are qualified, educated people that can do a lot of the processing work, and even when you get into accounting, legal, and i. T. Work, that can be done across the globe. We see the cycle of change in the next go around as the developing countries wages ris e, you will see things come back here and rates in america come up. Alix we talk a lot about the jobs shortages and industries and why ceos complain they dont have qualified workers, but we are not seeing that reflected in wages. Is that why, that the third party is doing really well . Tom that is 100 why. We have different immigration issues. H1b visa issues are a longer topic for another day, but we have those challenges. So when we are trying to get workers, weve got to go to where they are. You cant always fight city hall in making things good in your backyard. Youve got to deliver for your clients. More and more companies, clients that are under 100 million and over 4 million, the really both sides. When you see a company that has facilities in other countries come up yet south america, eastern europe, youre starting to realize these are real challenges, and these arent manufacturing jobs. This is a really interesting dynamic. Torsten as you said, the thing that gets so much attention in markets is the spreading to the Services Sector. So you are basically confirming there are more signs of the Services Sector showing signs of weakness. Tom i wouldnt say weakness. I would say slowdown. I do think there is in it there is a difference there. Weakness. The country and the clients we deal with the companies and the clients we deal with everyday are doing well. You dont win every year. Alix and that is just what we are showing here. Do you get a sense of the panacea . If all of a sudden trade tariffs were all lifted or xi and trump hug or something, what makes investors and ceos feel better . Tom if we start pulling back on the trade war, then all of a sudden, it creates an easing of the nerves of a lot of corporate ceos in america and allows people to get going and put it into fifth gear again. Alix tom gimbel of Lasalle Network, so good to get your perspective. For since lock torsten slok is staying with me. Coming up, President Trump signs an executive order aimed at shoring up medicare. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Apple reportedly has a problem it hadnt counted on. Demand for the new iphone is strongerthanexpected. According to the nikkei asian review, apple told suppliers to increase production by as much as 10 . That would add up to 11 million units. Job cuts on the way at hp. The personal computer maker will cut up to 16 of its workforce. That could be as many as 9000 jobs. Its part of a broad restructuring designed to cut costs, boost sales growth. Hp facing a number of uncertainties. Sales are falling in the printing business. Next month, the ceo steps down. In a visit with Senior Citizens in the state of florida, President Donald Trump portraying himself as a defender of medicare. He signed an executive order aimed at enhancing Medicare Advantage come of the private insurance option picked by about 1 3 of the elderly. Pres. Trump together we are creating a Health Care System that protects vulnerable patients, make health care more affordable, gives you more choice and control, and delivers the high quality care americans deserve. Viviana the president accuses democrats of trying to obliterate medicare. No democrat is proposing to take coverage or benefits away from seniors. That is your bluebird business flash. Alix thanks so much. Still with me onset, torsten slok of Deutsche Bank and Subadra Rajappa of socgen. Torsten this chart shows the number of people who are uninsured, who dont have health care. Of course, it came down when you begin medicare for all, but with obamacare it came down. Why do we care about this . This has a number of consequences. Most important for everything that has to do with inflation. It also has a lot of consequent for labor supply. In the actually get into the labor market . It also has consequent is for Consumer Spending because Health Care Makes up about 20 of Consumer Spending, so the cost of health care is a very important part of the outlook for the economy. Alix if we take a look at a chart, our Health Care Costs compared to the rest of the world are staggeringly high, and this is becoming a flashpoint for 2020 as well. When you look at 2020, how do you look at that in terms of the individual risks, how you might hedge . Subadra i think 20 20 is going to be very interesting from a variety of perspectives. If we see a meaningful slowdown or a recession, that really changes the dynamic for both parties at this point. Then of course, you have other political risks like impeachment or geopolitics, but ultimately any sort of resolution, like we spoke earlier on about the trade front, would be a huge tailwind going into next year. Theys kind of why i think might be getting a line for some sort of resolution sooner rather than later, at least by the end of year. Im a little more of an optimist on the trade front. Far, theata thus inversion of the curve, as well as all of the other metrics we track in the rates market, we seem to be heading towards a meaningful slowdown or recession by the middle of 2020, which does not bode well for the elections. Alix i feel Like Health Care is going to be one of the issues, particularly in tech as well. Elizabeth warren and President Trump very different, but both trying to reform something that needs to be fixed. We are thats why changing from trade uncertainty to election uncertainty. Election uncertainty is a whole different animal. You just have a long list of things and question marks. What is the outlook for health care . Is this going to be more expensive for companies . The cost for companies continues to go up. If the cost per worker goes up, at the end of the day, this could potentially become a big issue, but we need to have more clarity. We just dont really know what exactly election uncertainty entails at this point, other than the trend is not your friend generally on the health care front. Alix in terms of how you look at the market perspective, do you hedge stuff . What do you do in this kind of scenario . Subadra thats a good question. I dont know that there is any sort of natural hedge for election outcomes. Theres a lot of uncertainty. Like we know most elections are evenly divided, including the last election that we had also it is really hard to know what the outcome is. My strategy is to focus on the macroeconomic fundamentals and respond to the fundamentals, and that is exactly what you are seeing in the market. Every metric that i look at seems to suggest concern about the outlook over the coming year , especially in the context of a global slowdown. Already in any is recession. The u. S. Is in a manufacturing recession. If you look at some of the leading indicators of a recession, even in the economy you are starting to see some flashing signs of concern. At least thus far the data has been good. The market has been concerned about what is happening. Youre starting to see data rollover as well. Alix well, the bond markets were right the whole time. Of socgen anda torsten slok of Deutsche Bank sticking with me. The jobs numbers are next. This is bluebird. This is bloombergs. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. I am alix steel. Just moments away from the jobs numbers. Here is where markets wind up sitting. S p futures of. 4 . Bond yields go nowhere. The ball the dollar continuing to be the under performer the g10 space. Eurodollar up. 1 . We want to go to the labor department. Michael mckee has the numbers. Michael a weird report. Created, but big revisions in july and august ad 45,000 more. The Unemployment Rate falls to 3. 5 . That is the lowest since december 1969. It is because more people found jobs, not a change in the labor force. , one hundred 14,000 in the private sector. Only 1000 census jobs. State and local governments added 24,000 workers. Hours worked unchanged at 44. 4 percent and the labor market purchase bit Participation Rate unchanged. Africanamerican unemployment at 5. 5 , matches the lowest ever. Hispanic unemployment falls to 3. 9 , that is the lowest ever. Hammeredntinues to get , losing more than 11,000 jobs. The eighth straight month retailers have been cutting workers. Jobs,cturing lost 2000 construction gained to 7000. It is a tough report to interpret. The fed could look at this and say we do not need to do anything, we expected jobs to start to slow. We are not sure how wall street is going to react. Alix you are seeing the reaction in the market with that. Youre seeing selling at the front end of the curve, yields up two basis points, and the back end goes nowhere. Stay with me for a second. Still with me, torsten slok of Deutsche Bank and Subadra Rajappa of socgen. Your initial take . Torsten the economy is slowing. We are slowly pressing on the brakes. It is not a falling out of bed moment, but things are slowing down. If you look at the chart for manufacturing jobs, it continues to trend lower. The uncertainty is still hanging over the outlook. It is having an impact on the labor market. Most importantly, wages growing slower, the yearoveryear rate is something the market will Pay Attention to. That means the inflation pressures at all the piers we have had about high wage growth and the economy labor market overheating does not seem to be more. Alix mild flattening . Subadra the number corroborates the key theme, which is the pace of job creation continues. A lot of negativity was priced into the market priced into the report, following the week ism print, now you are seeing a consensus number, the bond market especially starting to give back some of those gains. Alix is that the underemployment rate that has dropped a good thing . Torsten that is a good thing, and it is a significant drop from 7. 2 to 6. 9 . That is rather dramatic. The big picture is still the Unemployment Rate coming down so much. Surprisingte compared to the limited job growth. The most important number is the private payrolls. That includes the census workers. Michael, that number for census, how much was there in terms of job growth overall . Michael only 1000 jobs. That is surprising because the Census Bureau said it would add 40,000 in august and september and they only added 20,000. We are not sure where the other 19,000 was. It had no effect on overall hiring. This was a regular jobs report. Alix also wanted to ask if you are able to dig deeper into the average hourly earnings. Where did we see the biggest weakness . Michael eu do not see weakness, you saw flat. In every category there was a 1 or 2 change, which on a percentage basis represents 0. 0 . On the monthly basis, that takes it down to 2. 9 . That is not worrisome in terms of inflation. It may be a concern Going Forward about sustainability of retail sales. Alix and the bond market, a pickup in yields on the front end. Is this a pricing out of fed cuts . Is this a positioning . Is stillthe market priced in for an october rate cut. December was a coin toss and it remains a coin toss. The rates market seems to be suggesting one cant. One cut. The data does not point to a need for more than one cut. This will be viewed as a status quo for the most part. Meantime,he nonstatus quo is the end employment rate, 3. 5 . The lowest since 1969. Where does the fed shape up they are way off on that, right . Torsten the irony is when you are below your estimate for the national Unemployment Rate most peoples estimates are around 4 . You should have had in increase in wages, but what we are wrestling with is what we also heard from the hiring companies. There are signs of wages slowing down. Maybe we are at an Inflection Point where you have this Unemployment Rate in the cloud of uncertainty is beginning to holdback optimism. Alix that is a good point. How much of that dynamic is because of trade or because that is where we are in the cycle . Look at should the fed the Unemployment Rate of 3. 5 , we should be raising rates, or are they saying theres a cloud of uncertainty coming where lack of a lot more clarity about where we are going, and maybe we do not know where we are going. If that is the case, maybe we should be cautious. Subadra they will eventually have to bring down the National Rate of unemployment again at the next meeting. Uc dichotomy here is unemployment continued to clock you see unemployment continued to climb but no change in wages. We are in a different regime altogether joint altogether. Torsten an upward revision of 45,000. The headline number and on the med factoring side on the manufacturing side continues to confirm market worries of the trade war pushing down pressure on hiring and the economy. Alix we also have the trade balance out. It widened again. Michael looking at the numbers, the trade deficit widening to 59. 4 billion. A little bit more than was expected. It had been 54 billion. The impact on that was it subtracts from growth in the third quarter. It is not particularly good news. Not a huge change, but not good news for the overall economy. One good thing when you look at the payrolls report, i mentioned the tariff report and the idea we lost jobs in the middle makers because we have watch the steel and aluminum tariffs, but we are starting to see it in other places food manufacturing, the Agricultural Sector also losing jobs. We are starting to see that maybe this trade war is spilling over into employment. Alix that is a good point. Now that we have this outoftheway, there were no huge fireworks. Next week, what is the most important data point . Subadra Going Forward over the next month, i will be looking at Consumer Retail sales, ppi, and the like to see if it will change the feds mind on policy. I would say the committee is still very divided on policy outcomes. Ism and nowkness in that we are not seeing that much of a weakness in the Employment Data, is that going to be sufficient for them to cut rates in october . Will the fed follow the market . Alix torsten, your data point . Torsten the theme has been the slate the train is coming down the tracks slower and slower. This uncertainty from the trade war, is that going away or not . That is the most important driver for Economic Data. Socgen,badra rajappa of thank you so much. Torsten slok of Deutsche Bank and Michael Mckee of bloomberg will be sticking with me. Now we want to get an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. Viviana hurtado is here. Viviana President Trump says the north korea missile tests will not delay the talks. Kim jonguns government fired a missile from a summary. North korea has been pushing the u. S. To ease sanctions in return for backing off its nuclear program. We go to hong kong, where protesters had a response to a government ban on facemasks. They are calling for a mass demonstration this weekend with everyone wearing masks. Invoking a rarely used law to ban facial covering. Will stayst pressure on wall street lenders. Fed officials estimating the move will reduce industrywide capital by 8 billion and lower liquidity demand. It is also expected to reduce the cost of compliance for smaller banks. The rules were put in place after the Global Financial crisis. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Hurtado. Ana this is bloomberg. Alix thank you very much. Coming up, it is the time of the year to have that awkward conversation with your boss, especially if you are a woman. We will get insight into how to go about it from the luminary ceo. We are looking at the private. Ayroll coming in 114,000 jobs the census was a nonstarter. Wage growth slowing to the lowest in a year, 2. 9 . The Unemployment Rate falling to the lowest since 1969, three point 5 . In the market, it is a mixed bag. You had a little bit of a bear flatten or, but now minor selling in the front end. Equity futures reversing earlier. Osses and now kind of flat the currency market not going anywhere. Bloomberg users, interact with us throughout the show. Go to gtv on your terminal. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg daybreak. ,oming up, Larry Kudlow NationalEconomic Council director. Now to your Bloomberg Business flash. The ceo of bp is stepping down. The British Energy company saying bob dudley will leave in february. Dudley has been with bp for 40 years. 2010ok over in ceo after in the deepwater after the deepwater catastrophe in the gulf of mexico. Jolt for wework. The company telling employees job cuts will take place later this month. The company saying about 2000 jobs could be a limited. Some of those cuts may be jobs and Business Units that may be spun off. United airlines is ramping up efforts to fill a gap in the number of pilots. United is offering new financial perks. The airline figures half its pilots will retire over the next decade. It needs to recruit 10,000 flyers to make up for that. I am Viviana Hurtado and that is your Bloomberg Business flash. The we wanted to focus on finance industry and how women are faring. Michael mckee looking at those numbers. Michael lets start by looking at the finance industry itself. In the past month we saw security dealers losing jobs. They have been the big winners. Security dealers have been adding jobs when banks are cutting back. This time it was the opposite. Bank workers gained jobs and securities dealers lost. As far as women, adult women gained jobs during the month, so much that it pushed down the female Unemployment Rate to 3. 1 . For all women, if you look at women 20 years old and older, which would include parttime workers in school, it is 2. 9 . Historic lows for women in the labor force. Are you making any money . It is the same story for finance it was for the overall economy. Unchanged in terms of average hourly wages. At this point, we see finance jobs still paying well above the overall average, but no big gain this month. Alix great breakdown. Here is someone who wants to help change that, particularly when it comes to women. We want to welcome cate luzio, luminary ceo along with Bloomberg Sonali Basak and torsten slok of Deutsche Bank still with us. Cate luzio has had a 20 year career on wall street, most of it in jp morgan, also signing up with Corporate Partners like Goldman Sachs to help invest in women in their corporation. Thanks for being here. A great day to talk to about this. What is your pitch, what is your success rate . Cate i spent 20 years and Corporate Banking for some of the biggest firms on wall street and what i was not seeing was investment in the pipeline. It was easy to poach women across the top, but are we looking at the actual pipeline . If we know more than 50 of new hires are women, why are we not see more promoted throughout leadership roles . Our pitch is around when we talk to corporate, especially banks, around making sure you are looking at employee engagement. Are women feeling invested and developed . A lot of times it is the tools and resources they need to be further promoted and ask for more money. Changedpayment has not much, but we do know bonuses are expected to be down. The year has gotten tougher. As people are building pipelines, how do they make sure the women are getting paid . How do you ask for bonuses when the pool is down . Cate it is not just the bonus. It is acting to be fairly paid and promoted early and often. It is having to picture yourself as an individual and go to your management and say this is why i deserve this raised. Bonuses are not guaranteed. They are variable, but they are part of a compensation package. Making sure you know your number and understand what your value is. Women need to benchmark much more often than they do today. They wait until the conversation and they do not know their number and they are not prepared. Luminarias trying to prepare women across all industries, but in particular in finance to ask to learn what they are worth. Torsten with the statistics and trent we have seen in recent years, is the trend going in the right direction, are you satisfied or not satisfied . How do you think about moving in the right direction or not moving in the right direction . Are movingew is we in the right direction. I do not think it is fast enough for anyone. Women made 500 billion less than men last year. We are over 200 years from the pay gap closing. How do we make that faster . It has stagnated. Companies need to look at their pipeline and investing in their pipeline. If they are only looking at the senior ranks, we hear so much about the senior level and we need to hear that. What about the women in the middle . What are we doing for the women in the middle to make sure they being paid fairly, paid and promoted on potential, not performance. We hear that is a big issue. Sonali there is in them torsten there is an important to make debate about women at the Federal Reserve level. That debate centered around what do economists do. Are you seeing a difference in some of the things we are discussing in finance relative to how it is outside of finance . Cate if you look at j. P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, they are doing a lot for investment in their pipeline. Look at j. P. Morgan. They have women on the move. Now it is much more internal and external. They are doing a lot, some of the banks. Particularly the smaller banks. We focus on the big banks. There is a woman i know it one of the big banks who mentors women about what they should be paid and how they should be paid. You started to touch on you are asking women to do something that has been taboo, which is canvas. To what extent do you think women are, and one thing you mentioned before is men do this all the time. You starting banking and you start surrounded by men. You here at the year end discussion, what did you get, how are much are you making, how are you positioning yourself . Women need to do that earlier in their career. Canvassing your friends, talking to your mentor, and using your sponsor. You are not the only one that should be advocating and promoting yourself. Promoting is not a bad word. You need to leverage your sponsor to be fighting for you when you are not. This idea that we sit around as women and talk about i need to get paid and get a better job, are we talking about the numbers . Lets not be afraid to start asking for what we want and getting the benchmark around what youre making so we can use that in our argument in our defense. Alix great stuff. So much more to be said in the conversation. I want to know the first three words you say. Cate luzio of luminary, thank you so much. Torsten slok, thank you so much. Sally bazi bloomberg, thank you , thank sonali basak you as well. We will take a look at the latest indicators. If you are getting in your car, check out Bloomberg Radio on sirius xm channel 119 in the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix in todays technically me. King, bill maloney joins the jobs number comes out. Equity market stronger. What are technicals telling you . Bill it has been a wild week. First resistance level you want to look at we had a huge reversal yesterday. That was positive. Resistance levels you want to look at today around 2926. That moves you to the 100 day moving average. Above that bullet brings you to the 50 day, that also brings you to the top of this turn, which we held yesterday. Alix what kind of followthrough . It seems like today nobody wants to trade. Bill i would love to see a weekly trait above the 100 day moving average. Alix lets get individual stocks that are moving. One is apple. There was a report they have added more suppliers for their phones, which could be more demand for the iphone 11. What are the charts telling you . Bill looking apple, the charts look pretty good. A solid uptrend from december lows. He might have some resistance from the alltime highs, around 230 urso. Overall apple looks pretty good. Alix costco had earnings after the bell yesterday. These kind of companies have been pretty good compared to other retail sectors. What you see in terms of the chart . Bill it is holding the 50 day. Looks very positive. Alix s p could close over 100 moving average. Good to see you as always. Bloombergs bill maloney. You can listen to him on the bloomberg. That does it for me on this jobs day. Ining up on the open club coming up in the open, jobs day continues. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york city for our audience worldwide. Im jonathan ferro. The countdown to the open starts right now. Jonathan coming up, it is payrolls friday in america. Solid jobs report helping to reduce the nervousness after a run of weak Economic Data put investors on it. Manufacturing bleeding to services. The market considers another rate cut and fed officials keep their options open. That is all ahead. An allstar panel in new york city. Anastasia amoroso of jp morgan, rick rieder of blackrock, Michael Collins of pgim, and mohamed elerian. That is all coming up on the program. Coming up from the white house, we will get full reaction from National EconomicCouncil Director larry kudlow. That is first on bloomberg at 9 30 eastern time. Your price action ahead of the opening bell looks like this. 25 y futures are positive on the s p 500