By as investors have been rushing into safer assets. , tlt hask at the flow taken in more than 4 billion this year, which is a record for seenund, while spy has outflows of 18 billion, even as we saw the s p 500 rally over the last six months. Interesting, those outflows on the s p 500. Gaine looking at a small this week. If you went to the beach and came back, the markets are basically unchanged. The roller coaster and selloff monday, rebound rally yesterday, then todays huge rally come the s p 500 up three days in a row. Lets put that into context. Over the last year and a half every time it has gone below that moving average, it has stayed below it for quite some time. Take a look at this in the middle of last year when volatility was wrestling with the moving average. In the Fourth Quarter last year, it was pretty ugly. May this year is interesting, back above two sessions. That suggest we have not seen a capitulation bottom yet for the s p 500. May be new lows ahead. Perhaps. Higher, now up for theth straight day come longest winning streak since september 2006. Guest and us is our cameron crise. I want your thoughts on germany. Speculation it would issue more debt, change its approach to its budget, but then confirmed it will stick with the status quo. Did anybody think germany was going to change . It was more hope than expectation. It was more hope than expectation. Lessally their demand is then their trade partners. Surplus in theet stock of debt is shrinking. Goal the governments to lower their debt, even as the ecb has bought a tremendous amount of German Government debt by its qe program. There are not enough german bonds or german demand out there. Joe hi swear by the end of the cycle that every bond trader will become a german domestic politics expert. See anythingont to be fearful of, no particular reason to think stocks cant go higher here. What do you like . Are there any areas in the recent volatility that have created Fresh Opportunities . I will stick with the names we have liked, and the ones we didnt like, avoid them. Meeting with adobe in learning about their b2b businesses as they develop their platform. They have one of the best cultures in the industry. It is a great place to work. There revenues turn out good growth quarter after quarter. They are managing their Balance Sheet well. Companies like that are the place to keep your money. Maybe it is the new defensive to on these growth companies. Ourselves foring earnings coming thick and fast. How much do you care about earnings, or is it about guidance . That guidance is important for shortterm moves. We have uber coming out. Second quarter adjusted net revenue at 2. 87 billion, missing the estimate of 3. 05. Growth china at 17. 6 million, analysts expecting 15. 83 billion. The losses in line with what analysts expected, never were. Quarter,lion second analyst looking for 5. 27 billion. Much optimism has been built into the stock. A fall of more than 9 . Our Companies Likely to be punish more at the moment if they fail to meet . It is the ford expectations. People were expecting things to be weak. If they guide to weaker numbers going forward, that could hurt the stock. These big companies, recent ipos, does the stumble tell you anything . Other than being taken for a ride by uber . Cycle at the point in the where we are starting to see distribution of expensive assets. We did not see it in the previous cycle, but certainly in the 1990s. You knew the top was coming when you had these companies with less than sparkling financials offering ipos to investors at expensive prices. It seemed like a great idea at the time, but didnt work out. One got thatr, no excited from day one. There was much less skepticism in public markets. We are down 10 . 12. 5 after hours. It is amazing how we see individual businesses beaten up. A final thought from you in data,of the next piece of key metric you are waiting for to see where the market in general and sentiment goes from here . , look at the chinese numbers. I look at the chinese numbers. To have china rebound and stabilize is assigned the market could go higher. Tweets thatadline will continue to lead to volatility, but you have to look longerterm and not focus on the current sentiment of the day and look at the earnings longterm. Our guest joining us from denver and cameron crise, thank you. Hopes, uberaised disappoints. Revenue shy of expectations, 2. 87 billion, analyst looking for north of 3 billion. Adjusted ebit. Of 650 million, better than expected, but the Second Quarter net loss was 5. 24 billion. , so includes ipo expenses onetime expenses that arent likely to repeat. It is a reminder of how uber has expectations. To the stock is down double digits after hours. Lets take ourselves back to yelp, once a glorious technology stock. It Second Quarter net revenue at 247 million. There cfo will step down, Charles Baker leaving. Share. Rnings per that does it for the closing bell. Next is whatd you miss . This is bloomberg. We are live from bloombergs while headquarters. Snapshot of the best rally in two. Whatd you miss . The yuan fix fixes markets. The s p 500 erasing its laws. ser fails to live up to yuan s optimism. Lyft lets get you an update with earnings. A mighty fall for uber. Lyft had put out a good set of somers, signposted expectation of profits. A 5. 24 billion loss. Notre also seeing revenue living up to the height, 12 increase year on year. The ceo saying 2019 is our peak investment year. Losses will come down, but not quick enough for investors. Activision blizzard moving lower, videogame maker. The company beating Second Quarter adjusted revenue and eps, but lowering guidance for adjusted eps, now . 20, the estimate . 40, so the company did raise fullyear guidance, so a mixed bag. Joe cbs down a little bit after hours. Not doing a lot. Eps 1. 16, a slight beat. There you go. A muted reaction. Joe markets have been whipped sawing. Guest told bloomberg that when volatility turns, people have to sell assets to meet margin calls. He is the former head of Capital Market strategy at Deutsche Bank and now ceo of a company that works with Portfolio Managers. He joins us now. Thank you for joining us. , it wassky moment popular around the financial crisis in bubbles up when we see volatility. What does it mean . It usually happens after that bull market where there is lots of speculation. Now, it is more than that. Bull market and in a battle at the top. In ais what you are end battle at the top. That is what you are seeing now. What is the minsky moment . It is good to know where you are going to get a sense of where you have been. In the last 11 years, the fed has kept real rates negative, nominal rates minus inflation is a negative rate. That is stimulating. Of negativeinds unintended consequences, asset bubbles, speculation, rising debt. The second is that if you go back 30 years, what you have had are huge benefits from globalization and free trade, the rise of china, so a lot of times these bear markets, minsky end with the catalyst. What they miss is we have unleashed a trade war without a fight with china in the renminbi above seven. Romaine if you are in and was trying to define when the next crisis might arise arrive, people look to the banking system, credit, but there seems to be some things of securing the picture this time around. I dont think you can look at the banking system. Regulation has changed the risk in the shadow markets. What i would tell advisors and Portfolio Managers is that this is a great opportunity for you to reevaluate your portfolio. What i mean is a classic portfolio is a 60 40 portfolio. What do you want out of a portfolio like that . Growth, inflation protection income, and downside protection. Now you have bonds where there are 15 trillion in bonds trading with a negative yield. If you take Interest Rate risks, you dont get compensated. If you take credit risks, you dont get compensated. Where are fixed income people going, dividend yielding stocks, from the top of the capital structure to the bottom of the capital structure. What could go wrong here . Central banks are going to lose control. The cuts you have seen are in excuse for the market to get bul led up again. They shouldnt look at it like that. There is a fair trade and what they should know is how they should look at it. What should they know . Bondsg only stocks and are not adequate anymore. An alternative doesnt mean hedge funds. Sure, you can get longshort equity that doesnt have a to 20 structure. I would rather have equity exposure, you can play the relative game of picking good stocks that versus relative performance. Dont needncome, you it in a money guaranteed, losing you can go to peer to peer lending or the private markets. You can go to pharmaceutical royalties. The list is endless when i talk about alternatives, but long only stock and bond Portfolio Managers, which is the majority, absolutely need to use this opportunity in this battle that is happening to reassess. Romaine you could do danish real estate as well. Our thanks. Bond yields are now negative. Romaine thank you for joining us. Guy, a former head of Capital Markets at Deutsche Bank. Us. K you for joining broadcom will buy semantic enterprises for 10. 7 billion. This was reported by bloomberg news. It is a cash deal. It is expected to close in broadcoms fiscal First Quarter ending in january. Coming up, uber hitting the brakes, sliding after hours as adjusted Revenue Misses estimates. That is next. This is bloomberg. Agreed to buycom semantics Enterprise Division for 10. 7 billion. This was in the works. This was after the full merger between the two companies collapsed as they debated over price. They agreed to sell this unit. Semantic out with earnings. It reported a variety of earnings metrics. Thateadlines relate to deal, 10. 7 billion. Lets return to the uber share price. Tanking, off 11 . Now. Get the analysis first of all, your take away from the numbers. Sure. They didnt give us guidance last quarter, but what stood out to me is the bookings growth number and the difference between that and the Revenue Growth. 37 Constant Currency Revenue Growth was 14. It tells you there is compression. Wereuber did is they aggressive with subsidies, and that drove the rate down and that is the differential. It was a beat on bookings, but in this on revenue because of the subsidies. Romaine where is that money going . They are trying to grab market share. Food delivery is a fragmented market. 10 off, five dollars off. I got three alerts earlier today from uber. The other key number was rider growth. It tapered a little bit, so a slight miss, but i dont think that is why the stock is down. It is down because of the Revenue Misses, reflection of the compression. Is can the question business be viable . Is that clear yet . Do we know that ridesharing, ridehailing can be a moneymaker . I think it can be a moneymaker for sure. Over the next year we will see demonstrate that. They have a profitable business model. The open question is how big can this business be, how much can they expand out of the cities into the suburbs, not just urban transportation, but trains of dollars people are spending on buying and maintaining their cars. That is the tree and dollar idea. Needso that we dont drivers at all. This becomes autonomous. Uber use to be aggressive about their projections of when Autonomous Vehicles would be available. We know they are a few years off, but we want to see both charting a path to dramatically expanding their market once the Autonomous Driving Technology is ready. They need to get more suburban customers, current car owners to give us some indication they are willing to give up their car and spend thousands of dollars they spend their car on uber and lyft. Romaine you have customers who are conditioned to want the lowerpriced, the lowest price out there. This isnt only these two companies, but throughout the sharing economy. How do you break free from that as a business when the model was built on being the lowest cost option . You go public. Then you have shareholder pressure, then you get out of a price war with a smaller competitor and start to grow your margins. I think we are seeing the beginnings of that with lyft. Net revenue per user number. S disappointing from uber we expected to see it higher. Eats andeak out uber break out the right hail business you will see that growing. They offered a lower cost option , but a much Higher Quality product. Over time consumers will get used to the idea this is a it is product, so rationally costing 25 more than taxis. I think they can hold pricing in the long run, but can they get the suburban customers . That is the big growth question. The food wars get ever more intense. , can theyquickly reaccelerate revenue . You cut down the subsidies in the Revenue Growth will grow. That is a topline metric that is very healthy. You cut down subsidies, takeaways go up, revenues go up. You notice that lyft stopped reporting. My guess is they have had even more impressive growth, but you are right, that is the number to watch. How the calle unfolds and whether we get outlook for the business and its growth. We want to thank our guests. Breaking news, ahead of an doordash tapping banks for 400 million ahead of that ipo. This is bloomberg. From the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. Everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. Thats why Xfinity Mobile created a Wireless Network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. And the best lte everywhere else. Xfinity mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Click, call or visit a store today. The u. S. Military warns naval forces may increase aggressive actions against american and allied commercial ships. Vessels in the area have received gps interference. American officials have advised u. S. Flagships to notify the u. S. And you kate was transmitting in the region. Narendra modi says the downgrading of kashmir from estate to a federally controlled territory will help end terrorism and separatism incited by pakistan. In a speech today, the Prime Minister describe changes by his government in cashmere has kashmir. One Spokesman Says the secretarygeneral is calling for maximum restraint. The position of the United Nations on this region is governed by the charter of the United Nations and the Security Council resolutions. The secretarygeneral also recalled the 1972 agreement on bilateral relations between india and pakistan. The agreement states that the cashmere is to be settled by peaceful means in accordance with the charter of the United Nations. The secretarygeneral is also concerned over reports of restrictions on the indian side of cashmere, which could exacerbate the human rights situation in the region. The client that report that the deputy Prime Minister is threatening to bring down the government unless his demands for changes in the cabinet are met. His call for the finance minister is to be replaced. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Joe lets talk about the earnings after hours, starting with uber, now tumbling. The company missing earnings, estimates, after the subsidies, Revenue Growth only 14 . Bookings solid, but you can see this company is paying a lot to continue the share fight against its competitors. Lets look. Down 27 . D the ceo is leading after nine years. They have made an acquisition, this is theypany try to expand their foothold, splashing some cash. Of six and 75 million. Growth in revenue 40 , record, so splashing cash on key executives. 5. 5 , the cloudx down storage site reported earnings above estimates, but investors are reacting to a slowdown in Revenue Growth. Quarter, a18 on the slow down from 22 over the previous quarter yearoveryear. The call starts at the top of the hour. , members ofd equinox are threatening to boycott after one investor had a luncheon at his hampton home for president trump. Statementsssued distancing themselves, calling him a passive investor and reaffirming dedication to inclusion and equality. For his part, he defended the fundraiser saying it has always been an active participant in the democratic process and that he agrees and disagrees with trump on certain issues. For more, lets welcome our guest. We live in an era of corporate activism, people taking it out on companies. This is just an investor. The company did not do anything. How difficult of a spot is this . It is interesting. To your point, there is a level of abstraction we have not seen. Appraising donald trump and people deciding not to buy under armour. These companies, including equinox in soul cycle, he is a passive investor, one of the number of investors. This is not a company he founded or owns entirely, not even central to his business, which is real estate. Romaine when i look at the donors or invitees, it is a typical whos who of republican donors. These are not controversial characters. Donating to any republican president ial candidate. Im wondering if times have changed were companies have to be more thoughtful about these things. We have seen the controversy that Companies Like nike have got into by embracing certain causes that might have upset a certain demographic. We have seen Companies Successful picking either side, then other companies and people like stephen ross who end up with tripping up over it. One of the things ross miscalculated was how fast this was going to go. This was a criticism that came up wednesday because one of the players on the dolphins tweeted about the fact he was holding this fundraiser, while he had a foundation that supported racial equality, so he was caught flatfooted and a lot of people found the statement on that to be disingenuous. What are we seeing in terms of people leaving . It is a good question. It is hard to tell. Both ceos of equinox in soul cycle making sure people know that ross is not pulling the strings, but the focal this is you hear about boycotts in the immediacy does not always translate to canceled subscriptions or people refusing to shop at specific stores, so it will be a while before we know fully, but i would not be surprised if there was more attention. People have cool switched to palatine now. Peloton now. Romaine coming up, refinancing fever sweeping the u. S. As mortgage holders look to lock in low rates. This is bloomberg. Instabilityolitical continues to unfold. The defective leader, deputy per minister, calling for a confidence vote on the government next week. ,e is the leader of the league now in a Messy Coalition with the fivestar Movement Come up on the opposite ins of the political spectrum. The fraction has been arguing amid heightened tensions. An election is being called for. Thanks. Whatnow for a look at stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. A new jersey family plagued by spooky letters mailed to a dream home in 2015. They just sold the property at a loss. The family sued the former owners in 2015, claiming after closing they received the first of a series of unnerving letters ycher. By the wa a story on mlbs effort to reinvigorate viewership, taking it to mexico and london, and now betting on iowa as its next video. The yankees and white sox will play a 2020 game at the field of dreams site in iowa. Mlb said it will begin construction on a real 8000 seat stadium there this month. Tictoc is reporting puerto rico is a new governor, the third in a week, and has been sworn in after the Supreme Court cleared the way. The new governor has been targeted by protesters for alleging corruption. You can follow those stories on terminal, bloomberg. Com, and tictoc on twitter. Joe mortgage refinancing fever sweeping the u. S. , mortgages at the lowest since 2016, having homeowners running. Joining us now is the person who covers the credit market for bloomberg news. Mortgage brokers cant take a weekend anymore because they are inundated with requests to refinance . Brokers were reporting 60 workdays,hour sending emails at 2 00 a. M. It has been picking up as rates fall. Is not is also stunning only the talking of working so onlineut there is a show as people are searching. Upgoogle searches were around 54 around refinancing, so word is getting out that rates are lower and a lot of people are saying it is time to put in this phone call. If you are a homeowner, this is great news, but what if you are an investor . You have to be quick. The big thing there is repayment fees. That refinancing comes out of your mbf fund. You get in trouble when you bought it, because if it pays back to fast, you are out of little cash. That is not great. We have seen them rise as Mortgage Rates have fallen. Romaine refinances his mortgage, can he get somebody on the phone . I have been talking to people. November,u bought in you can still save some money. Less,have been doing firing people as rates have been rising. You dont want to stack up right away when rates fall, because you may have to fire someone again. Is everyone waiting for rates to fall further . People think they can time the market. One broker told me that i have been in this industry for a long time. Every time this happens, people dont call me until rates start rising again. The advice is to get in while you can. Joe some great stuff. Thank you. Erik schatzker spoke with the cofounder and cochairman of oaktree capital, who weighed in on the feds decision to cut rates. It is unusual. We stimulate the economy when it is doing poorly, and want to wake it up from the doldrums. We generally dont stimulate the economy after 10 good years. We usually except that there bb and flow to the cycle and there might be a justify procession. We have the lowest Unemployment Rate in 50 years. You usually dont stimulate at that time, so the fed can. Timulate should it do so, is it the feds job i get the feeling you dont think it should. I dont think it should. I dont think the feds job is to make sure there is not a recession. ,hat the fed chair tends to say and jay powell said it last month, and i have a quote from september 2007, where they said we would do what it takes to keep the expansion going. Its at the feds job to keep expansion going forever . I dont think so. , what i woulded do is when the economy is roaring, i would try to cool it off so there is not too much inflation. When it is weekend not creating jobs, i would stimulate it ak and not creating jobs, i would stimulate it. What does that mean for investors . Means that savers and moneys and people with are going to have trouble getting returns. All the returns in eight from base rate, and the lower originate from the base rate, and so there will be more wealth piled up by the people who have assets, and it will be harder for people who have a little bit of savings to get a return. Lets bring you more earnings. News corp. Reporting revenue ,hat missed the lowest estimate Fourth Quarter 2. 5 billion down percent yearoveryear. For 2. 5ate had been billion, not far that, but still lackluster. Since, below the previous year, but beating expectations. . 07, below the previous year, but beating expectations. Facebook could be exposed to billions in damages. In london, the 50th anniversary of one of the most famous album pictures in history. Four crossing abbey road outside the emi recording studios. Hundreds of fans for there to watch. The original picture was on the. Over of abbey road Cathay Pacific is the latest business to take a hit. Ticket sales dipped. They have demonstrated future bookings as well. That is your business flash update. Planning theina biggest futures market overhaul since 2015. We will discuss the latest. This is bloomberg. Romaine china modeling the biggest changes to its futures market since 2015, making it easier to execute bearish traits. Ahn. With more is shery when you look at the futures what are theya, trying to do . How broad will this be . We have to remember the 2015 stock crash in china, then authorities started cracking down on the number of contracts that could be held in the market, so those rules have eased, but when it comes to futures trading, we only have Foreign Investors with access to , iron ore, but not the entire commodities market. People talking to bloomberg say they are looking to remove those restrictions on foreigners trading commodity futures in their in eternity in their entirety. What a better time to have more foreign capital coming in if you do go ahead with these are ed. Trictions getting eas as we see trade tensions and a weakening yuan, this could be an opportunity for more foreign butstment, foreign capital, a lot of the restrictions that have been eased in the past year or so, many have not been implemented yet. In january, they announced they would scrap Foreign Ownership limits and so forth until 2020, but really nothing has happened yet. Over, ahing hangs shadow over all of this, trade tensions and whether that could be a weapon in some way, but what do you think about beijing and general opening up its markets . What have we seen so far . We have seen some changes. In the automobile sector, we have heard of four ownerships that for ownership of ownership ofull ventures. We have seen some of those changes. When it comes to using some of those tools has a weapon in these trade tensions against the u. S. , you have to speculate. , we the yuan weakening continue to see a higher or stronger than expected yuan fixing, and the pboc governor same the weaker yuan will not be used as a tool in these trade disputes, but in fact, the weakness is allowed, not that beijing is doing anything to they areuan extra trying to support it. It comes at a time of heightened tensions with the u. S. You post a popular show. What else are you looking at later today . China and the slow down in the chinese economy, but we are seeing a bounce back, especially export numbers for july, not a lot, but when it comes to u. S. Dollardenominated exports, growth of 3. 3 . We have seen centralbank decisions this week, a lot of bias towards easing, but at the same time, trying to hold their ground. We have australia with two consecutive cuts. They held their ground this week because they need to see the changes that occur. It is really a balancing act all across, whether the fed and the domestic economy against the global economy, it is the same issues with Asian Central banks that see and the way to back given where the fed is going, but at the same time they dont want to pull the trigger too fast, right . For more on these stories, dont miss daybreak asia. Key data for the Second Quarter is due, surprising the contraction. Joe i would look at u. S. Producer prices. Romaine more earnings. An update from pg e on its plan to ask at bankruptcy when we get Earnings Results before the open. That is all for romaine whatd you miss . Joe have a great evening. This is bloomberg. From the couldnt be prouders to the wait did we just winners. Everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you preorder a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. Emily im emily dying in go in this is bloomberg technology. Plummeting after hours after missing estimates across the board. What is the path to profitability . We have full analysis. Thus, several advertisers tell bloomberg the Software System used to run campaigns on facebook and instagram us crashing regularly for hours, if not days. We will tell you what is going on