A global bond rally after the central bank moved. Crude oil 5. 6 higher after President Trump tweeted that iran made a big mistake. 57 dollars a share. Oil companies and Gold Companies pushing stocks higher. Gold futures trading close on 13. 90. We have oracle being one of the bigger performers. Course, we are waiting for slack to start trading on the nyse. 33 to 36 looks like the spread right now. The dollar firmly on offer weakening against every single g10 currency. Trading is down quite sharply. Out itsaking alltime high. Fx ratecohead of strategists is joining us in london. Good afternoon. Is the dollar going down more sustainably . It depends on what dollar. Probably the dollar gets a little against emerging markets with hi carrie, but against the euro, if that is what you mean, it will be harder. The onlyhe fed is not factor. Other Central Banks are becoming more dovish. The ecb as well. The level of Global Growth is not a set up that allows the dollar to weaken aggressively. We need stronger Global Growth for the dollar to strengthen more sustainably than current levels. 2 on a u. S. Sub tenyear. How low does that go . It defends on the environment and it depends on the environment and the g20. In the downside scenario we could rally quite a bit between steepening and receiving. Receivinge outright rather than steepening. A lot is in the front. A very long and model variation. Vonnie is the u. S. Bond market, bond market, receiving or sending data . That is a good question. I think it is leading for sure developments and other markets. What we have recently also also becomes sometimes a binding condition policymakers. Particularly at times when miscommunication can lead to the tightening of financial conditions. Although it is reflecting risks, which are already out there and potentially the data of the future, at the moment it is one of the more forwardlooking i would say. Vonnie vonnie at what point to be forcedchair to do something about this global bond market rally as opposed to the economy . Meaning, at which point does it go too far and then the market expectation needs to be addressed . Vonnie right. It is not today and definitely not yesterday, for at theple reason that moment Inflation Expectations are coming off. You have the potential risk after the g20. You havent seen convincing evidence if the data will turn up or down. It is not deteriorating a lot on the growth side, but there are certain risks in parts of the economy. We dont have a set up where it pays a lot for a central banker to go against the wave and tell the bond market it has gone too far. Guy when the fed is hiking and likes to do so in easy to understand increments. When it is cutting, that is not always the case. Pricedmore than 25 bids in for next month. How would you rate the chances of a basis point cut . Our economy thinks they are pretty high. What i would say for the bond market is when the fed has told you that it is pretty likely to deliver 25, and you know that there is a risk ahead of you facing the g20, you have to price in the possibility beyond 25 basis points. You are priced somewhere between what is very likely and a somewhat likely outcome, basically. Guy in terms of your expectations, you think i am wondering where does 31 basis points over now, where does that put us on the scale . More still to come in the process of pricing that in . Do we have more to come . As we approach the g20 we expect that to go higher or lower . Im going higher. I would go higher as well. As long as we dont have clarity, i would think it would price more. Now, the main question is is this a oneoff . Is it a oneoff followed by Something Else . Is it something that will happen more gradually . All of these make a huge difference in a bond market where we expect a quick first move and a number of subsequent moves. What is it telling us . Guy i think we are struggling to here. I will ask another question. I hope everyone can hear us. Lets talk about how it relates. We will talk about the ecb in more detail. , thecb and the fed relationship is pretty clear. Draghi would not have delivered that the speech with the effect coming out the next day. How does draghi stay in front of the fed . I think what draghi did was masterful. We have gotten quite used to that approach. Whether he knew something, whether he took a look at the market, speaking of the risk of a more dovish fed was high, what draghi did was to preempt the that themake it clear ecb does have the space, if it needs, and we would concur to that. Ecbof the things that the would not want at this stage is for financial conditions to tighten. There is this side of the market that says theres nothing the ecb can do. We have reached the limit of what the ecb can do. The euro would increase in anstyle move. They want to make sure theres more they can do, they can respond, and they havent reached the end of that, which has counterfactual we probably limited the upside in the euro. Much of thes how euro can move Going Forward. Guy it will b interesting if hashis successor the same credibility of delivering the market of action without delivering on that action. The cbs cohead of fx rates strategy is going to stay with us. Intore to tune surveillance tomorrow morning for an exclusive interview with the Federal Reserve vice chair will stop looking forward to that conversation. 12. 84. it is at 1 the british pound is also stronger versus the u. S. Dollar. The dollar index down. 4 . High,e major indices also but still booming. 10 are up between. 7 and. It has been the best s p month of june for years. We are looking at an s p of 7 on the month already. This is bloomberg. Vonnie from new york i am vonnie quinn. I am guyondon, johnson. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Courtney President Trump tweeted iran has made a very big mistake. A u. S. Drone at the entrance of the persian gulf under disputed circumstances, escalating tensions in the region that has been on the edge of military confrontation for weeks. Was inys the aircraft iranian airspace. The u. S. Says that the drone was in International Airspace and that the attack was unprovoked. President erdogan says that turkey will retaliate. Erdogan calls his relationship good but hisally relations with people under mr. Trump are far different. In the u. K. , conservative members of parliament will select the final two candidates to replace theresa may. Boris johnson will be joined on todays balance by todays andot by michael hungove jeremy hunt. The cost of living is lower than in bigger cities. The paychecks are getting fatter. Thansalaries grew faster other major cities. They were 15 over a three year. Ime t that is according to the rick routing platform hired. Global news, 24 hours a day onair and on tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Vonnie we are back to the chestnut, what is good for stocks is good for bonds. It is a game of Central Banks versus a global slowdown. Abigail the Central Banks helping stock investors on the day. Risk Asset Investors indeed. Up 7 10 of 1 for the fourth day in a row, on pace for the third week higher. The emerging markets are benefiting more, up. 6 , the best since early january. Emerging markets are more sensitive to liquidity. Crude oil, up 5. 5 . The best day since december of last year being helped by a weak dollar on the dovish tone of the fed. Worstllar on paper, the day since january. The s p, it is a strong week. Pop on banks, we had the tuesday as the ecb went somewhat of issue. Then a little bit of stalling around even in, then we have a move up. It may suggest we could see another gain if not on friday, into next week. On the bloomberg there is reason to think that the gains could continue. We looked at a range of flip saws on trade uncertainty last january and a round of fed profit outlook into september. Then trade fears coming back. Perhaps too much of a hawkish fed. The fed becomes more dovish. A bear pattern has more, suggesting we could see the s p 500 trade to the area met around 30. 50. To theday we see gainers upside. Oracle putting up a good quarter. The outlook from microsoft hitting an alltime high ahead which we aregpo covering. The downside financial is being dragged as the 10 year yield is below 2 . Investors worry that their lending activity could be hurt by falling yields if that continues. Guy thank you. Central banks talking about cutting right now. Some are still hiking and the norse bank is one in norway delivering another rate hike today and singling that there is more to come. Isask governor olson why he tightening. It is a gradual increase. Growth in our economy is robust. Low. Nemployment is inflation in our case is above the target. In the coheadng of fx and rates strategy from ubs. How much higher do they go and how much higher do they go today . A lot of people have it as the best performing currency this year. It stays close to the hiking path they have signaled. They delivered the hike they have signaled. Today was a hawkish hike. The analysis is excellent. If you have been following it you see that they looked deeply in the economy and at potential imbalances because of the gap. It is one of those places that appears to be a stronger link between neighbor market capacity realization and inflation. From their side, we have laid out a clear path. The main question for investors has been, with a lot of forecasters forecasting strength, the bank is presignaling quite a bit of the pace which they will go. Why hasnt the knocking moved, the kona moved . There is the general belief in markets that Central Banks would move. You have seen many cases of Central Banks that have warned and not gone all the way. I hear the confirmation from the ongoing confirmation has been a good signal for investors and the currency is cheap. Not just cheap versus the euro, its main encz mark, but against its main benchmark, but against neighboring countries. The norwegian central bank, closest to where they are from, there is value to unlock their currency. Guy another central bank that talks about hiking and never delivered, Governor Carney and the bank of england will stop today there was expectation we could see two members of voting for a hike. The market does not believe that we have cuts priced into the blink of england bank of england. How quickly do we see the bank of england having to turn . The bank of england was, as you rightly said, the central bank that many thought would be the first to hike quite a few years back. Stage they have two issues. An old one and a new one. The old one is obviously the main factor that they are using or inputting in their framework as a main factor of uncertainty still there. They dont know what the relation of the u. K. Will be with the eu, and there is a chance that the framework could be better than the baseline. There is also a chance that it isnt. I cleave the fed, the risk isnt likely, the fed, the risk isnt worth taking. The old issue is we are getting more dovish in the world with Central Banks becoming more dovish. The u. K. Has a very large exposure to Global Growth. Whether you see it from the balance of payments, from the Global Growth, in terms of the sector and the u. K. Growth is exposed to, the slowing down of the world and the potential Downside Risk of global expectations, they spend their inputs. Their inputs are making investors think that it is going to be harder for the bank of england Going Forward. Vonnie back to the fed for a moment. Is the dot plot of any use given how far away it is from what the market is suggesting . Not just dot plots, but is Forward Guidance broken . I dont think so. A lot of people in the market that would think that the dot plot is something that is completely confusing or dated. What i would say is in the past there has been a pretty substantial vehicle for the fed to signal shifts. There are large gaps between what the market was pricing and plot. T there were also periods where volatility the markets used arise stayed high until the fed with mostly come closer to the market. In ourone occasion now research where we are showing that if the fed did not lower risk higherhey would theet volatility and b shift in the dot was larger. Substantially larger than the Economics Team was expecting, which generally was a surprise to us, and generally was one of several factors that made the market even move further to the dovish side after the first conference of the fed. Vonnie credibility used to be a huge issue when it came to a fed chair. Im not sure how much credibility means in the present day, but does Jerome Powell have it . I think that there is a special level of credibility that goes with the fed chairman, any fed chairman. The conditions that this chairman, the previous chair, is chairman bernanke have exceptionally difficult and the level of uncertainty is exceptionally high. We can discuss what we would have done if we were in those shoes, but the reality is i would much rather have a central banker aware of the risks than a central banker that downplays the risks significantly if they are meaningful. Guy thank you. Head of fx and rates strategy over at ubs. We are nearly there. Vonnie youre talking about slack. 36 . 50. Slack indicated to open, the Reference Price of 26 a share will stop this is bloomberg. Vonnie gains across the board. We have taken out our intraday and closing highs for the s p 500 that we are moderating the gains right now. The dow is up to two thirds of 1 . 1 . Nasdaq of 6 10 of the Bank Offerings today, naturally after rates fell yesterday. The vix index is up, but we are below 15. Europe, it has faded a little this afternoon towards the close. Up around half of 1 . Clearly what is going on with the fed is a factor. Oil stocks have been a story in europe. We have seen a sharp price in the rise of oil partly down to the fed and partly down to what has been going on in the gulf. The european is next. We will get the closing prices in just a moment. When you rest on a leesa hybrid mattress, bedtime is no longer simply the time you go to sleep. Its time to switch off and catch up. Enjoy me time, and we time. 40 winks or 8 hours solid. 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Bunnie said a few moments ago the Banking Sector has been under pressure. That is why we have seen the spanish market trading down lower. Europe the main markets, where the real liquidity is all trading in positive territory. The oil sector has been one of the major ones that has outperformed. The banks of underperformed. Lets give you an idea of what has been going on to give you an idea of whether rotation has been here. It is interesting in terms of reaction. Technology has been an upside move today. We have seen that. It is small in europe read what does heavy waiting effect is oil and gas. What is interesting you see a mix of cyclicals. Industrial goods has done well today. The Mining Sector has treated strongly. Commodities generally recently gas. Along with oil and the bottom end of the market is where we see weakness, the Banking Sector. There are stories here we will talk about in a moment, which are single stock issues. Thanks generally have treated lower on both sides of the atlantic, down by 1. 2 here in europe. Lets show you the individual names. This is where life gets interesting. After the woodford story, people have been getting nervous about the relationship with liquidity. Funds with redemption risk on a daily basis but illiquid assets access has been the concern surrounding this story for this is a Major European Bank trading down by 11. 76 . Ell had a bit of cold water poured on it today, finishing lower. In the metal carnival. There is a story on both sides of the atlantic. Cuba is a factor in this. It has dragged the travel section down sharply, finishing down by 11 . It is the banks where we see weakness, not only on the fed, but idiosyncratic risk, natixis and tobacco sabado banco sabadell. Vonnie we are seeing upside to the indices. Took500 took out an a closing high earlier in the session come up. 5 now come a little bit of a drag for the likes of the banks here in the u. S. On that 10 year yield and the curve generally, it is down to 1. 98 . Crude Oil Continues to climb almost 57 a barrel at this point. Oil and gas are doing well. 2. 9 , so quite moderate gains but nevertheless climbing higher. Up 8. 5 ,k at oracle, one of the best performers today. Some analysts say it is slightly overdone. To oraclekeptical as itself but cloud stocks are seeing halo affects today. Energyhalo effect from from the better performers. Lets take a look at the losers today. You pointed out carnival. It is down 10 plus. Norwegian and Royal Caribbean also seeing that halo effect. Some of the other leisure and travel Companies LikeUnited Continental and American Airlines jetblue is ordering some airbus airplanes. That crossed the bloomberg. We are also waiting trade on the new york stock exchange. My understanding was that once again inside a dollar that will start to get the first trade coming through. They want that bid a little tighter before we get that to actually happen. Joining us now from bloomberg technology, standing by at the stock exchange. Spotify dropped sharply as it came to market via this rate. How is the current pricing you are seeing down there in where we could ultimately close with work today . That is the big question. We saw the Reference Price, which is supposed to be a guide for opening, at 26. That was tied to the private trading before previously in february and may. Now we are seeing the price go up. Clearly there is some confidence from advisors like goldman and citadel toley and say that this start could open much higher than that indicated price. Vonnie it is fascinating. At 7. 1any is valued billion trade we are looking at at least double that. The market cap is likely to be double, maybe even triple that. Eric it is amazing. This range we are getting, close to 19 billion market cap. Very significant. Slack, from silicon valley, has messagingn this sexy app that investors knew was hot and had a lot of gross but there was always this question are these valuations sustainable . There has been so much enterprisearound serving companies. We saw that with zoom. There is a lot of enthusiasm around this sector and around this particular company. Why are we getting this kind of move higher today . They are not issuing new stock. This is direct to market. The market can value this business and put it on with its peer groups. I am curious to get your take on why we are getting this uplift. Eric i think part of it is that we saw a range of prices on the private market. Iople were willing to pay think there was a 31 share basically price. Then the volumeweighted average came down to 26. Part of what we are seeing is the tradeoff between the amount of shares they want to sell and the prices they are going to get. If they sell fewer shares, they can sell at a higher price. There is some decisionmaking to make their about how much you want to sell. Clearly there has been an appetite at a higher rate. It is something that out and where you want to price it sussing that out and deciding where you want to price it. Down at thewcomer nyse. Bloomberg lp is an investor in slack. Vonnie back now to the middle east and tensions between the flaring up as iran shot down an american spy drone. Foreign minister tweets frequently. He just tweeted that iran does not seek war but will defend its skies and is going to go to the United Nations with its trouble. War saying it does not seek but will defend its skies and take u. S. Aggression to the United Nations. We know that President Trump earlier tweeted that iran had made a big mistake. Analyst joinsense us from washington, d. C. Is this all bluster or is this headed somewhere we do not want to be going . There is always the danger of that. One of the big concerns is that you get into this escalatory fashion where they do something and we have to respond and then we do something and they respond to that. It becomes a dangerous situation where the potential for escalating out of hand is real. Rob, the fact that zarif is tweeting this would seem to indicate that the iranian government is probably on the same page. There has been some speculation today that the Republican Guard conducted this action kind of independently of what was coming out of the government. The fact that we have this tweet seems to suggest that is not the case. Am i misreading the situation . Rob i do not know that you are mistreating it but im careful to determine what factions in the uranian government are doing what. Our intelligence as to what the dynamics inside that regime are is not that great. It could quite possibly be that this was a rogue action and now the foreign minister is trying to dial things back where it could be a very intentional thing by the regime, again trying to show they are standing up to the United States under the increased pressure that has been on them lately. Vonnie that is rob levinsohn. Wrapping up the european markets per the action is done. We saw a sharp drop during that action process per the ftse 100 finishing the day only up by. 3 . Alsoax and the cac dropping for those five minutes producing a down drop. The market has been trending lower into the auction. It was a continuation of that during that process. If you want to carry on with market coverage, you can tune into the Bloomberg Radio cable show, which will take place or start broadcasting at the top of the hour, carrying on the conversation, very much focused on the central bank story today. Guy lets get a first word news update. Iran has shut down a iran has shut down a u. S. Drone and President Trump tweeted that iranians made a big mistake. The incident took place near the entrance to the persian gulf and disputed circumstances. Uranian media says the aircraft iranian media says the aircraft was in iranian space. The attack has escalated tensions in a region where they have been high for several weeks. The senate could deliver a rebuke to President Trump today. Lawmakers will vote on halt armsns to sales to saudi arabia and other countries. The president overruled congress and decided to go ahead with sales. If both houses of Congress Passed a resolution, the president is likely to veto them. Beijing is willing to play a positive role in getting rid of Nuclear Weapons on the korean peninsula. Xi became the First Chinese leader in 14 years to visit north korea. Usend cam were expected to the visit to stake out Common Ground for their struggle with President Trump. Swedish Officials Say they will not appeal a decision not to detain wikileaks founder join us julianoin assigned sange. He is currently serving a 50 week sentence in britain for jumping bail in 2012. He is fighting at tradition to the u. S. , which accuses him of publishing secret documents. Global news 24 hours a day, on the air at tictoc, on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie lets get back now to slacks listing on the new york stock exchange. The ticker is work and we are waiting for that indication that slack will open at 37, 38. You must be very pleased, at least so far. When you invested, what did you value slack at . We were really excited 3. 5 years ago when we invested in slack because we saw the potential for the company to have great growth. We have seen that since our ownership over the last 3. 5 years, even over the last couple of years. Growingany is still over 60 . We do not see that often in companies of this size. I think if that is a harbinger of things to come the future looks bright for slack. Valuationwise, it looks like the most recent funding value slack at 7. 1 billion. What is it valued at now to your opinion . Glenn we will see where the stock opens today and where it closes. There is a lot of demand on a per share basis. It looks like the price is going to open quite a bit higher than those 7 billion 7 billion valuations from the past. It looks like investors are looking at the future with slack and thinking that there is a lot of opportunity for the company to continue to grow, ultimately to deliver profits to investors. I think that is where the excitement is coming from. Guy if it goes out the door 38, will you be a seller . We have several million shares. We are looking at that now. Our view is very longterm with the company. If you think about what slack is really doing, they are helping Large Companies become more agile in keeping innovation in their organizations and helping workers become more capable. That is a very big market. There are 10 million daily active users today of slack. When we first invested, that number was about 2 million. The growth has been tremendous to hear, but our view is there is a lot more opportunity. There is well north of 100 million knowledge workers in the world who are on Office Products from microsoft, for example. All of that is available market for slack. We have a longterm orientation with our holdings of the company. Assume that is not a no but you still believe there is further upside to come. Glenn we do. Guy how much more upside you think there is . If it goes out the door 38, where is it in a years time . Where is it in five years . If the upside youre talking about crystallizes, how does that get represented in the price of stock . Glenn if you look at salesforce. Com, that company went public 15 years ago. Investors who bought shares on the first day of trading are up about 40 x two today. That company is worth north of 100 billion. You can look at other layers that have done well like workday. That company is worth over 50 billion. You can look at more recent ipos in the Cloud Software space. These companies are trading at significant multiples. I think slack fits into that category. I do not see why overtime if slack continues to execute the market they have it so big they can become cap you companies with valuations similar to service now overtime. Is it working for slack when other messaging services did not gain the traction slack has . A bit morek is quite than just a messaging service. That is why it is working so well. I mentioned that Large Companies are adopting slack because they are feeling a lot of pressure to innovate and to become more responsive to customer needs. If you look at slack, whether it is persontoperson, across work teams, across functions, or even across whole companies, you can use slack and bring data in from other applications because it is a platform. Over 1000 applications that are well integrated into slack. Over a halfmillion developers are everyday writing applications into slack. When that collaboration occurs on the platform, it occurs with rich data, which makes the collaboration more effective. That is why companies are adopting slack. If you look at the growth, they have reported in their last quarter for example on average net dollar retention of 138 . That means the average copy that adopts slack grows over 30 in its usage year on year. That is an indication that people are getting a lot of value from the collaboration platform. I look at it far more than just messaging. Amazingit has been an year for ipos. , you also haveio the likes of open door, peloton, airbnb. What is next to come to market . Glenn you name to some of the companies we are excited about. Is so muchthere excitement in the Public Market for growth that all our companies that have achieved meaningful scale and are growing rapidly are thinking about should our next financing be in the Public Market . It is more on the table then it has been for the past several years but we will have to wait and see as to who decides to pull the trigger. Vonnie either way, congratulations on today. Do come back again. Glenn solomon, managing partner and a slack investor. We should note that bloombergs venture beta capital is an investor in slack, which is now indicated to open between 37 and 38. Guy we are on tenterhooks. Coming up, or stock of the hour why oracle is the best performer on the s p today. Find out next. This is bloomberg. Rg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. Shares of french bank fell to their lowest in three years. An Investment Fund owned by the bank. There are concerns about liquidity and Corporate Bond holdings. Deutsche bank faces a criminal investigation over Money Laundering allegations. According to the new york times, some of the transactions being looked at arlington to President Trumps soninlaw, jared kushner. Bush a bank has said it is cooperating with Government Deutsche Bank has said it is cooperating with government investigations. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Guy time for our stock of the hour. Lets turn our attention to oracle, stocks up 8 today, surging very sharply, trying to get a new record high for the company. Lets find out what is going on. Kailey leinz has more. Kailey this is a pretty rare gain on the back of earnings. It has fallen six out of the past seven. This is the biggest posted gain for oracle since the First Quarter of 2017. It is a revenue story. Revenue growth has been falling off in recent quarters but grew 1 in this quarter, coming in at 11. 1 billion dollars, beating expectations and contribute into optimism. The company says that momentum should continue. They forecast Revenue Growth of up to 2 in the current quarter. Analysts are skeptical about the sustainability of this growth. Morgan stanley saying that evidence suggests that when you look at the top line it suggests that it is going to be muted Going Forward. Ubs saying we are not out of the woods yet, although investors are not buying that. They are buying shares today. Vonnie what segment are driving this growth . About clouds all applications for oracle. Of fusion hr growing 30 in this quarter. They have been chasing that growth. License sales were up 15 . That is helping offset the declines in its legacy harbor business, like services, which fell 11 . The founder said that the older oracle units are melting away and we do not care. It is all about the cloud Going Forward for oracle. Guy great stuff. Thank you. Oracle having a pretty solid day. Markets having a solid day. Vonnie we are still waiting on slacks first trade. That helps with sentiment. Coming up, balance of power westin. He will speak with balance of power with david westin. He will speak with a senator about fighting facebooks push into crypto currency. Smith Steve Scalise also appearing. We are seeing a pullback but it is still a rally. The s p 500 at 29. 46. 2946. This is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the world of business. Today, escalating conflict in the persian gulf. Kevin cirilli on Prime Minister to knows Prime MinisterJustin Trudeaus visit to washington. The story continues to develop in iran. Give us a sense of what is going on. It seems like everyday there is a new development the tensions between the u. S. And iran. What we do know is that the iranian officials, the military shot down a u. S. Navy drone. There is a dispute over whether that drone was over International Waters or iranian territory. Latest development after a spate of attacks on oil tankers in the gulf starting last month, coming again in the last few days. President trump this morning tweeting that iran has made a big mistake by doing this. But we do not know is what the