benjamin netanyahu is now expected to make key decisions about the gaza war. french footballer kylian mbappe has said "extremists are at the gates of power" as campaigning for parliaments elections kicks off in france. polls suggest that marine le pen�*s group, the far—right party national rally, could obtain a majority for the first time in its history. russia continues its offensive in ukraine — as its troops make advances around kharkiv, second largest city in the country. although the army has been keeping them at bay, president zelensky has warned the army desperately needs to enlist more troops, to hold the line and push russia back. the head of nato says at least 20 member countries will spend more than 2% of their income on defence this year, more than double the number of five years ago. jens stoltenberg was speaking in washington ahead of talks with president biden. good evening. nigel farage and reform uk have launched their election manifesto today, although party leader insists their "offer" to the nation should be called a "contract" to distinguish it from the manifestos of other parties, which mr farage says are never fulfilled. we are going through a breakdown of trust in politics where manifestos, one after another, can keep making the same promises, and no—one believes now, frankly, a word that they say, which is why today specifically is not a manifesto launch. because if i say to you "manifesto", your immediate word association is "lie", and that is, i think, wholly unsurprising. buoyed by the yougov poll that showed reform leading the tories, farage told the today programme the morning his plan this election is to "establish a bridgehead" in parliament with however many mps they can send to westminster, that will allow him this next five to build a "big national campaigning movement around the country". take a listen to this exchange with my college, justine webb. if there were to be an election, then, in 2029, the next election after this one, you would be the head of that. would that mean that you would be vying at that election to be prime minister? yes, absolutely. i think the disconnect between the labour and conservative westminster—based parties and the country, the thoughts, hopes and aspirations of ordinary people, are so far apart. i think ithinki i think ijust called him justine, it is most definitelyjustin. four you to go as you had said that wearing the pin the ritz prison of france, people might have scoffed at you. i france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~' , france, people might have scoffed at ou. " , france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~ , ., france, people might have scoffed at ou. ~ , . you. i think it is said to say that the media _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and put _ you. i think it is said to say that the media and put the - you. i think it is said to say that the media and put the media i you. i think it is said to say that i the media and put the media and punditry in this country have spent many years laughing at nigel farage, and he has proved us wrong time again, so i am very much in the camp of thinking that nigel farage should be listened to these days. but he has a heck of a job on his hands, a first past the post voting system that has been a font on his side for most of his life which isn't changing any time soon. even if reform do when two or three seats in a selection, it is still very hard to build from that, and the tories will presumably come back resurgent from this election. i wouldn't hold my breath for nigel farage leading the opposition to the prime minister, but you can't count anything out. minister, but you can't count anything out-— minister, but you can't count an hint out. . . anything out. the important caveat is that voucher _ anything out. the important caveat is that voucher does _ anything out. the important caveat is that voucher does not _ anything out. the important caveat| is that voucher does not necessarily equal seats. is that voucher does not necessarily equalseats. i'mjust is that voucher does not necessarily equal seats. i'm just back from brussels, that is a pattern emerging throughout europe, in a third of the eu countries, it is the upstarts that have embarrassed the old guard. as the old guard tries to the balance, it is shifting further to the right. nigel farage is playing a big role in this election? he certainly — big role in this election? he certainly is. _ big role in this election? he certainly is. part of the reason why we have _ certainly is. part of the reason why we have not— certainly is. part of the reason why we have not had that rise of papuiism _ we have not had that rise of populism that we have seen on the continent _ populism that we have seen on the continent is — populism that we have seen on the continent is because we have brexit, we scratch _ continent is because we have brexit, we scratch that each in 2016 when the public, — we scratch that each in 2016 when the public, to the great surprise of the public, to the great surprise of the establishment and political class, — the establishment and political class, though to leave the bloc. now here we _ class, though to leave the bloc. now here we are — class, though to leave the bloc. now here we are years later, and many voters _ here we are years later, and many voters are — here we are years later, and many voters are are saying that they would — voters are are saying that they would throw their weight behind what is a very— would throw their weight behind what is a very new party in british politics _ is a very new party in british politics it _ is a very new party in british politics. it is quite extraordinary development, and it is being led by nigel— development, and it is being led by nigel farage, who is arguably one of the most _ nigel farage, who is arguably one of the most successful british politicians of recent years. i think today— politicians of recent years. i think today he — politicians of recent years. i think today he was making quite clear with his use _ today he was making quite clear with his use of— today he was making quite clear with his use of the term, contract with the people. — his use of the term, contract with the people, ratherthan his use of the term, contract with the people, rather than manifesto, he understands he is not going to -et he understands he is not going to get a _ he understands he is not going to get a strong foothold into british politics _ get a strong foothold into british politics this time. but he is hoping he will— politics this time. but he is hoping he will get — politics this time. but he is hoping he will get a seat and will help shape — he will get a seat and will help shape british politics over the next five years. — shape british politics over the next five years, putting reform in a stronger— five years, putting reform in a stronger position. do five years, putting reform in a stronger position.— five years, putting reform in a stronger position. do you think that is wh he stronger position. do you think that is why he launched _ stronger position. do you think that is why he launched in _ stronger position. do you think that is why he launched in wales, - stronger position. do you think that l is why he launched in wales, because he sees himself as the official opposition to labour a? i he sees himself as the official opposition to labour a? i think he launched in _ opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales _ opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because - opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it - opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it is i opposition to labour a? i think he launched in wales because it is a | launched in wales because it is a way for— launched in wales because it is a way for reform to pivot towards attacking — way for reform to pivot towards attacking labour, and where better to lodge _ attacking labour, and where better to lodge your manifesto at in wales, where _ to lodge your manifesto at in wales, where labour have had a essentially full control — where labour have had a essentially full control for the last 25 years? and wales — full control for the last 25 years? and wales is performing very poorly on a range _ and wales is performing very poorly on a range of metrics, its economy has grown — on a range of metrics, its economy has grown up more slowly since 2018, as nhs— has grown up more slowly since 2018, as nhs waiting lists are worse, around — as nhs waiting lists are worse, around a — as nhs waiting lists are worse, around a third of children in wales are classed — around a third of children in wales are classed as living in poverty. you _ are classed as living in poverty. you namely policy area, and wales is lagging _ you namely policy area, and wales is lagging behind. ithink you namely policy area, and wales is lagging behind. i think in that respect — lagging behind. i think in that respect it did make sense, i think it was— respect it did make sense, i think it was time — respect it did make sense, i think it was time to offer people a glimpse _ it was time to offer people a glimpse into what their future will be glimpse into what their future will he like _ glimpse into what their future will he like if — glimpse into what their future will be like if they vote for labour. if we are _ be like if they vote for labour. if we are to — be like if they vote for labour. if we are to believe what nigel farage says. _ we are to believe what nigel farage says. he _ we are to believe what nigel farage says, he sees himself now as someone who might _ says, he sees himself now as someone who might be a leader of the opposition. let's take a quick look at some of the things in reform's offer, starting with migration. the party pledges to freeze all nonessential immigration. they would leave the european convention on human rights, all illegal migrants will be detained and deported, small boats picked up and taken back to france, there would be a new department for immigration. on defence they would spend 3% of gdp, nhs spending would increase by 17 billion, they will introduce tax relief of 20% on private health care and insurance. front line nhs and social care staff will pay zero basic rate income tax for three years. they would lift the income tax threshold to £20,000 and the inheritance tax threshold to £2 million. scrap net zero and green levies to bring down energy bills. and in education, they would introduce a "patriotic curriculum", and introduce tax relief of 20% on all independent education. that's a lot of tax and spending pledges. how does it add up? here's verify�*s ben chu. here is the rough size of the lib dem labour and tory manifestos in tax and spending terms, between £7 billion and £27 billion per year, and here are the greens, £172 billion a year, and here is reform, £141 billion. as you can see, reform and the greens really tower over the the other parties, and public finance experts feel that while individual elements of the latter two parties might be coherent, they feel that overall there is a lack of credibility. as then farage says, it is hard to tell whether the sums add up, but maybe they don't need to. this is red meat for the base. it is very difficult for the main parties to compete with that. the difficult for the main parties to compete with that. the greens and reformed only _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in _ compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in the - compete with that. the greens and reformed only to live in the world l reformed only to live in the world because everything is fresh and cool second that they are going to run the country, so they can make all these ridiculous pledges such as stopping illegal immigration, because they will never be tested to do that. you can see the other spending pledges from the other parties, they are based on reality. and that is not where those two parties are at the moment. but a bout for reform is a vibe at the moment, it is not a vote for a party like it's going to form a government. it is a protest vote to show your displeasure of the way that the tories have gone and historically the way that nigel farage has had an enormous impact on our politics is not through his own policy reform, it is not from a ukip manifesto, it is from pulling the party itself in a certain direction. the suspicion is that is precisely what we will see again this year. after the tories are crushed in defeat, we presume, we will be killed in the direction of nigel farage by reform. he has done it several times, and it feels like he is going to do again. according to tim shipman in the sunday times there was a moment last week, post normandy, where things got so bleakfor the prime minister he apparently mulled whether to withdraw from the election campaign and leave it to others. but today rishi sunak was out on a flurry of campaign stops hoping to stop the bleed. what won't necessarily help the tories is news that the pro—remain group, best for britain, has today published an online analysis of how to vote tactically to keep the tories and reform out. here's what it looks like. the project is supposedly based on mrp polling, and for each constituency there is a recommendation of how to vote. it shows you how many people in that constituency at the think will vote tactically. does tactical voting work? {lit tactically. does tactical voting work? , ., . . work? of course it works and we have seen it at previous _ work? of course it works and we have seen it at previous general _ seen it at previous general elections. i wonder if people will vote tactically less time. we all unite _ vote tactically less time. we all unite we — vote tactically less time. we all unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided _ unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided i— unite we have 40—45% of voters still undecided. i think many people simply— undecided. i think many people simply will not bother to show up. that is— simply will not bother to show up. that is an — simply will not bother to show up. that is an expectation of relatively low voter— that is an expectation of relatively low voter turnout. those that do show _ low voter turnout. those that do show up. — low voter turnout. those that do show up. i — low voter turnout. those that do show up, i think it has been such a negative _ show up, i think it has been such a negative campaign that there will be a lot of— negative campaign that there will be a lot of spoilt ballots, people who 'ust a lot of spoilt ballots, people who just threw— a lot of spoilt ballots, people who just threw away their boats, people who vote _ just threw away their boats, people who vote reform, a lot of people 'ust who vote reform, a lot of people just deciding on the day. i think at the moment is very difficult to know what the _ the moment is very difficult to know what the shape of things will be three _ what the shape of things will be three weeks from now. an extraordinary situation, really. but certainly— extraordinary situation, really. but certainly the problem for rishi sunak— certainly the problem for rishi sunak and the conservative party as they are _ sunak and the conservative party as they are trying to push this message that a _ they are trying to push this message that a vote _ they are trying to push this message that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, _ that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, and — that a vote for reform is a vote for labour, and unfortunately itjust isn't _ labour, and unfortunately itjust isn't sticking, such as the sense of disappointment and a betrayal that tory voters feel towards the party that they — tory voters feel towards the party that they mayjust look for reform anyway _ that they mayjust look for reform anyway it— that they may 'ust look for reform an a . . , , ., that they may 'ust look for reform an a. . . anyway. it was grant shapps that had the morning — anyway. it was grant shapps that had the morning round. _ warning people that if they vote for reform they will end up with a labour "super majority". here he is on times radio this morning saying the quite bit out loud. it's possible to win the election. do i accept it's not the most likely outcome? of course i accept that, i'm a realist — but i also think that when people start to narrow down on this focus, and, in particular i've noticed this with talking to people on the doorstep, where they have been perhaps toying with voting in another direction and then realising thatjust gives starmer more power, and no one, i think, at this stage, thinks that it would be to the benefit of themselves, their own household budgets and attacks that would come upon it to have a massive starmer majority. i'v e i've been doing this a long time, i can as shall remember a secretary of state coming out and admitting they are going to lose the election. —— i can't actually remember. have you heard that before?— can't actually remember. have you heard that before? jeremy hunt were sa in: heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something _ heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar— heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar the - heard that before? jeremy hunt were saying something similar the other i saying something similar the other day, that a vote for starmer will give him an even bigger majority, and otherwise he is going to win. i was talking to someone about this, who said that this occasionally happens in at the very final days of a campaign, the last two days when you really can see which way it is going. it is a final attempt to squeeze that majority. i've never seen that happening with an election with two or three weeks to go. it will give you a sense of how desperate things must be in at the tory camp if they have each for this button already. tory camp if they have each for this button already-— tory camp if they have each for this button already. rishi sunak has been uraed button already. rishi sunak has been ura ed to button already. rishi sunak has been uraed to no button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for— button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the _ button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular— button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular and - button already. rishi sunak has been urged to go for the jugular and go i urged to go for thejugular and go with more personal attacks on keir starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he? ihlat starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he?— starmer. he is not really that kind of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime _ of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister _ of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister because - of politician, is he? not by nature, but at prime minister because he l but at prime minister because he would go for a keir starmer quite hot in a personal way, but it is not his instinct. there is a separate voice, perhaps the angel on rishi sunak�*s shoulder saying, you are going to lose here, but you're going to do with some dignity. maybe another voice in his head is saying the best thing to do is to show energy, fight on policy and don't go right down in the gutter fighting that way, because either way you're going to get beat. it is hard to say which way he will go, but there are certainly people offering him both sets of advice. what the tories are doing is attack, attack, attack. all of their messaging is about labour and the supposed threat of a labour government. we and the supposed threat of a labour government-— government. we will take a short break. government. we will take a short break- you _ government. we will take a short break. you are _ government. we will take a short break. you are watching - government. we will take a short break. you are watching bbc- government. we will take a short i break. you are watching bbc news. keir starmer and rachel reeves were on the south coast this morning with a pledge to create more than 650,000 skilled jobs via labour's green investment plan. the shadow chancellor says a labour government will hold a "global investment summit" within the first 100 days. sadly for her it is the three topics they really don't want to talk about — brexit, tax and the two—child benefit cap — which continue to dominate. the tories say labour's plan to grant no new licenses for oil and gas in the north sea, will lead to higher costs and "even blackouts. " in an interview with the ft, the shadow chancellor signalled that labour would revisit parts of the brexit negotiation. the institute of government said it was a sign that she wants to "resurrect theresa may's chequers deal." she has pushed back firmly on that notion, but she does want to reduce some of the trading barriers. what did you make of the interview she gave to the ft? because brexit hasn't really played a part in this campaign until now. it is hasn't really played a part in this campaign until now. it is strange, reall , campaign until now. it is strange, really. given _ campaign until now. it is strange, really, given that _ campaign until now. it is strange, really, given that it _ campaign until now. it is strange, really, given that it has _ campaign until now. it is strange, really, given that it has has - campaign until now. it is strange, really, given that it has has takenj really, given that it has has taken so much of the political oxygen over the last eight years. speaking to voters on the doorstep, it isn't a priority. they wanted, the nhs, immigration, the economy, but they don't want to talk about brexit. of course there is going to be a fear amongst brexiteers that labour will drag us into closer ties, having a closer union with the eu when they come into power. anything that the shadow chancellor says that might add fuel to that fire i think is going to get a big reaction, so perhaps that is why it has had so many headlines today. there are those that would argue there is a lot of sense in having a closer dynamic alignment with the eu on certain issues. but on the other hand we spent many years trying to negotiate the tca. we are now in a position where we have more sovereignty and we can set our own rules, so why is it we will decide to align ourselves with eu regulations once again and in what way might we be hamstring ourselves? i think it is one of those things thatis i think it is one of those things that is going to really divide opinion, and labour will be really aware of this. that's why they will be a great pains to not talk about brexit, beyond how they might tweak the deal here and there. keir starmer�*s narrative has been for a long time that under a labour government there will be better relations with the european union, simply on merit of the fact they are not the tories, they are not the ones who brought in the referendum and negotiated the brexit deal and got brexit done in the end. but i think we need to bear in mind that the real politic year, and at the eu will always do what is in at the eu's best interest.— will always do what is in at the eu's best interest. jack, you have done some _ eu's best interest. jack, you have done some polling _ eu's best interest. jack, you have done some polling on _ eu's best interest. jack, you have done some polling on this, - eu's best interest. jack, you have done some polling on this, and i eu's best interest. jack, you have done some polling on this, and it| eu's best interest. jack, you have i done some polling on this, and it is striking that those who intend to vote labour do not really two fully understand what keir starmer�*s position is on a brexit. 30% thought he pledged to take britain back into the single market, a full 19% thought he would be the bloc entirely. there really no what he is about when it comes to europe? keir starmer tried — about when it comes to europe? irie " starmer tried not to about when it comes to europe? iie " starmer tried not to talk about the stuff for the three or four years. i would say it was a lack of messaging discipline from rachel reeves today, i don't think labour intend to talk about brexit, she decided to answer the question and suddenly the answer gets splashed across the front page. this was an answer about chemicals regulations, probably not top of people's agenda in the selection! yet here it is plastered across the front page. this is like labour doesn't want to talk about it, this is what happens. how can you split labour voters to possibly know what the policy is when clearly they are not allowed to talk about f—gas the truth is, keir starmer thinks he has got some very big fish to fry if and when he comes in as prime minister. the public finances are in a mess, public services are in a mess. we haven't had a labour comment for a very long time. i think the idea that he's going to spend this political capital painstakingly negotiating with the eu, who frankly are not really interested in britain any more anyway, i think it is pretty unlikely. i think labour voters will come to realise that quite quickly. he has got other priorities, as i have the eu frankly, so i think this will be a bit of a nonevent. it frankly, so i think this will be a bit of a nonevent.— frankly, so i think this will be a bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me, bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me. given — bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me. given that — bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me, given that the _ bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me, given that the millions - bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to me, given that the millions of - bit of a nonevent. it is amazing to i me, given that the millions of hours you spent on a cold lawn outside the palace of westminster that i can i shall remember what the chequers plan was, so i had a quick look and it war. there was a proposal to "maintain a common rule book for all goods" with the eu, including agricultural products, after brexit. so, a treaty committing to "continued harmonisation" on goods and some services. uk courts would pay "due regard to eu case law in areas where the uk continued to apply a common rule book". there was a proposal to agree a facilitated customs area, so the borders between the uk and eu would be treated as one "combined customs territory". still no free movement, the uk maintaining an independent trade policy, and no longer any annual payments to the eu budget. david davis actually resigned over that plane, and it was never negotiate with the europeans because the government never put out before them. i look at that and i wonder whether business would reject it now? would that be some exporters and importers who think, actually, that sounds like a pretty good compromise? i that sounds like a pretty good compromise?— that sounds like a pretty good comromise? ~ . , , ,, , compromise? i think what businesses want more than _ compromise? i think what businesses want more than anything _ compromise? i think what businesses want more than anything else - compromise? i think what businesses want more than anything else is - want more than anything else is certain te, and after many years of turbulence, even if they thought that a labour government was able to re—enter negotiations and get as a better deal, which i have to say i think is immensely unlikely. the eu has its own problems at the moment. many are still smarting from brexit, and they certainly will about what the uk to get something better than eu membership without being in the bloc. i suspect business leaders are fully aware of that, so they will operate in the new framework, even if they feel as if they are doing so under worse terms than they were previously. we know from 2023 data that exports have not been impacted anywhere near as much by brexit as was feared before the referendum. our economy has still grown by around 8% since the referendum. but around 896 since the referendum. but it is not around 8% since the referendum. but it is not very popular in the polls, is it? a lot of people have turned against it. is it? a lot of people have turned auainst it. ., , is it? a lot of people have turned auainst it. . , . ., , against it. that is certainly true, against it. that is certainly true, a divided opinion _ against it. that is certainly true, a divided opinion back— against it. that is certainly true, a divided opinion back in - against it. that is certainly true, a divided opinion back in 2016 i against it. that is certainly true, | a divided opinion back in 2016 as well. perhaps there would be popular support for another referendum, and for us to dive back into negotiations, get the eu back to the negotiating table. but i think we have got to consider what kind of deal we would come up with, even with keir starmer being in charge. the turmoil of having to go through those negotiations again. i the turmoil of having to go through those negotiations again.— those negotiations again. i think ou're those negotiations again. i think you're right. _ those negotiations again. i think you're right. i— those negotiations again. i think you're right, i don't _ those negotiations again. i think you're right, i don't think- those negotiations again. i think you're right, i don't think the i you're right, i don't think the europeans are particularly interested in our psychodrama. that chequers plan ijust set up, does that sound something similar to what rachel reeves was setting out, albeit for the chemicals industry? she sort of tiptoed there for one specific— she sort of tiptoed there for one specific sector on one specific issu3, _ specific sector on one specific issue. and _ specific sector on one specific issue, and there are certainly specific— issue, and there are certainly specific bits of sector work labour thinks _ specific bits of sector work labour thinks it— specific bits of sector work labour thinks it would make more sense for the uk _ thinks it would make more sense for the uk economy to be more in line with europe. i don't forget a body was talking about the sort of wholesale alignment that theresa may was suggesting. as you said, the eu having _ was suggesting. as you said, the eu having into — was suggesting. as you said, the eu having into that. that might be fun even _ having into that. that might be fun even if_ having into that. that might be fun even if they were going to talk about— even if they were going to talk about it — even if they were going to talk about it. whether business likes it or not— about it. whether business likes it or not is— about it. whether business likes it or not is probably slightly irrelevant, because i do not think that will— irrelevant, because i do not think that will be — irrelevant, because i do not think that will be keir starmer's priority if he wins, — that will be keir starmer's priority if he wins, given the massive public service _ if he wins, given the massive public service issues we have got in this country— service issues we have got in this country and — service issues we have got in this country and the total lack of money he has _ country and the total lack of money he has got — country and the total lack of money he has got to spend on them. he is going _ he has got to spend on them. he is going to _ he has got to spend on them. he is going to have a lot of stuff to deal with on— going to have a lot of stuff to deal with on his — going to have a lot of stuff to deal with on his plate. may be a president donald trump to do with as well. president donald trump to do with as well they— president donald trump to do with as well. they negotiating with the eu feels like — well. they negotiating with the eu feels like a bit of a stretch to me. know— feels like a bit of a stretch to me. know when— feels like a bit of a stretch to me. know when to negotiate with, of course, because there is no commission. there is discussion started today about who would become the commission president. we have some live pictures from jerusalem. these are continuations of the protests we saw in tel aviv at the weekend, which some of the former hostages spoke out about the policy of the israeli government policy to get the hostages out. benjamin netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet. all policy decisions in relation to gaza now be made within the security cabinet, and it does appear that prime minister netanyahu is going to take the bulk of the decisions. although how closely he is aligned with the military decisions is a matter of debate at the moment. tonight, lots of protest, lots of pressure on the israeli prime minister. we will take a short break and we will be back to talk about the shoe child cap on benefits. it's a problem for labour. hello. we have seen some warm sunshine around today, particularly across parts of southern england. for other areas further north, there have been a few showers around. as we head through the day tomorrow, again, a day of sunny spells for many of us. there will be a few showers in the forecast, so not completely dry. we've got this area of low pressure sitting across the bay of biscay at the moment. that's moving its way in, and just grazes the southeast corner of england. so that's going to bring some rain through tomorrow. for the rest of this evening into tonight, then, most places looking dry, showers easing away. still quite cloudy and breezy with a few showers across northern parts of scotland. could be one or two misty patches toward central and southern england, perhaps. a relatively cool night for this stage injune with temperatures between 8—12 celsius in our towns and cities, a touch cooler in the countryside. so, a lot of dry weather through tuesday morning. variable amounts of cloud. let's just take a look down towards the southeast. there is that area of rain moving out of the channel islands, perhaps affecting east sussex and kent, for instance, as well. but away from that area, lots of sunshine around. more showers as we head north through the spine of the country, so the midlands, the pennines up towards central parts of scotland as well. a slightly brighter day, i think, for northern ireland compared to recent days, a bit more sunshine coming through here. still a northerly breeze blowing, and we will see these showers continuing through into the afternoon across scotland and through the spine of northern england, but i think either side of that, of a fair amount of dry and settled weather. it should dry up along the south coast after the earlier rain as well. temperatures up to around 16—21 celsius for most of us. now, we've got high—pressure that's trying to ridge in from the atlantic here as we head towards the middle of the week. so that should quiet the weather down, really. heading into wednesday, another mostly dry and settled day. fewer showers then we have seen over recent days. a bit more cloud and some patchy rain into the far north—northwest of scotland. elsewhere, a bit of cloud building through the day, but some strong sunshine lifting temperatures quite widely into low 20s across southern and central parts of england and wales. high teens for scotland and northern ireland. into thursday, and again, we've got more cloud in the northwest of the uk, turning a bit more breezy with a few showers here. but for most areas, a dry, settled day, and in that sunshine, we are likely to see temperatures lifting to around about 21—22 celsius. still a bit cooler for the likes of stornoway, lerwick, where we've got the cloud, breeze and showers. but most places looking dry and settled as we head through thursday into friday, but some rain in the northwest, perhaps more widespread on saturday. hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. he's gone from paddleboarding on windermere to wheelbarrow racing round yeovil, butjust how well will ed davey�*s lib dems fare in this election?