Market facing notjust lower occupancy, but also, higher Interest Rates . One of the worlds richest Property Investors looks into his crystal ball. Does he think a recession in america could be just around the corner . Wherever yourejoining me from Around The World, once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. You know, its been one of the biggest changes in working life since the industrial revolution. Just three short years ago, the pandemic cleared offices of workers and cities were emptied out. Companies found that workers could still get their work done from home. Now a new normal, it seems to be emerging big companies, especially those in the highly paid Financial Services sector, are asking workers to come back and are putting their attendance at work into their performance reviews. And most companies that went fully remote during the lockdown are sort of landing on a hybrid model. But a study of more than 9,000 employees Around The World showed workers are still reluctant to come back on site. In 2021, around two thirds were reluctant to return to the office. This year, thats down to around a half. And four out of five employers say that those who dont come in are less likely to have good career progression. Meanwhile, here in the uk, Linkedin Have Shared with us that the number ofjobs being advertised with some work in the office and some remote, or hybrid work, has increased from a third of alljobs a year ago to now, 45 . So, i caught up with linkedin� s global chief economist. Karin kimbrough, a real pleasure having you on the show. And, karin, let mejust start with this, because im kind of wondering, are you seeing this increase in hybrid working everywhere and not just here in the uk . Yeah, we are seeing this trend really embed itself in the workforce. So as much as remote jobs really were at the forefront during the pandemic, since then, weve seen this ascendancy, this climbing of importance of hybrid work, and it is everywhere. Its in australia, in the us, in the uk, in france, were seeing, increasingly, employers offering hybrid, or coalescing around the idea of offering hybrid, instead ofjust purely remote or on site work. And, karin, what about returning to the five day a week . I mean, is that popular, or is thatjust, its gone forever . Its a fraction of the workforce in any country that actually gets to work remotely. But what i think is going to happen is ultimately, were going to move towards Something Like a four day work week. I think were kind of already on our way there. And i think that whats really sitting behind the desire by workers for flexibility for remote work, or hybrid work, is really autonomy. And i think employers need to find a way to offer that autonomy, in Whateverfashion Appeals to their talent. And still get as much productivity and engagement as they possibly can from the workers. Im wondering, how much more popular is Working From Home fully like a fully remote job compared to, say, well, hybrid work . 0h, we see incredible popularity in remote work. So think of it this way. Just, for example, in the us, about 10 of the roles now offer remote work, but over 40 of the applications go to remote roles. So thats just remote alone is getting four times the number of applications as the number ofjobs that are on our platform. So its incredibly popular. And then when we look broadly, about two thirds of all applicants globally apply to at least one hybrid oi one remote role. So its incredibly popular amongstjob applicants. And then when you lookjust in the uk itself, for example, it does depend on industry. So the most popular sectors that offer remote roles are tech, and the sectors that offer the most hybrid roles are Financial Services. And we see this over and over again across different countries. 0k. So, karin, hang on here for a minute, because youre saying that these Remote Working jobs are proving really popular. Again, imjust kind of wondering, what groups out there are searching for full Remote Working jobs . So the groups that are most likely to look for remote jobs fall in this category of what we would call maybe that sandwich generation. So they are working parents. Maybe they have some Childcare Obligations that sort of cut up the day. Maybe they have some eldercare obligations. If we look outside that particular group, say, that cohort thats in the 30 to 40 year old range, the other groups are kind of quite keen to come in. You know, despite what people say around gen z, theyre one of the keenest segments that want to come in the office and have experiences because theyre looking for coaching and mentoring and opportunity to learn. We also see older generations that remember pre pandemic days of having to be in the office five days a week, you know, 8 6, or whatever it was. They also are fine to come in. Its just that one cohort in the middle thats got a lot of family obligations tojuggle. And, karin, let me end on this. Just how do you see all of this developing as we go forward over the next, i dont know, five or ten years . My guess is that what were going to see is that employers finally get fully comfortable with the idea that their workforce can be productive on a hybrid schedule. Theyre going to offer a lot more autonomy and flexibility to this workforce as a just par for the course. Its going to be standard table stakes. And then i really think ultimately, what this gets back to is understanding that its on the employer to make a compelling case for a worker to come in the office. To find, as we say, those moments that matter, this idea that when you come in, you are collaborating, you are learning, youre feeling invested in, youre brainstorming all the things that kind of give us spark at the workplace, thats what the Employer Needs to offer. And i think employers are getting their heads around it right now. But theyre still. Theyre still figuring it out. We have a ways to go. Well, on that point, karin kimbrough, from linkedin, a real pleasure having you on the show. Thanks for your time. Well talk to you soon. Thank you so much. When my next guests company asked their staff to come into the office two days a week, boy, it set off a barrage of global headlines. Many were surprised that zoom yeah, zoom the company that became the icon of Working From Home, would have an in office mandate. Well, another big change at the Company Recently was it appointed its first head of europe, middle east and africa. So, i spoke to the man himself. Frederik maris, good to see you. Thanks for your time. And, frederik, lets start with this, because youve gone back to the office. Youve been asking your workers who live within a 50 mile radius to come back to the office. Why have you done that . I think its twofold. So, first of all, we are building a platform which is really for hybrid work. So if we want to be able to position that in the market, then we need to experience it ourselves. So that is one and i think that is really important one, and the other one which is equally important. We are humans, we social species. And i think its good for people to be together and to cooperate and to collaborate. And theres only so much you can do on a zoom meeting. Theres so much that happens outside of the meetings, when you have lunch or when you can have a cup of coffee or tea with somebody. So just that social interaction and making sure that what we do is actually fun, because thats an important part of providing a good work environment. And im just wondering, frederik, how strictly is zoom implementing this . So, we are. We want people to come to the office two days a week. And in the beginning, it was a bit challenging because people were like to your point why do i need to come into the office . And i think in many cases, its actually going really well, where people are seeing added value of coming to the office. Right . Because what you dont want is you dont want to send people into the office and then let them do exactly the same things that they could be doing at home. But if you build the days in such a way that you do your Team Meetings then, that you do your enablement then, that you do the social things then, weve got a lot of people that are actually wanting to come into the office. And i think ive got more people in the places where we dont have offices asking, when can we open up offices . Versus people saying that they dont want to come into the office in london and in amsterdam, which are the two big offices that we have. But, frederik, i mean, ive got to ask you this, how far would zoom take it . I mean, if someone refuses to come in, even for those two days, do they lose theirjob . We havent come that far yet. I do think that theres, you know, there are cases where people are staying behind and were trying to understand, so what are the reasons and whats going on . Is there personal things . And we have a whole, lets say, questionnaire of what is your Family Situation . Do you have children . Do people need to go to nurseries, for instance . Have you got pets . I mean, all these things are parts of deciding to which extent do you come to the office, when do you come to the office . And up till now, weve definitely not been in a situation where weve let people go because they werent coming into the office. And, frederik, let me end on this. I mean, lets talk about artificial intelligence. How is al changing things at zoom . I think its not only changing things at zoom, its changing things in the world. If youve done a meeting, you have to write down the things you agreed. Those are things that zoom does automatically for you, make sure that you follow up in the right way. So i can see Development Going into an area where you assign this to project management software, where you can give deadlines to different people within the organisation or outside of the organisation. Theres a huge focus on it, which is only going to increase, going forward. Well, on that point, frederik maris, from zoom, a real pleasure having you on the show. Thanks for your time. Well check in with you soon. Thank you very much, aaron. And it was a pleasure to be with you today as well. While zoom became a Household Verb during the pandemic, another company, slack, was also seeing a massive lift. Its been pioneering Remote Working for more than a decade, but lockdown saw its user numbers rocket by more than 2 million overnight and prompted a takeover to the tune of more than 2 billion in 2021 from its now parent company, salesforce. Slack is best known for its software that, well, it keeps workers connected remotely through text and other software, so they can create together, while working separately. So i decided to catch up with slack� s co founder. Cal henderson, great to see you. Thanks for your time. And, cal, let me start with this, because youve famously been a Remote First Company yourself, allowing your workers to, well, work from anywhere. But some of your teams are now working in your offices. Whys that . Look, i think the reality of modern work for Information Workers is hybrid. And its a spectrum, if you like. From one end, you have organisations where everybody is in the office five days a week. And at the other end of the spectrum, you have organisations that dont even have an office, where everybody works remotely every day. But i think the majority of organisations, especially of any scale, sit somewhere in the middle. And that is, some number of people are coming into the office each day, but few people are coming in every day and few people are coming in never. And its that combination of what people want, what they expect is that flexibility to sometimes come into the office, sometimes work from home, and it often depends on the kinds of activities theyre doing that day. As in organisations, we have guidelines around how often we expect people to get together. And i think when you look back at pre pandemic times, there were some companies, some sizeable organisations that were fully distributed. But even for those companies that didnt have an office, they always got together and i think thatis always got together and i think that is really important. Whether that was for annual meetings or regular off site meetings, the kinds of work that can be best done in person, which is sometimes the mechanics of the work and is sometimesjust mechanics of the work and is sometimes just socialist world to form relationships with your co workers, those kind of relationships are still really important and are important now. Some activities are best donein now. Some activities are best done in person and just because you are a hybrid or distributive organisation doesnt mean you will never meet in person. And, cal, do you think hybrid is just the way of the future, or do you think that we could start seeing more Companies Mandating for people to come back full time . I think hybrid, now the cat is out of the bag, if you like. During the pandemic, we saw that organisations not only could work in a distributive way, but could be very successful in that way, that its hard to ever kind of reel that all the way back in. So i think hybrid is here to stay and its a question of to what degree . For most organisations as, over the last kind of year and a half, weve started seeing companies have back to the office mandates. Sometimes, those have worked. Sometimes, they havent. And i think its up to kind of each organisation but especially, each discipline within each organisation to understand what works best for them. Theres certainly kinds of work that are best done in person. Like, deeply collaborative, Creative Work is often best done with people in a room. But the model, the idea that Everybody Needs to come into the Office Every Day to sit at an individual desk and work on their computer and not talk to anybody, i think weve broken that myth over the last three years. And, cal, just how difficult has it been hanging on to all of your users, now that were in this post lockdown world . Its been really interesting, actually. At the beginning of the pandemic, we saw this big spike in usage for slack and other tools like slack, where companies were kind of desperate to find the tools that would allow them to continue to operate, when we had to suddenly overnight shift our work to be remote. But what we saw kind of after the pandemic, if you like, in the current times, is that that level of usage didnt go back down. So while people are now able to go into offices and to see their co workers in person, so much of work has shifted digitally, has shifted online, through online collaboration tools, and i dont think thats ever going back. While ive got you, lets talk about microsoft. Youve had your issues with that company. The teen� s product does have some similarities to site and youve asked the european regulators to investigate this. But im kind of wondering here, you cant own the idea of online collaboration, can you . Oh, no, of course we cant own the idea of online collaboration, i think that is a universal way in which we have used computers in the workplace and they have been introduced. And we appreciate a thorough review and we will continue to work with the commission to move to quickly restore free and fair choice to the marketplace, which we think is really important. Well, lets end on this, cal, because your company, its always been forward looking. You were pioneering in Remote Working. So the question is, cal, whats next . What does the future of slack look like . Information work is only getting more complex. What were going to see is not a consolidation of the amount of software used in the workplace, but more of a synthesis, of bringing it all together and a focus on how do we collaborate around these things, rather than how do we get faster at individual tasks . So i think the future of work is a lot more collaborative and the tools that support work, like slack, are more focused on collaboration of larger and larger groups of people. Well, cal henderson, the co founder of slack, a real pleasure having you on the show. Thanks for your time. Well talk to you soon. Thanks so much for having me. So far, we have been looking at companies asking workers to come back to the office. Going to work is one of the factors which has hit one of the Global Property market. Add in higher Interest Rates and a cost of living crisis, and its a particular cocktail of challenges for Property Investors. Well, my next guest is one of the biggest. In fact, forbes has just named him as one of the wealthiest Property Investors in the United States, estimating his fortune at more than 5 billion. Rick caruso, a real pleasure having you on the show. And, rick, let me start with this, because this weeks show, weve been looking at the return to work. Have you seen an improvement in companies, have you seen an improvement in Companies Getting people back to the office . ~ ~ , office . Well, i think there is and thank office . Well, i think there is and thank you office . Well, i think there is and thank you for office . Well, i think there is and thank you for having office . Well, i think there isj and thank you for having me office . Well, i think there is i and thank you for having me on the show, there is definitely a movement back into the office, more and more companies are requiring their employees to come back and forward, as are we in our company, four days a week. So we are seeing Office Buildings getting filled up. But we still have overall i would say here in los angeles a 30 vacancy on Office Buildings. The same up in san francisco. So there are other factors that are impacting these Office Buildings such as crime in the downtown areas and the Homeless Population that is contributing to the problem of agencies. And, yes, people are returning to the office, but according to some reports, only half the levels seen before the pandemic. And im just wondering, rick, what happens to all of that empty office space . For a lot of people, it is going to be tough depending on the building at the age of the building, the location of the building. Ithink building, the location of the building. I think we are going to have less people going into traditional offices, there is no doubt about that. I do think you are going to have a growing number coming back in three to four days a week. I think employers have to be creative to make the office a better experience, more enjoyable. Making sure that it is a place where people have a sense of camaraderie and obviously innovation and all these kind of things. Im a big believer you have to be back in an office. But clearly, it is going to change and we are going to change and we are going to change and we are going to have Office Buildings that are obsolete and probably will get converted to some extent to apartments. And maybe some other uses. But a lot of these Office Buildings, the conversion is very expensive because of the dimensions of the building. Theyre not easily convertible. And youll probably see some Office Buildings coming down and being replaced. They� re just, you know, antiquated. Well, rick, ive got to ask you, from what youve just said, tell me why youre a big believer in people returning to the office . Because i dont believe that you could grow a company, for the most part. I mean, theres always exceptions. I dont think you can grow a company, have innovation, entrepreneurship, all of the things that it takes to really move a company forward, to be competitive when people are working remotely. I think the importance of being in the hallway together, of running into each other, grabbing a cup of coffee together, sharing ideas, creating relationships. How does a young person. Think about this. If youre a young person starting in an industry, how does a young person get noticed . How do they get noticed by their bosses, in order to work up the corporate ladder . I think theres a lot of great benefits to working remotely some of the time, and i think thats fine, but i also dont believe that you can be as productive working at home, or working remotely, as you are in the office. Rick, what is the overriding factor thatjust led to this, this sharp drop in the value of commercial real estate . Well, in the office sector, its clearly because of higher Interest Rates and lower occupancy. I mean, theyve got a perfect storm happening right now. And then, on top of all of that, they have a Credit Crunch where lenders are not lending to them. So, this really isnt rocket science, whats going on here. And i dont think were going to have a contagion across the United States and the office sectors, but youre going to have markets that will be impacted. I think retail, generally, is still doing well because the consumer is still spending. And theyre very strong and, actually, their confidence remains pretty high, so we havent seen a change in that. But i predict that will change, itsjust got to have an impact. Higher Interest Rates, for all of us, is going to have an impact on how we spend money. And, rick, while ive got you, ive got to ask you, what are the chances of a recession in the United States . Well, im going to go big and bold on this. I dont think theres a way to avoid a recession. I just dont think there is. With the height of the Interest Rates that we have right now and the fact that we still have a strong economy, we still have the consumer spending, the fed is going to have to continue to put more pressure. And my fear is theyve gone so big, so far, we havent felt the full effects. But what im seeing of fellow chairmen, ceos of companies and executives, everybody is pulling back that i know of, and thats going to cause some level of a recession, in my opinion. I dont think its going to be deep, i think its going to be minor, and i think well get through it. But ijust dont see how were going to avoid it, unless the fed starts pivoting and dropping rates. But theyre not going to drop rates until they see some level of a recession and costs of goods actually going down. So its going to be a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, i think. Well, rick, when� s it coming . When do you think a recession will hit . Well, again, iwish i had a crystal ball, because if i had a crystal ball, i wouldnt have to go to work but i think its probably first quarter. I would say its the beginning of next year. And, you know, tojust throw, obviously, a current topic in the mix on this, whats happening in the middle east right now with israel, you know, that is going to have an impact on all of this. And the fed and the equivalent in england and all Around The World has got to be meeting today saying, how is this impacting the economy . How is it impacting rates . How is it going to impact the Public Markets . How is it going to impact the bond market . Theres a lot of unknowns there now. And unknowns never help the market, and unknowns never help corporations. And that will give a little bit more fuel to everybody being more cautious, until people understand the impact of whats going on in israel, and i dont think were going to see, understand that for quite some time. Wow. 0k, well, on that point, rick caruso, really good to see you. Thanks for your time. Well talk to you soon. Aaron, thank you. I really enjoyed it. Have a good one. Well, thats it for this weeks show. I hope you enjoyed it. Dont forget, you can keep up with the latest on our Global Economy on the bbc website or the smartphone app. Of course, you can also follow me on x x me and ill x you back. You can get me bbcaaron. Thanks for watching. Ill see you soon. Bye bye. Hello. Sunday will be getting off to a cold start in most places and it promises to be a rather chilly day. But it wont be as windy as it was on saturday and there wont be as many showers. High pressure building its way in from the west. Notice the isobars, still quite tightly packed across northern and eastern parts of scotland. Still quite windy here. And a weak frontal system bringing cloud and some showery rain into the north of scotland. Something wintry for a time up over higher ground, although much of that will turn back to rain. Southern scotland, northern ireland, england and wales having a fine day after what will be a cold and, in places, frosty start. Long spells of sunshine. Just a few showers around the coasts. Still quite blustery in the north east of scotland, but lighter winds elsewhere. Temperatures 7 degrees in lerwick, 14 for st helier. Elsewhere, generally, 10 to 13 degrees. Now, sunday night will be another cold one. Light winds in most places. Some mist and fog patches could well develop. A little bit breezy in the south and in the north. Just the odd shower in the north of scotland and also perhaps in the south east of england. But in between, temperatures dropping close to, or even below freezing, with our area of High Pressure still with us, but low pressure trying to squeeze in from the south and also from the north. So it is northern and southern parts that will turn a little bit windy as we go through the day on monday. In between, light winds, early mist and fog clearing, some good spells of sunshine. But brisk winds in the north of scotland, maybe the odd shower here. Also, maybe the odd shower in southern england, where it will also turn quite windy. That strong wind also affecting the channel islands. Temperatures generally, 11, 12 or 13 degrees in most places. Now, on tuesday, i think the winds will ease a little bit in the north but, conversely, theyll pick up across the south, Turning Breezy across more of england and wales. And some showery rain, perhaps, across the channel islands, the south west of england. But notice, temperatures rising a little bit, up to around 15 or 16 degrees. A sign of things to come. It is going to turn much more unsettled through midweek. Weather systems pushing up from the south, some potentially quite heavy bursts of rain. But with southerly winds, temperatures climbing easily to around 16 degrees. Could get a little warmer than that in some places. But we will see some outbreaks of quite heavy rain. Live from washington, this is bbc news. Israel masses troops near gaza as it prepares for the next phase of its Military Operation to wipe out hamas thousands of people flee the north of gaza amid israeli Evacuation Orders as the humanitarian crisis in the territory deepens. And President Biden speaks to the israeli and palestinian leaders as the us steps up efforts to contain the escalating conflict. Hello. Im carl nasman. Israels military says that its forces are ready for the next stage of the war and that it is planning an attack by land, air and sea. In a statement, a spokesperson said that the goal of the operation was to completely destroy the governing and military capabilities of hamas. It comes a week after hamas, which is classed as a Terrorist Organisation by many western governments,