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Monday Market Mania â Kaplan Speaks! There are 12 Fed speeches this week. Author: There are 12 Fed speeches this week. 6 of them are by Robert Kaplan, who is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and was a Vice-Chairman at Goldman Sachs (GS) with a 23-year carrer there before being sent off to the Fed. Kaplan is the Fed s Inflation Hawk and that means, most likely, he s here to cool off the markets so make sure you have your hedges up to date (see Friday s PSW Report) as it s not only time for retail earnings (which could be rough) but also options expire on Friday – so strap yourselves in. ....
TGIF â Hedging for Disaster with our Short-Term Portfolio Review Aren t you glad we added hedges last week? Author: Aren t you glad we added hedges last week? We did a review of our Short-Term Portfolio last week and our timing was excellent as this has been a rough week for the markets but we were able to relax as our STP bumped up from $245,485 to $281,128 as of yesterday s close, gaining $35,643 (14.5%) for the week. Meanwhile, our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) positions, which the STP is designed to protect, are down $79,067 (4%) since our April 16th review, so our STP is mitigating about 1/2 of the damages – as it s designed to. Of course the STP kicks in a bit harder between a 10-20% drop but no real signs of that so far as we re bouncing nicely this week after a 7% drop in the Nasdaq (more on that later). ....
Forward-Looking Friday â Are We Hedged Enough? $1,862,265! $1,862,265! That s a gain of $95,674 since our February Review for our paired Long & Short-Term Portfolios. Our LTP is predominantly bullish and the STP is where we keep our hedges – as they tend to need adjusting more often – as you are about to see. Interestingly, despite the rally, the Short-Term Portfolio gained $40,000 – mostly due to our very well-timed short play on Tesla (TSLA) , which we just cashed in last week. One of the reasons we cashed it in is we now have $97,098 in cash to deploy so it s a great time to add to our hedges: ....
13,000 Thursday â Nasdaq in Critical Territory 13,146. That s the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq that we need to cross back over by tomorrow or it s likely the Nasdaq continues to correct back to the 200-day moving average at 11,721, which would be 10% down from where it is now. Author: Mar 11, 2021 13,146. That s the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq that we need to cross back over by tomorrow or it s likely the Nasdaq continues to correct back to the 200-day moving average at 11,721, which would be 10% down from where it is now. 13,146. That s the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq that we need to cross back over by tomorrow or it s likely the Nasdaq continues to correct back to the 200-day moving average at 11,721, which would be 10% down from where it is now. Since we know the Nasdaq is ridiculously over-valued, the 10% down scenario is a lot more likely than the resume the rally scenario. ....
That s what we need to sell in today s 10-Year Note Auction and, if you have $41Bn to spare for 10-years, our Government will be happy to pay you almost (but not quite) 1% interest for holding your money. Needless to say, these auctions have been attracting less and less interest and, if it is perceived that the US has trouble borrowing money, that could put upward pressure on rates and we certainly can t afford that since we are $27Tn in debt – soon to be $30Tn in debt when Biden passes his $1.9Tn Stimulus Bill. ....