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2020 Ends With A Mania – Investment Watch

The latest update shows Goldman’s basket of U.S. retail investors’ favorite stocks are up 85.9% year to date which is destroying the S&P 500 which is up just 14.2%. Words can’t explain how unusual this is. Only in the 1990s did retail investors do so well. Because words can’t do it justice, we have the chart below which shows the 20 year annualized return of the average investor is 2.3%. Those are negative real returns. Keep in mind the chart is slightly dated, but demonstrates the point nonetheless.
Retail investors usually don’t beat the index or earn any real returns for that matter. Of course, just because the retail favorites have done well this year doesn’t mean everyone has been a winner. Some investors panicked in March and some lost it all betting on options. We are seeing survivorship bias in play when most of the people bragging about their 2020 performance on social media had triple digits gains in 2020. ....

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