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Economic Bulletin Summary While the recovery in global demand and the sizeable fiscal stimulus are supporting global and euro area activity, the near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. Persistently high rates of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection and the associated extension and tightening of containment measures continue to constrain economic activity in the short term. Looking ahead, progress with vaccination campaigns and the envisaged gradual relaxation of containment measures reinforce the expectation of a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021. Inflation has picked up over recent months on account of some idiosyncratic and temporary factors and an increase in energy price inflation. At the same time, underlying price pressures remain subdued in the context of significant economic slack and still weak demand. ....
Date Understanding post-referendum weakness in UK import demand and UK balance of payments risks for the euro area 0 / 0 x Prepared by Valerie Jarvis and Tobias Schuler 1 Introduction The UK referendum on EU membership in 2016 has set the course for the most significant change to the relationship between the United Kingdom and its closest trading partners for decades. The primary interest from the ECB’s perspective is to understand the likely impact on trade of the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, as the United Kingdom has long been one of the euro area’s major export markets. ....
Carmakers and pharma hit by slowdown in UK imports from Europe European Central Bank finds automotive and chemicals firms are the Continent’s biggest losers from the post-Brexit drop in UK imports 4 May 2021 • 5:51pm Europe’s carmakers and pharmaceutical firms have suffered a slowdown in trade with the UK since the Brexit vote, according to the eurozone’s central bank. Researchers at the European Central Bank found that British imports of vehicles and pharmaceutical products have fallen “from stable double-digit positive growth to double-digit negative growth”. They added that EU countries reliant on these sectors, such as Germany, Ireland, Denmark, Slovenia and Eastern Europe, were most likely to be hit by Brexit-related trade disruptions. ....