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The aftermath of sovereign debt crises | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Rui Esteves, Seán Kenny, Jason Lennard 20 July 2021
There is little consensus on the macroeconomic impacts of sovereign debt crises, despite the regularity of such events. This column quantifies the aggregate costs of defaults using a narrative approach on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. It estimates significant and persistent negative effects of debt crises starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3%, before reverting to trend five years later. In addition, underlying causes matter. Defaults driven by aggregate demand shocks result in short-term contractions, whereas aggregate supply shocks lead to larger, more persistent losses.
Nicola Gennaioli, Alberto Martin, Stefano Rossi ....

United States , United Kingdom , Thomas Griesa , Journal Of The European Economic Association , Princeton University , Empirical Research On Sovereign Debt , Journal Of International Money , Journal Of International Economics , Princeton University Press , Journal Of Development Economics , Financial Times , Canada Technical Report , Sovereign Defaults Hurt , Open Economies Review , Po Gourinchas , Ct Hsieh , Comprehensive Debt Standstill , Monetary Policy Matters , New United Kingdom Narrative , Fiscal Policy , Economic Growth , New Evidence , Great Depression , Interest Rates , Political Uncertainty , International Economics ,

How Russian banks anticipated and dealt with global financial sanctions

Matthieu Crozet, Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner
Politics affects the banking sector in many ways (e.g. Calomiris and Huber 2014). For example, governments in many countries direct commercial bank lending to specific sectors and/or stimulate lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (e.g. Brown and Dinc 2005). And during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many governments created emergency loan guarantee schemes that were covering and spurring their banks lending. In this column, we turn to another recent and striking episode of political impact, namely, the global financial sanctions on Russian banks with close ties to their domestic government that commenced in 2014 and were sequentially imposed on various banks during a five-year period. In general, economic sanctions become increasingly popular from 2010s, being mostly driven by the US to restrain politically unfavourable regimes (Felbermayr et al. 2021). While their effects at the firm level are well studied ....

Tverskaya Oblast , Bryanskaya Oblast , Yedinaya Rossiya , Global Sanctions Data , Politics Of Bank Failures , Mapping International Sanction Policies , Russian Bank Data , Princeton University , Bank Rossiya , Princeton University Press , Us Office Of Foreign Assets Control , Us Department Of The Treasury , Rossiya Bank , Foreign Assets Control , European Economic Review , Russian Sanctions , Comparative Economics , Bank Failures , Quarterly Journal , Political Origins , Banking Crises , Scarce Credit , Annual Reports , Global Sanctions Data Base , Bank Data , Deposit Insurance Participation ,

Wealth effect how great expectations middle class have changed politics banking crises | Political economy

Wealth effect how great expectations middle class have changed politics banking crises | Political economy
cambridge.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from cambridge.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.

New York , United States , Columbia University , United Kingdom , Nancy Bermeo , Georgec Pardee , Charlesw Calomiris , Helenn Pardee , Barry Eichengreen , University Of California , University Of Oxford , European Consortium For Political Research , Princeton University , Rokkan Prize , European Consortium , Political Science , Wealth Effect , Henry Kaufman Professor , Financial Institutions , Great Expectations , Policy Responses , Political Consequences , Banking Crises , Nineteenth Century , புதியது யார்க் , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் ,

Not all banking crises involve panics

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A banking crisis is often seen as a self-fulfulling prophecy: The expectation of bank failure makes it happen. Picture people lining up to withdraw their money during the Great Depression or customers making a run on Britain’s Northern Rock bank in 2007.
But a new paper co-authored by an MIT professor suggests we have been missing the bigger picture about banking crises. Yes, there are sometimes panics about banks that create self-reinforcing problems. But many banking crises are quieter: Even without customers panicking, banks can suffer losses serious enough to create subsequent economy-wide downturns.
“Panics are not needed for banking crises to have severe economic consequences,” says Emil Verner, the MIT professor who helped lead the study. “But when panics do occur, those tend to be the most severe episodes. Panics are an important amplification mechanism for banking crises, but not a necessary condition.” ....

United Kingdom , Matthew Baron , Wei Xiong , Emil Verner , Institute For New Economic , Cornell Center , Career Development Professor , Princeton University , Sloan School Of Management , International Settlements , Cornell University , Great Depression , Northern Rock , Development Professor , Crises Without Panics , Quarterly Journal , Social Sciences , New Economic , Banking Crises , Economic Downturns , ஒன்றுபட்டது கிஂக்டம் , மேத்யூ பரோன் , வெய் க்ஷ்ிொன் , எமில் வெர்னர் , நிறுவனம் க்கு புதியது பொருளாதார , கார்னெல் மையம் ,

The scarring effects of COVID-19 on the global economy | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Natalia Martín Fuentes, Isabella Moder 05 February 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the global economy and its potential scarring effects are thus difficult to predict. This column presents estimates of the long-term impact of past crises, suggesting that past epidemics and other exogenous shocks did not cause scarring effects, while the negative impact of financial crises on the long-term level of potential growth tends to be persistent. However, unlike previous exogenous shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply side of the economy through several channels and thus lead to a permanently lower level of potential output. ....

United States , United Kingdom , South Africa , San Francisco , New Brunswick , World Bank , District Of Columbia , Sierra Leone , J Le Roux , Federal Reserve Bank , International Finance Discussion Papers , World Bank See Dieppe , Organization Of The Petroleum Exporting Countries , Vienna Institute For International Economic , Petroleum Exporting Countries , Intangible Assets , Growth Performance , Research Reports , Vienna Institute , International Economic , Next Generation , Penn World , American Economic Review , Impulse Responses , Run Economic Consequences , Banking Crises ,