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Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021 ecb.europa.eu - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from ecb.europa.eu Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Using machine learning and big data to analyse the business cycle Prepared by Dominik Hirschbühl, Luca Onorante and Lorena Saiz 1 Introduction Policymakers take decisions in real time based on incomplete information about current economic conditions. Central banks and economic analysts largely rely on official statistics together with soft data and surveys, to assess the state of the economy. Although a wide range of high-quality conventional data is available, the datasets are released with lags ranging from a few days or weeks to several months after the reference period. For these reasons, central banks have been looking at ways to exploit timelier data and employ more sophisticated methods to enhance accuracy when forecasting metrics that are relevant for policymaking. ....
Economic Bulletin Overview At its monetary policy meeting on 10 December 2020, the Governing Council decided to recalibrate its monetary policy instruments. While the rebound in economic activity in the third quarter was stronger than expected and the prospects for the roll-out of vaccines are encouraging, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to pose serious risks to public health and to the euro area and global economies. The resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the associated containment measures are significantly restricting euro area economic activity, which is expected to have contracted in the fourth quarter of 2020. While activity in the manufacturing sector continues to hold up well, services activity is being severely curbed by the increase in infection rates and the new restrictions on social interaction and mobility. Inflation remains very low in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets. Overall, the incoming data and t ....