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Stock markets are frothy. The S&P/TSX composite index was up 18% from Nov. 2, 2020 to Feb. 12, 2021. Over the same period, the S&P 500 rose 19%. Bitcoin has breached US$50,000. Driving the market are investors who are both eager to get in on deals and fearful of missing out. As a measure of enthusiasm for stocks, the U.S. cyclically adjusted price earnings index is about 40% over its two-decade average implying a dismal expected return of about 0.3% per year. But when it comes to equities, fear of being left behind trumps fear of losses. The traditional move when stocks seem too expensive is to shuffle into bonds. Ten-year Government of Canada bonds recently paid 1.0%. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.2% on Feb. 12, the result of selloffs and a steepening yield curve. Thirty-year Treasury yields hit 2.0% the same day the highest since February 2020. The five-year to 30-year spread was 152 basis points, the highest since 2015. ....
Andrew Allentuck As 2021 opened, bond yield curves steepened on Jan. 6, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit 1% for first time since March of last year. The economy may feel as if it’s beginning a cyclical recovery, but there are several key differences between a recovey and what’s unfolding now. Ordinary consumer spending has been deferred while ultra-low interest rates have supported purchases of houses and durable goods. The unemployment rate is high (8.6% as of Dec. 31) and consumer debt has soared. Will bond prices rise, hold or stumble in 2021? Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with CIBC, said the outlook is grim. “Government bond yields will be low, but they will climb. Reflecting recovery, the yield curve will steepen.” He added that the Bank of Canada is likely to reduce quantitative easing. ....