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Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley :: The Market Oracle ::


In 2021, China’s economic momentum will drive global economic prospects. But new trade wars could derail global recovery, again.
In the 1st quarter of the ongoing year, China’s GDP rose to a record 18.3% year-on-year. Despite the base effect, due to the pandemic plunge a year ago, the performance reflects strong momentum. In April, China’s economy continued to boom, with strong exports and rising business confidence supporting the recovery.
U.S. economic growth accelerated in the 1st quarter, thanks to a rush of consumer spending. The GDP expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate; the second-largest since 2003. But it missed the estimates by 0.3 percent. Moreover, it was fueled by two rounds of huge stimulus payments, ultra-low interest rates and historical debt-taking. ....

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China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 :: The Market Oracle ::


China’s 1st quarter record performance will accelerate momentum in China and support recovery in the US and global economic prospects – as long as unwarranted geopolitical tensions remain in check.
A year ago, China’s first quarter plunge was -6.8 percent, due to the pandemic effect. In the West, it was widely seen as the “end of China s growth story.”
Instead, in early February 2020 I predicted a turnaround in the increase of new virus cases in China, with the beginning of the economic rebound in the second quarter. Following the 6.5 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2020, the GDP rose to a record 18.3 percent year-on-year in the past quarter. ....

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