It is no secret that Kentucky Derby favorites this time of year tend not to win on the big day. It does not bode well for Life Is Good that 40 of the last 41 top choices on New Year’s Day failed on the first Saturday in May or September.
At this time last year, Authentic was 16-1 at William Hill Nevada. That was a big drop from the 65-1 at which he closed in the first pool of the Churchill Downs pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager. A win in the Sham last January changed everything. And then it changed all over again with the pandemic. Using that history now should come with a warning label.