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"Scary" Stocks Go Up Most of The Time


“Scary” Stocks Go Up Most of The Time
 
Even a quick perusal of a few investing references or media articles will leave you with the clear impression that stocks are “scary” and bonds are “safe”.  That seems to be the conventional wisdom.
But the conventional wisdom is predicated on the misleading idea that routine volatility equals risk.  And because stocks have higher routine volatility than bonds, stocks must be scary.  However, it turns out that routine volatility tells us remarkably little about our likely long-term outcomes when investing in these two assets.
For example, in my early February post, I wrote about the chances of losing inflation-adjusted money over various time periods, when invested in stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) versus bonds (as represented by the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond).  These two graphs tell the tale using Aswath Damodaran data going back to 1928. ....

United States , Aswath Damodaran , Year Treasury Bond , Fisher Investments , Year Basis , Darkest Before , Whilei Ve , Mindfully Investing , Fisher Investment , Exchange Traded Funds , Mo Ney , Stock Market , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் , ஆண்டு கருவூலம் பத்திரம் , மீனவர் முதலீடுகள் , ஆண்டு அடிப்படையில் , இருண்ட முன் , மனதுடன் முதலீடு , மீனவர் முதலீடு , பரிமாற்றம் வர்த்தகம் செய்யப்பட்டது நிதி , ஸ்டாக் சந்தை ,

The Mysteries of Volatility and Risk


The Mysteries of Volatility and Risk
By Karl Steiner
I don’t often write about “volatility” here at Mindfully Investing because mindful investors focus on long-term returns more than the routine ups and downs of the markets.  The standard deviation of return sequences is the most common measure of routine volatility for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes.  But as I explained in a previous post, standard deviation is actually a poor measure of the potential for a 
permanent loss, which is the risk that matters most to real-life investors.  A permanent loss is when your invested money is not available at the time you expected to spend it, such as when retirement begins. ....

Karl Steiner , Mindfully Investing , More Volatility Means Higher Potential , More Volatility Means Severe Potential , Volatility Are , Portfolio Visualizer , Although Portfolio Visualizer , Sortino Ratio , Exchange Traded Funds , Mo Ney , Stock Market , கார்ல் ஸ்டீனர் , மனதுடன் முதலீடு , போர்ட்‌ஃபோலீயோ காட்சிப்படுத்தல் , பரிமாற்றம் வர்த்தகம் செய்யப்பட்டது நிதி , ஸ்டாக் சந்தை ,

Ranking The Historical Returns of Asset Classes


Ranking The Historical Returns of Asset Classes
By Karl Steiner
In January of 2019 and 2020, I published year-in-review posts on the returns performance of various asset classes.  But I have to say, I found those posts distinctly unsatisfying.  For example, in 2020, U.S. large-cap growth stocks were the best performer of any asset class with a remarkable total annual return of 40%.  The next best performers, were U.S. small-cap growth stocks (35%), mid-cap growth stocks (34%), U.S. micro-cap stocks (25.5%), gold (25%), and the total U.S. stock market (21%).
But is this information useful?  Because mindful investors are long-term investors, I certainly wouldn’t replace my moderately diversified all-stock portfolio with concentrated bets on U.S. growth stocks or gold because of last year’s results.  On the contrary, mindful investors know that the relative performance of asset classes will almost always ebb and flow over time.  And history has shown that  ....

Karl Steiner , Aswath Damodaran , Robert Shiller , Callan Institute , Ranks Come , Time In Top Half , Portfolio Visualizer , Mindfully Investing , Exchange Traded Funds , Mo Ney , Stock Market , கார்ல் ஸ்டீனர் , ராபர்ட் ஷில்லர் , காலன் நிறுவனம் , அணிகளில் வாருங்கள் , நேரம் இல் மேல் பாதி , போர்ட்‌ஃபோலீயோ காட்சிப்படுத்தல் , மனதுடன் முதலீடு , பரிமாற்றம் வர்த்தகம் செய்யப்பட்டது நிதி , ஸ்டாக் சந்தை ,