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Although many headlines focus on a declining farm income in 2021, the net farm income outlook is still well-above average and offers a positive story for 2021, says Carrie Litkowski, economist at USDA’s Economic Research Service of the USDA. USDA currently expects net cash income to finish 2020 at $136.2 billion, but to fall to $128.3 billion in 2021. USDA expects net farm income, which includes the value of inventory changes, to decrease $9.8 billion (8.%1) to $111.4 billion in 2021. Despite this decline, 2021 net farm income would still be 21% above its 2000-19 average of $92.1 billion. While speaking at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 19, Litkowski outlines that government payments are forecast to have more than doubled in 2020, to a record level of $46 billion. This increase was due in large part to supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments to farmers for COVID-19 relief. In 2021 government payments are forecast to decline 45% in nominal dollar ....
Overall, meat exports are important across all sectors leading to forecasted higher prices. Despite a challenging 2020, the livestock industry was actually able to pivot and turn things around, ramp things up and get near pre-COVID levels toward the end of the year. Heading into 2021, total red meat and poultry production is forecast to increase 1% and higher prices are ahead, according to the latest outlooks presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 18 and 19. “In 2021, livestock and poultry sectors will face additional pressure in the form of higher forecast feed costs, but faced with an expected more stable demand pattern, livestock and poultry prices should average above 2020,” shares USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer. “Economic growth and support from an increasingly important export component will support higher livestock and poultry prices in 2021.” ....