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中印軍力對比 矛盾難解 勝負難分

中印邊境暫時降溫,但根源問題未解。雙方在邊境多處存在嚴重爭議,衝突的風險不易消除。中共軍隊可能從未把印度軍隊放在眼裡,最多僅列為次要假想敵,印度則把中共軍隊視為最大對手。中共若對戰印度,並無獲勝把握,又擔心腹背受敵;印度同樣不願冒險。 特殊. ....

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Balloon Juice | The Real Purpose of the Leak of the Zarif Interview Tape: Dirty Up John Kerry


Cole asked what the takeaways are from 
The New York Times reporting on a leaked tape of an interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. As I put in a comment in that post, there are four. I’m going to copy and paste them below, but then I want to really focus on the fourth one because I think that’s the real tell.
There are three possible leakers of the tape: Israel, Russia, or Iran’s Quds Force. All three don’t want the nuclear deal back on the table for different reasons, though some of them overlap. In the case of Israel, Bibi is desperate to maintain a foreign threat that only he can safely lead Israel against. And he definitely does not want Iran to be incentivized to open up to the west, which will have profound impacts on Iranian society, economy, and ultimately politics. Without Iran, Israel has no foreign threat for Bibi to rail against as an existential problem that requires his experienced leadership to survive. Russia doesn’t want the deal because ....

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