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The Worrisome 1999 Vibe To Markets


by Tyler Durden
Friday, Apr 23, 2021 - 04:20 PM
For equity markets, the parallels between current conditions and those of 1999 are striking and worrisome.
The investor mood in markets has been in ebullient territory since last November, when high-efficacy vaccine news lifted spirits as a budding light at the end of the tragic pandemic tunnel.
That is the signal from Citigroup’s gauge of investor sentiment - the Panic/Euphoria Model - which takes into account factors including the amount of investor positions anticipating a fall in stocks, the level of funds borrowed to purchase securities and commodity price futures.
The last time we saw such an upbeat zeitgeist that did not coincide with an immediate equity market correction was in 1999 when the dotcom bubble was in full bloom. ....

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8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model :: The Market Oracle ::


Prior model extremes occurred in March 2000 and October 2007
Elliott Wave International has been providing market analysis for more than four decades which includes many bull/bear market cycles.
That said, the public s current market mindset especially among inexperienced investors is a reminder of the extremes surrounding the 2000 market top, and a few others.
For example, a February 27 MarketWatch headline said:
A new wave of fearless retail investors is ready to pour $170 billion into stocks .
Also, according to an early February Deutsche Bank survey of online brokerage users, 61% are under 34 years of age and 45% are in their first year of investing. ....

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Hedge funds are getting crushed by the worst short squeeze in a quarter century


 
Hedge funds that bet against GameStop and other stocks have been crushed by the Reddit army and they re infecting the rest of Wall Street.
The most heavily shorted stocks have nearly doubled in value over the last three months, according to Goldman Sachs. Those staggering gains created distress for short-sellers, setting off a negative spiral in the broader markets.
The past 25 years have witnessed a number of sharp short squeezes in the U.S. equity market, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note published Monday, but none as extreme as has occurred recently.
For context, the most heavily shorted stocks with market values above US$1 billion rose by a more modest 77% during the second quarter of last year. The current short squeeze also exceeds the 56% rally for those stocks toward the end of the Great Recession and similar ones during the dotcom bubble. ....

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