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History may not repeat, but it definitely rhymes! Looking at the macro numbers and market data, today s forward PE of global equities at 20x is very close to that of 2003-04 levels of 17x. The rally of 2003 was led by smallcaps, cyclicals, commodities, accompanied by a macro environment of rising inflation and cheap credit. Sounds familiar? Read more about this trend mirroring; Raamdeo Agrawal’s take on cyclicals; Nilesh Shah’s unlock theme and much more in this weekend’s edition of ‘Long & Short of Markets’. Déjà vu of ‘04? Only Fed is not rhyming! Today’s markets and macro-economic data have a lot of similarities to the rally of 2003-04, finds Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. However, the rally saw a pause in 2004. The only difference here is that the Fed was hawkish in ‘04, rising interest rates and today the central bank is at least 2 years away from this policy stance. Early 2004 did mark a midway point between the end of easing rates and th ....
How do you think the second wave of Covid can impact financial stocks? Undoubtedly, there are certain pockets in financial services like microfinance, commercial vehicle financing, unsecured personal loans, etc, which will get impacted far more adversely because of the second wave. One interesting observation from the last nine months is that banks have started providing for Covid-related costs in provisions. This has ensured that there is a reasonable built up of provisions in their balance sheets. So the balance sheets will be relatively better in terms of secured loans, auto loans, housing loans and large company loans. Do you see more room for growth in IT and pharma? ....