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The aftermath of sovereign debt crises | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal


Rui Esteves, Seán Kenny, Jason Lennard 20 July 2021
There is little consensus on the macroeconomic impacts of sovereign debt crises, despite the regularity of such events. This column quantifies the aggregate costs of defaults using a narrative approach on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. It estimates significant and persistent negative effects of debt crises starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3%, before reverting to trend five years later. In addition, underlying causes matter. Defaults driven by aggregate demand shocks result in short-term contractions, whereas aggregate supply shocks lead to larger, more persistent losses. 
Nicola Gennaioli, Alberto Martin, Stefano Rossi ....

United States , United Kingdom , Thomas Griesa , Journal Of The European Economic Association , Princeton University , Empirical Research On Sovereign Debt , Journal Of International Money , Journal Of International Economics , Princeton University Press , Journal Of Development Economics , Financial Times , Canada Technical Report , Sovereign Defaults Hurt , Open Economies Review , Po Gourinchas , Ct Hsieh , Comprehensive Debt Standstill , Monetary Policy Matters , New United Kingdom Narrative , Fiscal Policy , Economic Growth , New Evidence , Great Depression , Interest Rates , Political Uncertainty , International Economics ,

Carmen M. Reinhart


Vice President and World Bank Group Chief Economist
Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department.
Reinhart’s areas of expertise are in international finance, and macroeconomics. Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. She has published extensively on capital flows, exchange rate policy, banking and sovereign debt crises, and contagion.
She comes to this position on public service leave from Harvard Kennedy School where she is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System. Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics and Director of the Cente ....

New York , United States , Columbia University , Paula Samuelson , Thomson Reuter , Kenneths Rogoff , King Juan Carlos , Carmenm Reinhart , Bear Stearns , Harvard Kennedy School , Federal Reserve Bank , International Monetary Fund , University Of Maryland , Bank Development Economics Department , Research Department , International Economics , Economist Of The World Bank Group , Peterson Institute For International Economics , Vice President , Chief Economist , World Bank , Development Economics , International Financial , Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow , Peterson Institute , Advisory Panel ,