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Churchill Real Estate’s Justin Ehrlich and Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks When Howard Marks’ Oaktree Capital set out to raise billions of dollars targeting troubled debt last spring, loan defaults seemed inevitable. Companies were teetering, people were hunkered inside and travel had come to a halt. “The firewood had been stacked,” Oaktree wrote in its presentation to investors. And the coronavirus was the lighter. Billions of dollars were raised at a record rate eyeing distress opportunities. Marks, whose memos are closely read by Warren Buffett, saw the flames of distress burn quickly. Within a few months, the Federal Reserve’s massive buying spree, combined with government stimulus, had squelched distress opportunities in real estate and elsewhere. ....
Churchill founders Justin Ehrlich and Sorabh Maheshwari. (Churchill) Churchill Real Estate is known in New York City for betting on distress. Over the past few years, the firm has snapped up troubled loans from overeager or desperate developers that have ended up in hot water. But the firm is increasingly targeting a more secure product: single-family home loans. And recently, it took a big step in that direction thanks to a direct equity investment from Redwood Trust, a publicly traded REIT that focuses on lending in that sector. Churchill co-founder Sorabh Maheshwari declined to disclose the amount of the investment. But he said the deal will provide the firm with the funds it needs to expand into new markets such as South Florida, California and possibly Texas. (It already has offices in New York City and Charlotte, North Carolina.) It also plans to expand its single-family rental business. ....
From left: Thor Equities’ 590 Fifth Avenue, the Mark Hotel and Wonder Works’ Vitre Churchill Real Estate’s Justin Ehrlich has seen a lot during his time as a developer and lender in New York. He witnessed the collapse of the real estate market during the 2008 financial crisis, followed by the mad rush to build luxury condo towers in some of Manhattan’s swankiest neighborhoods. But nothing compares to the past nine months, he said. “It’s not normal,” Ehrlich noted. “It’s the worst I’ve ever seen.” He pointed to an unusual rise in Uniform Commercial Code foreclosures by mezzanine lenders, which he sees as a canary in the coal mine for a mound of distress expected to hit the market in the next year. While judicial foreclosures are still banned under an emergency order by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, UCC foreclosures on some high-stakes projects have been moving ahead in recent months since they can bypass state courts. ....