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When will we reach herd immunity? Experts answer when California and the US could reach threshold


Roadblock no. 1 to herd immunity: COVID-19 variants
First of all, let s talk about the variants.
Viruses mutate constantly, so most mutations do nothing, said Wachter. What we re seeing now with the U.K., the Brazilian and the South African variant is interesting, because it shows that variants can change in all sorts of ways. They can make (viruses) more infectious, they can make them more serious meaning equally infectious, but if you happen to get it you re likely to get sicker and/or they can make them resistant to immunity.
Any or all of those things are concerning because they make herd immunity harder to attain. Take the U.K. variant, which is said to be about 50% more infectious than last year s predominant strain. That means you d need to vaccinate more people to really curb its spread. Variants that are resistant to immunity would provide an even bigger challenge and force a real re-tinkering of the vaccine. ....

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