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Asian Data on the soft side


6/30/2021 4:05:15 AM GMT
The overnight session was another sideways in Seattle sleeper for most asset classes as even equities struggled to maintain upward momentum. US yields edged slightly lower; gold fell while oil rallied but remained confined in pre-OPEC+ noisy range-trading and industrial metals did much the same. The US Dollar ground higher as the forex market continues to signal its concern about the impact of the delta variant globally and its lingering post-FOMC taper concerns.
More hawkish rhetoric from another Fed official hit the wires late in the session. But Wallers comments that tapering and tightening expectations might occur sooner had little effect. Financial markets, generally, seem to be settling in for the global manufacturing PMI dump tomorrow and the US employment data on Friday. Adding to the apathy is the end of the month and the quarter ending today, which usually sees quite a few rebalancing random price movements in New York across asset classe ....

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Time to stop drinking the 'Kool-Aid'?


1/22/2021 8:50:37 AM GMT
The question we have is whether markets are still too positive? The virus keeps spreading, data is sliding, and mutant variants may be immune to the vaccine.  As we end the week, we have to hope that the stimulus packages keep working and trust in the science!
We still feel that we have seen the peak of optimism to start the year and that risk sentiment should pull back to match the deteriorating virus situation and disappointing vaccine roll out.
After strong New Zealand CPI this morning NZD now has a good story for further strength which supports the bullish technical indicators. Over the coming months an important question will be which central banks begin to exit the extreme monetary measures first. So far RBNZ looks like the front runner given New Zealand’s firm control of the virus and increasing inflation. ....

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