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This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Signals Froth
Chart in Focus
mcoscillator.com
Jan. 7: We are seeing some wild numbers for Nasdaq share volume lately, much bigger than anything in recent years. This points to a speculative blowoff underway.
For many years, analysts have looked at the ratio of Nasdaq to NYSE volume as an indicator of tops and bottoms for stock prices. [Based on] a 10-day simple moving average of that daily ratio, the current reading is the highest since 2001, when the stock market was in the process of violently unwinding the 2000 internet bubble peak. Lesser peaks in this 10-day moving average have been associated with meaningful price tops. This reading is in a whole separate category.