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Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Rise in US Treasury Yields May Not Help Greenback; April NFP Due

Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Rise in US Treasury Yields May Not Help Greenback; April NFP Due
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Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral
The drop in the US Dollar has occurred even as US Treasury yields have stabilized (if not turned higher), suggesting that rising inflation expectations – not real US yields – are behind the move, which has historically been bad for the greenback.
The main economic event of the week will be the April US non-farm payrolls report due out on Friday, May 7.
According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the US Dollar has a mixed bias heading into the first week of May. ....

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May 2021 Economic Forecast - Significant Bump

Econintersect s Economic Index forecast sees a bump in the economic rate of growth at the Main Street level driven by government spending - and employment continues to accelerate.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
Economic year-over-year growth is about to skyrocket as the data is being compared to the country s lockdown and recession last year - but do not confuse yourself as the underlying rate of growth is not exceeding pre-pandemic levels in most areas.
A recession ends when the economy begins to recover - and the economy is definitely recovering. This may be the shortest recession ever at 2 to 3 months. HOWEVER, the pandemic is not over and the coronavirus will decide when it wants to release the economy from its grip. At this point, the coronavirus is in control of the economy and all forecasts are simple guesses. ....

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February 2021 Economic Forecast - Modest Improvement Predicted

Econintersect s Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a marginally stronger economy in February. The coronavirus daily totals are declining - but the leaders at the CDC are worried that the South African / Brazilian variant may explode in February which would heavily impact the economy.
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Analyst Summary of this Economic Forecast
In the case of our forecasting model, it was not designed to accurately forecast very swift movements - as our model averages to remove noise. That means the relative decline of the forecast index due to the coronavirus pandemic is understated as the decline was swift and the beginning of the recovery was swift. Analyzing the economic data, the real decline during the pandemic lockdown was much deeper than ....

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Analysis: State and city cutbacks stifle broader U.S. economic recovery

Analysis: State and city cutbacks stifle broader U.S. economic recovery
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State and local governments are exerting the biggest drag on the U.S. economy in more than a decade as they eliminate jobs and cut spending in the wake of the pandemic, underscoring President Joe Biden s push to extend aid to make up for lost tax revenue.
Such cutbacks have contributed to a slowdown in the economy for three straight quarters, marking the longest taper since the fiscal crisis that persisted from 2009 to 2012, according to preliminary data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday, Jan. 28. ....

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