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Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, Mahvash S. Qureshi
Non-financial corporations in emerging market economies (EMEs) increasingly rely on foreign currency debt for financing. Since the global crisis of 2008, the amount of dollar-denominated debt of EME corporations has quadrupled.
1 Research has shown that interest rate differentials between EMEs and the US have contributed significantly to this phenomenon (Bruno and Shin 2017). In essence, EME corporations prefer to borrow in foreign currency when there is a ‘carry’, meaning foreign interest rates are low relative to domestic interest rates. This carry trade borrowing leaves the firms exposed to sudden stops in capital flows and associated currency depreciations (Bruno and Shin 2020). More broadly, the accumulation of external debt on private balance sheets can lead or contribute to currency depreciation spirals and thereby poses risks for EME growth and financial stability (Acharya et al. 2015, Du and Schreger 2017). These i
Jennifer Castle, David Hendry
Three stylised structural changes have been underway since the end of 1980s. First, the Phillips curve flattened. Figure 1 reports rolling estimates of the slope of the Phillips curve based on a panel of six advanced economies. The large swings in output and unemployment since the Global Crisis put the debate on the ‘elusive’ Phillips curve under the spotlight, as a key ingredient to the ‘missing deflation’ and ‘missing inflation’ puzzles (Hall 2013, Coibion and Gorodnichenko 2013, Constancio 2015, Williams 2010 among many others). Yet the flattening was already well underway when the Global Crisis hit – it is widely acknowledged that it dates back to the end of the 1980s (Blanchard 2016, Del Negro et al. 2020).