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Rui Esteves, Seán Kenny, Jason Lennard 20 July 2021 There is little consensus on the macroeconomic impacts of sovereign debt crises, despite the regularity of such events. This column quantifies the aggregate costs of defaults using a narrative approach on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. It estimates significant and persistent negative effects of debt crises starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3%, before reverting to trend five years later. In addition, underlying causes matter. Defaults driven by aggregate demand shocks result in short-term contractions, whereas aggregate supply shocks lead to larger, more persistent losses. Nicola Gennaioli, Alberto Martin, Stefano Rossi ....
Guido Tabellini The Covid-19 pandemic has imposed significant economic hardships on affected economies. The aggregate effects on national incomes have been significant. Unemployment in the US rose from 3.5% in February 2020, just before the impact of the pandemic, to 14.7% by April 2020. Relative to a year ago, second-quarter GDP in the US dropped by 9.0%; in the euro area, the fall was 14.6%. Worldwide, the modal growth rate of GDP fell more than 10 percentage points in the first half of 2020 relative to the most recent IMF forecast (Furceri et al. 2021). In response to the deep pandemic recession, national governments and the EU have responded with monetary and fiscal policies meant to stimulate their economies. Recently, President Biden proposed, and Congress approved, a $1.9 trillion debt-financed increase in national spending known as the American Rescue Plan (ARP). The plan includes $320 billion in assistance for state and local governments to offset pandemic-induc ....