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Papers by Fédéric Holm-Hadulla

Papers by Fédéric Holm-Hadulla
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United States , Baden Wüberg , Fiscal Policies Division , European Central Bank , Monetary Policy Strategy Division , Ifo Institute , Journal Of International Money , Monetary Policy , Oxford University Press , Monetary Analysis Division , Oxford University , Directorate General Monetary Policy , European Central , Directorate General Economics , Doctoral Candidate , Best Paper Awards , Euro Area Sovereign Bond , International Money , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் , நிதி பாலிஸீஸ் பிரிவு , ஐரோப்பிய மைய வங்கி , பண பாலிஸீ மூலோபாயம் பிரிவு , இபோ நிறுவனம் , இதழ் ஆஃப் சர்வதேச பணம் , பண பாலிஸீ , ஆக்ஸ்ஃபர்ட் பல்கலைக்கழகம் ப்ரெஸ் ,

The aftermath of sovereign debt crises | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Rui Esteves, Seán Kenny, Jason Lennard 20 July 2021
There is little consensus on the macroeconomic impacts of sovereign debt crises, despite the regularity of such events. This column quantifies the aggregate costs of defaults using a narrative approach on a large panel of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. It estimates significant and persistent negative effects of debt crises starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3%, before reverting to trend five years later. In addition, underlying causes matter. Defaults driven by aggregate demand shocks result in short-term contractions, whereas aggregate supply shocks lead to larger, more persistent losses.
Nicola Gennaioli, Alberto Martin, Stefano Rossi ....

United States , United Kingdom , Thomas Griesa , Journal Of The European Economic Association , Princeton University , Empirical Research On Sovereign Debt , Journal Of International Money , Journal Of International Economics , Princeton University Press , Journal Of Development Economics , Financial Times , Canada Technical Report , Sovereign Defaults Hurt , Open Economies Review , Po Gourinchas , Ct Hsieh , Comprehensive Debt Standstill , Monetary Policy Matters , New United Kingdom Narrative , Fiscal Policy , Economic Growth , New Evidence , Great Depression , Interest Rates , Political Uncertainty , International Economics ,

Monetary policy and the exchange rate under fiscal distress

Laurence Ball, Gita Gopinath, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra, Antonio Spilimbergo
The Covid-19 crisis has increased public debt to unprecedented levels. Yet falling demand and lower commodity prices have reduced inflation rates globally. But in recent months, inflationary pressures have re-emerged, driven by base effects, supply bottlenecks, and the recovery in demand – in some cases boosted by fiscal stimuli (Ball et al. 2021). While many advanced economies maintain a very accommodative policy stance, some central banks in emerging market economies are reversing the interest rates cuts of last year, to bring inflation back on target.
The question is how effective these moves will be. Standard open economy models predict that a higher interest rate will lift the exchange rate. A stronger currency, in turn, will reduce import prices and help to bring down domestic inflation. For emerging market economies, however, the empirical evidence does not support this prediction ( ....

United States , Swiss National Bank , Exchange Rate Response To Monetary Policy Innovations , Georgetown Journal Of International Law , International Settlements , Journal Of International Money , Globalization Institute Working Paper , Della Corte , Inflation Targeting , Economic Report , External Debt , Doomed Quest , Georgetown Journal , International Law , Exchange Rate Response , Monetary Policy , American Economic Journal , International Money , ஒன்றுபட்டது மாநிலங்களில் , சுவிஸ் தேசிய வங்கி , ஜார்ஜ்டவுன் இதழ் ஆஃப் சர்வதேச சட்டம் , சர்வதேச குடியேற்றங்கள் , இதழ் ஆஃப் சர்வதேச பணம் , உலகமயமாக்கல் நிறுவனம் வேலை காகிதம் , டெல்லா கோர்டே , பொருளாதார அறிக்கை ,

The changing nature of capital flows | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay, Silvia Sgherri
Gyrations in capital flows resurfaced in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, and most emerging market economies (EMEs) saw significant outflows in the immediate aftermath of the shock (Corsetti and Marin 2020). Yet, financial turmoil proved to be short lived. Capital flows rebounded later in 2020, although not all EMEs benefitted equally. What might explain the resilience of EMEs to the shock and the nuanced rebound in flows this time around? A new report by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS 2021) looks at some key trends and the underlying drivers of capital flows since the Global Crisis of 2007-09, including the related policy trade-offs and tools. The report builds on new empirical analyses, an extensive literature review, a survey of central banks, and roundtable discussions with academics and market participants. ....

Philip Wooldridge , Gerardo Garcia , International Monetary Fund , Institute Of International Finance Spring Membership Meeting , Committee On Global Financial System , International Settlements , Journal Of International Money , Global Financial System , Global Crisis , Great Moderation , Global Financial , Sustainable Capital Flows , New World , International Finance Spring Membership Meeting , Probabilistic Approach , Identifying Ultimate , Paper Series , Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , Jackson Hole , International Monetary , International Money , Development Economics , ஜெரார்டோ கார்சியா , சர்வதேச பண நிதி , சர்வதேச குடியேற்றங்கள் , இதழ் ஆஃப் சர்வதேச பணம் ,

Papers by Michael Ehrmann

Abstract
Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions of firms of several size classes are analysed, with the finding of considerable asymmetry. As predicted by theory, small firms are affected more strongly than large firms. To test whether these effects are reinforced when the economy is in a business cycle downturn, the paper employs a new estimation strategy: impulse response analysis conditional on Markov-switching regimes. The findings are supportive of the theoretical hypotheses: in a business cycle downturn, the distributional effects of monetary policy transmission are indeed reinforced. ....

United States , Albert Ando , Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , European Monetary Union , Ifo Survey Data In Business Cycle , Journal Of The European Economic Association , Central Bank , A Survey Of Theory , Bank Networks , Timing Of Central Bank Communication , Euro Exchange Rate , Journal Of International Money , Monetary Policy , European Union , Monetary Policy In Press Conferences , International Journal Of Central Banking , A Central Bank Communication Strategy , Neu Citizen , German Business Survey Data , Exchange Rate , International Comparison Of Policymaker Preferences , Central Bank Communication On Financial Stability , Central Bank Communication , International Financial Transmission , Federal Reserve , International Evidence On Forward Guidance ,