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Bond-Market Revolt Endangers India's Fragile Recovery

(Bloomberg) Bond traders are upsetting India’s efforts to pull the economy out of its worst recession since 1952.The government wants to sell a near record 12.1 trillion rupees ($167 billion) of bonds in the next fiscal year to support its spending program. Such supply is putting pressure on yields to rise, along with a global selloff in bonds. Yet central bank officials are reluctant to let the 10-year yield increase because of its importance as a benchmark rate for borrowing.The result is failed bond auctions, repeated interventions by the central bank and a growing sense of frustration by officials and bond investors alike. The central bank has said bond buyers should be sympathetic to government efforts to bolster the economy through keeping a lid on borrowing costs. As far as investors are concerned, the Reserve Bank of India needs to be much more transparent about its future bond purchases if it wants to restrain yields.The central bank appears to be losing the argument. ....

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Dealing with SA problems 'must involve repurposing the state and priorities'


By Jonathan Katzenellenbogen
This afternoon, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni will deliver a Budget that has taken on greater-than-usual significance. For the past few years, Mboweni has been calling for tough measures to be taken, but has failed to take these, owing to lack of wider political support within the African National Congress (ANC).
A government budget deficit of between 13 and 15 percent of GDP for the current fiscal year, projected by a number of economists, will be the largest in the country’s history.
Total government debt is now about 80 percent of GDP. The Treasury plan is for the debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at 95 percent by 2025/26. With feeble economic growth, these debt levels will open the economy to sudden adverse swings in confidence, and therefore potential financial crises. ....

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