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The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China is experiencing a serious ecological water scarcity problem in the context of climate warming and drying. There is an urgent need for practical adaptation measures to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and provide a scientific basis for urban water supply planning, water resource management, and policy formulation. Urban ecological water can maintain the structure and function of urban ecosystems, both as an environmental element and as a resource. Current research lacks quantitative analysis of the impact of regional meteorological factors on ecological water use at the small and medium scales. Based on the meteorological data and statistical data of water resources in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, this paper analyzed the trend of climate change and established an ecological climatic water model using gray correlation analysis, polynomial simulation, and singular spectrum analysis to predict the e

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