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But the big thing that controls the intensity of tornadoes and in some sense whether we ever get a tornado at all out of a tornado has to do with how the wind profile in atmosphere change, what we call the wind shear. and that may actually decrease in the future. what we have seen historically over the last 50 or 60 years has been an increase in the very ability of tornadoes occurring. we have fewer days per year now where tornadoes occur, but we have more big days that they occur. and we ve also seen evidence of increase of occurrence, not intensity, but in the mid south region. and do we know why that is? no, we don t. that is one of the really big questions. while the timing of it is, you know, tempting to say that it is ....
Plaquemines parish. i m concerned about grand isle. some of the warmest water on our planet, unled fuel to the highest octane that you can get. sometimes these smaller compact storms can provide more of a punch than some of the larger ones but we re going to watch this wind profile. at the 11:00 p.m. advisory we ll be able to share the track. but that puts the strongest winds on the eastern flank for areas such as new orleans up to baton rouge. let s hope on the western side, good hundred miles per hour, it stays away from lake charles, so many vulnerable homes with the tarp still on thousands of homes and people still in fema trailers. into areas of tp we could still have a tropical storm and it makes its way over west-central tennessee. we don t want any flooding there. that s west of nashville. tornado watches most likely will be posted by morning. ....
Let s talk about the winds. about 5:00, 6:00 in the morning it will be moving into grand isle and reaching the northern part of louisiana later in the afternoon. we re expected sustained winds at 130. you look at the wind profile, and we ve seen a little trend in the track, but we ll get a new one at 11:00, we re looking at some of the worse eyewall winds up towards baton rouge. the circulation is not the eye. it s much lower, but if we can keep it away from lake charles, that s some good news, too. it s going to be to have a tremendous amount of wind strength. it takes time for a category 4 to be downgraded. the computer models have been spot on. just a little slower with the european. 1:00 p.m. local time landfall maybe 2:00. give or take an hour. then you toss in the storm surge. ....
Katrina had a wind profile that was four to five times larger than this one. with the search and the levees breaking, it was obviously a mess. 1800 people lost their lives. these are the model differences. there s not much of a difference. 1:00 p.m. local time in the afternoon, the european model is a little slower but pretty much in the same location. as we get this information in from the hurricane hunters in the aircraft, we ll have a better idea to see if that trend continues eastward, which would put the strongest winds in new orleans. and again, the problem that we ve been talking about all day long is the force of this category 4. if it continues on this forecast and its forward movement, it s not going to lose its category 4 status right away. it s not as soon as it hits land, it suddenly goes down to a tropical storm. hour by hour, it will squeeze out tremendous amounts of rain, a foot to even two feet in some areas as it races across the tennessee valley. ....