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Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part II

We presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation in the first installment of this series. Using that framework, we identified 13 instances of stagflation in the United States since 1950 (Figure 1). Episodes vary in severity, but each posed unique challenges to monetary policymakers. In this second installment, we briefly review historical instances of stagflation and their accompanying monetary policy decisions. The distinctive experiences point to an economy whose structural drivers of growth have shifted over time, which underscores the idea that a policy enacted back in the 1970s may not have the same effect today as it did then. ....

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Let's Admit It: "Bidenomics" Has Failed

The 60-second TV spot begins with a series of brief shots: a lobster boat setting out just after dawn, a man exiting a taxi at a crowded downtown intersection, a farmer on his tractor, a boy on his bicycle. Accompanying the gauzy imagery is soothing dentist-office music and a confident male voice whose intonations suggest safety and comfort.“It’s morning again in America,” the narrator says. “Today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country’s history.” We are visually tra ....

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