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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A March Rate Cut Bites the Dust

It was a busy week for economic data, but Friday's employment report stole the show. Nonfarm payrolls rose 353K in January, almost double the consensus expectation. While we suspect the Federal Reserve will put more weight on the Employment Cost Index's soft reading on labor cost growth in Q4, the pickup in average hourly earnings and overall strength in hiring suggest the odds of a rate cut in March are quickly fading. ....

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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Almost Everything Coming Up Roses

Data released this week garnered further optimism that the economy can power through the Federal Reserve's efforts to corral inflation an endeavor the Fed could increasingly be construed as achieving. Economic activity ended the year on better footing than expected, and inflation continued its deceleration. ....

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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Consumers Just Keep Humming

As market participants continue to digest last week's slightly hotter-than-expected consumer price data, activity data released this week show underlying demand was still humming along in the final stretch of 2023. Retail sales surprised to the upside and industrial production rose in December. ....

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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Wait a Minute

The minutes from the FOMC's mid-December meeting suggest the committee aims to remain restrictive, though it acknowledges it may be cutting rates this year should recent progress on inflation continue. Despite market yearning for cuts, there was no large debate around when to start lowering rates. ....

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Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A Win for the Doves

As widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in a unanimous vote. The decision marked the third consecutive meeting that the Committee held policy steady. While the rate decision came as no surprise, this week's meeting shaped up to be one of the clearest messages yet that the torrid hiking cycle that began in March 2022 has come to an end. ....

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