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Ratings have them under water, the generic sort of republican party 36% view them as favorable, 4 3% unfavorable in contrast to democrats. is that sort of defying gravity that mitt romney is doing and not being tied down to his party, is that sustainable through the rest of this election? i think it may be. in some ways, he was also defying gravity in the other direction in that there are a lot of voters who were sort of on the fence but unhappy with president obama s performance. and there was sort of an initial lead in some of these polls in september that didn t sort of fit so i think he s close to kind of an equilibrium between those two. mark, a lot is made of obama s gender gap and winning the women s vote and shrunk over the past few weeks and considerably up among women but less is made of romney s gain among men up ten points to obama among men. ....
The last 2 weeks, even after the debate movement. and, you know, that s about in polling averages anything above that and you typically win. if that holds. he s in pretty good shape there. so if he s in good shape there, there s a good wchance t win the election and then the popular vote split and mitt romney maybe gets more popular votes overall but barack obama has a clear edge and wins the electoral college. how likely do you think that scenario is? i think it s possible to get a split but the imaginations have kind of run away with ourselves of how wide that is. we have looked at how the battleground state estimates add up to a vote total. i have done an estimate based on how many people voted in each state in 2008. if you look across the nine battlegrounds that most of us are focused on and the campaigns spending money, the difference, obama s a little bit ahead but ....
I am a sucker for traditions especially quirky traditions, the running of the bulls, the green jackets in the masters, the red wings where they throw octopus on the ice. when i grew up in massachusetts there s a group of old men who put on their bathing suits new year s day and jumping into the freezing cold atlantic ocean just because and i think it s great. in politics there s one quirky tradition that i really, really don t like. the electoral college. you know how it works. we don t have a national election for president, we have a bunch of individual state elections. wh win the right combination of states you can become president even if the majority of americans voted for the other. in 2008, bush was installed as president anyway thanks to 25 electoral votes from florida and five votes from the supreme court. it happened with benjamin ....
The difference between that and the national vote is less than 1% overall. we lose sight of the fact that most half the votes in the battleground states in florida, virginia and north carolina and a little bit of an advantage working obama s way. that could give him the election if, if, if those polling leads hold. mark, obama recently had an off the record discussion with the des moines register and some of that leaked out to the rest of us. but one thing he said that was really interesting is that latinos should i win a big reason will be because the republican nominee and party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country the latino community. if the turnout is over 9%, obama should win the lead among them is massive. do you think that turnout will be the thing to make the ....
I saw you shooting. now i know why. i have seen this piece you did. victoria, a certain clip in it, mo talks about an effort in maryland and other states to do away with the electoral college. could you explain a little bit about that? sure. it s called the national popular vote initiative and basically a compact to bind states to committing the electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote and not who won the vote in their particular state. once states have once enough states who cumulateively have 270 electoral college votes between them sign on to the compact, it goes in to effect. they have about 134 votes in their tally. so they hope by 2016 that they might actually be able to overcome the way that the electoral college works in america. something pretty important as people are looking at or speculating about the effects of the electoral college on this election. dvr, rewind and listen to it again. she s of course got it there but ....