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China’s prospects for 2024 look uncertain, as a year that opened free of COVID-19 lockdowns winds down without the dreamed of robust recovery for the world’s No. 2 economy. To counter a U.S.-led world order, China is pushing alternative visions for global security and development whose prospects depend partly on restoring its own economic vitality. Long-term, fundamental challenges lie ahead: a falling birthrate and aging population — India surpassed it as the world’s largest country in April — and Beijing s rivalry with the United States over technology, Taiwan and control of the high seas. Relations with the United States have warmed, but deep divides remain.

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