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Why Inflation Worries Won't Derail the Stock Rally Soon


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Rising inflation expectations aren’t likely to kill the stock rally. Here, the scene on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Wednesday.
NYSE
Inflation expectations have leapt recently amid the promise of more federal pandemic stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s reiteration of easy-money policies, but the stock rally that kicked off last spring appears primed to power through such concerns.
The 10-year break-even rate or the gap between yields on Treasuries and comparable Treasury inflation-protected securities jumped to just above 2% to start 2021 from just below that level and have risen sharply since early November. Since Jan. 5, just before the Georgia Senate runoff results showed the Democrats would take control of the Senate, Treasury yields have spiked. That’s because the Democrats’ plan for more fiscal spending to support the economy may cause some inflation. Market-implied 30-year break-even infl ....

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Why Investors Should Consider the Corporate Spending Trade


Dreamstime
Investors have been betting big on shares that can benefit from fiscal stimulus, such as consumer discretionary stocks. But the government isn’t the only one doing a lot of spending many companies are poised to spend the piles of cash they built during the pandemic.
As the pandemic swept the globe,
S&P 500
companies raised more than $2.5 trillion in 2020 through debt and equity issuances, the highest amount in two decades. Meanwhile, share buybacks and capital spending both fell significantly last year as companies faced an uncertain economy. That left firms with war chests to spend: Cash as a percent of total assets for the average S&P 500 company has been sitting at almost 8%, a record level. That’s up from roughly 6% to start 2020, according to Jefferies. ....

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Slipped but the Market Is Upbeat on More Stimulus


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The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with nominal losses. Investors, however, remain upbeat about the trajectory of the economy, based on the strength in value and small-cap stocks.
The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed Thursday, but beneath the surface, there was strength in the market.
The
S&P 500
slid 14.30 points, or 0.38%, to end at 3,795.54, and the
Nasdaq Composite
fell 16.31 points, or 0.12%, to close at 13,112.64. The biggest gainer in the S&P 500 was petroleum refiner
HollyFrontier
(ticker: HFC), with an 11% stock surge.
President-elect Joe Biden is expected to speak in the evening in detail about fiscal stimulus. Trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have already shored up consumers’ savings, and a few trillion dollars more would add to the pent-up demand that could be unleashed when Covid-19 vaccines are widely distributed. ....

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With Vaccines Rolling Out, Buy U.K. Stocks, Citi Says


A nurse prepares a dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
Anthony Devlin/Getty ImagesGetty Images
The U. K., hard hit by a particularly contagious form of Covid-19, stands to be a particular beneficiary as vaccines are distributed.
Citigroup
says the stock market there could offer better gains than investors can find elsewhere.
Investors expect billions of doses to be distributed worldwide in the coming year or so. That would eliminate the need for lockdowns and get people back to work. At the same time, central banks and governments around the world are pouring money into markets, ensuring that economies are ready to bounce back. ....

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