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The US has now recovered about 96% of its pandemic-era decline in output. A 10% surge for first-quarter GDP would have completed the economic rebound. ....
Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register/Getty Images The US economy will grow 8.1% in 2021 as the coronavirus threat fades for good, Morgan Stanley said. GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the first quarter, the bank s economists added. Unemployment will fall to 4.9% in 2021, the bank said, still above the rate from before the crisis. Morgan Stanley has lifted its forecasts for 2021 economic growth in the US, citing a collection of encouraging trends for its brighter outlook. Gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 8.1% on a fourth-quarter-by-fourth-quarter basis, up from 7.6%, the team led by Ellen Zentner said in a Tuesday note. Growth for 2022 was revised 0.1 percentage points lower to 2.8%. ....
Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times/Getty Images Weaker-than-expected global economic growth could hinder the US recovery, Fed researchers said. The CBO expects US GDP to grow 4.6% in 2021, but the chances of that fade on slower global growth. The Fed simulated 2021 growth 1 million times and found weak global growth almost guarantees US underperformance. The US economic recovery hinges a great deal on how the rest of the world rebounds, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. For the moment, the US is expected to fully recover from its virus-induced downturn by the end of the year. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects gross domestic product will expand by 4.6% in 2021, offsetting the 3.4% contraction seen in 2020. ....
Biden s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. Bank economists now project a lower US unemployment rate of 4.5%, down from 4.8%. Biden s $1,400 stimulus checks will cause a large spike in disposable income, they said. Goldman Sachs has turned even more optimistic on the outlook for the US economy this year under President-elect Joe Biden. In a weekend note to clients, economists at the bank raised their forecast for US GDP to 6.6% in 2021 from 6.4%. Goldman now expects a lower US unemployment rate of 4.5% at the end of 2021, down from 4.8%. The projected economic expansion will be fueled by a boost in disposable incomes and government spending, the bank said, as Biden s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan accentuates his intent to shore up the slumping US economy. ....