While some of the uncertainties which the global equity markets were facing have come down with indication by US fed that interest rates are not likely to inch upward. The valuation risk still remains, it would better to stay focussed on stocks where analyst score have gone up due to one or the other reasons. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.
There are some sectors which are able to face bears in a better way. The reason, the operating matrix of those sectors is such that rising interest rates and other economic headwinds have little impact on their working because they are taking care of a need which is very basic in nature and if spending has to be done on that, it cannot be postponed. Pharmaceutical companies come into that category. This is not to say that there was a phase of almost 7 years that pharma stocks became under-performers. That was a very different reason, most of which have been taken care of. So there is a good chance that this time pharma stock will be able to tackle bears in a much better way.
While the capex cycle has been moving well in sectors like railways, road and other infrastructure sectors for some years. In sectors like cement, chemicals, pharma which are driven by the private sector, indications of capital spending on adding capacities, what is commonly called private sector capex coming back are visible. One industry which benefits from this capex would be the capital goods sector, but one has to be very careful in choosing the stock as the word “capital goods stocks” is prone to getting misinterpreted.
Earning seasons not only helps in judging what is happening to individual companies but more importantly it helps gauge the undercurrent of the markets. When the street does not react with a sharp spike in price when a company announces better than expected results then it indicates lower liquidity and life could be tougher for bulls. If the market reacts to negative surprises or what is commonly called below estimate by any company with a minor cut in stock price, that means that liquidity is very high and the street gets into a mood of giving pardon. Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus which lists stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or "strong buy".
Though the total number of stocks which have seen a consistent improvement in their overall score have come down. As compared to a basket of around 15 to 18 stocks, overall numbers of stocks have come down to 10. It is an indication of volatile markets of the last four weeks showing its impact on the result of quantitative investing models. In one case, while the score has improved, overall recommendation remains as a “sell”. The stocks from sectors like new age platform companies, capital goods, have come to the list. The selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.