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Let s get some of the conversations you might have missed. Some new polling to begin this hour. Vice president, kamala harris, and former president, donald trump, are essentially tied in every sunbelt swing state. According to be a latest, fox news polling, harris leads trump by registered voters in arizona and two points in both georgia and nevada. Trump, meanwhile, leads by a single point in north carolina. All of those results, we should make clear, are within the margin of error. But there are some trendlines here. In previous fox polls conducted before president, joe biden, exited the race, trump led by five points in arizona and nevada and north carolina and by six in georgia. So, charlie, we apply all of the usual caveats, pools are just a snapshot in time, we are two months before the election, but the trendline ....
in missouri the battle of the two trump endorsed candidates called eric has been decided. and we seem to projects that missouri eric schmidt has won the republican nomination for senate, defeating the former governor eric greitens. and in washington state, the votes is still too early to call for tua publicans running for election who both voted to impeach donald trump. congresswoman jerry her rather butler s leading right now against trump endorsed candidate joe can t. and congressman dan newhouse is leading a tremendous candidate, lauren colp. steve kornacki with us all night, let s go over to the big board and see what s going on right now. i say you ve chosen to talk about arizona first. tell us what you are looking at. a bit of a potential surprise here in arizona, kerry lake, the republican backed by donald trump, former newscaster up there in arizona, had let in the polling in this race, and i think came in today as the favorite. you can see we got a lot of t ....
released right away in this first hour, all the votes that were received by about yesterday. that s basically what you are looking at here to start. so what was expected that vote would be the most favorable vote for karrin taylor robson so she needed to take the lead, she needed to build a little bit of a pad, because it was expected that the vote that was cast today, and then the final votes that will be kind of not till tomorrow, would be more favorable to kari lake. robson succeeded and getting a pad here. a pad of eight and a half points. it may well end up being enough to hold off lake. we are going to see some of the same day votes getting added here. like its number take up a little bit here. but robson came in today as the underdog. right now at 60% in, has a real shot at this. over the next couple hours, we re gonna see a trickle of the vote that was cast today get added to this. but that is basically gonna stop, and then maricopa county is the biggest one. he ....
They weren t breaking to republicans. a sure sign that this was going to be a different type election. the thing you and i talked about, and i know cornel mentioned it, was this idea of people that somewhat disapproved of biden were splitting their votes and not going overwhelming to republicans like they did against obama and like they did against trump and like they did against reagan and like they ve done against every president. and on election day, the democrats won the people that somewhat disapproved of the president. so, the data was there. the other thing bigger picture i ll say about the forecasters and modelers and too many of us get caught in this, is history is important. history is important, to understand history. but history is not determinative. and history in a disruptive moment like we ve had in the last four or five years is not a lot of use unless you look at it on the ground. it reminds me, the forecasters and modelers who kept repeating history, history, history, ....