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What Can We Learn From The Pandemic And The War About Supply Shocks, Inflation, And Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard, At The 21st BIS Annual Conference Central Banking After The Pandemic: Challenges Ahead, Bank For International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

<p><span>Policymakers and researchers have begun reassessing certain features of the economy and monetary policy in light of recent experience. After several decades in which supply was highly elastic and inflation was low and relatively stable, a series of supply shocks associated with the pandemic and Russia s war against Ukraine have contributed to high inflation, in combination with a very rapid recovery in demand. The experience with the pandemic and the war highlights the challenges for monetary policy in responding to a protracted series of adverse supply shocks. In addition, to the extent that the lower elasticity of supply we have seen recently could become more common due to challenges such as demographics, deglobalization, and climate change, it could herald a shift to an environment characterized by more volatile inflation compared with the preceding few decades.</span></p> ....

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CNN CNN Newsroom With Poppy Harlow and Jim Sciutto January 26, 2022 14:32:00

volatility appears to be the name of the game here. many experts believe that it could signal those changes could come as early as march. so let s bring in cnn economics and political commentator catherine rampel. we know this administration going back to last fall has been using whatever tools it can to tackle rising inflation and going after supply chain issues and congestions at u.s. ports. given what we are now, is a rate hike by the federal reserve the best tool and only remaining tool to really nip inflation in the bud. it is by definition the fed s job to deal with price stability. by congressional mandate among other things as well as obviously reputation, credibility. they have the tools available and the most powerful tools available to deal with this above trend inflation. so, yes, everyone is looking to the fed to see when are they going to start raising interest rates, when are they going to start shrinking their balance sheet. probably neither of those things ....

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RBI Working Paper Finds A Steady Decline In Trend Inflation In Recent Years


There has been a steady decline in trend inflation in India, the Reserve Bank of India noted in a Working Paper titled Measuring Trend Inflation in India . The Paper is authored by Harendra Kumar Behera and Michael Debabrata Patra. Central to the design and conduct of monetary policy is the concept of trend inflation, the level to which actual inflation outcomes are expected to converge after short run fluctuations from a variety of sources die out. The paper seeks to estimate trend inflation in India to find the answer to a question that goes to the root of flexible inflation targeting (FIT) - is the choice of the target for inflation consistent with its trend? ....

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