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Weekly Forecast, September 30, 2022: Market Rate Expectations Step Up

A rational extraction of market expectations from the US Treasury yield history since 1962 shows an upward shift this week. Read more here. ....

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Weekly Forecast, Sept. 9, 2022: Peak In 1-Month Forward Treasury Rates Steadies At 4.98%

The forward 1-month U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 4.98%, up 3 basis points from last week. Click here to read more about the weekly forecast. ....

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Weekly Forecast, Sept. 2, 2022: Peak In 1-Month Forward Treasury Rates Climbs To 4.95%

The peak In 1-month forward Treasury rates climbed to 4.95% by Friday in a delayed reaction to Chairman Powell's comments of the week before. ....

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2-Year/10-Year Treasury Spread Negative For 23rd Trading Day In A Row

We present the SAS Weekly Forecast as of August 5, 2022. Inverted Treasury Yields: Inverted now, 87.5% probability by February 3, 2023. ....

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2-Year/10-Year Spread Negative For 18th Trading Day In A Row

The focus is on the future probability of the recession-predicting inverted yield curve, probability of negative rates, and probability distribution of Treasury yields over the next decade. ....

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